Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Extinction]

Yes, but did JV on the Tourmalet make the same mistake Pogi did on Granon? Over confidence.

JV seem to believe they have data which proves they know Pogi's level and how he will respond on certain mountains. But unless they stole blood samples showing his lactate levels, their sports scientists are still speculating on Pog. Pog and UAE have had one year to contemplate where he went wrong in 2022. He was obviously back to career best level earlier in the season doing the impossible. And don't forget natural progression - at still just 24 we haven't seen the best Pog yet. And now we know Pogacar is climbing well after stage 6.

His LBL crash threw a spanner in the works but I think we've seen enough after stage 6 to know Pogacar is a genuine threat to Vingegaard going back to back. The interruption of his LBL crash also suggests Pog's level should rise the longer the TdF goes- so Jumbo must land the knockout punch before peak Pog returns for the Alpes and Loze. They tried and failed on the Tourmalet.

But they only needed to put Hindley under pressure, after that survey the situation, control, let Pog do what he has to do and be on his wheel. I bet Pog doesn't drop Vingeggard in that situation. It should have been a photocopy of last year after the Granon, but Jumbo suffered from megalomania and brought Pog back into the race. Idiots.

 

[Lorzenz08]

2 things stand out about thursday.

1. Pogacar appearing pretty surprised about winning and waiting super long before attacking
2. Jumbo claiming they did not underestimate Pog and Vingegaard acting very nervous on the last climb. Vingegaard knew he didn't have it on the last climb.

But they only needed to put Hindley under pressure, after that survey the situation, control, let Pog do what he has to do and be on his wheel. I bet Pog doesn't drop Vingeggard in that situation. It should have been a photocopy of last year after the Granon, but Jumbo suffered from megalomania and brought Pog back into the race. Idiots.

Pog wouldn't have attacked much earlier. Even in the last climb, he was ready to attack way earlier, but still chose not (at least in my opinion).

I agree however that Vingo shouldn't have gone alone in the Tourmalet and tried to drop him there. He would have had fresher legs, and maybe followed Pogi to the finish line.

But stage 5 worked so well, they became greedy and wanted to do it again.

 

[Peter von]

Exactly, they were overconfident and they did not adapt their plan. When they could not drop Pogo on the Tourmalet, they should have eased off a bit. And really, I would not have detonated nearly all my team on the Tourmalet given how much racing there still was to do before the final climb. They were in a position to likely have several riders be able to stay with Vingo until the final climb. Instead, they gave Pogs a great draft up until a few kilometers to go. He had to respond to a few attacks, but even if he was a little bit weaker than Vingo, he had much less effort to expend through the majority of the second half of the race.

From a risk analysis point of view, it was a high risk gamble with a fairly good potential to not end up working very well. Perhaps they were overly worried about Jai. It has certainly been shaped into a two rider race now.

yeah. Maybe

Yes. I also noticed that at that moment. He was falling back a bit after the climb and missed the split forced by Campenaerts. Don't know if that is telling us something, could be normal...

I mostly think it is telling us that Jumbo invested all their guys on trying to win with Wout and had zero left to pilot their leader.

Overall it’s probably a good trade off for Vingegaard, and Rogi before him, to take these risk but gain a Wout on certain important stages.

 

[JosefK]

I thought Jonas had a good "bad" day today (stage 9), if there is such a thing. Losing only 8 seconds to a thermonuclear Pog strike is pretty good stuff.

 

[hfer07]

Jonas, We have a problem

So far, Poga has been able to counter everything & anything that Vingegaard & JV have thrown at him , but It doesn't mean he'd be able to sustain it without the team support that Jonas enjoys, so that's the only factor that favors the Danish and the one that should be embraced moving forward......

 

[Peyroteo94]

I thought Jonas had a good "bad" day today (stage 9), if there is such a thing. Losing only 8 seconds to a thermonuclear Pog strike is pretty good stuff.

This is already his second bad day. Unless he improves (and rest days make wonders), he is screwed, specially in stage 14 and stage 15.

 

[Red Rick]

He limited his losses pretty well all things considering. Was a huge final 1.2km

 

[Rackham]

He limited his losses pretty well all things considering. Was a huge final 1.2km

The yellow jersey doesn't get dropped, he just limits his losses.

...

Seriously though, half (it seemed that way) of the most vocal cycling observers were telling us that Puy-de-Dôme's final 4km at those gradients & in that type of heat would suit Vingegaard more. So to see Pog eat away at his GC lead here...

It's basically been a bad end to the first week for Jumbo & now Vingegaard is in a pretty uncomfortable position tbh.

 

[Lorzenz08]

They must force Pogi to attack earlier.

 

[Red Rick]

The yellow jersey doesn't get dropped, he just limits his losses.

...

Seriously though, half (it seemed that way) of the most vocal cycling observers were telling us that Puy-de-Dôme's final 4km at those gradients & in that type of heat would suit Vingegaard more. So to see Pog eat away at his GC lead here...

It's basically been a bad end to the first week for Jumbo & now Vingegaard is in a pretty uncomfortable position tbh.

Generally when someone gets gradually dropped off the wheel during a huge attack on a steep gradient like Vingegaard did they kinda explode and lose more.

 

[theyoungest]

The yellow jersey doesn't get dropped, he just limits his losses.

...

Seriously though, half (it seemed that way) of the most vocal cycling observers were telling us that Puy-de-Dôme's final 4km at those gradients & in that type of heat would suit Vingegaard more. So to see Pog eat away at his GC lead here...

It's basically been a bad end to the first week for Jumbo & now Vingegaard is in a pretty uncomfortable position tbh.

Before the Tour I don't think anyone said this stage would suit Vingegaard more. It's just because he did unexpectedly well on Marie-Blanque that maybe some people adjusted their predictions. The theory is that Vingegaard does well, or better than Pogacar, on really hard stages with multiple HC climbs on altitude. That is not what this stage was.

Btw, it's a bit ridiculous to say Vingo is in an uncomfortable position when he's in yellow. Yes, he's had a bigger gap, but a week ago he was actually behind on Pogacar...

 

[Trofonios]

No Roglic to lure Pog in to spendning energy. And no Pog 3 minutes down forced to go on the attack from far out to gain minutes and thereby spending a lot of energy

Pog can now sit on the wheel and attack close to the finish, gain some seconds and maybe even bonus seconds, and eat into Vingegaards lead until he is in front.

Vingegaards last hope is that Pog can be vunerable in the high mountains like la Loze. But I think we will have a fresher Pog going in to those stages.

Anyhow, Vingegaard has his work cut out for him.

 

[Andy schleck]

The yellow jersey doesn't get dropped, he just limits his losses.

...

Seriously though, half (it seemed that way) of the most vocal cycling observers were telling us that Puy-de-Dôme's final 4km at those gradients & in that type of heat would suit Vingegaard more. So to see Pog eat away at his GC lead here...

It's basically been a bad end to the first week for Jumbo & now Vingegaard is in a pretty uncomfortable position tbh.

It really suited better vingegaard, but again, this style of racing that jumbo did, just like on tourmalet, is not good for vingegaard.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Before the Tour I don't think anyone said this stage would suit Vingegaard more. It's just because he did unexpectedly well on Marie-Blanque that maybe some people adjusted their predictions. The theory is that Vingegaard does well, or better than Pogacar, on really hard stages with multiple HC climbs on altitude. That is not what this stage was.

Btw, it's a bit ridiculous to say Vingo is in an uncomfortable position when he's in yellow. Yes, he's had a bigger gap, but a week ago he was actually behind on Pogacar...

A lot of people before the Tour said this was a stage where Vingegaard should put the hammer down. Stage 9, stage 14 and stage 17 were stages mentioned as Vingegaard's kindergarden.

 

[theyoungest]

A lot of people before the Tour said this was a stage where Vingegaard should put the hammer down. Stage 9, stage 14 and stage 17 were stages mentioned as Vingegaard's kindergarden.

You can probably find all sorts of predictions, but I think Jumbo themselves see Vingegaard as the favourite on stages that are super hard all day, and feature multiple long climbs, preferably on altitude. That's why the Tourmalet stage was probably a bigger surprise for them.

 

[theyoungest]

It really suited better vingegaard, but again, this style of racing that jumbo did, just like on tourmalet, is not good for vingegaard.

Why? It's the exact same way as Marie-Blanque was raced. It's just that Vingegaard himself isn't at that level right now, for whatever reason.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It really suited better vingegaard, but again, this style of racing that jumbo did, just like on tourmalet, is not good for vingegaard.

I think they should ride very defensively until stage 17. The way I am seeing both mutants, stage 17 is the only stage where Vingegaard can hurt Pogacar and it is a big "If", I don't know nothing anymore. Until stage 17, he should just limit his losses and avoid giving bonus seconds to Pogacar.

 

[Trofonios]

We have to be realistic. It wasn't a hard stage before Puy de Dome. A relatively fresh Pog is always super strong on 15-20 minutes efforts, no matter how steep the climb is. It was a tall order for Vingegaard to beat Pog on Puy de Dome. He was just 8s behind which is still good.

But no denying that Pog looks very strong, will be a tough task for Jonas to beat him.

 

[Salvarani]

I thought Jonas had a good "bad" day today (stage 9), if there is such a thing. Losing only 8 seconds to a thermonuclear Pog strike is pretty good stuff.

He defended himself well, but also had to dig quite deep. Efforts that he could have to pay the bill for later.

Just as it was worrying when Pog got dropped, but he responded immediately. Today was a chance for Vingegaard to respond but he fell short again. He still in the lead but something to feel optimistic about would probably be welcome. They will be going into the rest day with some things on their mind and how they should approach what is to follow.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

We have to be realistic. It wasn't a hard stage before Puy de Dome. A relatively fresh Pog is always super strong on 15-20 minutes efforts, no matter how steep the climb is. It was a tall order for Vingegaard to beat Pog on Puy de Dome. He was just 8s behind which is still good.

But no denying that Pog looks very strong, will be a tough task for Jonas to beat him.

Obviously Pog is a beast on moderately long climbs ( if they dont have Marie in name) OTOH a large gradient is better for a lightweight rider. Anyway the form gap between the duo was very small today so its not much to analyse but its always better to gain 8 sec than to lose.

 

[Andy schleck]

Why? It's the exact same way as Marie-Blanque was raced. It's just that Vingegaard himself isn't at that level right now, for whatever reason.

Vingegaard does better when the stage is super hard. He is a man of endurance. Look what happened on stage of marie blanque. The stage was very fast, so pogacar wasn't fresh on marie blanque, and then vingegaard made the difference. Today the stage was very easy until the end, and again, jumbo made other stupid mistake. It was perfect for pogacar. He was fresh and he's got more explosion than Vingegaard, and it was the little difference in the end.

I believe the stages in the alps are better for Vingegaard, but jumbo needs to ride a hard tempo. That's how it was in the last tour 2022. When the stage is fast, vingegaard is superior. He is better in terms of endurance.

Pogacar is doing the numbers that he usually does.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Vingegaard does better when the stage is super hard. He is a mand of endurance. Look what happened on stage of marie blanque. The stage was very fast, so pogacar wasn't fresh on marie blanque, and then vingegaard made the difference. Today the stage was very easy until the end, and again, jumbo made other stupid mistake. It was perfect for pogacar. He was fresh and he's got more explosion than Vingegaard, and it was the little difference in the end.

I believe the stages in the alps are better for Vingegaard, but jumbo needs to ride a hard tempo. That's how it was in the last tour 2022. When the stage is fast, vingegaard is superior. He is better in terms of endurance.

Pogacar is doing the numbers that he usually does.

What about stage 6? A super hard and fast stage. Just be realistic, you don't have a clue who is the best right now, just like everybody (me included).
And today wasn't about explosiveness. It was a 13 km climb, ridden at a very hard tempo from jumbo and Pogacar outpowered Vingegaard. It was a pure power, not smart riding.

 

[Andy schleck]

What about stage 6? A super hard and fast stage. Just be realistic, you don't have a clue who is the best right now, just like everybody (me included).
And today wasn't about explosiveness. It was a 13 km climb, ridden at a very hard tempo from jumbo and Pogacar outpowered Vingegaard. It was a pure power, not smart riding.

The climb wasn't always riding at hard tempo by jumbo, and it's a lot of different ride the climb in a hard tempo after a fast stage, than riding at hard tempo after the peloton doing cycle tourism until the bottom of puy de dome.

 

[Andy schleck]

@Peyroteo94 i'm not taking the merit to pogacar. He did a great ride. I'm just criticizing jumbo tatics.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

TIL Vingegaard has an endurance edge on 4-time monument winner Pogačar.