Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Netserk]

That's true, not need to overcomplicate it. It's just an avatar bet anyway. I would put that margin on 6min.

I upped it by 1min because being less strict, if Almeida crashes or gets sick, it'll be much easier to get a 5min head start. If he stays upright, 6min lead is doable but hard.

happy with that.

duration somewhere between 1 week and 1 month after the tour?

 

[Tim Cahill]

This organisation needs to stop paying people millions to actively ruin the enjoyment of their race, in fact I think it should stop paying people to race it full stop, whether it be Froome, Lance, Vingegaard, Contador or Pogacar. If they don't want to show up then they can have the gap on their palmares, so be it.

 

[YavorD]

If I extrapolate his second grand tour performance in 2023 & 2025 (the Vuelta) and apply it to this years second GT on his schedule (the Tour of course), then IMO the drop off in level from one to another is noticeable. Now maybe he plans to do the Giro at something like 90% and still win it - perhaps. But the Tour de France is raced so fast and hard these days that any bad day is going to be bad news.

I don't think that's entirely true.
Doing the Vuelta after the Tour (against Pogacar) is harder that doing the Tour after the Giro against a competition you can beat on 90-95%.

In order to compete against Pogacar he has to peak, and they way Visma were raving 2023 and 2025, to to very deep. Thus a drop in performance is perfectly logical.
Whereas if he can win the Giro without peaking (this would be perfectly possible in 2024 like field) AND without going unnecessarily deep, he can enter the Tour in a better shape than he's been in the Giro.
The only question is, can he beat Almeida below his peak?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I doubt the team isn't going all in on the Giro, because otherwise there would be no point in (allegedly) letting go of Yates over it. But of course it's also possible that they're hoping one of their other riders can finish on the podium in the Tour if Vingegaard is too tired after the Giro and/or he's been surpassed by riders from other teams.

 

[Rackham]

I don't think that's entirely true.
Doing the Vuelta after the Tour (against Pogacar) is harder that doing the Tour after the Giro against a competition you can beat on 90-95%.

In order to compete against Pogacar he has to peak, and they way Visma were raving 2023 and 2025, to to very deep. Thus a drop in performance is perfectly logical.
Whereas if he can win the Giro without peaking (this would be perfectly possible in 2024 like field) AND without going unnecessarily deep, he can enter the Tour in a better shape than he's been in the Giro.
The only question is, can he beat Almeida below his peak?

Not so long ago people here agreed that Vingegaard had a much higher performance level after an altitude camp. It's something worth remembering.

I don't think reaching a definitive % of max level is so easy to predict in any case but we'll assume he does altitude camp > Giro > rest > maybe 10 days or so of training again > Tour.

I just don't see the infallible logic here is deliberately choosing to be weaker in the Tour just to chase a Giro victory. No offense to the Giro but it's one of those races that ranks higher in cycling fan circles than it does to sponsors and teams.

 

[Berniece]

happy with that.

duration somewhere between 1 week and 1 month after the tour?

Sounds good 👍

 

[Netserk]

Sounds good 👍

do you want the duration of the avatar to be one week or one month (or something else)?

 

[YavorD]

Not so long ago people here agreed that Vingegaard had a much higher performance level after an altitude camp. It's something worth remembering.

I don't think reaching a definitive % of max level is so easy to predict in any case but we'll assume he does altitude camp > Giro > rest > maybe 10 days or so of training again > Tour.

I just don't see the infallible logic here is deliberately choosing to be weaker in the Tour just to chase a Giro victory. No offense to the Giro but it's one of those races that ranks higher in cycling fan circles than it does to sponsors and teams.

To be honest every race ranks higher to the fans than it does to the sponsors and teams.

Still, I don't think it's a given that he'll have dip in performance. If he goes through the Giro smoothly, in a rather controlled race he should be able to even improve during the Tour. Obviously if Almeida is able to give him hell and he has to go deep, as he did in TdF 2023 and 2025, he will be very tired after the Giro.
But as you mentioned these 2 Vueltas as a base in your theory that his performance will drop, I think that if Pog wasn't present in these 2 Tours and Ving was able to just control the race, he'd be much stronger in the Vuelta afterwards

 

[AmRacer]

VLAB wants to win at least one GT and Jonas complete his GT set.

 

[Berniece]

do you want the duration of the avatar to be one week or one month (or something else)?

Oh my bad, I thought you meant 1 month and 1 week. As in until the end of the summer, basically the whole of august and that 1 week in july.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Could have a GT between almida, Carapaz, hindley, pelizzari, landa, buitrago, gall, Gee, enric mas, storrer, and o'conner. After making the mythical Simon yates so unhappy he quit the sport, and now this, visma should be classed as a terrorist organisation. I pray that Jonas sees the light and goes all in on the tour so we have some false hope that he-who-shall-not-be-named can be vanquished

 

[Netserk]

Oh my bad, I thought you meant 1 month and 1 week. As in until the end of the summer, basically the whole of august and that 1 week in july.

until the end of august is good.

 

[vappaxbipmv]

I doubt the team isn't going all in on the Giro, because otherwise there would be no point in (allegedly) letting go of Yates over it. But of course it's also possible that they're hoping one of their other riders can finish on the podium in the Tour if Vingegaard is too tired after the Giro and/or he's been surpassed by riders from other teams.

Apart from Jonas, I don't think any of their other riders can even top 5 the Tour, let alone podium

 

[Berniece]

Apart from Jonas, I don't think any of their other riders can even top 5 the Tour, let alone podium

Jorgenson in TDF 2024 might?

 

[vappaxbipmv]

Jorgenson in TDF 2024 might?

Podium? No chance. Top 5 maybe

 

[Red Rick]

If Vingegaard wins the Giro d'Italia with more than 5min on Almeida, while both riders didn't crash or gotten sick during important build up moments, or the GT itself. And Vingegaard then rides the TDF, also in perfect health, he won't finish on the podium if his main opponents Pogacar, Evenepoel, Lipowitz, Ayuso stay out of harms way.

Is that too strict? You can try to give a different version.

Roglic still getting top 3 on specific mountain stages despite a really bad TdF prep only means one thing.

I'll take Vingegaards side on that, and it's time for Red Rick to bet his organs again

 

[Tanakka]

unfortunately, vingegaard insists on making a mistake

Why would it be a mistake?

I am one of those who thinks the 'all 3 GTs' accomplishment is overrated;
TdF is way too important compared to the other two GTs and technically there aren't big differences such as in MSR vs. RVV vs. PR vs GdL.

Nonetheless, regardless of I personally feel about it, it still holds quite some value.
So it totally makes sense. It matters enough.
Especially for a guy who doesn't win classics at all.

 

[Netserk]

Why would it be a mistake?

I am one of those who thinks the 'all 3 GTs' accomplishment is overrated;
TdF is way too important compared to the other two GTs and technically there aren't big differences such as in MSR vs. RVV vs. PR vs GdL.

Nonetheless, regardless of I personally feel about it, it still holds quite some value.
So it totally makes sense. It matters enough.
Especially for a guy who doesn't win classics at all.

because hed likely still be the favourite for the vuelta if he rode tour-vuelta instead

 

[Berniece]

Podium? No chance. Top 5 maybe

Podium definitely not, top 5 I can see hapenning

 

[tp4493]

Podium definitely not, top 5 I can see hapenning

Who do you expect to be Vetter than Jonas?

 

[Heston]

Of course it makes sense to go for the hattrick of winning all 3 Grand Tours, whether is worsens his shape in the Tour or not.

A sound choice.

 

[Berniece]

Who do you expect to be Vetter than Jonas?

That post was about Jorgenson. In case of Vingegaard, if he's actually at his best at the Giro I think his level will be similar to Vuelta 2025. In that case I can see Evenepoel, Lipowitz, maybe even Ayuso and Del Toro being better.

 

[Heston]

That post was about Jorgenson. In case of Vingegaard, if he's actually at his best at the Giro I think his level will be similar to Vuelta 2025. In that case I can see Evenepoel, Lipowitz, maybe even Ayuso and Del Toro being better.

Ayuso better than Jonas' Vuelta 2025 level? Now thats a funny joke.

 

[Tanakka]

because hed likely still be the favourite for the vuelta if he rode tour-vuelta instead

Winning a second Vuelta doesn't matter compared to completing the full TdF-Giro-Vuelta package.
Now, if we were talking about 'more Tours' it would be one thing, but one more Vuelta?
Meh.

 

[Berniece]

Ayuso better than Jonas' Vuelta 2025 level? Now thats a funny joke.

I would expect Ayuso to get better at LIDL, what's the point otherwise of him riding there. I think LIDL is hoping on a podium spot