João Almeida - Bota Lume

[Red Rick]

Today's stage was very impressive, no one expected this.

I expected this.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Absolutely staggered to find out Rui Costa is not only still racing but was there at Suisse today. Stealing money from the pockets of one Jonathan Vaughters too, good man Rui.

I had the same reaction when I saw him still ride yesterday, tbh

 

[CyclistAbi]

Great performance and a nice solo win. Tomorrow likely to hint if already in stage hunting mode or GC overall to still be a realistic goal.

 

[noob]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Opx2wZLssp8

A trip down the memory lane for those who can't find it. It was before giro 2020 lol

 

[Froome]

Just looks different to me. Can't back it up with data.

Think he's gonna be atypically strong at the Tour.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1935390068681679013

View: https://x.com/WattsinCycling/status/1935390068681679013?t=pl2sAbIoOeR03h8gBHi5IA&s=19

 

[noob]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1935390068681679013

View: https://x.com/WattsinCycling/status/1935390068681679013?t=pl2sAbIoOeR03h8gBHi5IA&s=19

Why 60k standard?

I such at math, but he said today he's 65 kilo

 

[Unchained]

I expected this.

I expected what Rick expected.....

 

[noob]

Just looks different to me. Can't back it up with data.

Think he's gonna be atypically strong at the Tour.

He's mentally different imo. The rest I don't know.

 

[Froome]

Why 60k standard?

I such at math, but he said today he's 65 kilo

Normally they do in 65 kg standard.

By doing in 60 kg standard, the numbers are a bit more high.

 

[P4rthen0n]

Sorry but he beat Jonas twice. This is impressive IMO. Even an average Vingegaard is better than everyone else bar Pogacar.
In previous years, João never delivered performances like we saw in Pais Vasco even against 2nd or 3rd tier GC riders. He is descending a lot better, better positioning, better kick. I can see a lot of improvements.

Yes, it is impressive that Almeida beat Vingegaard twice early in the season, but that only means that he was in better shape at the time.
However, it is not a certainty that his overall level has gone up, numbers wise. That remains to be proven on the road.

So far, Almeida's best climb of the season was Thyon 2000 and those numbers were bellow his own numbers at the TDF 2024.

Also, compared to today's effort by Almeida, his numbers were worse than what Remco did in the Dauphiné in the Combloux stage (both were ~20 minute climbs), where he lost 2 minutes to Pogacar and 1 minute to Vingegaard.
One can argue that today's climb was at an higher altitude and at some points there was a mean head wind, but still.

 

[Red Rick]

W/kg estimates are useless as they're 90%+ down to circumstance. Pay attention to who he is beating, by how much in what context.

Pogacar literally did 7+ for 20 minutes and 6.2 or something pedestrian 2 days apart.

 

[jmdirt]

TAKE that stage JA! Keep attacking!

 

[HashRouge]

W/kg estimates are useless as they're 90%+ down to circumstance. Pay attention to who he is beating, by how much in what context.

Pogacar literally did 7+ for 20 minutes and 6.2 or something pedestrian 2 days apart.

As a newer cycling fan (started watching during the 2022 Tour) I've tried desperately to understand W/kg estimates and how meaningful they are and I still don't really understand it. I definitely don't get how it's done with a certain weight as standard, or why they pick a specific weight.

 

[HashRouge]

I'd love to know if Joao will stay with UAE or not. I saw his contract is up at the end of 2026, so it seems like there might be scope for him to move to another team at the end of this season, and there have got to be quite a few that would be interested. I know he earns serious money with UAE, but it seems like there are a lot of other teams now that could offer a very good salary and a chance to be GC lead at the Tour. Surely Joao must want that soon? He's the same age as Pogi, so Tour leadership seems pretty unlikely if he stays at UAE.

 

[tobydawq]

W/kg estimates are useless as they're 90%+ down to circumstance. Pay attention to who he is beating, by how much in what context.

Pogacar literally did 7+ for 20 minutes and 6.2 or something pedestrian 2 days apart.

Of course they aren't completely useless...

 

[Tim Cahill]

Same watts as Jarno yesterday!

 

[Red Rick]

Of course they aren't completely useless...

True. I like it more as an indicator of if it's good or bad climbing conditions and what the pacing strategy was rather than overall performance. Comparing climbs that were raced very differently in very different stages is pointless.

Some riders also consistently perform well when numbers are high, and some do the opposite.

 

[Rou]

I don't expect high numbers from Joao this week (with the exception of the TT). His team has no domestiques to nuke a climb so he can't produce a high W/KG performance. However what impressed me today is that in 2km he put 45 secs into Onley, O'Connor and the rest out of an ordinary pace from Christen. Twist it however you want - this is Vingegaard or Pogacar level performance.

 

[Froome]

As a newer cycling fan (started watching during the 2022 Tour) I've tried desperately to understand W/kg estimates and how meaningful they are and I still don't really understand it. I definitely don't get how it's done with a certain weight as standard, or why they pick a specific weight.

Standar weight is the best way to compare the perfomances between two riders.

Vingegaard weighs 59 kg, Almeida 64 or 76 whatever....you need a standard weight to compare the perfomance of those two guys.

So, they usually go with 65 kg standard weight, to simulate both with 65 kg.

 

[Peyroteo94]

W/kg estimates are useless as they're 90%+ down to circumstance. Pay attention to who he is beating, by how much in what context.

Pogacar literally did 7+ for 20 minutes and 6.2 or something pedestrian 2 days apart.

The field is weak but he totally destroyed his opponents today.

 

[noob]

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=37qNfPRYL2U

 

[noob]

Weak field yeah, but average speed today also was very high even before they reached the climb due to breakaway formation taking so long.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think it's pretty obvious that Almeida has been on another level this year compared to other years. Honestly, I even give him a small chance of beating Vingegaard in the Tour.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think it's pretty obvious that Almeida has been on another level this year compared to other years. Honestly, I even give him a small chance of beating Vingegaard in the Tour.

I agree in the first part, not the second.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

True. I like it more as an indicator of if it's good or bad climbing conditions and what the pacing strategy was rather than overall performance. Comparing climbs that were raced very differently in very different stages is pointless.

Some riders also consistently perform well when numbers are high, and some do the opposite.

It's obvious that true time differences between cyclists matter the most in races (and they also indicate quality of performances in given conditions). W/kg estimates are what they are (estimates) plus they are dependent on circumstances, conditions etc (not just form). Obviously they are not useless, when we see PdB'24 we know something spectacular happened.