Supposedly is the key word here. They don't give confidence intervals for their estimates, for starters.
-
The Cycling News forum is looking to add some volunteer moderators with Red Rick's recent retirement. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to
In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.
Thanks!
It wouldn't surprise me, because he may be the biggest pure climbing talent in the peleton today.
He just won Pais Vasco against weak opponents. I don't doubt he will be strong in July but don't forget he was demolished 1 month ago by Pogacar and he was targetting that race. Can't wait to see this duel and I'm sure we will have a showdown already in the first stage.
Pog obviously peaked too soon - he'll be lacking in July
I find that quite often, gut-feeling turns out to be more useful than a list of statistics (Not to take anything away from Vaya³'s post, it's still very interesting). Because as you say, you're only as good as your last performance and every rider is on another point in their career (or season, even).
I do believe that Pogacar firing on all cylinders in the classics shouldn't hamper him come the Tour. The human body recuperates. And there's a lot of time between spring and the Tour, in my opinion there's no reason he shouldn't be back at 100% in july. We're in for a treat it seems..
It won't surprise me if he destroys everyone in the tour, including pogacar.
To the bolded, to me that's the 1 million dollar question. But is it true? I mean the kind of effort it takes in today's cycling to do well in both Flanders (not to mention a full tilt already at Strade Bianche-MSR, with TA in between) and then the Ardennes classics (at least LBL), and then again get ready for the Tour o-p-t-i-m-a-l-l-y is formidable. Not since the 80s has this kind of campaign really been done; when, as Fignon said in his book, the last generation of romantics adventured throughout the season. That is, before the mounted data computers/race radio/tech regime et al took over. Hence, as the general level rose in the peloton, riders had to pick and choose their targets, because the performance science has made it well-nigh impossible to be good enough in a nearly full classics campaign and the Tour in one year.
Now Vingeggard isn't doing the monuments. Instead, he is patiently building his form with every effort/rest period in full function of the Tour and only the Tour. In theory, therefore, the Dane will arrive at the Tour o-p-t-i-m-a-l-l-y prepared, not having "wasted" a single pedal stroke on anything that wasn't in reference to the Tour. This has been the standard way of doing things to win the Yellow Jersey for several decades now. By contrast, Pog is disregarding this model. He audaciouslly throws caution to the wind and sees opportunity to win big on every front, so doesn't hold back. Bravo, but this could also indicate an exceptional all-rounder knowing his talents have a limit at the Tour, extremely high though they doubtless are. So why deprive onself of a Flanders' victory, when you would gain little, if anything, at the Tour by skipping it? Maybe Pogacar being so good at so many things, means he can't reach the same ceiling as Vingeggard for the one-thing Tour.
This is to say, Jonas may be so good that come July perhaps Tadej will meet his match (again). This is my suspicion anyway. Interestingly, Cancellara has recently suggested that Pogacar has now become more of a classics rider than a GT specialist. Now at first this may sound crazy, the statement of a former rider who has just become a bit silly, but that on futher consideration may actually have a certain logic (at least when compared to Vingeggard).
Last edited:
I rate him as favorite even with how Pogacar’s season is going. He is equal or better on longer climbs and now is posting as good or better numbers than Pog has done on shorter climbs. Team is stronger and TTs are stronger or a wash at best. Only real room to lose time is bonus seconds and short to mid length climbs which he seems to be improving on, and random chaos but he has the green giant to save him in those cases.
I think it’s likely he still had room to improve last year given he’s only been team leader for 1 Tour so far and has been improving year by year pretty significantly despite being a bit older for the curve to be starting now.
His consistency and ability to dial up the same form is the biggest question mark, and the route not being quite as favorable to his strengths. Overall I wouldn’t be surprised by anything from a 4th place to winning by minutes.
I wouldn't know who other than Pogacar on the startlist, would beat him if he is on normal form. Even if guys like Mas or Hindley manage to step up and go toe to toe in the mountains, they will still lose time in the TT.
Compliments on the analysis. I would only change, bar "random chaos" (as you nicely put it), that based on current evidence it would be surprising if Vingeggard finished lower than second. I would not be surprised, however, if he won convincingly. Although I wouldn't say by minutes, because this Tour's course offers less opportunity for big time gaps.
It's doubtful Hindley and Mas can go toe to toe with top Vingeggard in the mountains, I think.
It's only 11 minutes but obviously a VAM of 2000+ is huge even for this duration. Still we all know that comparing VAMs and w/kg between different races and circumstances is tricky. I think it's time to accept the fact that Vinge, given his power and looks (super-thin upper body) is the ultimate climber. Outclimbing him on the biggest stage (TdF) is maybe impossible right now. It definitely makes sense when he says "the harder the stage the better for me". I believe that Pogacar (who himself is a w/kg GT monster) can still win the Tour but with a more conservative approach (small gains here and there, wiser energy management) or by...trimming himself down (this can't be ruled out but no signs so far as he had a good mass for Flandres).
Last edited:
Assuming w/kg on vam data is not really reliable I think. Those formulas were based in Armstrong era, but 20 years later the aero of bikes and equipment is on whole another level. Road surface is better. Possibly tail wind was in this case. And 11 minutes is really a short effort. Roglic and Evenepoel went 23 minutes in Cat. about 2000 vam, and nobody went full gas all the climb. You really cannot say based on performance in a field without Pog or Rog, or Evenepoel that he should win Tour. Even I can climb for 10 minutes 1700 vam on steep climb, with 83 kg, but when it comes to longer efforts I cannot hold even 1200..
It was an insanely strong performance & he made Gaudu (who finished ahead of him in Paris-Nice), Mas & Landa look like cadets.
TdF 2022 Vingegaard is back.
The biggest question mark should always be the combined tactical nous (or potential lack thereof) of Jumbo & Vingegaard himself.
It's the only weakness they have. It was on full display yesterday (leaving Vingegaard alone for so long, ergo any mechanical at any point & he'd be screwed) & in Paris-Nice last month when Vingegaard screwed-up tactically against Pogacar by attacking too soon & too hard.
People can dismiss the unusual nature of the TdF 2022 as much as they want if we're talking about raw performance levels (i.e. insofar as Vingegaard might have benefited a lot from the way the Granon stage unfolded yet was still more than equal to Pogacar in terms of his actual level in that TdF... & arguably even stronger) but what cannot be ignored is the fact Vinge was able to ride ultra defensively for most of the Tour.
If the roles are reversed in July & Vinge has to attack (which I expect because Pog will out-punch him in the first week), then he's in a trickier situation. He'll drop a watts bomb... but what if Pog stays on his wheel? Then what?
That's why I say Pog is favorite. He has more experience with hand-to-hand combat in close quarters.
Pogi made Jonas peak for Itzulia to justify his classics campaign.
And this is why this autistic loves watching cycling the most. The amount of neurodiversity runs high in the peleton. And Jonas Which One Is the Blue Jersey Vingegaard ain't exactly spared
He can be quck witted too. My favorite is still Vuelta 2020.
Time stamp:
Good analysis, however, I actually don't think Jumbo played their cards too badly yesterday. They had two up in the break, thus Vingo had his adversaries in his clutches. The only venial sin I saw, was when the break got caught and Jumbo didn't have the firepower to keep things under control. However, as we saw, Vingeggard was so superior he just dropped them and soloed for the win.
The Tour will be totally different and I wouldn't discount Jumbo's strategic nous entirely. But, yes, this year's parcours means Jonas will likely have to fight for incremental gains throught against Tadej, which could benefit the Slovenian. Although, again, Vingeggard seems to be on the right trajectory to be really super, potentially even superior to last year, come July.
Last edited:
Love to see people underestimating Pogi just because Vingegaard made some monster efforts against weak competition. Pogacar as underdog, will probably be a threat even bigger than he is.
Or is it rather that you overestimate him and underestimate Vingeggard? Apart from the provocation (tit for tat), I think it's a valid question. On thing is for sure, come the Tour we shall find out who estimes corectly.
As for the "weak competition", this is getting tedious. When besides a GT and principally the Tour do we see all/most of the Bigs fighting it out together? Practically never and there is a reason for this. Everyone is following a designated program and they rarely meet before the big appointment. So Pog, Rog and Evenepoel were missing, but It's almost the same for the others with respect to Vingo. It's called the great buildup. What can be said is Vingeggard is no fluke, has huge talent for the Tour, as good, perhaps even better, than Pogacar.
Last edited:
I would never call Pog an "underdog" anywhere he enters. He sure is the favorite for most people, whether they favour him or not?
TRENDING THREADS
-
Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2024 Stage 17: Selva di Val Gardena/Wolkenstein in Gröden – Passo Brocon, 159.0k- Started by Red Rick
- Replies: 582
-
Giro d'Italia Giro d‘Italia 2024 Stage 15, Manerba del Garda-Livigno (Mottolino), 222 km- Started by QueenStagiaire
- Replies: 1K
-
Giro d'Italia Giro d’Italia 2024, Stage 14: Castigliano delle Stiviere – Desenzano del Garda, 31.2k (ITT)
- Started by Nick2413
- Replies: 342
-
Giro d'Italia Giro d’Italia 2024, Stage 7: Foligno – Perugia, 40.6k (ITT)
- Started by Nick2413
- Replies: 626
-
Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread- Started by DNP-Old
- Replies: 24K
-
Giro d'Italia Giro d’Italia 2024, Stage 8: Spoleto – Prati di Tivo, 152.0k
- Started by Nick2413
- Replies: 592
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram