João Almeida - Bota Lume

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Actually disagree he is not a punchy climber... Just watch some stage finishes on his first Giro and last year Poland. I think he just developed an extreme fear/obsession of not going over the red line unless he sees the finish line.

And as i explained 3 posts ago, that is only smart, to not go in the red until the very end. I agree he usually has a good sprint, but that is exactly because unlike his rivals, he hasn't wasted as much energy by the time they reach the finish. Looking back at the way he climbs even when he was riding for Evenepoel in 2020, it has always been steady climbing, pacing himself, coming back in his own pace, never responding to immediate attacks... If he did respond to attacks and accelerations, he would lose more time overall, and he would not win a sprint that easily when it came to it.

 

[noob]

It just proves how risk avoiding his riding is. Maybe it's the reason for his bad positioning and descending skills.

I am not saying he's not risk averse. I am also not saying he's not troubled by anxiety. He's said the latter himself so...

But I also believe that even if he wasn't he'd still benefit the most from riding like he does, at most times. Not always, but most times.

I don't see him suddenly turning into a different rider with completely different abilities. Like I've said before asking Almeida to follow wheel and attacks is like asking Remco to be a good sprint. It won't just automatically happen.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Not always, but most times.

I think one of the problems here is that Joao has not reached the level this year that we have come to expect of him from previous years. So all the assumptions ''why doesn't he do this, why is he riding like that, he should be able to do this better...'' should be seen in that context. I think for the moment he is mainly trying to limit his losses.

But indeed, not always but most of the times. If he were in the lead or on the podium, and he could expect an attack from a rider whose pace he can match, then obviously he should be vigil and ready to respond to an attack of that rider. If there is a 4k climb before the finish, and he is defending his place in GC, he should also make sure he is well placed and ready to stay close (enough) because there will not be enough time/distance to diesel his way back at his own pace. By the time he'd find his mojo, the climb would be over. So context is again important. But when a stage finishes with a 22k climb at 2500m altitude, i think he benefits greatly from not wasting energy and managing his effort.

 

[Pistolas]

I am not saying he's not risk averse. I am also not saying he's not troubled by anxiety. He's said the latter himself so...

But I also believe that even if he wasn't he'd still benefit the most from riding like he does, at most times. Not always, but most times.

I don't see him suddenly turning into a different rider with completely different abilities. Like I've said before asking Almeida to follow wheel and attacks is like asking Remco to be a good sprint. It won't just automatically happen.

He is turning into a different rider for sure, a very reliable....domestique. Would prefer a better break than sorry attitude. His nickname (botalume) seems more and more a distant reality.

 

[groogster]

Regarding Almeida’s positioning or lack of, I can see valuable arguments in both sides. It’s true that the way he paces himself and the decision he makes to not respond to a sudden change of pace benefits him in a longer climb like yesterday, the problem is that what he saves in terms of energy by not reacting immediately he will spend it when he is alone, exposed to the wind and not benefiting from the draft of the rider that he could be following in all those gradients that are below 7% steep.
Obviously being well positioned in the start of a climb like yesterday’s Sierra Nevada would imply him being closer and so with less distance to recover for the head of the race.
His positioning it’s also related with the form he has at any given moment, the better the form the better the positioning, and we can see that looking at some of his positioning in past races. The team he’s in also has a influence on that, atm he has nobody designated to him with that task and with the capability to always bring him well positioned inside the peloton.
All in all he didn’t have a great season, at least not as good as it was expected. Worse at itt and kind of equal in mountain stages. Despite that at the Giro he would probably ended up 3rd with that last itt stage for him to take it from Landa.
As for this Vuelta I never had any kind of expectations of him making top3, maybe a top5. He won’t very far from that top5 at the end of La Vuelta. Doing 2 GT I’n a season and having to recover from Covid-19 between them wouldn’t allow him to be in a type of form to contest for much better than he’s been doing.

 

[groogster]

He is turning into a different rider for sure, a very reliable....domestique. Would prefer a better break than sorry attitude. His nickname (botalume) seems more and more a distant reality.

Think you are being a little to harsh on him. He’s not at his best at the moment. As turning himself to domestique role at UAE, it won’t happen, he will still have a shot of leadership but will have to share the races with Ayuso and Pogacar, there are still many one day races, 1 week races and 3 GT per season.
Probably will focus again his main goal at the Giro and then being assigned to help Pogacar at TDF.
He just made 24 years so very young and IMO with much time to improve, working in what he has to improve. Pogacar, Ayuso, Evenepoel, Bernal are exceptions and not the benchmark for riders. The vast majority of GT Winners and GT podiums are achieved later.
Besides UAE, Jumbo, Ineos and Bora he would be undisputed leader at any other of the WT teams for 1GT and in the vast majority of them assigned to TDF as such.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He is turning into a different rider for sure, a very reliable....domestique. Would prefer a better break than sorry attitude. His nickname (botalume) seems more and more a distant reality.

I think people jumped to conclusions in his first 2 Giros. He came out of nowhere and had the pink jersey for nearly two weeks iirc, nobody expected that of him, and in an era of Evenepoel, Pogacar and Bernal, it was normal to think he was the next in line of superkids.

But the 2020 Giro had a rather weak field, it was between Kelderman, Hart and Hindley in the end. Not between Bernal, Roglic, Thomas (who crashed out early) Pogacar... Obviously, 2 years later Hindley has taken an extra step, but back then this wasn't a strong field of finishers.

A year later the field was a lot better, with Bernal, Yates, Carthy, Bardet, Vlasov... and a lot of people only remembered that he was stronger than Evenepoel and that he had lost 3 minutes waiting for Evenepoel in the process, and that he finished strongly in the 3rd week. They didn't remember however that he had already lost more time due to his own failure early in the Giro and that he still would not have reached the podium even without the time he had lost due to Evenepoel.

Also, his Bota Lume slogan was always more about him putting up a fight, much more than him going on the attack or crushing his opponents. He has never been a dominant rider, which also shows from his limited pro wins so far. So i feel people need to adjust their expectations. I quite like him, but he isn't of the same level as Pogacar, and likely also not as Ayuso in the long run. Only looking at his own team now. I think he can be a GC leader and has earned that, but maybe people should expect a GC career more aching to that of Bardet, for instance. I think Almeida can win a GC, but things will have to go his way. He isn't a ''power of nature'' like some of the other young contenders seem to be. So i don't think it's fair to berate him or his way of riding. I still wonder though if moving to UAE was really in his best interest, other than for the money. I doubt it. Maybe QS isn't the best team for a GC prospect either (they have screwed up many things with Evenepoel), but it did seem to be working rather well for Joao, who has been climbing worse and TT'ing worse since moving to UAE.

 

[carolina]

Am I the only one that doesn't think he's climbing worse?

 

[noob]

Is this translation accurate? He's basically asking his fans to support him no matter what results he makes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420332894329864196

 

[noob]

Am I the only one that doesn't think he's climbing worse?

I agree. I think he's still climbing slightly better, apart from maybe Sega di Ala.

I think Burgos was even a record for that climb or something.

 

[noob]

And here be why I tend to see him as slightly anxious apart from risk averse.

 

[carolina]

Is this translation accurate? He's basically asking his fans to support him no matter what results he makes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420332894329864196

Not really asking, just saying that's the type of fans he prefers.

If you go through UAE social media you'll see a tone of hate comments from portuguese fans towards every non-portuguese UAE rider. In their minds, Almeida is some how entitled to this super team that has to slave for him all the time.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Am I the only one that doesn't think he's climbing worse?

I have no idea if there are others who share that thought. Even if he isn't climbing worse, he surely isn't climbing better overall, while he is a year older and should still be improving.

 

[noob]

Not really asking, just saying that's the type of fans he prefers.

If you go through UAE social media you'll see a tone of hate comments from portuguese fans towards every non-portuguese UAE rider. In their minds, Almeida is some how entitled to this super team that has to slave for him all the time.

Yeah I know there are crazy Portuguese, but I thought this was a response to Almeida himself being critisized for not doing well enough.

So I kind of saw it as a passive agressive way to shut down critisism.

 

[noob]

I have no idea if there are others who share that thought. Even if he isn't climbing worse, he surely isn't climbing better overall, while he is a year older and should still be improving.

Isn't there a say that people perform worse after leaving QS?

 

[Gratemans]

I think people jumped to conclusions in his first 2 Giros. He came out of nowhere and had the pink jersey for nearly two weeks iirc, nobody expected that of him, and in an era of Evenepoel, Pogacar and Bernal, it was normal to think he was the next in line of superkids.

But the 2020 Giro had a rather weak field, it was between Kelderman, Hart and Hindley in the end. Not between Bernal, Roglic, Thomas (who crashed out early) Pogacar... Obviously, 2 years later Hindley has taken an extra step, but back then this wasn't a strong field of finishers.

A year later the field was a lot better, with Bernal, Yates, Carthy, Bardet, Vlasov... and a lot of people only remembered that he was stronger than Evenepoel and that he had lost 3 minutes waiting for Evenepoel in the process, and that he finished strongly in the 3rd week. They didn't remember however that he had already lost more time due to his own failure early in the Giro and that he still would not have reached the podium even without the time he had lost due to Evenepoel.

Also, his Bota Lume slogan was always more about him putting up a fight, much more than him going on the attack or crushing his opponents. He has never been a dominant rider, which also shows from his limited pro wins so far. So i feel people need to adjust their expectations. I quite like him, but he isn't of the same level as Pogacar, and likely also not as Ayuso in the long run. Only looking at his own team now. I think he can be a GC leader and has earned that, but maybe people should expect a GC career more aching to that of Bardet, for instance. I think Almeida can win a GC, but things will have to go his way. He isn't a ''power of nature'' like some of the other young contenders seem to be. So i don't think it's fair to berate him or his way of riding. I still wonder though if moving to UAE was really in his best interest, other than for the money. I doubt it. Maybe QS isn't the best team for a GC prospect either (they have screwed up many things with Evenepoel), but it did seem to be working rather well for Joao, who has been climbing worse and TT'ing worse since moving to UAE.

Very accurate analysis imo.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Isn't there a say that people perform worse after leaving QS?

Yes, there is this myth. But it 's easily debunked. It rings true for a lot of classic riders and sprinters, simply because QuickStep has been dominant in that department. When you have the best leadout sprinttrain and you leave that team, chances are you will be winning less in a team with a worse leadout. A lot of their top classics guys didn't get a new contract at a certain age. Gilbert, Terpstra... It only makes sense that Terpstra isn't winning as much after leaving QS after turning 34.

Plenty of riders prove it's just a myth. Mainly younger or GC riders like Mas, Schachmann, D. Martin, De Plus...

 

[IndianCyclist]

QST was the wrong team for GC and Remco was top dog there, so he had to leave. But it was his choice to go after the money, to UAE, with Pogacar. So the support in race and outside of race will be limited. At the same time he should not be doing 2 GTS for GC at his age. The constant up and down means that faster acceleration to form and lesser recovery and possibly depression of capacity longterm. He should go to a more scientific team like Ineos or Jumbo, build slowly to a single GT per year. They should be able to correct any flaws in training etc. Otherwise he risks becoming Rolland or Kwia.

 

[Billie]

Isn't there a say that people perform worse after leaving QS?

He is better than last year

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

For sure the most zubeldia-esque rider in the top 10.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

QST was the wrong team for GC and Remco was top dog there, so he had to leave.

There are 3 GT's and it was already said that he would not have to follow the path of Evenepoel a year before he left. On the other hand it was already clear the team was going to invest in a GC support team, which would also have benefited Almeida in the near future. The team already had a big focus on TT and aero, so that was already an advantage. Also QS ride with arguably the best bikes/equipment (both road as TT) of the peloton. I agree QS was not a clear cut GC team and is still missing GC experience and knowledge, so in that regard i understand, but he knew with Evenepoel that focus would come sooner rather than later.

If he went to Ineos he would be one of the guys they already have a pile of, not as a real leader. At best he'd get the same chances as Martinez, and at worst he would be much worse off than he was at Quickstep with a near certainty at absolute leadership in a GT. Same with Jumbo where he would have been 3rd wheel at best.

So i understand he left, but i very much disagree he had to leave.

 

[carolina]

IIRC, the other option was AG2R-Citroen.

 

[noob]

IIRC, the other option was AG2R-Citroen.

No other offer from any other team than AG2R - Citroen and UAE?!

 

[groogster]

IIRC, the other option was AG2R-Citroen.

There was also Bora who if able to sign him wouldn’t have signed Vlasov as far as I Know. At Bora he would have Hindley, Higuita and Ackerman with ambitions to leadership. IMO he is better than Higuita and Ackerman and at least as good as Hindley depending on the race stages profile.

I’m with Logic in this one. Staying at QS wouldn’t be a bad choice in terms of GC In the future, and despite what people say I think that him and Evenepoel had some kind of good chemistry between them, despite that infamous sterrato stage at the Giro last year.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Yes, there is this myth. But it 's easily debunked. It rings true for a lot of classic riders and sprinters, simply because QuickStep has been dominant in that department. When you have the best leadout sprinttrain and you leave that team, chances are you will be winning less in a team with a worse leadout. A lot of their top classics guys didn't get a new contract at a certain age. Gilbert, Terpstra... It only makes sense that Terpstra isn't winning as much after leaving QS after turning 34.

Plenty of riders prove it's just a myth. Mainly younger or GC riders like Mas, Schachmann, D. Martin, De Plus...

And go back a bit and Kwiato and Wout Poels did okay for themselves. Plus Ciolek won MSR after he left QS.