Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

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Jonas Vingegaard will miss his season debut at the UAE Tour through illness and injury. Vingegaard suffered the injury following a training crash involving an incident with an amateur rider. The Dane now has just one race scheduled before his Giro d'Italia debut as he attempts the Giro-Tour de France double.

And a new physical coach on top of that? A weird start to the season. Hopefully there isn't more to it than a row of coincidences.
 
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Measures in terms of training in a team, with a team car or when training solo to at least have some escort, for example a staff member on a electric scoter. That realistically is now becoming a need, something teams will need to start providing to assist their riders when confronted with needy fans on a long "solo" training sessions. Privacy is unfortunately not a luxury they still have.

By the way UAE has started applying such measures:


 
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My recommended strategy on the Loze stage: He was extremely explosive last year, even so much so that his explosivity was closer to Pogacar than his extended climbing level.

If he wanted to go all in, he should have (with the help of 2-3 teammates) done 10 w/kg on the steep bottom part of the first climb (Glandon). Pogacar follows Vingegaard everywhere, this can also be exploited.
After Vingegaard and Pogacar both do 10 W/kg on the bottom of the first climb of a monster stage, no one knows what would have happened later. This is the definition of going all in and either of them could have completely collapsed later on.

(If Pogacar dos not follow, just abort immediately or go for a 150km solo attempt).

Visma is great at the satellite rider game, but they were overfocused on it the last tour. Half the use of a satellite rider is to be a threat so that Pogacar has to follow (which worked great in 2022 but is not necessary anymore because Pogacar will now follow anyway.)
From the Remco thread, but replying here, @Peyresourde .

I agree with that strategy. What amuse me is when Vingegaard and others say things like, “I’m willing to sacrifice second place to go for first,” when they clearly do not mean it in an absolute sense. I think many intepret this to mean that he doiesen't care where he ends up unless he wins, but that is not was what he means.

I think what they actually mean is that they are willing to risk losing second place, but not the podium entirely. For example, attacking very hard on the Madeleine could, in theory, have cost Vingegaard time to Lipowitz if Lipowitz had ridden more intelligently. But there was almost no realistic scenario where Vingegaard would lose the podium altogether because of such a move.

Here is how I see Vingegaard’s approach on stages 18 and 19:
  1. He had already used a lot of energy in earlier attempts where he was beaten. There were probably not many serious attacks left in him, which we also saw in his defensive riding before and on La Plagne.
  2. He wanted to secure second place.
  3. The team still seemed to believe* in the idea that fatigue would affect Pogacar in the third week if they made the big mountain stages extremely hard. Their plan could have worked in two ways on Madeleine: either Vingegaard drops Pogacar and uses Jorgenson in the valley, or he attacks early and simply makes the stage very hard before Col de la Loze. They had not really tried this fatigue based strategy before stage 18. On the final climb, however, Vingegaard did not have the legs. That was clear from how long he waited to attack and how little explosiveness there was when he finally did.
  4. The La Plagne stage was shortened, so their original plan must have changed. I suspect they intended to go all in on the steep section of Col du Pré. But, as on Cime de la Bonette the year before, Vingegaard likely called it off because he did not feel strong enough. At that point, a stage win was probably the only realistic goal, and he was not strong on La Plagne. If he had been, his racing would have looked very different.
*According to a recent interview with Grisha Niermann, they still believe in some version of this fatigue strategy.
 
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