With several stage races coming in few days (thus a large number of chances for a win) – it is a proper time for a first summary.
At the moment, six WT teams remain winless. These are: Astana, Bahrain, CCC, Groupama, Ineos, Jumbo.
First thought: it does not look very differently than last year. At the same point of time (early February) in 2019 we have the following seven WT teams still waiting for a season win: Ag2R, Astana, Bahrain, Dimension Data, Groupama, Jumbo and Sunweb. So four teams out of these seven are the same in 2019 and 2020 (Astana, Bahrain, Groupama and Jumbo).
Second thought: this season, this competition seems to be a wide open. With the usual suspects (NTT = ex DD and Israel Start-Up = ex Katusha) being out of competition very early, we need to seek for another candidate.
To assess on the chances of each team concerned, we should take into account where they are starting in the closest days to come, what squad they are fielding and against what competition.
Astana:
As they may feel particularly motivated now, I believe that some of them will win shortly, either in Saudi Arabia or in Valencia (I. Izaguirre, L.L. Sanchez?)
Bahrain:
They should prove able to win a stage in Saudi Arabia (with Haussler or the resurrected Cav, for example). If not, some chances should arise in Valencia (Bilbao, Mohoric, Poels, Teuns), but it will be definitely more difficult there.
CCC:
They send a strong line-up to Valencia (GvA, Trentin)– but the competition is strong as well. It could prove difficult to grab a stage win, while winning the GC is completely out of reach. In Etoile de Besseges, the competition is clearly weaker. But they send their B (or even C) squad to this race. Hardly can see one of them winning a stage there.
Groupama:
In the closest days to come, they only start in Besseges, with their second-tier squad. If they do not win anything there, the next chance is Tour de la Provence (Pinot or Gaudu may take a win there).
Ineos:
Quite a strong squad in Valencia (Tao, Kwiat, Moscon), still without obvious candidates for a stage win. But then they are going to Columbia with Bernal and Carapaz, and their first season win may likely come from there.
Jumbo:
Normally, Groenewegen should win at least one out of three flat sprint finishes in Valencia.
It seems that, at the end of the day, it is between Bahrain, CCC and Groupama (with no clear favourite).