Le Mével a chance for top5 GC now ?

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I don't think he can get a top 10.

But then again... I thought the same about Pinotti.

 

[blaxland]

Top 5 ? not so sure,but a top 10 finish is probable.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Anything is possible. He is on the team that has landed a rider in the top 10 in the Tour since 2008. So why not do something at the Giro?

Counterintuitive though this may sound, if you get into the top 10 at the Tour it's easier to stay there. The racing is more controlled. And the climbs are steeper, nastier and more numerous (and close together) in the Giro, so that it's possible that he could come almost anywhere. Top 5, he's going to need Arroyo-esque fortune and defensive riding, but that Garmin have put guys in the top 10 of the Tour is practically irrelevant to the Giro, which is far less in tune with the kind of race Garmin prefer.

 

[roundabout]

Counterintuitive though this may sound, if you get into the top 10 at the Tour it's easier to stay there. The racing is more controlled. And the climbs are steeper, nastier and more numerous (and close together) in the Giro, so that it's possible that he could come almost anywhere. Top 5, he's going to need Arroyo-esque fortune and defensive riding, but that Garmin have put guys in the top 10 of the Tour is practically irrelevant to the Giro, which is far less in tune with the kind of race Garmin prefer.

To me it's not so much a question of preference for a particular type of race but rather the ability of some Garmin riders to exceed expectations in Grand Tours (even in controlled race a rider like Wiggins finishing 4th would have been a surprise to me pre-2009).

Right now I am a bit uncertain how Le Mevel will go in the high mountains but it seems that the form is there. Hopefully he can win a stage if the GC project doesn't work out.

 

[cyclingfanatik]

Lets see, here's my top 10 in no particular order:

AC
Roman K
Purito
Nibbles
Scarponi
Menchov
Anton
X-8
X-9
X-10

In those three spots i'd put Le Mevel, Kiserlovski, Sella, Serpa, Kiryienka and mabye Lovkvist. I says he's about 60% to get in the top ten assuming menchov crashes out and Purito/Anton collide at least once.

 

[Midnightfright]

Still unsure about him. Think he will still lose time on atleast a couple of mountain stages. No doubt he seems in form though.

 

[Eric8-A]

Still unsure about him. Think he will still lose time on atleast a couple of mountain stages. No doubt he seems in form though.

I agree. Although I do have high hopes for him, I do expect him to crack in the really tough stages. He says he has been working with Millar to improve his time-trialing. Anybody know what his TT results have been this year if he's done any?

I'm gonna want to see how well he does in the mountainous TT.

 

[greenedge]

I think he could get it before Etna. Garmin have a strong team and a purpose. However i do not think he could mix it with the likes of Contador, JROD or Nibali in the mountains. Top 10 by the end of it.

 

[Mrs John Murphy]

I asked the same question last year:

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=9720

If Vaughters can get Wiggins and CVV into the top 5 then there is no reason to think Le Mevel can't

 

[taiwan]

Different race, though, and different riders. Wiggins and Vande Velde both capitalised on their TT ability.

 

[El Pistolero]

I asked the same question last year:

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=9720

If Vaughters can get Wiggins and CVV into the top 5 then there is no reason to think Le Mevel can't

He's French

 

[Highlander]

I had Le Mevel on my Tour fantasy team last year and that turned out to be a huge mistake, so I have absolutely no confidence in him at this year's Giro.

 

[Angliru]

Two words: No Way! Le Mevel has never shown the ability to climb with the elite and in an extraordinary mountainous parcours he has no chance other than a miracle like Arroyo's from last year which is unlikely to occur again.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

We should also point out that Le Mevel had a GT top 10 thanks to a big breakaway... but Arroyo had a GT top 10 without that before (2007 Giro), and gained another thanks to disqualifications (2009 Giro), before getting in the big breakaway that got him to 2nd last year.

 

[theyoungest]

We should also point out that Le Mevel had a GT top 10 thanks to a big breakaway... but Arroyo had a GT top 10 without that before (2007 Giro), and gained another thanks to disqualifications (2009 Giro), before getting in the big breakaway that got him to 2nd last year.

... but Le Mevel had a top-10 in the Tour, which is by all means a bigger feat than one in the Giro.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

... but Le Mevel had a top-10 in the Tour, which is by all means a bigger feat than one in the Giro.

Is it? I mean, I know the field is stronger, but that was on a very easy parcours with a massive number of major contenders underperforming dreadfully, and we know time gaps are often less at the Tour because the racing is so controlled. He gained several minutes from that breakaway - minutes that Arroyo never needed to gain at the Giro in 2007, 2009 or 2010, because he never lost them. When he did gain them, he didn't defend a top 10 position, he damn near defended the maglia rosa.

And when you time trial like Arroyo, ANY top 10 in a GT is a minor miracle.

 

[K-0tic]

Besides, this years Giro is much much stronger. Menchov and probably Contador won't even ride the Tour. I only miss Evans,Gesink and Schleck & Schleck...

 

[roundabout]

We should also point out that Le Mevel had a GT top 10 thanks to a big breakaway... but Arroyo had a GT top 10 without that before (2007 Giro), and gained another thanks to disqualifications (2009 Giro), before getting in the big breakaway that got him to 2nd last year.

Arroyo got 4,19 on stage 8 in 2007 and would have been 13th otherwise.

Le Mevel got 5.20 in his break and would have been 14th without it.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

And Sammy Sanchez, and Vandenbroeck..and Basso

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

His chances of a top 10 are slowly looking better, as quite a few guys who might have been in the running for the top 10 have started to lose time - Duarte, Machado, Sastre, Di Luca, Rujano, etc

 

[roundabout]

They haven't hit real mountains yet (25 people finishing s.t., pfft).

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

They haven't hit real mountains yet (25 people finishing s.t., pfft).

No they haven't. And a lot of people currently in the top 30 are going to lose massive amounts of time once they do. Le Mevel himself will certainly be losing substantial time on the likes of Contador, Scarponi and Menchov. But Le Mevel is a decent climber, decent enough that nobody who is 7 minutes behind him when they do hit the big mountains is particularly likely to overhaul him.

Plus guys who were getting dropped today probably aren't serious top 10 contenders!

Le Mevel also has the advantage of being totally protected. No working for a contender for the GC win while also trying to hold on himself. No working for a sprinter during the relatively rare flat days. And while his mountain support isn't stellar, it isn't terrible either. That's a much better situation than the one facing lots of riders who might fancy a spot in the lower reaches of the top 10.

 

[taiwan]

The red jersey is the way to go.

 

[El Pistolero]

They haven't hit real mountains yet (25 people finishing s.t., pfft).

The only evidence you need for that is a Belgian winning

 

[greenedge]

He has cam meyer to face him. In a recent CN article someone said he could be resillient in the last week and i agree. I think top 10 for him will happen