Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[AmRacer]

I don’t think they expect MVDP to win TDF

Of course not, he crashed.

 

[E_F_]

They are so arrogant. I know Vingegaard will fly in July but they are underestimating the best rider ever.

Did I miss something? Is Bardet not retiring before the Tour..?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Visma still haven't learned that need to get some random guy on twitter to say stuff rather than doing it themselves.

 

[Oldman]

This is exactly what I expect. Total terminator mode with Vinge making the same jump Pog did last year, 12 months later.

My sarcasm meter went off with your response. If I'm wrong, please advise.

As for Jonas' personal camp: "thanks alot fellas. I'll be lucky to make it out of Dauphine' alive after that hubris!"

 

[ice&fire]

Everyone should be ***ng their pants, we're witnessing human evolution in front of our eyes and all that

 

[Froome]

Vingegaard just did less 10 watts than pogacar on plateau de beille when it was humanly impossible from him to be at his 100% best on that day.

The consistency was also affected mentally and physically in the past Tour, when he wasn't consistent in the perfomances he did.

The most natural thing for Vingegaard with a perfect preparation last year, was giving a jump from 2023 in the same way as Pogacar did.

Let's not forget, Vingegaard was doing the best spring of his life last year on TA, and he wasn't pushing worse numbers than pogacar was pushing on Catalunya 2023.

It would be natural and predictable for Vingegaard to push consistently more 20 watts on Plateau de beille than what he did, and doing that in a consistent way during all the Tour.

 

[Rackham]

My sarcasm meter went off with your response. If I'm wrong, please advise.

As for Jonas' personal camp: "thanks alot fellas. I'll be lucky to make it out of Dauphine' alive after that hubris!"

Oops, too many Terminator references. I apologize. I'm dead serious. Vinge's numbers must be outrageous IMO.

And it's exactly what I expected. The peloton's "evolution" is often masked behind Pog's dominance. But I fully expect Vinge to match him this summer.

This isn't wishful thinking btw because naturally I fantasize about Rog doing the impossible but I'm totally realistic.

 

[Rou]

Vingegaard just did less 10 watts than pogacar on plateau de beille when it was humanly impossible from him to be at his 100% best on that day.

Vingegaard did more than 50 watts less than Pogacar on Plateau de Beille because he weighs 7-8 kg less than him. Despite that his 2024 TDF was much stronger than 2023. So he made progress in 2024.
Expectations and reality are two diferent things. We expected Vingegaard to play with everyone in Algarve and Paris-Nice but Almeida beat him and made him look human.
My issue is with Plugge. He is the only team owner that is disrespectful to other riders and teams.

 

[Froome]

Vingegaard did more than 50 watts less than Pogacar on Plateau de Beille because he weighs 7-8 kg less than him. Despite that his 2024 TDF was much stronger than 2023. So he made progress in 2024.
Expectations and reality are two diferent things. We expected Vingegaard to play with everyone in Algarve and Paris-Nice but Almeida beat him and made him look human.
My issue is with Plugge. He is the only team owner that is disrespectful to other riders and teams.

What matters is watts etalon in a standardized weight, and that means less 10 watts.

 

[Pogacsa]

What is sometimes forgotten is that Vingegaard is two years older than Pogacar and the former will turn 29 this year. My feeling is that Pogacar is nearing his physical prime, or may be has reached it ... I doubt he can improve physically much more. The interesting question is whether Vingegaard himself has already peaked and may perhaps not be quite as good as he was in 2023. I have no idea if this is the case but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Froome]

Tour de France 2024, Pogacar le nouveau mutant. Par Frédéric Portoleau

Tadej Pogacar vient de réaliser le doublé Tour d'Italie / Tour de France, une performance inattendue dans ce cyclisme dense en coureurs de très haut niveau. Performance historique au plateau de Beille. Le Slovène a vraiment pris le dessus sur son rival danois Vingegaard au Plateau de Beille...

www.chronoswatts.com

Power estimates allow us to realize the athletic performance on this climb. In Jorgenson's wheel for 13min27sec at the bottom of the pass, Pogacar and Vingegaard are at 460 standard watts while the American at the head of the group develops 476 standard watts. On the intermediate section of 6.65 km at 8.36% (from 2 to 3 on the map), from his attack, Vingegaard develops the equivalent of 487 standard watts (7.1 w/kg if 60 kg) for 17min27sec. This is not enough to drop Pogacar. On the sheltered forest section of 11.68 km at 8.36% without the final exposed to the wind (from 1 to 3 on the map), Pogacar develops a standard power of 472 standard watts over a duration of 30min36sec. Vingegaard does as well with 474 standard watts for 30min54sec. The Scandinavian weakened a little on the top and lost another 50 seconds while Pogacar continued at a pace never seen before on the Plateau de Beille. Over the entire climb, Pogacar's power output was estimated at 473 standard watts (6.78 w/kg if 66kg). Vingegaard also achieved an incredible performance with 463 standard watts.

 

[Froome]

What is sometimes forgotten is that Vingegaard is two years older than Pogacar and the former will turn 29 this year. My feeling is that Pogacar is nearing his physical prime, or may be has reached it ... I doubt he can improve physically much more. The interesting question is whether Vingegaard himself has already peaked and may perhaps not be quite as good as he was in 2023. I have no idea if this is the case but it wouldn't surprise me.

It doesn't mean anything.

Quintana was "older" than a lot of riders who had more age than him, because he started sooner in professional cycling.

There is a lot of factors who are way more important than age to define if a rider can improve more or not than other rider.

 

[Rou]

What matters is watts etalon in a standardized weight, and that means less 10 watts.

I agree with this. I thought you meant absolute watts.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Tour de France 2024, Pogacar le nouveau mutant. Par Frédéric Portoleau

Tadej Pogacar vient de réaliser le doublé Tour d'Italie / Tour de France, une performance inattendue dans ce cyclisme dense en coureurs de très haut niveau. Performance historique au plateau de Beille. Le Slovène a vraiment pris le dessus sur son rival danois Vingegaard au Plateau de Beille...

www.chronoswatts.com

Power estimates allow us to realize the athletic performance on this climb. In Jorgenson's wheel for 13min27sec at the bottom of the pass, Pogacar and Vingegaard are at 460 standard watts while the American at the head of the group develops 476 standard watts. On the intermediate section of 6.65 km at 8.36% (from 2 to 3 on the map), from his attack, Vingegaard develops the equivalent of 487 standard watts (7.1 w/kg if 60 kg) for 17min27sec. This is not enough to drop Pogacar. On the sheltered forest section of 11.68 km at 8.36% without the final exposed to the wind (from 1 to 3 on the map), Pogacar develops a standard power of 472 standard watts over a duration of 30min36sec. Vingegaard does as well with 474 standard watts for 30min54sec. The Scandinavian weakened a little on the top and lost another 50 seconds while Pogacar continued at a pace never seen before on the Plateau de Beille. Over the entire climb, Pogacar's power output was estimated at 473 standard watts (6.78 w/kg if 66kg). Vingegaard also achieved an incredible performance with 463 standard watts.

I do agree that Vingegaard's performance on PDB wasn't that much worse than Pogacar due to setting tempo for longer + unoptimal pacing (too fast for him to maintain). It was absolutely mutant performance. We both agree that Vingegaard can improve substantially over the course of the whole 3-week race (due to his preparation he was far from his best on some stages). But I suppose his margin of improvement for that particular day (by far his best ever) could be slim. Then again, we will see, I definetely regard him as a real threat and a potential winner in July.

 

[theyoungest]

Plugge should just keep his mouth shut. He comes off as incredibly arrogant, even if he doesn't really want to be, and everything gets taken out of context anyway. For a former journalist he's so bad at presenting himself in the media, it's quite painful.

Yes, Vingegaard's talent lies in three week racing, but after last year's complete humiliation there's no point to get hybristic about it. Let's first see if Vingo can pose any sort of challenge to Pogi again and move on from there.

 

[Cycling111]

It's normal for them to say they're confident. Although saying he's the favorite is always a risk.

But the comment about Pogacar and Flanders is said maliciously.
Plugge always makes that mistake. To praise Vingegaard, he doesn't need to say anything against Pogacar, as he's often said before. This time, he simply said something with a double meaning that sounds like contempt.
That's not necessary.

 

[Froome]

Plugge should just keep his mouth shut. He comes off as incredibly arrogant, even if he doesn't really want to be, and everything gets taken out of context anyway. For a former journalist he's so bad at presenting himself in the media, it's quite painful.

Yes, Vingegaard's talent lies in three week racing, but after last year's complete humiliation there's no point to get hybristic about it. Let's first see if Vingo can pose any sort of challenge to Pogi again and move on from there.

I don't think it was a humiliation last year if we think from what Vingegaard was coming. He still did good perfomances.

 

[James M]

Pogacar has the same odds to win the Tour de France against a healthy Vingegaard as he did to win Strade Bianche. The rest is, and should be, self-explanatory.

 

[Gratemans]

Pogacar has the same odds to win the Tour de France against a healthy Vingegaard as he did to win Strade Bianche😂 The rest is, and should be, self-explanatory even to fanboyism.

I think we're gonna get a pretty tense Tour. I think it's gonna be pretty 50/50.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

And we go live to the Pog and Vingo fanboy camps, a month before the Tour...

 

[theyoungest]

Pogacar has the same odds to win the Tour de France against a healthy Vingegaard as he did to win Strade Bianche😂 The rest is, and should be, self-explanatory even to fanboyism.

Odds are a British thing, there's not a lot of cycling insight that goes into them. There is a huge recency bias, and also there's the general perception that Pogacar is the God of cycling and Vingegaard very much is not. He's just not popular, he's not a media darling like Pogi is. These things matter in the odds.

Nonetheless, if anything I think Pogi's chances of winning Strade were actually smaller than winning the Tour. It's just one day. Look at the crash he had, it nearly ruined his race even though he was by far the strongest. In the Tour if you're the strongest you probably win, even if you have a (harmless) crash along the way.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Odds are a British thing, there's not a lot of cycling insight that goes into them. There is a huge recency bias, and also there's the general perception that Pogacar is the God of cycling and Vingegaard very much is not. He's just not popular, he's not a media darling like Pogi is. These things matter in the odds.

Nonetheless, if anything I think Pogi's chances of winning Strade were actually smaller than winning the Tour. It's just one day. Look at the crash he had, it nearly ruined his race even though he was by far the strongest. In the Tour if you're the strongest you probably win, even if you have a (harmless) crash along the way.

That's not true. Emotional side doesn't matter for odds. Numbers don't have soul.
I think Pogacar has very low odds but this is due to Vingegaard's poor spring season. The true is Pogacar did an incredible season and Vingegaard his worst season until now. I also think Vingegaard will give us an incredible battle and to be honest, I think Vingegaard has 45% of winning this Tour. I would put Pogacar with 50%, 3% to Remco, 1% to Almeida and 1% to other riders.

 

[YavorD]

That's not true. Emotional side doesn't matter for odds. Numbers don't have soul.

It is actually very much true. Plenty of people bet on their favourite rider (or the one they've heard of) and that lowers the odds for the said rider.

Of course, there's an unwritten rule "never bet on a favourite team/rider but people don't follow it and they bet on their favourites.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

That's not true. Emotional side doesn't matter for odds. Numbers don't have soul.

That would be true if those who bet were always rational, but they are not.

Perceptions of how likely a rider is to succeed (and therefore the money bet on them) will depend largely on their ability, but also on how they are hyped, and that will depend on nationality, media visibility, team press releases etc.

 

[Berniece]

after last year's complete humiliation there's no point to get hybristic about it.

Humiliation? What a poor choice of words for someone who thought he was dying 2.5 months before TDF