Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Gratemans]

Nah, they would say he is spending time with family and considering retirement. Riding in the Alps in some disguise would be enough. Imagine Teddy's face at the Tour presentation then!

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8H_DSErYUZk

A Dane secretely training somewhere while everybody thinks he's somewhere else? Sure, what could go wrong..

 

[Froome]

UAE going nuts from a get go and trying to kill/exhaust Vingo could cause Pogacar's fatigue at the end (also due to the Giro). Those two tiring each other may actually be advantageous for someone like Primoz.

If UAE does that in the first stages, and Pogacar cannot be able to drop Vingegaard, then the game will turn sideways. Pogacar will panic, with fear of what Vingegaard can do to him in the last week, even more if Vingegaard just follow his wheel in the first stages.

 

[SHAD0W93]

If Vingegaard gets dropped on the first stage, it’s going to be a long 3 week smackdown.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If UAE does that in the first stages, and Pogacar cannot be able to drop Vingegaard, then the game will turn sideways. Pogacar will panic, with fear of what Vingegaard can do to him in the last week, even more if Vingegaard just follow his wheel in the first stages.

Yes but I was just pointing out that UAE's strategy can actually hurt both Pogacar and Vingegaard (if they are not ready for 3 weeks of top intensity - for different reasons obviously)

 

[ontheroad]

I'm glad he will be there, I was worried that it would be a UAE blitzkrieg for 3 weeks if Vingegaard didn't show up. It still could be but right now there is some hope that he can make a race of it. I'm not sure a peak Vingegaard beats a peak Pogacar over 3 weeks but that debate will rumble on irrespective of what happens at this tour unless Vingegaard somehow manages to win the race. Then that would be his finest ever achievement and the debate is over.

 

[Sciatic]

A Dane secretely training somewhere while everybody thinks he's somewhere else? Sure, what could go wrong..

Love it!

 

[Froome]

Yes but I was just pointing out that UAE's strategy can actually hurt both Pogacar and Vingegaard (if they are not ready for 3 weeks of top intensity - for different reasons obviously)

I don't think it will hurt. It will be the same of last years. Everybody far from the two.

 

[Nick2413]

Would it be too much to have a poll on the kind of shape Vingegaard will be in and expectations now that he’s officially listed as competing?

 

[Netserk]

Would it be too much to have a poll on the kind of shape Vingegaard will be in and expectations now that he’s officially listed as competing?

Tour de France - Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

The big unknown. He has been announced to start, but what shape will he be in? Timeline from his crash: 86 days before the Tour: Crash, broken ribs and punctured lung, hospitalisation in ICU. 74 days before the Tour: Leaves hospital. 61 days before the Tour: First day on a home-trainer. 53...

forum.cyclingnews.com

 

[Nick2413]

Tour de France - Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

The big unknown. He has been announced to start, but what shape will he be in? Timeline from his crash: 86 days before the Tour: Crash, broken ribs and punctured lung, hospitalisation in ICU. 74 days before the Tour: Leaves hospital. 61 days before the Tour: First day on a home-trainer. 53...

forum.cyclingnews.com

It’s like magic!

 

[Bolder]

I'm glad he will be there, I was worried that it would be a UAE blitzkrieg for 3 weeks if Vingegaard didn't show up. It still could be but right now there is some hope that he can make a race of it. I'm not sure a peak Vingegaard beats a peak Pogacar over 3 weeks but that debate will rumble on irrespective of what happens at this tour unless Vingegaard somehow manages to win the race. Then that would be his finest ever achievement and the debate is over.

Good post, though I think we saw both at their peak in 2022. Bad tactical decisions are a separate but related issue…

 

[Oldermanish]

I have no doubt Pogacar will go all out in the early part of the Tour, and we will get the usual choir of people saying the "Tour is over", when he puts 2-3 minutes into Vingegaard in that part of the race.

However IF Vingegaard hits his top level week 3, he can claw back massive amounts of time on especially stages 19 and 21, where Pogacar having done the Giro comes into play.

The big question is if Vingegaard's recovery ability and oxygen intake above 2000 meters has been conpromised by the injury.

Time will tell

There are other players that will benefit from these two teams going at it.
Additionally the big IF you noted isn't likely to occur if the race is stressful for JV in general. That, unless Kuss and Jorgenson begin to emerge. Jonas has to demonstrate to himself what level of response he's got.

As for the Giro and Pogacar's recovery? I would suggest that GT was easy enough for him that it amounts to prep training for the Tour. If he folds this Giro's demands would be less of a factor than the history of other attempts at the double. The pressure of achieving the double, however; that won't lessen if it's a tight race. He's not just racing against one guy.

 

[ontheroad]

Good post, though I think we saw both at their peak in 2022. Bad tactical decisions are a separate but related issue…

Possibly so, but I suspect that Pogacar and UAE underestimated the threat of Vingegaard prior to that Tour and had marked out Roglic as the principal danger. That is where the 2022 Tour was won and lost and not necessarily on the road. In my mind it didn't answer the question as to who was the strongest GC rider since circumstances took over with a decimated UAE team trying forlornly to take back time.

I think we will still be none the wiser after this years Tour. As things stand right now UAE look like the stronger team overall and Pogacar has had a very smooth preparation in comparision to Visma and Vingegaard. On the other hand if Vingegaard somehow wins this Tour it would settle the debate in my mind.

 

[Oldermanish]

If UAE does that in the first stages, and Pogacar cannot be able to drop Vingegaard, then the game will turn sideways. Pogacar will panic, with fear of what Vingegaard can do to him in the last week, even more if Vingegaard just follow his wheel in the first stages.

I don't think Pogacar is built to panic. Almost none of these guys are.

 

[noob]

Well, if they decide to crash again, on top of each other, let's just say there is a preferable order to who lands on top.

Never thought of Remco as a bottom 🤔 🤣

 

[Mlarsen]

 

[Froome]

Pogslayer will be back again.

 

[dennisdy]

OK, so a new super-domestique for Jorgenson becoming 6th?

I just read the entire route again, now with close comb.
The course itself with the puncheur hill stages start in Italy, the Troyers cobble stage, the intermediate stages, the first real mountain stages soon cannot be more brutal for Jonas in relation to his supposed competitors.
Everything speaks for Pogi starting explosively right from the box, which was already his chance before Jonas' crash (and probably what the organizers were aiming for when planning the route in detail), that he will put Vingo under such tremendous pressure in the first half of the race that the chain breaks. Even the climbs on the first 2 stages can be used to create massive spreads for riders who are not at 100%.
Bear in mind that quite a few other riders with the top skills who show up in 100% top form standing at the starting line in Firenze.

The stages in Italy and the Troyers stage will in any case be anything but calm for Jonas.

A miracle if anything else happens.

Stage four will also reveal everyone's climbing fitness. The Col du Lautaret (2057m altitude) and the Col du Galibier (2627m) aren't as steep as some later climbs, but the sudden altitude jump could be telling.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Stage four will also reveal everyone's climbing fitness. The Col du Lautaret (2057m altitude) and the Col du Galibier (2627m) aren't as steep as some later climbs, but the sudden altitude jump could be telling.

That's what I meant by the first real mountains. UAE will test Visma, Pogi has prepared all year for +2000m altitudes. But especially descent to Valloire will test Jonas' confidense and previous skils here.
Then maybe saved by short and on paper "easy" short 1st ITT but after the Troyes cobbles battle and rest day the Clermont Ferrand stage 11 is top fuel for Pogi and poison for Jonas if he is not at least at 98%.
And again - stage 1+2 has opportunities to create real havoc at Visma if Jonas is dropped at one of the first severe puncheur hill attacts, opening dilemmas for Visma already at opening stages.
Just my POV since I have seen absolutely nothing to justify a Jonas as leader of Visma for this Tour.
Have to see it.

 

[dennisdy]

That's what I meant by the first real mountains. UAE will test Visma, Pogi has prepared all year for +2000m altitudes. But especially descent to Valloire will test Jonas' confidense and previous skils here.
Then maybe saved by short and on paper "easy" short 1st ITT but after the Troyes cobbles battle and rest day the Clermont Ferrand stage 11 is top fuel for Pogi and poison for Jonas if he is not at least at 98%.
And again - stage 1+2 has opportunities to create real havoc at Visma if Jonas is dropped at one of the first severe puncheur hill attacts, opening dilemmas for Visma already at opening stages.
Just my POV since I have seen absolutely nothing to justify a Jonas as leader of Visma for this Tour.
Have to see it.

I agree with your previous post. That's why I said that stage 4 "will also reveal everyone's climbing fitness."

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Never thought of Remco as a bottom 🤔 🤣

This is no laughing matter. One risks getting impaled, one risks getting squashed. Possibly some of both.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Some sort of result will in my opinion be a necessity.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Some sort of result will in my opinion be a necessity.

Will stomping Rogla do?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Will stomping Rogla do?

I could see them crash each other out.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Will stomping Rogla do?

I mean i get it, it's admirable and all, still if the result will be lack of any results. Then IMHO this isn't something to praise.

P.S. But OK, some still believe an overall win is at play too, people even go as far as betting on it. Fine then, lets do it then and lets see on how it goes.