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Julian Alaphilippe Discussion Thread

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Mar 6, 2011
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Re: Re:

Koronin said:
Moviefan1203 said:
spalco said:
^^
I don't see why his chances would be worse today than yesterday. He defended well in a difficult stage he didn't crack, and he still has a decentish advantage.

One more day gone.
I think he went pretty deep the last two days though.
I'd say last 3 days.
Yeah you dont win a GT TT without going deep
 
Re: Julian Alaphilippe

Ala may surprise us, yet. He gets a rest day and then two stages that stay off the high mountains. But a 1:35 lead is probably not enough for the stages on Thursday through Saturday. May be a bit like Thomas Voeckler in 2011.
 
Re:

spalco said:
^^
I don't see why his chances would be worse today than yesterday. He defended well in a difficult stage he didn't crack, and he still has a decentish advantage.

One more day gone.
On the Tourmalet he looked like one of the best climbers, but that took a lot out of him. On Sunday he lost over a minute in 6 km. He's beginning to crack, fatigue is creeping in, which is logical for someone who did't prepare to ride for the GC over three weeks. In the Alps he will be a sitting duck. He'll probably finish between 4th and 7th in Paris.
 
Re: Re:

Pantani_lives said:
spalco said:
^^
I don't see why his chances would be worse today than yesterday. He defended well in a difficult stage he didn't crack, and he still has a decentish advantage.

One more day gone.
On the Tourmalet he looked like one of the best climbers, but that took a lot out of him. On Sunday he lost over a minute in 6 km. He's beginning to crack, fatigue is creeping in, which is logical for someone who did't prepare to ride for the GC over three weeks. In the Alps he will be a sitting duck. He'll probably finish between 4th and 7th in Paris.
in his blog, Fuglsang said that he met Alaphilippe during his recon of the Alpine stages before the Tour (and was wondering why a KOM contender would do a recon) - and he also visited the time trial course before the race. I'd say, he had the gc in his mind going into the race.
 
Apr 12, 2017
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1,695
Re: Re:

search said:
Pantani_lives said:
spalco said:
^^
I don't see why his chances would be worse today than yesterday. He defended well in a difficult stage he didn't crack, and he still has a decentish advantage.

One more day gone.
On the Tourmalet he looked like one of the best climbers, but that took a lot out of him. On Sunday he lost over a minute in 6 km. He's beginning to crack, fatigue is creeping in, which is logical for someone who did't prepare to ride for the GC over three weeks. In the Alps he will be a sitting duck. He'll probably finish between 4th and 7th in Paris.
in his blog, Fuglsang said that he met Alaphilippe during his recon of the Alpine stages before the Tour (and was wondering why a KOM contender would do a recon) - and he also visited the time trial course before the race. I'd say, he had the gc in his mind going into the race.
What a weird conclusion. Why wouldn't a KOM contender do recons of mountain stages...
Dries Devenyns, who did the recons with Alaphilippe, said they were targeting stage wins. And doing recons for that.
 
Mar 6, 2011
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Re: Re:

Valanga said:
search said:
Pantani_lives said:
spalco said:
^^
I don't see why his chances would be worse today than yesterday. He defended well in a difficult stage he didn't crack, and he still has a decentish advantage.

One more day gone.
On the Tourmalet he looked like one of the best climbers, but that took a lot out of him. On Sunday he lost over a minute in 6 km. He's beginning to crack, fatigue is creeping in, which is logical for someone who did't prepare to ride for the GC over three weeks. In the Alps he will be a sitting duck. He'll probably finish between 4th and 7th in Paris.
in his blog, Fuglsang said that he met Alaphilippe during his recon of the Alpine stages before the Tour (and was wondering why a KOM contender would do a recon) - and he also visited the time trial course before the race. I'd say, he had the gc in his mind going into the race.
What a weird conclusion. Why wouldn't a KOM contender do recons of mountain stages...
Dries Devenyns, who did the recons with Alaphilippe, said they were targeting stage wins. And doing recons for that.
Surprised me as well, surely it's still worthwhile doing recons even if you are only interested in stage wins. It doesn't mean he wasn't thinking GC the whole time however
 
Apr 3, 2016
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This feels more like Roglic giro than Yates ‘18 giro tbh. Fatigue creeping in, but still strong on fantastic form. If he can limit losses to what we saw yesterday on the coming alpine stages, it could be extremely competitive. I still feel like he has a chance, but difficult to ignore the upward trajectory of Thomas, but god I hope he doesn’t take it. Thomas still getting dropped by Pinot and I do t think it’s entirely a conservative approach to energy management, he has already cracked a bit this year.
 
He could've just stayed with Thomas and Kruijswijk, not blow himself up and then not get dropped from that group and he'd have looked a lot better yesterday.

Obviously he's not the best climber in the race, and obviously he's likely on the downhill, but I'm not sure it's quite that bad yet.
 
Re:

Oude Geuze said:
This feels more like Roglic giro than Yates ‘18 giro tbh. Fatigue creeping in, but still strong on fantastic form. If he can limit losses to what we saw yesterday on the coming alpine stages, it could be extremely competitive. I still feel like he has a chance, but difficult to ignore the upward trajectory of Thomas, but god I hope he doesn’t take it. Thomas still getting dropped by Pinot and I do t think it’s entirely a conservative approach to energy management, he has already cracked a bit this year.
Eh, what upward trajectory?
 
Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
Oude Geuze said:
This feels more like Roglic giro than Yates ‘18 giro tbh. Fatigue creeping in, but still strong on fantastic form. If he can limit losses to what we saw yesterday on the coming alpine stages, it could be extremely competitive. I still feel like he has a chance, but difficult to ignore the upward trajectory of Thomas, but god I hope he doesn’t take it. Thomas still getting dropped by Pinot and I do t think it’s entirely a conservative approach to energy management, he has already cracked a bit this year.
Eh, what upward trajectory?
The one where he went from being the best on PdBF to getting soundly dropped in the Pyrenees
 
Re: Re:

Red Rick said:
tobydawq said:
Oude Geuze said:
This feels more like Roglic giro than Yates ‘18 giro tbh. Fatigue creeping in, but still strong on fantastic form. If he can limit losses to what we saw yesterday on the coming alpine stages, it could be extremely competitive. I still feel like he has a chance, but difficult to ignore the upward trajectory of Thomas, but god I hope he doesn’t take it. Thomas still getting dropped by Pinot and I do t think it’s entirely a conservative approach to energy management, he has already cracked a bit this year.
Eh, what upward trajectory?
The one where he went from being the best on PdBF to getting soundly dropped in the Pyrenees
So the mountains being higher is the only thing with an upwardness there.
 
My guess is that he will eventually end between 6th and 10 in GC. First two stages in the Alps should be okay, possibly lose yellow but not by that much and then lose a few minutes on Val Thorens.
 
Apr 12, 2017
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Red Rick said:
He could've just stayed with Thomas and Kruijswijk, not blow himself up and then not get dropped from that group and he'd have looked a lot better yesterday.

Obviously he's not the best climber in the race, and obviously he's likely on the downhill, but I'm not sure it's quite that bad yet.
Perhaps he could have, but that's not his style. And I hope he never changes that! We have enough defensive riders already. He tried, he blew himself up and lost some time but managed to limit his losses on pure willpower.

I don't think that will be good enough in the Alps though, and I'm afraid he'll crack completely. As soon as he's out of yellow (perhaps Galibier, else Iseran) motivation will drop and fatigue will skyrocket.

Between 6th and 10 in GC is my guess as well. Hope I'm wrong though :)
 
Re: Re:

Valanga said:
Red Rick said:
He could've just stayed with Thomas and Kruijswijk, not blow himself up and then not get dropped from that group and he'd have looked a lot better yesterday.

Obviously he's not the best climber in the race, and obviously he's likely on the downhill, but I'm not sure it's quite that bad yet.
Perhaps he could have, but that's not his style. And I hope he never changes that! We have enough defensive riders already. He tried, he blew himself up and lost some time but managed to limit his losses on pure willpower.

I don't think that will be good enough in the Alps though, and I'm afraid he'll crack completely. As soon as he's out of yellow (perhaps Galibier, else Iseran) motivation will drop and fatigue will skyrocket.

Between 6th and 10 in GC is my guess as well. Hope I'm wrong though :)
I don't think it was wrong to try to go with Pinot / Bernal but, having been dropped from that group, I didn't agree with him immediately working on the front of the Thomas group. Are Thomas/Poels and Kruiswijk going to stop riding if he sits on ? I don't think so with Pinot, Bernal and Buchman up the road. That mistake cost him some time but overall he was quite a bit better than Thomas in the Pyrenees.

The climbs in the Alps are more difficult for him but the descents are a lot better for him and nobody is talking much about that
 
Mar 19, 2017
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Re: Re:

Eyeballs Out said:
Valanga said:
Red Rick said:
He could've just stayed with Thomas and Kruijswijk, not blow himself up and then not get dropped from that group and he'd have looked a lot better yesterday.

Obviously he's not the best climber in the race, and obviously he's likely on the downhill, but I'm not sure it's quite that bad yet.
Perhaps he could have, but that's not his style. And I hope he never changes that! We have enough defensive riders already. He tried, he blew himself up and lost some time but managed to limit his losses on pure willpower.

I don't think that will be good enough in the Alps though, and I'm afraid he'll crack completely. As soon as he's out of yellow (perhaps Galibier, else Iseran) motivation will drop and fatigue will skyrocket.

Between 6th and 10 in GC is my guess as well. Hope I'm wrong though :)
I don't think it was wrong to try to go with Pinot / Bernal but, having been dropped from that group, I didn't agree with him immediately working on the front of the Thomas group. Are Thomas/Poels and Kruiswijk going to stop riding if he sits on ? I don't think so with Pinot, Bernal and Buchman up the road. That mistake cost him some time but overall he was quite a bit better than Thomas in the Pyrenees.

The climbs in the Alps are more difficult for him but the descents are a lot better for him and nobody is talking much about that
He will not able to take advantage of the descents now that he's sitting in the group of favorites.
 

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