Lance's season so far: NOW IT ALL MAKES SENSE!

[Floyd_MANZANO]

Just joined and want to weigh in on the BIG STORY from yesterday (5/20).

Like many I'm sure, I'd been wondering, basically, what the heck has happened to Lance in 2010?

Item#1: Until a few weeks ago, he was out of shape and even fat.

Item#2: The winner of the Tour wins a big race or two in the spring. Lance has not even come close. Clearly he was not gonna feature in the '10 Tour.

Item#3: Strange very un-Lance-like behavior in all interviews. Sounded like a mumbling, vague, almost effeminate namby-pamby, muttering on about "setbacks" and stuff.

NOW IT ALL MAKES SENSE. Do you guys get this?

I really doubt we'll see Lance in the Tour. Even if they allow him to race, he knows his presence will be a huge unwanted distraction and he is, as he says, just an "old (almost retired) man". The rest of the peleton will be really annoyed now if Lance shows up at the Tour, and Lance knows that, and of course I doubt he's comfortable with that, no matter how vain and self-centered he may be.

Pretty hard for me to believe that Big George hasn't been clean. And I know Allen Lim personally (just a little) and I tend to doubt that claim of FL's as well.

But do I think Lance doped? I don't wanna, but yeah there's NO longer any doubt in my mind.

How can you claim that Lance has been clean when,

1) More or less, he was busted retroactively for using EPO in the '99 Tour.

2) More than half of his past teammates have been caught doping.

3) He won 7 Tours in a row while up against dopers? (Highly unlikely.)


Well, folks I'd like to hear from my Hugh Januss and all the others, do you guys think Lance will be riding in the Tour?

 

[Floyd_MANZANO]

Oh yeah, forgot to mention. Isn't it weird how Lance almost never had a crash or got involved in a pile-up, but in 2010 he's been in some mishap in every race he's ridden.

That just does not make sense. Unless, in the past he was doped, and also FL's texted threats have been weighing heavily on his mind this year.

 

[therhodeo]

Being doped doesn't keep you from crashing.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

LOL. This poster just joined and already knows who Hugh Januss is.

The man is a legend, I tell you.

 

[kurtinsc]

Item 2 isn't right. Lance didn't win anything prior to June in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 or 2005.

Had a good showing or two, but no wins.

 

[Jonathan]

Being doped doesn't keep you from crashing.

Armstrong never used to fall, not in the Tour and not before it. Twice already now - that's odd.

I still think he's going to ride the Tour. I mean, the chance that he will seems larger than the chance that he won't .

 

[burn it down]

a couple of years ago when i didn't want to believe that lance was doping i did a little research on the tour podium. this is what i came up with:

out of the 8 other podium finishers from the armstrong era, 6 of them (from what i could find quickly) have been caught out as dopers.

1999: Zulle, doper. Escartin, ???. armstrong winning margin 7+ minutes.

2000: Ulrich, doper. Beloki, doper. armstrong winning maargin 6+ minutes

2001: same podium. armstrong winning margin, 6+ minutes.

2002: Beloki, see bove. Rumsas, doper. armstrong winning margin 7+ minutes.

2003: Ulrich, see above. Vino, doper. winning margin minute.

2004: Kloden, ???. Baso, doper. margin 6+ minutes.

2005: basso, see above. ulrich, see above. winning margin 4+ minutes

of course, there is no way of knowing if these riders were doping during these specific tours, but that is a lot of circumstantial evidence. That he could be so much better than proven dopers is very hard for me to believe.

more interesting circumstantial evidence would be to look at the number of armstrong lieutenants who have since been caught out as dopers.

LOL. This poster just joined and already knows who Hugh Januss is.

The man is a legend, I tell you.

 

[Hugh Januss]

LOL. This poster just joined and already knows who Hugh Januss is.

The man is a legend, I tell you.

Well I am well known worldwide. But yeah not too much challenge in figuring out who that is. As an aside I will no longer be doing my list of his user names as my head is still spinning from the three or more that he burned through yesterday.

 

[isayic]

Item 2 isn't right. Lance didn't win anything prior to June in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 or 2005.

Had a good showing or two, but no wins.

In 2002 he won the Volta ao Algarve (and Landis was 2nd).

 

[isayic]

Item#2: The winner of the Tour wins a big race or two in the spring. Lance has not even come close. Clearly he was not gonna feature in the '10 Tour.

The winner of the Tour (I think that means Contador) won three stage races and had a podium spot at the Flèche Wallonne (3rd). He couldn't win the Criterium International due to his pollen allergy. But Lance lost much more time without such a problem.
I also have doubts that we will see Armstrong a the Grand Depart in july.

 

[the vagabond]

Lance is becoming Ulrich. I remember the year before Ulrich first didn't ride the Tour he seemed to be going through a lot of what Lance is going through now, in terms of being under-trained, out of shape, and dogged by acccusations - yet he was still a top favorite to podium or even win. I remember telling my brother in easrly Spring - not only won't he finish, he won't even ride.

Sure enough. I agree - Lance won't ride.

Everything about Bruyneel and Lance got a little weird for me when they hired Basso - when was that, '05? I'm like - WTF, he's gonna be busted - not only are you getting tainted goods, but either (1) you know he's lying about being clean, or (2) you're incredibly naive, neither of which made any sense to me. Again, I confided in my brother - how could they be so stupid to sign Basso? "Arrogance," he said. That seemed like a pretty poor explanation, but I guess it's as good as any.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

This has all been discussed before, though I suppose that's okay. Others have made posts showing other GT's dopers list of shame, and running through the top 10 (not just the podium) during those years as well.

If I get the time, I may merge this with the official LA thread, or close it. The only new question, and it belongs there, is if he'll enter the Tour, and if he does, what his chances are now to win.

 

[buckwheat]

I still think he's going to ride the Tour. I mean, the chance that he will seems larger than the chance that he won't .

I wonder what the chance is that he will be arrested in France?

 

[Willy_Voet]

I wonder what the chance is that he will be arrested in France?

Depends how noisy the French are leading up to July. I don't think he'll enter a hostile environment where he would be exposed to a courtroom. Notice his dismissive stance when asked about suing Landis...to paraphrase "no, I won't sue b/c of my family..."

 

[Floyd_MANZANO]

Being doped doesn't keep you from crashing.

With a moniker like The Rhodeo, I'd like to give you the benefit of the doubt on that, but I think your statement is wrong in so many ways.

1) Especially with a systematically doped team (not saying that's what LA and co. had), you can move around to wherever in the peloton you think is most advantageous and safe. You are less in a position of, "gasp, gasp, I guess I'll just hang on right here, even though I should probably, gasp, get to the front, gasp, but my legs, gasp, aren't responding right now, gasp..."

2) Look at the seemingly significantly higher rate of crashes just in the last two seasons. 2010 seems particularly notorious so far. The peloton is cleaner for sure, this means the lactate concentrations are higher. When you get in that final red zone, mistakes and crashes are much more likely.

I'll admit I feel a little guilty with my posting. I sure do admire Lance in so many ways, no matter what. But this is a forum, so we can speak freely and share our opinions, much like Voltaire in the salon, or heck even Socrates of old.

Let me say again, Big George sure seems like the kind of guy who long ago decided, "I'm talented enough that I can ride clean and make a good living and have a decent palmares, and I'm happy with all that." Dontcha think if GH was really one of the regular dopers, he would have won a whole bunch more classics and maybe some bigger stage races, too?

Lance is really in a different league than George, though. In a nutshell, Lance had much more to gain by doping. It's that old risk versus reward equation again.

 

[Floyd_MANZANO]

I wonder what the chance is that he will be arrested in France?

Well, if he has the ball to show up at the Tour, I doubt he'd be arrested unless there is new hard evidence of some PED related malfeasance.

 

[Floyd_MANZANO]

by IronGuy on May 21, 2010 at 1:39 PM

Simple way to make Landis stop bugging Lance. Lance should allow any and all of his blood samples to be re-tested. He's got nothing to hide and afterwards, even LeMond would stop talking smack.

That's brilliant. Great point.

But sadly, I think we all know the reason that will never happen. BTW, how do they preserve the blood samples for multiple years without them getting ruined, oxidized or otherwise degraded. Offhand I'd say that seems really sketchy, but I'm no expert. Anyone know?

even LeMond would stop talking smack.

Um, that's impossible, dude...

 

[dsut4392]

That's brilliant. Great point.

But sadly, I think we all know the reason that will never happen. BTW, how do they preserve the blood samples for multiple years without them getting ruined, oxidized or otherwise degraded. Offhand I'd say that seems really sketchy, but I'm no expert. Anyone know?



Um, that's impossible, dude...

Don't know why I'm bothering given your presumed pedigree, but snap-freezing samples in liquid nitrogen the storing at -70C would do perfectly fine. Simple, reliable, standard practice in research medicine for decades. I used 5+ years-old samples to isolate mRNA without issue, proteins and most pharmaceuticals are much less prone to degradation.

 

[SpartacusRox]

This has all been discussed before, though I suppose that's okay. Others have made posts showing other GT's dopers list of shame, and running through the top 10 (not just the podium) during those years as well.

If I get the time, I may merge this with the official LA thread, or close it. The only new question, and it belongs there, is if he'll enter the Tour, and if he does, what his chances are now to win.

On that topic

1. Yes he will
2. No different than they were last week

Plus to answer another poster. Armstrongs form before he crashed out looked pretty good to me 7 weeks out from the tour. If Armstrong was out of shape then god help Andy Schlecklet who is struggling to keep up with local riders. And he is the second best climber in the world and gets dropped on a bloody motorway offramp?

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

On that topic

1. Yes he will
2. No different than they were last week

Plus to answer another poster. Armstrongs form before he crashed out looked pretty good to me 7 weeks out from the tour. If Armstrong was out of shape then god help Andy Schlecklet who is struggling to keep up with local riders. And he is the second best climber in the world and gets dropped on a bloody motorway offramp?

For the top Euro riders the ToC has about as much significance to form and competition as a photoshoot for an equipment manufacturer. It's just about taking the sponsor to the new lucrative market.

Some see it as a holiday, whkile others take the chance to have a remote training camp in the desert or the Rockies and test out some pharmaceuticals.

 

[bianchigirl]

Look for OCLAESP to come up for air on the transfusion equipment anytime soon

 

[Floyd_MANZANO]

Don't know why I'm bothering given your presumed pedigree...

Are you casting such aspersions merely because my Avatar shows a sarcoptes mite rather than a gloriously antlered moose niggling around in the woods, or a cute kitten with a transected, hollowed-out citrus fruit jammed onto its head??

 

[Floyd_MANZANO]

I'll admit I feel a little guilty with my posting. I sure do admire Lance in so many ways, no matter what. But this is a forum, so we can speak freely and share our opinions, much like Voltaire in the salon, or heck even Socrates of old.

Or even discussing things nowadays with our very own Hugh Januss!

 

[Floyd_MANZANO]

3rd in T de Luxembourg, I AM NOT IMPRESSED!

Well, I guess some folks just think this Lance stuff is boring, or maybe they think I'm boring, but anyway, I find Lance's total whiffing out (compared to his former level) since coming back quite interesting.

Okay, 3rd in the Tour in 2009, that's really quite impressive, but bottom line, Lance is NOT riding anything like his former self, and I mean anything. It is a WORLD of difference when you consider the extremely fine gradients of "riding level" as you near the very top of the sport.

Look at Contador, he is performing like Lance USED to (and I guess Bert is likely to win the Tour this year).

I do NOT believe for one minute that advanced age accounts for this tremendous difference in performance with the post-comeback Lance. Possibly it is one of the factors contributing.

I suspect there is another big difference that explains this. Well, since this is posted in the Clinic section I will just leave it at that...

 

[Colm.Murphy]

Well, I guess some folks just think this Lance stuff is boring, or maybe they think I'm boring, but anyway, I find Lance's total whiffing out (compared to his former level) since coming back quite interesting.

Okay, 3rd in the Tour in 2009, that's really quite impressive, but bottom line, Lance is NOT riding anything like his former self, and I mean anything. It is a WORLD of difference when you consider the extremely fine gradients of "riding level" as you near the very top of the sport.

Look at Contador, he is performing like Lance USED to (and I guess Bert is likely to win the Tour this year).

I do NOT believe for one minute that advanced age accounts for this tremendous difference in performance with the post-comeback Lance. Possibly it is one of the factors contributing.

I suspect there is another big difference that explains this. Well, since this is posted in the Clinic section I will just leave it at that...

WRT Lance and his performance, I attribute it to the time he had taken off. Losing that fine edge of the upper limit of performance does occur, and to me, it happens when the time off, and this does not factor age at all.