Le Tour '18 stage 12: Bourg-Saint-Maurice > Alpe d'Huez 175k

[rlntlssly]

Re:

Froome doesn't want to leave any illusions concerning the tour winner and is going to try to attack PSM-style. though, him having now better conditions post-giro than last year without having ridden the giro is absolutely unbelievable. all other teams are looking like schoolboys compared to Sky.

I think that's unlikely. He knows how costly those big attacks can be, which is why he has done precisely one in the past three years, and that only when he really really had to.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Re: Re:

Sky will try to choke the race like yesterday. Whether Quintana or Nibali has a better day remains to be seen. Martin will attack of course and maybe drag Froome or Thomas with him. Two more MTFs after this one and one is a short stage. If the non Sky team leaders are going to do anything it has to happen soon. Dumoulin tried yesterday but might pay for that effort. It's really up to Nibali and Quintana now whether anyone is going to mount a challenge or try to. Dumoulin can afford to be a bit more selective with his efforts but still looks good.

After today with Valverde sacrificing himself for no good reason, I'd expect to see him try to go in some breaks and go stage hunting.

I actually expect him to go right from the bottom of Alpe d'Huez. He has nothing to loose, he may be used as a springboard for Quintana/Landa if they have legs (questionable), and he usually responds very well after a bad day.

I don't think SKY will be too bothered about Valverde going up the road. They know he won't be much used to Quintana if he bridges to him. If Quintana does do anything, SKY will follow. Landa i think will still be struggling with a bad back like yesterday and may just try and stay within range to limit his losses and try another day.

 

[rick james]

Froome will lose time today...sadly I think it will because the so called fans at the side of the road

 

[Savant12]

Re: Re:

Froome doesn't want to leave any illusions concerning the tour winner and is going to try to attack PSM-style. though, him having now better conditions post-giro than last year without having ridden the giro is absolutely unbelievable. all other teams are looking like schoolboys compared to Sky.

I think that's unlikely. He knows how costly those big attacks can be, which is why he has done precisely one in the past three years, and that only when he really really had to.

It will be interesting to see how he fares as the race progresses.

Does coming in "undercooked" mean he is peaking for Week 3 (like the Giro)?
Or will the Giro fatigue slowly start creeping into his legs so he needs to go full Alien on Alpe and try to manage his time losses later?

 

[Laplaz]

Re: Le Tour '18 stage 12: Bourg-Saint-Maurice > Alpe d'Huez

I could see Yates, Zakarin & Co. to get into the break today, I mean, they have nothing to lose.

 

[Frihed89]

After yesterday, there isn't much randomness left to influence the conclusion of the Tour. Absent that, one of the two Sky guys will win. I am not sure that outcome will be determined by pure skill or by team strategy.

 

[SafeBet]

This is on paper a good stage for Nibali. If he's not among the best today, he has no shot to win the whole thing.

Sky will try to destroy the opposition, I think. They don't want to leave an open door for a third week ambush. G especially will want to gain as much as he can, knowing a bad day can still happen.

 

[Martin]

Re: Le Tour '18 stage 12: Bourg-Saint-Maurice > Alpe d'Huez

This one is a stage for a rider with severe astmatic problems, who will have respiratory issues and has to take more puffs than usual. Exclude those who will not forget to rehydrate.

 

[bajbar]

I fear we are about to witness a PSM or Ax-3-Domaines - like stage today... Froome needs to get a minute and a half gap to Thomas (I fully believe he wants yellow and the stage today). I am afraid to think what kind of gaps that means to the other "Orca-less" riders...

 

[glassmoon]

Re: Re:

Unfortunately, can't see past Froome crashing everybody...

Didn't know he had that sort of reputation.

*crushing
(ooops)

 

[Red Rick]

Breakaway will win I guess.

Any guess as to the fastest time on Alpe d'Huez?

Are we gonna see faster than Quintana in 2015?

 

[topcat]

Quintana 2018 will be faster than Quintana 2015 and it won't be enough

 

[DNP-Old]

Uran DNS.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Re: Le Tour '18 stage 12: Bourg-Saint-Maurice > Alpe d'Huez

So how many entries in the Top 100 can be expected?

1. 1995: 36:40 Marco Pantani 22.58 km/h
2. 1997: 36:53 Marco Pantani 22.45 km/h
3. 1994: 37:15 Marco Pantani 22.23 km/h
4. 2004: 37:36 Lance Armstrong 22.02 km/h
5. 1997: 37:40 Jan Ullrich 21.98 km/h
6. 2001: 38:03 Lance Armstrong 21.76 km/h
7. 1995: 38:04 Miguel Indurain 21.75 km/h
8. 1995: 38:04 Alex Zulle 21.75 km/h
9. 1995: 38:06 Bjarne Riis 21.73 km/h
10. 1997: 38:20 Richard Virenque 21.60 km/h
11. 1995: 38:34 Laurent Madouas 21.47 km/h
12. 2006: 38:35 Floyd Landis 21.46 km/h
13. 2006: 38:35 Andreas Klöden 21.46 km/h
14. 2004: 38:40 Jan Ullrich 21.41 km/h
15. 1994: 38:55 Richard Virenque 21.28 km/h
16. 2006: 39:00 Carlos Sastre 21.23 km/h
17. 2003: 39:08 Iban Mayo 21.16 km/h
18. 2004: 39:12 Andreas Kloden 21.12 km/h
19. 2004: 39:14 Jose Azevedo 21.10 km/h
20. 2006: 39:14 Levi Leipheimer 21.10 km/h
21. 1997: 39:20 Francesco Casagrande 21.05 km/h
22. 1997: 39:21 Bjarne Riis 21.04 km/h
23. 2015: 39:22 Nairo Quintana 21.03 km/h
24. 1994: 39:30 Miguel Indurain 20.96 km/h
25. 1994: 39:30 Luc Leblanc 20.96 km/h
26. 2008: 39:30 Carlos Sastre 20.96 km/h
27. 1994: 39:37 Vladimir Poulnikov 20.90 km/h
28. 2004: 39:40 Giuseppe Guerini 20.87 km/h
29. 2004: 39:41 Santos Gonzalez 20.87 km/h
30. 2004: 39:41 Vladimir Karpets 20.87 km/h
31. 1995: 39:42 Fernando Escartin 20.86 km/h
32. 1995: 39:42 Claudio Chiappucci 20.86 km/h
33. 1995: 39:42 Paolo Lanfranchi 20.86 km/h
34. 2006: 39:46 Denis Menchov 20.82 km/h
35. 2006: 39:46 Michael Rasmussen 20.82 km/h
36. 2006: 39:46 Pietro Caucchioli 20.82 km/h
37. 1995: 39:48 Tony Rominger 20.80 km/h
38. 2013: 39:48 Nairo Quintana 20.80 km/h
39. 1995: 39:51 Pavel Tonkov 20.78 km/h
40. 2013: 39:51 Joaquim Rodriguez 20.78 km/h
41. 1997: 39:52 Beat Zberg 20.77 km/h
42. 1997: 39:52 Udo Bolts 20.77 km/h
43. 1997: 39:52 Roberto Conti 20.77 km/h
44. 1997: 39:52 Laurent Madouas 20.77 km/h
45. 2004: 39:56 David Moncoutié 20.73 km/h
46. 2004: 39:57 Carlos Sastre 20.73 km/h
47. 2004: 39:58 Ivan Basso 20.72 km/h
48. 2004: 39:58 Stéphane Goubert 20.72 km/h
49. 1994: 40:01 Piotr Ugrumov 20.69 km/h
50. 1994: 40:01 Alex Zülle 20.69 km/h
51. 2001: 40:02 Jan Ullrich 20.68 km/h
52. 1995: 40:07 Laurent Jalabert 20.64 km/h
53. 2004: 40:07 Michael Rogers 20.64 km/h
54. 2001: 40:12 Joseba Beloki 20.60 km/h
55. 2006: 40:14 Oscar Pereiro 20.58 km/h
56. 2006: 40:14 Michael Rogers 20.58 km/h
57. 2006: 40:14 Cadel Evans 20.58 km/h
58. 2006: 40:14 Ivan Parra 20.58 km/h
59. 1997: 40:15 Laurent Jalabert 20.57 km/h
60. 1997: 40:15 Marco Fincato 20.57 km/h
61. 1997: 40:18 Abraham Olano 20.55 km/h
62. 1997: 40:23 Orlando Rodrigues 20.50 km/h
63. 1991: 40:27 Gianni Bugno 20.47 km/h
64. 2004: 40:27 Marcos Serrano 20.47 km/h
65. 1991: 40:28 Miguel Indurain 20.46 km/h
66. 1991: 40:29 Luc Leblanc 20.45 km/h
67. 2006: 40:29 Cyril Dessel 20.45 km/h
68. 2006: 40:29 Haimar Zubeldia 20.45 km/h
69. 1995: 40:31 Richard Virenque 20.44 km/h
70. 1995: 40:31 Ivan Gotti 20.44 km/h
71. 2004: 40:32 Oscar Pereiro 20.43 km/h
72. 2006: 40:32 Mikel Astarloza 20.43 km/h
73. 2001: 40:33 Christophe Moreau 20.42 km/h
74. 1997: 40:39 Manuel Beltran 20.37 km/h
75. 2004: 40:40 José Enrique Gutierrez 20.36 km/h
76. 2015: 40:42 Alejandro Valverde 20.34 km/h
77. 2015: 40:42 Christopher Froome 20.34 km/h
78. 1994: 40:43 Roberto Conti 20.34 km/h
79. 1994: 40:43 Oscar Pellicioli 20.34 km/h
80. 1994: 40:43 Pascal Lino 20.34 km/h
81. 1994: 40:43 Feranando Escartin 20.34 km/h
82. 1994: 40:43 Armand de las Cuevas 20.34 km/h
83. 2006: 40:45 Fränk Schleck 20.32 km/h
84. 2004: 40:46 Georg Totschnig 20.31 km/h
85. 1995: 40:49 Johan Bruyneel 20.29 km/h
86. 2004: 40:49 Sandy Casar 20.29 km/h
87. 2006: 40:49 Gilberto Simoni 20.29 km/h
88. 2003: 40:53 Alexandre Vinokourov 20.25 km/h
89. 2013: 40:54 Richie Porte 20.24 km/h
90. 2013: 40:54 Christopher Froome 20.24 km/h
91. 2004: 40:56 Floyd Landis 20.23 km/h
92. 2006: 40:56 Damiano Cunego 20.23 km/h
93. 2001: 40:57 Oscar Sevilla 20.22 km/h
94. 2004: 40:57 Mikel Astarloza 20.22 km/h
95. 2004: 40:57 Juan Miguel Mercado 20.22 km/h
96. 2013: 40:58 Alejandro Valverde 20.21 km/h
97. 2004: 41:00 Christophe Moreau 20.20 km/h
98. 1991: 41:02 Jean-Francois Bernard 20.18 km/h
99. 2004: 41:03 Gilberto Simoni 20.17 km/h
100. 1997: 41:07 Fernando Escartin 20.14 km/h

 

[telencefalus]

i want to see a top 10 by nairo but i think froome i'm disgusted

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Tailwind for G
Headwind for Dawg
simultaneously

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Le Tour '18 stage 12: Bourg-Saint-Maurice > Alpe d'Huez

Not seeing Sky win on Alpe would at least be some consolation

 

[del1962]

I actually think if it doesn't go to the break Quintana will win today, the steep first 2K suit him

 

[Scarponi]

Re: Le Tour '18 stage 12: Bourg-Saint-Maurice > Alpe d'Huez

Man Pantanis time was absolutely ridiculous.

 

[Frihed89]

Go Lawson Craddock!

 

[Robert5091]

Re:

Uran DNS.

Tough for EF - hope he can at least do the Vuelta.

 

[Billie]

Wonder how clos the police will be to Froome up the Alpe. Wouldn't surprise me to see a repeat of 2004

 

[Robert5091]

Re:

Wonder how clos the police will be to Froome up the Alpe. Wouldn't surprise me to see a repeat of 2004

Have Sky got Kim's running bodyguards maybe?

 

[saganftw]

froome will win and i expect sub 41 minutes time because A, its an iconic climb and B, he has to drop Thomas somehow and for that he cannot wait for last few kms

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

froome will win and i expect sub 41 minutes time because A, its an iconic climb and B, he has to drop Thomas somehow and for that he cannot wait for last few kms

Sub 41 is nothing.

Climbing times are fast this year, I really don't see how the fastest time doesn't go sub 40.