If Pogacar can start the Mur in a good position you would expect him to win. He was absent in the year he won LBL, so those previous results don't say that much. He should go full from the bottom, preferably launched by a teammate.
Who are the other candidates? One group are GT riders like Mas, Gaudu. Landa, Hindley, Bardet and Lutsenko, but they probably miss the explosiveness for a steep 1 km climb. Then there are the more explosive climbers, like Pidcock, Healy, Higuita, Ciccone and Ulissi. One of them could take it if the Slovenian has an off-day.
Soudal-QuickStep should send Van Wilder in a break, trying to avoid the unavoidable.