Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

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In today's least shocking news, Wielerflits have apparently had it confirmed from several Visma-LAB personnel that Vingegaard is indeed going to the Giro.


There's still time to in the end realise that the best preparation for the Tour is a training camp where they can control all the parameters.
 
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Great decision for Vingegaard to go to the Giro. This way he will probably win all three Grand Tours, and he will most likely still get the same result at the Tour: second place.
Whatever they may say, I think Visma have realized by now they won’t beat Pogacar again under normal circumstances — at least not until he runs out of motivation.
 
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Great decision for Vingegaard to go to the Giro. This way he will probably win all three Grand Tours, and he will most likely still get the same result at the Tour: second place.
Whatever they may say, I think Visma have realized by now they won’t beat Pogacar again under normal circumstances — at least not until he runs out of motivation.

It's one thing to go to the Giro and win it but it's another to just presume second in the Tour is guaranteed if he does the Giro beforehand.

If I extrapolate his second grand tour performance in 2023 & 2025 (the Vuelta) and apply it to this years second GT on his schedule (the Tour of course), then IMO the drop off in level from one to another is noticeable. Now maybe he plans to do the Giro at something like 90% and still win it - perhaps. But the Tour de France is raced so fast and hard these days that any bad day is going to be bad news.

I also look at this from Visma's perspective and I have to imagine winning the Giro again isn't exactly high on their agenda. I'm really not sure they'd sign off on sacrificing second in the Tour for a Giro win.
 
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It's one thing to go to the Giro and win it but it's another to just presume second in the Tour is guaranteed if he does the Giro beforehand.

If I extrapolate his second grand tour performance in 2023 & 2025 (the Vuelta) and apply it to this years second GT on his schedule (the Tour of course), then IMO the drop off in level from one to another is noticeable. Now maybe he plans to do the Giro at something like 90% and still win it - perhaps. But the Tour de France is raced so fast and hard these days that any bad day is going to be bad news.

I also look at this from Visma's perspective and I have to imagine winning the Giro again isn't exactly high on their agenda. I'm really not sure they'd sign off on sacrificing second in the Tour for a Giro win.
I understand your point, but I still see him having a great chance of finishing second at the Tour. I think the difference between Pogacar and Jonas and the rest of the field is just too high, so his form doesn’t need to be amazing at the Tour. Of course, someone like Lipowitz could step up and reach Jonas’s level, but I don’t think this is the year anyone will come too close — except maybe Del Toro, who would be working for Pogacar anyway.

At the end of the day, Visma might not like Jonas doing the Giro–Tour double that much, but in this case I fully agree that the rider should be the one who decides.
 
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I understand your point, but I still see him having a great chance of finishing second at the Tour. I think the difference between Pogacar and Jonas and the rest of the field is just too high, so his form doesn’t need to be amazing at the Tour. Of course, someone like Lipowitz could step up and reach Jonas’s level, but I don’t think this is the year anyone will come too close — except maybe Del Toro, who would be working for Pogacar anyway.

At the end of the day, Visma might not like Jonas doing the Giro–Tour double that much, but in this case I fully agree that the rider should be the one who decides.

I'm basing my assessment purely on Vinge's Vuelta performances in 2023 & 2025 especially. Like if you take Vingegaard from last year's Vuelta and put him in the Tour? Then it's a fight against Lipowitz for second.

IMO the bag of money he must have secured to ride the Giro probably made the decision easier (who knows, maybe this time he can afford to hire carpenter's for Trine's kitchen instead of DIY'ing it himself) but I really don't see what's in it for Visma.

If it was my call I'd still send peak Vinge to the TdF every year and just roll the dice, hoping for the sake of hopium that Pog has whatever problems he could have. The Giro doesn't move a needle (including financially in terms of sponsorships etc.) for the team.
 
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if you can operationalise that to clear betting terms, i'll take the other side of that

I'm all in on the "this is bad for Vinge's Tour" side of the bet. The Tour de France has become Death Race 2000 (you know, the old movie) where you have to be totally on it from minute one - mentally as well. Without lassitude, physical weakness or any spanner in the works.

And what did Trine say about Vingegaard? She said he doesn't cope well when he's away from the family so much. So you're looking at a prospective TdF for Vinge where (in whatever order) has got worse doms than last year (bye bye Yates), the team absolutely won't put all its eggs in his basket or ride for him exclusively (guaranteed to make Riis & co rage in the press) & his own motivation could be so-so if he's got no chance of winning or tries to stay with Pog when he shouldn't and blows himself up.
 
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I'm all in on the "this is bad for Vinge's Tour" side of the bet. The Tour de France has become Death Race 2000 (you know, the old movie) where you have to be totally on it from minute one - mentally as well. Without lassitude, physical weakness or any spanner in the works.

And what did Trine say about Vingegaard? She said he doesn't cope well when he's away from the family so much. So you're looking at a prospective TdF for Vinge where (in whatever order) has got worse doms than last year (bye bye Yates), the team absolutely won't put all its eggs in his basket or ride for him exclusively (guaranteed to make Riis & co rage in the press) & his own motivation could be so-so if he's got no chance of winning or tries to stay with Pog when he shouldn't and blows himself up.
shates was already too bad in the tour last year. he failed hard on soulor and ventoux, and didnt do much on madeleine. partly that was the team's fault. he should also be better this year if he had been motivated.

and the team rode for stage wins without regard for vingegaard several times last year, so that too wont be new. and wont be a problem
 
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if you can operationalise that to clear betting terms, i'll take the other side of that
If Vingegaard wins the Giro d'Italia with more than 5min on Almeida, while both riders didn't crash or gotten sick during important build up moments, or the GT itself. And Vingegaard then rides the TDF, also in perfect health, he won't finish on the podium if his main opponents Pogacar, Evenepoel, Lipowitz, Ayuso stay out of harms way.

Is that too strict? You can try to give a different version.
 
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If Vingegaard wins the Giro d'Italia with more than 5min on Almeida, while both riders didn't crash or gotten sick during important build up moments, or the GT itself. And Vingegaard then rides the TDF, also in perfect health, he won't finish on the podium if his main opponents Pogacar, Evenepoel, Lipowitz, Ayuso stay out of harms way.

Is that too strict? You can try to give a different version.
i dont mind a bet so strict, but it does mean that the conditions for it wont be met in all likelihood, so is practically similar to no bet at all

a simpler way is:

conditional on a giro victory with a given margin, vingegaard will or wont make the podium in the tour

easy to resolve, no ambiguity
 
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He just knows that this year is a great time to try and win Giro so he can have won all 3, while knowing that winning TDF will be extremely difficult.

If he's actually at 100% at the Giro, he won't even finish or ride podium in TDF though.

Pretty much this. Winning all 3 GTs is a nice feat. Vingo and JV probably realized that a very likely Giro win is better than a way less likely Tour win.
 
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i dont mind a bet so strict, but it does mean that the conditions for it wont be met in all likelihood, so is practically similar to no bet at all

a simpler way is:

conditional on a giro victory with a given margin, vingegaard will or wont make the podium in the tour

easy to resolve, no ambiguity
That's true, not need to overcomplicate it. It's just an avatar bet anyway. I would put that margin on 6min.

I upped it by 1min because being less strict, if Almeida crashes or gets sick, it'll be much easier to get a 5min head start. If he stays upright, 6min lead is doable but hard.