Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Andy schleck]

I don't think so. The gap is too small to be comfortable and will get smaller if Vinge can't drop Pogacar (due to bonuses). Vinge will want to drop Pogacar for good but maybe he'll wait a bit longer this time. But Puy de Dome is too tempting, isn't it?

I think vingegaard should counter attack instead of attack, and then try to win some confortable time. But yeah, puy de dome is too tempting.

 

[Peter von]

I think vingegaard should counter attack instead of attack, and then try to win some confortable time. But yeah, puy de dome is too tempting.

For sure, he still has the advantage and if Jumbo let's the break go away, it's up to UAE to chase the break and set Pogi up for bonuses this gives some opportunities for Vingegaard to take Pogi's wheel. Jumbo can then take over the pace setting if Jons has good legs on the day, but Pogi needs to lead for the stage win bonus seconds to happen, Yates isn't strong enough to deliver a bunch sprint on the big summit finishes.

 

[Trofonios]

If Vingegaard feels good he should definitely try on Puy de Dome. Use van Baarle and Benoot on the first part on the climb to set a high pace, then let Kelderman and van Aert do beginning of the steep section before Kuss takes over. It will be crucial that Kuss is on a good day and can pull hard for at least 1k, then it's time for Vingegaard. If he can repeat his effort on Marie Blanque there is a chance he can drop Pog again. The risk of Pog attacking and dropping Vingegaard should be lower on Dome if Vingegaard's shape is the same as on Blanque. Steepness of the climb should be in Vingegaards favour, being the lighter one. Should TJV let the break win so that bonus seconds aren't up for grabs? Maybe, if they want to play it a bit safe, if Pog holds on he will surely beat Vingegaard in the sprint.

 

[Peter von]

If Vingegaard feels good he should definitely try on Puy de Dome. Use van Baarle and Benoot on the first part on the climb to set a high pace, then let Kelderman and van Aert do beginning of the steep section before Kuss takes over. It will be crucial that Kuss is on a good day and can pull hard for at least 1k, then it's time for Vingegaard. If he can repeat his effort on Marie Blanque there is a chance he can drop Pog again. The risk of Pog attacking and dropping Vingegaard should be lower on Dome if Vingegaard's shape is the same as on Blanque. Steepness of the climb should be in Vingegaards favour, being the lighter one. Should TJV let the break win so that bonus seconds aren't up for grabs? Maybe, if they want to play it a bit safe, if Pog holds on he will surely beat Vingegaard in the sprint.

Think Jumbo should let the break go, try to get UAE to set the pace if they want the bonus seconds.

 

[Ripper]

I reflected on yesterday's stage a bit more. Oh my goodness did Jisma ever deploy a absurdly stupid strategy. However, they did a great job shielding TJ from the wind

 

[Extinction]

I reflected on yesterday's stage a bit more. Oh my goodness did Jisma ever deploy a absurdly stupid strategy. However, they did a great job shielding TJ from the wind

They got overconfident. In hindsight Jumbo should have ridden defensively, but were induced mistakenly to go for the kill. After all it was Pog who had to attack, thus he should have been made to burn matches, with Vingo sitting on his wheel. Exactly the opposite of what happened. When Hindley dropped on the Tourmalet, Jumbo could have kept Kuss as the pacemaker to make Pog start the fireworks and have Vingeggard just follow, putting pressure on Tadej to have to drop him and not vice versa as was the case. Then when they catch Van Aert, use him only to pace back up to the break and then make Pog again have to try and drop Vingeggard on the finishing climb. Instead the mental blow Jumbo got will have rocked their certainly and cursed Vingo with inferiority doubts. Moral: Jumbo got outfoxed, however, and I've said this before, from the moment Vingo's pace allowed Kwait to breifly come back that's when he should have known the plan wasn't working and thought of a plan B. Instead he just played Pog's last domestique.

 

[Ripper]

They got overconfident. In hindsight Jumbo should have ridden defensively, but were induced mistakenly to go for the kill. After all it was Pog who had to attack, thus he should have been made to burn matches, with Vingo sitting on his wheel. Exactly the opposite of what happened. When Hindley dropped on the Tourmalet, Jumbo could have kept Kuss as the pacemaker to make Pog start the fireworks and have Vingeggard just follow, putting pressure on Tadej to have to drop him and not vice versa as was the case. Then when they catch Van Aert, use him only to pace back up to the break and then make Pog again have to try and drop Vingeggard on the finishing climb. Instead the mental blow Jumbo got will have rocked their certainly and cursed Vingo with inferiority doubts. Moral: Jumbo got outfoxed, however, and I've said this before, from the moment Vingo's pace allowed Kwait to breifly come back that's when he should have known the plan wasn't working and thought of a plan B. Instead he just played Pog's last domestique.

Exactly, they were overconfident and they did not adapt their plan. When they could not drop Pogo on the Tourmalet, they should have eased off a bit. And really, I would not have detonated nearly all my team on the Tourmalet given how much racing there still was to do before the final climb. They were in a position to likely have several riders be able to stay with Vingo until the final climb. Instead, they gave Pogs a great draft up until a few kilometers to go. He had to respond to a few attacks, but even if he was a little bit weaker than Vingo, he had much less effort to expend through the majority of the second half of the race.

From a risk analysis point of view, it was a high risk gamble with a fairly good potential to not end up working very well. Perhaps they were overly worried about Jai. It has certainly been shaped into a two rider race now.

 

[Offline]

Was it just me or did Vingegaard look cooked today when Jumbo did their hard pull in the end. His face looked like he was in serious pain.

 

[Rackham]

Was it just me or did Vingegaard look cooked today when Jumbo did their hard pull in the end. His face looked like he was in serious pain.

I noticed that as well. But it's way too 'unscientific' to read anything from his body language.

But I also noticed Benoot doesn't look so good right now either. We'll see tomorrow.

 

[Faserr]

Was it just me or did Vingegaard look cooked today when Jumbo did their hard pull in the end. His face looked like he was in serious pain.

Yes. I also noticed that at that moment. He was falling back a bit after the climb and missed the split forced by Campenaerts. Don't know if that is telling us something, could be normal...

 

[Trofonios]

Was it just me or did Vingegaard look cooked today when Jumbo did their hard pull in the end. His face looked like he was in serious pain.

Those fast ridden short climbs don't suit Vingegaard that well. And no wonder, the powerout is huge. And now one wonder how smart it is to do those extreme short efforts when Vinge goes for GC. It is here the GC ambition collides with going for stage wins for Wout.

 

[Extinction]

Exactly, they were overconfident and they did not adapt their plan. When they could not drop Pogo on the Tourmalet, they should have eased off a bit. And really, I would not have detonated nearly all my team on the Tourmalet given how much racing there still was to do before the final climb. They were in a position to likely have several riders be able to stay with Vingo until the final climb. Instead, they gave Pogs a great draft up until a few kilometers to go. He had to respond to a few attacks, but even if he was a little bit weaker than Vingo, he had much less effort to expend through the majority of the second half of the race.

From a risk analysis point of view, it was a high risk gamble with a fairly good potential to not end up working very well. Perhaps they were overly worried about Jai. It has certainly been shaped into a two rider race now.

When you can't drop someone after 3, 4 tries, then you have to slide over rover! And make that guy take the front or attack BEFORE he can drop you. It's cycling 101.

 

[Gigs_98]

I noticed that as well. But it's way too 'unscientific' to read anything from his body language.

But I also noticed Benoot doesn't look so good right now either. We'll see tomorrow.

Yeah my immediate reaction when watching was that Jonas looked in pain, said something and then the teammate in front of him slowed down a bit. But then another Jumbo rider took the front and the pace increased again so I thought it was probably nothing. But who knows.

Concerning whether that kind of effort just doesn't suit him, I guess, but then on stage 4 last year he was the best of the gc contenders over the little hill when Wout took off, and I think that was a pretty similar effort. So if he was indeed hurting today, that's not a good sign.

 

[Trofonios]

Yeah my immediate reaction when watching was that Jonas looked in pain, said something and then the teammate in front of him slowed down a bit. But then another Jumbo rider took the front and the pace increased again so I thought it was probably nothing. But who knows.

Concerning whether that kind of effort just doesn't suit him, I guess, but then on stage 4 last year he was the best of the gc contenders over the little hill when Wout took off, and I think that was a pretty similar effort. So if he was indeed hurting today, that's not a good sign.

Not sure it's comparable. That climb was 1k at 7,2 %. Sure, short effort, but steeper and therefore more suited to Vingegaard than today. The split then was also more severe, beside Wout mostly climbers in front.

 

[Gigs_98]

Not sure it's comparable. That climb was 1k at 7,2 %. Sure, short effort, but steeper and therefore more suited to Vingegaard than today. The split then was also more severe, beside Wout mostly climbers in front.

Todays climb was 1.2k at 5.4%. Of course not exactly the same, but surely similar enough to make the comparison.

 

[Cookster15]

Wow, so some speculation that facial expressions might betray his true level. I tend to agree, if you are the defending TdF champ on good form you would not suffer much on a finish like that. Maybe Jonas did peak too early at the Dauphine? But we are still speculating, we will see his true level on Puy de Dôme. Not long to wait.

 

[Lorzenz08]

I think he'll be fine

 

[ice&fire]

TJV needs to hire Quintana as a consultant on detaching facial expressions from physical condition

 

[Cookster15]

When you can't drop someone after 3, 4 tries, then you have to slide over rover! And make that guy take the front or attack BEFORE he can drop you. It's cycling 101.

Yes, but did JV on the Tourmalet make the same mistake Pogi did on Granon? Over confidence.

JV seem to believe they have data which proves they know Pogi's level and how he will respond on certain mountains. But unless they stole blood samples showing his lactate levels, their sports scientists are still speculating on Pog. Pog and UAE have had one year to contemplate where he went wrong in 2022. He was obviously back to career best level earlier in the season doing the impossible. And don't forget natural progression - at still just 24 we haven't seen the best Pog yet. And now we know Pogacar is climbing well after stage 6.

His LBL crash threw a spanner in the works but I think we've seen enough after stage 6 to know Pogacar is a genuine threat to Vingegaard going back to back. The interruption of his LBL crash also suggests Pog's level should rise the longer the TdF goes- so Jumbo must land the knockout punch before peak Pog returns for the Alpes and Loze. They tried and failed on the Tourmalet.

 

[Lorzenz08]

Yes, but did JV on the Tourmalet make the same mistake Pogi did on Granon? Over confidence.

JV seem to believe they have data which proves they know Pogi's level and how he will respond on certain mountains. But unless they stole blood samples showing his lactate levels, their sports scientists are still speculating on Pog. Pog and UAE have had one year to contemplate where he went wrong in 2022. He was obviously back to career best level earlier in the season doing the impossible. And don't forget natural progression - at still just 24 we haven't seen the best Pog yet. And now we know Pogacar is climbing well after stage 6.

His LBL crash threw a spanner in the works but I think we've seen enough after stage 6 to know Pogacar is a genuine threat to Vingegaard going back to back. The interruption of his LBL crash also suggests Pog's level should rise the longer the TdF goes- so Jumbo must land the knockout punch before peak Pog returns for the Alpes and Loze. They tried and failed on the Tourmalet.

There's definitely a part of over confidence, but as you said linked to Pogi level.

Listen at 5:20

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGIMtWNv9H8&t=470s


Even when they saw Pogi following the entire Tourmalet they thought he cooked himself trying to follow, spent all his energy and will crack in the next climb.

 

[Peyroteo94]

There's definitely a part of over confidence, but as you said linked to Pogi level.

Listen at 5:20

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGIMtWNv9H8&t=470s


Even when they saw Pogi following the entire Tourmalet they thought he cooked himself trying to follow, spent all his energy and will crack in the next climb.

It seems they know Pogacar's limits

 

[Extinction]

Yes, but did JV on the Tourmalet make the same mistake Pogi did on Granon? Over confidence.

JV seem to believe they have data which proves they know Pogi's level and how he will respond on certain mountains. But unless they stole blood samples showing his lactate levels, their sports scientists are still speculating on Pog. Pog and UAE have had one year to contemplate where he went wrong in 2022. He was obviously back to career best level earlier in the season doing the impossible. And don't forget natural progression - at still just 24 we haven't seen the best Pog yet. And now we know Pogacar is climbing well after stage 6.

His LBL crash threw a spanner in the works but I think we've seen enough after stage 6 to know Pogacar is a genuine threat to Vingegaard going back to back. The interruption of his LBL crash also suggests Pog's level should rise the longer the TdF goes- so Jumbo must land the knockout punch before peak Pog returns for the Alpes and Loze. They tried and failed on the Tourmalet.

In any case, when Kwiat got back on briefly they should have known the plan wasn't working, data or no data.

 

[Cookster15]

they thought he cooked himself trying to follow, spent all his energy and will crack in the next climb

Well clearly they got that wrong. I think Pog is only going to get stronger. Will that be enough and fast enough for tomorrow? Not long to find out.

 

[Red Rick]

2 things stand out about thursday.

1. Pogacar appearing pretty surprised about winning and waiting super long before attacking
2. Jumbo claiming they did not underestimate Pog and Vingegaard acting very nervous on the last climb. Vingegaard knew he didn't have it on the last climb.

 

[Bolder]

TJV needs to hire Quintana as a consultant on detaching facial expressions from physical condition

They already have Kuss for that.