Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Bolder]

When i saw what Vingegaard showed on plateau de solaison before the tour de france, i thought that he had a chance to beat pogacar.

I agree. I at least thought he had a serious chance. At least I wasn't discounting him and that one climb to me proved that 2021 wasn't a flash in the pan.

What I see this year with Jonas is the confidence that he's the best in the world. Hard to judge from a single race, but he appears to have bossed it like a patron of old.

Vs Pog? Hard to say. I do believe that TP made some tactical errors -- including underestimating Jonas himself -- last July that opened the door for Vingegaard. If Pogacar doesn't chase down Roglic while smirking at the camera (I kid, but only slightly), he might have lost, say, only 15 seconds on Granon, or even matched him. Then we'd be looking at a very different race. Should be an epic battle this year.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Drop pogacar on col de la loze, could be enough to win the tour.

Loze is clearly the biggest chance for Vinge to gain substantial time on Pog (who has shown some weakness on huge 1-hour long climbs twice - on Mt Ventoux and...Loze). Other than that, there are really a lot of mountains in this race. However, most of mountain stages seem to suit Pog well.

 

[Red Rick]

Loze is clearly the biggest chance for Vinge to gain substantial time on Pog (who has shown some weakness on huge 1-hour long climbs twice - on Mt Ventoux and...Loze). Other than that, there are really a lot of mountains in this race. However, most of mountain stages seem to suit Pog well.

I think there's this assumption Vingegaard only beats Pogacar on the monster climbs because those were the only 2 times he attacked him in 2022. The gap on Hautacam was huge, and that climb is not that extreme.

I think all Peyragudes and PdbF showd was that if they go submax for entire climb Vingegaard won't beat Pogacar with a 1 minute lolwatts effort. But if he attacks earlier, I think he could.

If Jumbo really want to, they should have domestiques over the Tourmalet and blow up the race already right there.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think there's this assumption Vingegaard only beats Pogacar on the monster climbs because those were the only 2 times he attacked him in 2022. The gap on Hautacam was huge, and that climb is not that extreme.

I think all Peyragudes and PdbF showd was that if they go submax for entire climb Vingegaard won't beat Pogacar with a 1 minute lolwatts effort. But if he attacks earlier, I think he could.

If Jumbo really want to, they should have domestiques over the Tourmalet and blow up the race already right there.

My assumption was rather that Pogacar is more likely to suffer on a 1-hour climb than on 20-30 minute climb. It doesn't imply that he can't be dropped on shorter climbs at all. If Vinge is stronger on a given day he can still do it (albeit with less devastating effect). Then again, we are yet to see 20 something minute climb by Vinge that tops Pog's best in terms of VAM.

 

[Andy schleck]

My assumption was rather that Pogacar is more likely to suffer on a 1-hour climb than on 20-30 minute climb. It doesn't imply that he can't be dropped on shorter climbs at all. If Vinge is stronger on a given day he can still do it (albeit with less devastating effect). Then again, we are yet to see 20 something minute climb by Vinge that tops Pog's best in terms of VAM.

They did 6.6/6.7 w/kg on la planche des belles filles, around 20 minutes. Not bad.

 

[YavorD]

TBF, in November 2022, there were probably some people who would have referred to the 2022 TdF as "Last year"...

Yes, but they were clearly living in the future, so they were wrong.

OTOH, there are probably some people who would say that the (real) season doesn't start before Paris-Nice, so perhaps we can refer to it as a part of season 2022?

 

[Lequack]

Good battle today, he went a bit too deep but he has plenty of time till the Tour starts.

 

[HelloDolly]

Maybe today was the best thing that could happen to Vingegaard

Pog has been smarting from his defeat at the Tour last year and today he again realises he can beat Vinge and will have even more of his swagger at the Tour whicg will be great for viewers but also means he will take risks and could run out of juice in the 3rd week again against a top JV team.

 

[Red Rick]

I think fatigue resistance played a decently big role today. And that might simply not be there for Vingegaard at this stage in the season, while the fresh 10-30 minute efforts are solid already at this point in the season.

It was also cold with crosswinds all day. A lot of factors that don't help Vingegaard and won't apply so much in the Tour.

Bring on Couiolle. Hope for a decent showing there at least

 

[YavorD]

Maybe today was the best thing that could happen to Vingegaard

Pog has been smarting from his defeat at the Tour last year and today he again realises he can beat Vinge and will have even more of his swagger at the Tour whicg will be great for viewers but also means he will take risks and could run out of juice in the 3rd week again against a top JV team.

Well, does Pog really needs to take risks?
Possibly Vingo will be much better in july, but the profile this year isn't as good for him IMO.
However, assuming they are even in the TT, Pog will win most/all of the sprints for bonuses. So the Dane is the one supposed to take risks.

 

[Lorzenz08]

Well, does Pog really needs to take risks?
Possibly Vingo will be much better in july, but the profile this year isn't as good for him IMO.
However, assuming they are even in the TT, Pog will win most/all of the sprints for bonuses. So the Dane is the one supposed to take risks.

I agree but..
It's true that last year he basically won every time they were together in the climbs, with a sprint finish, without taking much risks.

So yes in theory it's Vingo who needs to break him kilometers before the end of the climbs. Which means he must be the one to take risks. At least until he has 2 min on him.

But Pog at the same time can't afford to wait for Vingo to pull it off. So maybe he is the one who has to take the risks to avoid being trapped like last year.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

He took a bit of a blow today. He also can't be too pleased with his team. When Pogačar attacked at the bonus sprint, he shouldn't have been the one closing the gap. He boviosuly doesn't have the ebst climbing support here, but still he could have hoped that Tratnik or Foss would have hanged on for longer. Not that that was the reason he bonked at the end, but it didn't make the final easier for him either.

 

[HelloDolly]

With Pog is not about the need to take risks ...he does so anyway wheather he needs to or not as he likes to attack and put on a show and show what a racer he is ...that is the risk he takes...the risk he wont have it in the 3rd week becasue he will have burnt too many matches

 

[CyclistAbi]

JV doesn't have numbers in this race. Hence Pogi can just go all out and all the time. As by doing that Jonas needs to do the same. And hence Pogi really isn't wasting any effort. On Tour both Rogla and Jonas cracked Pogi. Not Jonas doing it solo. Said that Jonas attacked today. And that has cost him dearly. In my opinion you don't attack Pogi in such situation. On why Tratnik doesn't prevent Pogi from taking bonus seconds.

Well.

 

[Cookster15]

JV doesn't have numbers in this race. Hence Pogi can just go all out and all the time. As by doing that Jonas needs to do the same. And hence Pogi really isn't wasting any effort. On Tour both Rogla and Jonas cracked Pogi. Not Jonas doing it solo. Said that Jonas attacked today. And that has cost him dearly. In my opinion you don't attack Pogi in such situation. On why Tratnik doesn't prevent Pogi from taking bonus seconds.

Well.

On Tour, Rogla, Jonas and Pogi cracked Pogi. In hindsight there was only one rider Pog needed to mark and that was Jonas. I doubt he would repeat that error this year?

 

[Nick2413]

On Tour, Rogla, Jonas and Pogi cracked Pogi. In hindsight there was only one rider Pog needed to mark and that was Jonas. I doubt he would repeat that error this year?

I still think Jonas is stronger by at least 1-2 minutes over the course of the tour on those type of stages. And Pog can have bad days even if not for tactical reasons. But if Jonas can’t drop him then Jumbo will have to get creative.

 

[Cookster15]

I still think Jonas is stronger by at least 1-2 minutes over the course of the tour on those type of stages. And Pog can have bad days even if not for tactical reasons. But if Jonas can’t drop him then Jumbo will have to get creative.

Yes of course Pog can have bad days. Logically JV wil try to use their strength to weaken him. But in the past riders have overcome a weaker team to win. There is risk but Pog needs to think about one rider only. If Roglic can be at his best then that is also problematic for Vingegaard, even if they are teammates.

Which stages suit Jonas in 2023 ? I see Col de la Loze is back (2,400 metres) - but stage 17 finishes with a 6k descent to Courchevel. Other than that there are no passes as high as Granon and I don't subscribe to the idea that Pog is significantly inferior on longer climbs.

I still say, had Pog not been overconfident on Granon and blown and then be forced to continually attack, then he may not have lost time on Hautacam. I am of the opinion whilst he is good, altitude isn't Pog's strength. But if Jonas can't drop him and Jumbo have to get creative that is a big plus for Pog - psychologically.

Let the buildup continue

 

[Nick2413]

Yes of course Pog can have bad days. Logically JV wil try to use their strength to weaken him. But in the past riders have overcome a weaker team to win. There is risk but Pog needs to think about one rider only. If Roglic can be at his best then that is also problematic for Vingegaard, even if they are teammates.

Which stages suit Jonas in 2023 ? I see Col de la Loze is back (2,400 metres) - but stage 17 finishes with a 6k descent to Courchevel. Other than that there are no passes as high as Granon and I don't subscribe to the idea that Pog is significantly inferior on longer climbs.

I still say, had Pog not been overconfident on Granon and blown and then be forced to continually attack, then he may not have lost time on Hautacam. I am of the opinion whilst he is good, altitude isn't Pog's strength. But if Jonas can't drop him and Jumbo have to get creative that is a big plus for Pog - psychologically.

Let the buildup continue

True that less stages seem to suit Vingegaard this year, although I still don’t think we have enough data points with the 2 of them. Pog seems stronger or equal on all but altitude, but Vingegaard really only pressured him once after Granon last year and he gained another minute. Pog won the stage directly before Hautacam so I don’t think he was still broken from Granon.

 

[CyclistAbi]

On Tour, Rogla, Jonas and Pogi cracked Pogi. In hindsight there was only one rider Pog needed to mark and that was Jonas. I doubt he would repeat that error this year?

If Pogi would find himself in a similar situation then he will need to chose. We'll see.

 

[Cookster15]

If Pogi would find himself in a similar situation then he will need to chose. We'll see.

Yes we will see. But IMO I think Pogi should choose Vingegaard. Sure, its a risk but like I said if Roglic gets away that is also a problem for Vingegaard who I think is JVs designated leader now. Trying to cover two powerful wheels is a great way to blow - like Granon.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Even on Wednesday it was clear that Pog was aware of Vinge's strength more than ever before - he even didn't want to cooperate with him and also didn't counter him immediately. I'm sure he will be careful with his efforts at the Tour and Vinge will be his main focus. Now he knows that the Dane can hurt him badly. If it means that Roglic flies away I think Pog will accept this risk - Slovenia wins anyway

 

[Berniece]

If Pogi would find himself in a similar situation then he will need to chose. We'll see.

How will he be in a similar situation when Roglic is riding the Giro? Which I don't understand honestly, if I was JV I would've added Roglic to my roster.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Roglic is doing the Giro not only to be the sole leader but to show Vingegaard can't beat Pogi without him.

 

[Berniece]

Roglic is doing the Giro not only to be the sole leader but to show Vingegaard can't beat Pogi without him.

It’s not like Roglic has many years left at the highest level. Every tour he can ride, he should

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah Vingegaard and Roglic have shat on each other many times, the resentment is palpable. Like Roglic was even the first to say Vingegaard could win the Tour. The disrespect.

If anything, I think either Roglic simply prefers to lead the Giro himself instead of being 2nd leader after Vingegaard, or Jumbo simply made the decisino to go Giro. Let's be real, after the Tour I don't think Roglic can claim equal leadership given the fact that he is the one on the wrong side of 30.