Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[iBanesto]

Vingegaard out of UAE Tour according to PCS.

https://www.tntsports.co.uk/cycling...italia-tour-de-france_sto23267288/story.shtml

Jonas Vingegaard will miss his season debut at the UAE Tour through illness and injury. Vingegaard suffered the injury following a training crash involving an incident with an amateur rider. The Dane now has just one race scheduled before his Giro d'Italia debut as he attempts the Giro-Tour de France double. ​

 

[Danskebjerge]

Jonas Vingegaard will miss his season debut at the UAE Tour through illness and injury. Vingegaard suffered the injury following a training crash involving an incident with an amateur rider. The Dane now has just one race scheduled before his Giro d'Italia debut as he attempts the Giro-Tour de France double.

And a new physical coach on top of that? A weird start to the season. Hopefully there isn't more to it than a row of coincidences.

 

[RedheadDane]

Is it just me, or is this a rather strange wording?

First the teammate retires, then a crash, now his coach leaves: what now for Jonas Vingegaard?

The cards have looked stacked against the Dane and his team so far in 2026 – now he has just one race till the Giro d'Italia

www.cyclingweekly.com

"The teammate"?

 

[fenns]

can see him missing the Giro

 

[CyclistAbi]

Measures in terms of training in a team, with a team car or when training solo to at least have some escort, for example a staff member on a electric scoter. That realistically is now becoming a need, something teams will need to start providing to assist their riders when confronted with needy fans on a long "solo" training sessions. Privacy is unfortunately not a luxury they still have.

By the way UAE has started applying such measures:

'This is about getting more views' – UAE Team Emirates-XRG using outriders to protect Tadej Pogačar from unwanted attention while training

A string of incidents, including with Pogačar himself, prompted the move

www.cyclingweekly.com

Los equipos toman medidas con los cicloturistas: motos para proteger a los profesionales

Las discrepancias entre aficionados y profesionales durante los entrenamientos van en aumento. Matxin, mánager deportivo del UAE, lo analiza para AS.

as.com

 

[Pozzovivo]

My recommended strategy on the Loze stage: He was extremely explosive last year, even so much so that his explosivity was closer to Pogacar than his extended climbing level.

If he wanted to go all in, he should have (with the help of 2-3 teammates) done 10 w/kg on the steep bottom part of the first climb (Glandon). Pogacar follows Vingegaard everywhere, this can also be exploited.
After Vingegaard and Pogacar both do 10 W/kg on the bottom of the first climb of a monster stage, no one knows what would have happened later. This is the definition of going all in and either of them could have completely collapsed later on.

(If Pogacar dos not follow, just abort immediately or go for a 150km solo attempt).

Visma is great at the satellite rider game, but they were overfocused on it the last tour. Half the use of a satellite rider is to be a threat so that Pogacar has to follow (which worked great in 2022 but is not necessary anymore because Pogacar will now follow anyway.)

From the Remco thread, but replying here, @Peyresourde .

I agree with that strategy. What amuse me is when Vingegaard and others say things like, “I’m willing to sacrifice second place to go for first,” when they clearly do not mean it in an absolute sense. I think many intepret this to mean that he doiesen't care where he ends up unless he wins, but that is not was what he means.

I think what they actually mean is that they are willing to risk losing second place, but not the podium entirely. For example, attacking very hard on the Madeleine could, in theory, have cost Vingegaard time to Lipowitz if Lipowitz had ridden more intelligently. But there was almost no realistic scenario where Vingegaard would lose the podium altogether because of such a move.

Here is how I see Vingegaard’s approach on stages 18 and 19:

1. He had already used a lot of energy in earlier attempts where he was beaten. There were probably not many serious attacks left in him, which we also saw in his defensive riding before and on La Plagne.
2. He wanted to secure second place.
3. The team still seemed to believe* in the idea that fatigue would affect Pogacar in the third week if they made the big mountain stages extremely hard. Their plan could have worked in two ways on Madeleine: either Vingegaard drops Pogacar and uses Jorgenson in the valley, or he attacks early and simply makes the stage very hard before Col de la Loze. They had not really tried this fatigue based strategy before stage 18. On the final climb, however, Vingegaard did not have the legs. That was clear from how long he waited to attack and how little explosiveness there was when he finally did.
4. The La Plagne stage was shortened, so their original plan must have changed. I suspect they intended to go all in on the steep section of Col du Pré. But, as on Cime de la Bonette the year before, Vingegaard likely called it off because he did not feel strong enough. At that point, a stage win was probably the only realistic goal, and he was not strong on La Plagne. If he had been, his racing would have looked very different.

*According to a recent interview with Grisha Niermann, they still believe in some version of this fatigue strategy.

 

[SHAD0W93]

*According to a recent interview with Grisha Niermann, they still believe in some version of this fatigue strategy.

And they will get egg on their face again because Vingegaard has been the one getting affected by it.

 

[Pozzovivo]

And they will get egg on their face again because Vingegaard has been the one getting affected by it.

Yeah, well, he was mega inconsistent in the fresh efforts. The first ITT was very bad, same with Hautacam. Peyragudes and Ventoux very fresh and very good. Big mtn stages are a bit hard to judge but certaintly not very good on any of them.

 

[Peyresourde]

From the Remco thread, but replying here, @Peyresourde .

I agree with that strategy. What amuse me is when Vingegaard and others say things like, “I’m willing to sacrifice second place to go for first,” when they clearly do not mean it in an absolute sense. I think many intepret this to mean that he doiesen't care where he ends up unless he wins, but that is not was what he means.

I think what they actually mean is that they are willing to risk losing second place, but not the podium entirely. For example, attacking very hard on the Madeleine could, in theory, have cost Vingegaard time to Lipowitz if Lipowitz had ridden more intelligently. But there was almost no realistic scenario where Vingegaard would lose the podium altogether because of such a move.

Here is how I see Vingegaard’s approach on stages 18 and 19:

1. He had already used a lot of energy in earlier attempts where he was beaten. There were probably not many serious attacks left in him, which we also saw in his defensive riding before and on La Plagne.
2. He wanted to secure second place.
3. The team still seemed to believe* in the idea that fatigue would affect Pogacar in the third week if they made the big mountain stages extremely hard. Their plan could have worked in two ways on Madeleine: either Vingegaard drops Pogacar and uses Jorgenson in the valley, or he attacks early and simply makes the stage very hard before Col de la Loze. They had not really tried this fatigue based strategy before stage 18. On the final climb, however, Vingegaard did not have the legs. That was clear from how long he waited to attack and how little explosiveness there was when he finally did.
4. The La Plagne stage was shortened, so their original plan must have changed. I suspect they intended to go all in on the steep section of Col du Pré. But, as on Cime de la Bonette the year before, Vingegaard likely called it off because he did not feel strong enough. At that point, a stage win was probably the only realistic goal, and he was not strong on La Plagne. If he had been, his racing would have looked very different.

*According to a recent interview with Grisha Niermann, they still believe in some version of this fatigue strategy.

I never believed in the fatigue thing, even in 2022 and 2023 (maybe there was some merit in 2023 as pogacar had a disrupted prep). The stages in 2022 where Vingegaard dropped Pogacar were not that hard. The important thing was that Vingegaard was slightly stronger anyway and that Pogacar spent more energy than Vingegaard on Galibier and Spandelles. So Vingegaard started the last climbs with a relative advantage.

As for making stage after stage hard so that Pogacar cracks in the 3rd week, I also do not believe in that. In general, my opinion ist that every decent GC rider now recovers almost 'perfectly' for the next stage unless there are circumstances involved. (bad preparation, illness, crashes, extremely excessive waste of energy compared to rivals). Of course, I am talking about modern routes, if there were 5 mountain stages in a row like 2011 Giro or 2001 Tour, than there may be an effect.

The only thing that were slight real weaknesses of Pogacar were heat and long climbs (and maybe the equipment). But both of these were just relative to Vingegaard and not very pronounced at all. The more important thing was that Vingegaard had slighty better w/kg those 2 Tours.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The more important thing was that Vingegaard had slighty better w/kg those 2 Tours.

Generally agreed with your post but not sure about 2023: they were evenly matched until the TT and Loze collapse and Pog dropped Vingo multiple times as well. I would say his prep could've affected his 3rd week then.

 

[saunaking]

And they will get egg on their face again because Vingegaard has been the one getting affected by it.

The only ones with egg on their faces are UAE. They somehow lost two tours in a row with Tadej freaking Pogacar

 

[Peyresourde]

Generally agreed with your post but not sure about 2023: they were evenly matched until the TT and Loze collapse and Pog dropped Vingo multiple times as well. I would say his prep could've affected his 3rd week then.

Yes, 2023 is the only year where it could have had an effect. Although it was also rumored that Pogacar had a stomach bug in the 3rd week. He was also really pale even the stages following Loze, which should not simply be the result of fatigue. And Pogacar had pretty equal watts to Vingegaard for 1 and a half weeks, but Vingegaard's best performances were Loze and the TT which were better than Pogacar's best in that Tour. (He could have matched it on Joux Planes without the standoff)

 

[Pozzovivo]

GC rider now recovers almost 'perfectly' for the next stage unless there are circumstances involved. (bad preparation, illness, crashes, extremely excessive waste of energy compared to rivals).

Which is what Pogacar did on the cobbled stage in 22, imo. He had already spent a massive bullet for 13 seconds gain. Very arrogant riding that year in general. He rode like he was unbeatable and didn't realize that JV would be at his level or even slightly stronger. And he also had a very bad team around him while Visma was just crazy strong that year.

 

[Pozzovivo]

The only ones with egg on their faces are UAE. They somehow lost two tours in a row with Tadej freaking Pogacar

They were quite poor given their talent and resources. Much has changed since, but thank the lord they are still chaotic and tactically bad. Cost them the Giro this year which was hilarious (and very nice for Simon Yates).

 

[Pozzovivo]

Yes, 2023 is the only year where it could have had an effect. Although it was also rumored that Pogacar had a stomach bug in the 3rd week. He was also really pale even the stages following Loze, which should not simply be the result of fatigue. And Pogacar had pretty equal watts to Vingegaard for 1 and a half weeks, but Vingegaard's best performances were Loze and the TT which were better than Pogacar's best in that Tour. (He could have matched it on Joux Planes without the standoff)

How good was Puy du dome really compared to La Loze? This must be a difficult climb to rate given its peculiar profile.

 

[Peyresourde]

Which is what Pogacar did on the cobbled stage in 22, imo. He had already spent a massive bullet for 13 seconds gain. Very arrogant riding that year in general. I rode like he was unbeatable and didn't realize that JV would be at his level or even slightly stronger. And he also had a very bad team around him while Visma was just crazy strong that year.

I think in 2022 their equipment was also crap (they already had the V4RS like in 23 and 24 but bad tires, slow wheels and no aero helmets on flat stages.) This may have cost him Flanders and 30s in the Tour cobble stage (compared to if he had used the 2023 equipment). Meanwhile Visma was on the Cervelo S5 in 2022, which is still to this date one of the fastest bikes in the peloton.

Puy de Dome was close to Loze (I have it as 87 vs 90 for Loze). The pacing is always suboptimal on a profile like Puy de Dome.