Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[CyclistAbi]

Congratulations on winning Tour of the Basque Country.

 

[Extinction]

What I am notice is Vingegaard and Pogacar are so much better than others, so If one of them don't show up, the GC is just a mere formality.

What I notice is that Pog wants to win stage races, monuments and GTs, with an accelleration and innate race craft to win on all terrains. However, Vingo could perhaps outpower him in the mountains and tts of the Tour. It's not a given, obviously, but it's a suspicion; considering also we probably will see even higher performances yet from the Dane.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

What I notice is that Pog wants to win stage races, monuments and GTs, with an accelleration and innate race craft to win on all terrains. However, Vingo could perhaps outpower him in the mountains and tts of the Tour. It's not a given, obviously, but it's a suspicion; considering also we probably will see even higher performances yet from the Dane.

I was curious about this notion that Vingegaard is a better ITTer than Pogacar, so I looked at their records, plus Roglic as a common opponent / benchmark. Have to pass the time somehow. My take-aways are:

1. Pogacar is generally at least as good as Vingegaard and Roglic at the ITT
2. Vingegaard might have a slight advantage in an ITT in the third week of a Tour, if he has an advantage somewhere
3. Roglic's ITT performance shave slightly deteriorated over the last couple of years, whether that is due to shoulder issues, crashes, improved competition, or age is unclear
4. Over their careers, Roglic has on average been the best ITTer with many more wins across world champs, olympics, giro, vuelta, and tour
5. Roglic for whatever reason has historically been the worst of the 3 in Tour ITTs

How I got there:

PCS head-to-head for Pogacar vs. Vingegaard in ITTs.

• Excluding results prior to 2021 and TTTs, Pogacar has beaten Vingegaard 4/7 times.
• If you isolate to just the Tour, it is 2-2, with Pogacar winning the first ITT in both Tours and Vingegaard the third week ITTs.
• If you add up total placings in Tour ITTs (lower is better), you get Pogi 15, Vingo 16
• Pogi has 1 Tour ITT win, Vingo has 0

I was then curious about Vingegaard vs. Roglic at ITT because the party line here is that Pogacar > Roglic at everything and Vingo > Pogacar at ITT. Again, excluding pre-2021, you get:

• Roglic ahead 3-2
• Vingegaard's 2 wins were in the Tour
• Add up total placings (lower is better): Roglic 22, Vingo 29
• Roglic has 2 wins, Vingo 0

Then of course it made sense to do Pogacar vs. Roglic. Excluding pre-2019 you get:

• Pogacar ahead 4-3
• Pogacar has 2 wins in the Tour
• Roglic 1 win in the Vuelta
• Combined placings: Roglic 42, Pogacar 42

I then looked at Pogi's overall ITT performances, excluding when competing against Vingo, as he has a much longer track record of top performances and is much more consistent. That adds:

• Another win in a Tour ITT

Then Vingegaard's overall ITT performances.

• No impressive performances outside of those listed above in head-to-head

Then Roglic:

• Olympics ITT gold medal
• World Championships ITT silver medal
• 3 ITT stage wins in the Giro
• 4 ITT stage wins in the Vuelta
• 2nd in a Giro ITT
• 6 ITT wins in most important 1-week stage races

 

[Big Doopie]

@Big Doopie this is how you not barely beat Mas.

Just like Remco did at LBL and San Sebastián.

Glad Vingo has figured out how to do it too.

Now if only Pog could manage it.

 

[Extinction]

I was curious about this notion that Vingegaard is a better ITTer than Pogacar, so I looked at their records, plus Roglic as a common opponent / benchmark. Have to pass the time somehow. My take-aways are:

1. Pogacar is generally at least as good as Vingegaard and Roglic at the ITT
2. Vingegaard might have a slight advantage in an ITT in the third week of a Tour, if he has an advantage somewhere
3. Roglic's ITT performance shave slightly deteriorated over the last couple of years, whether that is due to shoulder issues, crashes, improved competition, or age is unclear
4. Over their careers, Roglic has on average been the best ITTer with many more wins across world champs, olympics, giro, vuelta, and tour
5. Roglic for whatever reason has historically been the worst of the 3 in Tour ITTs

How I got there:

PCS head-to-head for Pogacar vs. Vingegaard in ITTs.

• Excluding results prior to 2021 and TTTs, Pogacar has beaten Vingegaard 4/7 times.
• If you isolate to just the Tour, it is 2-2, with Pogacar winning the first ITT in both Tours and Vingegaard the third week ITTs.
• If you add up total placings in Tour ITTs (lower is better), you get Pogi 15, Vingo 16
• Pogi has 1 Tour ITT win, Vingo has 0

I was then curious about Vingegaard vs. Roglic at ITT because the party line here is that Pogacar > Roglic at everything and Vingo > Pogacar at ITT. Again, excluding pre-2021, you get:

• Roglic ahead 3-2
• Vingegaard's 2 wins were in the Tour
• Add up total placings (lower is better): Roglic 22, Vingo 29
• Roglic has 2 wins, Vingo 0

Then of course it made sense to do Pogacar vs. Roglic. Excluding pre-2019 you get:

• Pogacar ahead 4-3
• Pogacar has 2 wins in the Tour
• Roglic 1 win in the Vuelta
• Combined placings: Roglic 42, Pogacar 42

I then looked at Pogi's overall ITT performances, excluding when competing against Vingo, as he has a much longer track record of top performances and is much more consistent. That adds:

• Another win in a Tour ITT

Then Vingegaard's overall ITT performances.

• No impressive performances outside of those listed above in head-to-head

Then Roglic:

• Olympics ITT gold medal
• World Championships ITT silver medal
• 3 ITT stage wins in the Giro
• 4 ITT stage wins in the Vuelta
• 2nd in a Giro ITT
• 6 ITT wins in most important 1-week stage races

Good work.

You are only as good as your last performance, as they say, however, track records give an indication yes. Yet mine was a proverbial gut-feeling and, with due circumspection, I get the sense that Vingeggard still has a fair margin for improvement. Although what I'm curious to see in today's cycling, is if Pog shoots too many bullets in the spring to maximize his efforts in July? I don't know the answer, but after Vingo's performances this week and above all today, he seems to be planning things perfectly. The Dauphine should tell us more.

 

[KZD]

I wonder what will be his calendar after the Tour. If everything goes according to plan, Vingegård will have 47 race days until the end of the Tour which is not too many. He might try to do something similar to last year but I wonder if he won't try the Vuelta as it seems a more achievable goal for him than IL Lombardia even though Roglič is apparently planning to ride it too.

 

[Boehmand]

An emphatic demonstration of superiority today. I'm starting to think he's the man to beat at the Tour. Well, let's say, he should have another super peak in July, which will be tough to defeat especially if Jumbo is firing on all cylinders.

I agree.

I also agree with those that think Pogacar is generally the better rider, he's arguably the best overall rider we have seen since Mercks.

But his prolific talents can also be his Achilles heel, because for him to be at his best week 3 of the Tour, he has to hold himself back on some race days the first 6 months of the year, where he could win by going deep - and he might be too intuitive and carefree for riding that way (Vingegaard is not).

For the Tour specifically, I think the key for Pogacar will be how he manages his strength, day in and day out. The big dilemma for him is, that for two Tours in a row Vingegaard has proven stronger towards the end of the race. So Pogacar has to conserve more strength to perform better week 3, or he has to gain a larger margin the first 2 weeks. Finding that balance will be key for him, because going too far in either direction, could cost him the race yet again.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I wonder what will be his calendar after the Tour. If everything goes according to plan, Vingegård will have 47 race days until the end of the Tour which is not too many. He might try to do something similar to last year but I wonder if he won't try the Vuelta as it seems a more achievable goal for him than IL Lombardia even though Roglič is apparently planning to ride it too.

Maybe he can be convinced to ride the Tour of Denmark, but I doubt we'll see him in the Vuelta, unless neither him nor Roglič wins another GT beforehand.

 

[Red Rick]

I wonder what will be his calendar after the Tour. If everything goes according to plan, Vingegård will have 47 race days until the end of the Tour which is not too many. He might try to do something similar to last year but I wonder if he won't try the Vuelta as it seems a more achievable goal than IL Lombardia even though Roglič is apparently planning to ride it too.

I think this is where Jumbo probably just lets the rider decide. But I do have the impression he falls off after his main GT quite a bit, so I don't think he'll do the Vuelta.

Instead I'd just let him rest up, and probably do a bigger Italian fall schedule, hoping to improve his 1 day racing a bit. If I were Jumbo I'd be happy if Vingegaard had a crack at Liege or the 2024 Worlds if he gets extended.

 

[Boehmand]

I think this is where Jumbo probably just lets the rider decide. But I do have the impression he falls off after his main GT quite a bit, so I don't think he'll do the Vuelta.

Instead I'd just let him rest up, and probably do a bigger Italian fall schedule, hoping to improve his 1 day racing a bit. If I were Jumbo I'd be happy if Vingegaard had a crack at Liege or the 2024 Worlds if he gets extended.

I'd be interest to seeing him do the ITT at Worlds this year (the RR is probably more Pedersen/Asgreen territory anyhow). to see how he fares against the specialists outside of a stage race.

 

[jmdirt]

STRONG this week! "See you guys I need to ride harder".

 

[RedheadDane]

STRONG this week! "See you guys I need to ride harder".

Strong didn't race this week, silly.

 

[Red Rick]

I'd be interest to seeing him do the ITT at Worlds this year (the RR is probably more Pedersen/Asgreen territory anyhow). to see how he fares against the specialists outside of a stage race.

Pretty sure he gets destroyed on a flat ITT in the shape he's likely to bring to a one day ITT in October. Even in the Dauphine when he was handholding Roglic on the HC finish he finished over a minute down in the flat ITT to Ganna and Van Aert.

I doubt Vingegaard would be interested in riding the ITT, and I'm not sure how many spots Denmark has.

 

[Extinction]

I agree.

I also agree with those that think Pogacar is generally the better rider, he's arguably the best overall rider we have seen since Mercks.

But his prolific talents can also be his Achilles heel, because for him to be at his best week 3 of the Tour, he has to hold himself back on some race days the first 6 months of the year, where he could win by going deep - and he might be too intuitive and carefree for riding that way (Vingegaard is not).

For the Tour specifically, I think the key for Pogacar will be how he manages his strength, day in and day out. The big dilemma for him is, that for two Tours in a row Vingegaard has proven stronger towards the end of the race. So Pogacar has to conserve more strength to perform better week 3, or he has to gain a larger margin the first 2 weeks. Finding that balance will be key for him, because going too far in either direction, could cost him the race yet again.

Or maybe, as Cancellata has speculated, he's become a classics specialist.

 

[theyoungest]

Pretty sure he gets destroyed on a flat ITT in the shape he's likely to bring to a one day ITT in October. Even in the Dauphine when he was handholding Roglic on the HC finish he finished over a minute down in the flat ITT to Ganna and Van Aert.

I doubt Vingegaard would be interested in riding the ITT, and I'm not sure how many spots Denmark has.

Except the worlds aren't in October. They're in August, right after the Tour. I think Vingegaard definitely has a shot.

 

[Red Rick]

Except the worlds aren't in October. They're in August, right after the Tour. I think Vingegaard definitely has a shot.

Forgot. Right.

How many days after the final stage?

A worlds ITT after a GT GC isn't easy it all.

At the 2021 Olympics the TdF guys dominated the road race, but they got obliterated in the TT by Roglic who had left the Tour after week 1.

But then most ITT guys at the worlds will have done the Tour, but not for GC.

 

[Boehmand]

Pretty sure he gets destroyed on a flat ITT in the shape he's likely to bring to a one day ITT in October. Even in the Dauphine when he was handholding Roglic on the HC finish he finished over a minute down in the flat ITT to Ganna and Van Aert.

I doubt Vingegaard would be interested in riding the ITT, and I'm not sure how many spots Denmark has.

Is it flat? - I haven't seen the route.

I think Denmark has 2 spots in the ITT, but I don't think Pedersen/Asgreen/Cort/Kragh will want to do the ITT, when they arguably have a shot in the RR, so the choice would probably be between Bjerg, Norsgaard, Price-Pejtersen, Vingegaard and Skjelmose (the two latter ones provided they want to ride it in the first place).

 

[tobydawq]

Strong didn't race this week, silly.

 

[tobydawq]

Forgot. Right.

How many days after the final stage?

A worlds ITT after a GT GC isn't easy it all.

At the 2021 Olympics the TdF guys dominated the road race, but they got obliterated in the TT by Roglic who had left the Tour after week 1.

But then most ITT guys at the worlds will have done the Tour, but not for GC.

The Worlds are never in October (except in 2016).

 

[KZD]

Is it flat? - I haven't seen the route.

I think Denmark has 2 spots in the ITT, but I don't think Pedersen/Asgreen/Cort/Kragh will want to do the ITT, when they arguably have a shot in the RR, so the choice would probably be between Bjerg, Norsgaard, Price-Pejtersen, Vingegaard and Skjelmose (the two latter ones provided they want to ride it in the first place).

The ITT will be 5 days after the road race in the 11th of August so someone like Asgreen might still want to do it. I believe that the course is very much flat with a couple of bumps along the way so I don't think it fits Jonas that well. Something like the Tour of Denmark, the Tour of Britain and then a couple of Italian fall classics with a focus on Giro dell'Emilia and Lombardia is a more likely post-Tour schedule. However if he doesn't win the Tour, racing the Vuelta this season would make sense as next year there are the Olympics and the World Championships should be in a hillier course so the Tour will likely be his only GT.

 

[Boehmand]

The ITT will be 5 days after the road race in the 11th of August so someone like Asgreen might still want to do it. I believe that the course is very much flat with a couple of bumps along the way so I don't think it fits Jonas that well. Something like the Tour of Denmark, the Tour of Britain and then a couple of Italian fall classics with a focus on Giro dell'Emilia and Lombardia is a more likely post-Tour schedule. However if he doesn't win the Tour, racing the Vuelta this season would make sense as next year there are the Olympics and the World Championships should be in a hillier course so the Tour will likely be his only GT.

Ah, I was unaware of the reverse order of the RR and ITT, that of course changes everything.

I agree with you then.

BTW doing the ITT 5 days after the RR is a great idea, as we will probably now see the strongest field ever in the ITT.

 

[Red Rick]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1644789508653694977

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1644789508653694977

 

[Cookster15]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1644789508653694977

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1644789508653694977

An impressive performance for sure, looks like he has progressed a lot since Paris Nice. It looks like he might even be stronger for the 2023 TdF than he was in 2022.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Supposedly Vingegaard has a slightly better performance today than Remco and Roglic on Lo Port.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1644783635596230658

View: https://twitter.com/cyclinggraphs/status/1644783635596230658?s=46&t=14N416zK93up_7bVPO60Ig

 

[hayneplane]

Really good performance from Vingegaard but hard to know whether he improved a lot from Paris Nice or was just so much superior to the field because none of the other A-listers were present. Clearly still a positive that this was his best ever 1 week stage race performance.