Le Tour '19 stage 19: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne > Tignes 126km

[Cookster15]

Bernal is in the box seat because he is ahead of Thomas on GC now and we are heading into more high altitude. What helps Alaphilippe is Landa does not seem to have it so that might mean Movistar don't push the Iseran. A lesser tempo helps JA. Maybe Pinot comes alive again that would be awesome. The rest are passengers IMO.

What will be interesting is if JA is still in yellow what his margin is. Could be like 2011 but with a MTF not TT to decide the Tour winner ?

 

[brownbobby]

Re: Le Tour '19 stage 19: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne > Tignes 1

My prediction....if Allaphillipe is still with the GC group over the top of the Iseran he wins the tour :geek:

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Le Tour '19 stage 19: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne > Tignes 1

My prediction....if Allaphillipe is still with the GC group over the top of the Iseran he wins the tour :geek:

There is another climb after Iseran. Even if he is still in group or rejoins on the descent that final climb might break him. Then there is stage 20. I can't see him hanging on after what we have seen this week so far.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Well, haven't read the thread here nor the OP (@work), but theres a BIG chance that Alaphilippe will still keep his yellow jersey after todays stage.

In other case it requires attack from the GC riders 5-8k before top of Col de l'Iseran. And I simply don't think that will happen....unless Bernal again is allowed to think colombian.

If GC riders have only managed to set back Alaphilippe with 45 sec at the top, he will regroup before last forgiving climb to Val Claret/Tignes (I love skiing in Espace Killy in winter season with base in Val Claret and tried summer bike climbing from the dam - it's not a hard climb at all)

But at tomorrows stage to Val Thorens (love skiing in Trois Vallée, too) Alaphilippe will definately loose his jersey.

 

[ppanther92]

Re: Le Tour '19 stage 19: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne > Tignes 1

My prediction....if Allaphillipe is still with the GC group over the top of the Iseran he wins the tour :geek:

There is another climb after Iseran. Even if he is still in group or rejoins on the descent that final climb might break him. Then there is stage 20. I can't see him hanging on after what we have seen this week so far.

He might even make it today, but Val Thorens will have him crack. The longer the worse.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

[quote="Fergoose"]What I want to see is either Bennet or Pouls with enough strength fo crack Julian on the penultimate climb. If neither Jumbo or Ineos can force tempo there will be serious issues for everyone but the yellow jersey as none of the GC contenders will jeopardise their own chances by attacking so far out.

Thomas should definitely get first option on any one-two attack on the final climb if we are still in that predicament. He has been a faultless and selfless team player in this TdF, to the extent he has almost handed it over on a silver plate to his teammate with repeated gifts.

I also need to see evidence that Jumbo, FDJ & Bora have the slightest clue how to respond to the Sky one-two punch as today they looked a bit clueless.[/quote]

I don't think they can. Out of doms I think only Valverde could do that (but is he really a dom? ), but I think he would rather go in the break today or try to escape from the main guys. Cracking Alaphilippe is Ineos or FDJ responsibility, Movistar won't do that for them, at least not in this stage.

 

[Leggitte]

Re: Re:

I'm much, much, much prefer Bernal or Pinot or even Steven K winning the Tour to Alpahilippe.

This.

It's kinda farcical if Alaphilippe wins. Pinot and Steven K have paid their dues in Grand Tours previously and Bernal is young but obviously a generational Grand Tour talent.

I take the opposite view for the same reasons. It’s ridiculous if these guys who prepare themselves all year round, sacrificing their chances in other races, not giving classics and short stage races the respect they deserve, but using them as training rides purely to peak in one 3-week event, can arrive in France in peak condition in July, and have their thunder stolen by a guy whos been riding hard and winning races consistently since March.

If it pushes more riders to ease back on the specialization, and ride a spread out season with more targets, I’m all for it.

I would love Alaphilippe to win. It's refreshing to see a tour champion who races all year long. Alaphilippe was there in February in Milan - San Remo, he was there in the wind, rain and mud in the Flemish classics. Now he is here in July in the Tour. You got to admire that. I hope he won't completely crack, but I have my doubts.

 

[Pantani_lives]

It's a good thing for the Tour that Alaf is still in yellow. Otherwise they would have soft-pedalled up the Iséran and waited for the final climb. Now they have to ride a high pace on the Iséran to drop Julian.

Landa will of course attack, hoping to overtake Quintana. He would rather finish ninth ahead of the Colombian than second behind him. It would be great to see Q in action again, but that won't be obvious after his huge effort yesterday.

Ineos would prefer to win with a British rider, but the others would have to be be incredibly stupid to let Thomas go. It might come down to a duel between Bernal and Pinot on the final climb. I think the Tour will be decided today.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Regarding Movistar, I don't believe that Landa, who is in the 3rd week of his second consecutive GT, has the legs to do anything significant anymore. He also spent the most bullets out of any of the current contenders in the second week. Although I wouldn't mind being wrong in this case. If Quintana has actually ridden himself into form now, as opposed to having just one particularly good day yesterday, then he is the Movistar rider more likely to enter the podium battle. But , in fairness, that is one enormous if.

I don't really see Alaphilippe lasting all the way in yellow. One big attack from Bernal, who seems to have improved relatively in this 3rd week, will likely be enough to take that yellow, even if it comes tomorrow on Val Thorens instead of today. Ineos probably tries to keep Thomas in with a chance for a win as long as possible, but he hasn't really shown a requisite climbing form thus far. Still, with this being Ineos, a mid-race transformation like Froome's in last years Giro, is not quite off the cards yet.

As such I can only see Pinot finding his great legs (instead of the average one's of yesterday) as way of preventing yet another Ineos/Sky Tour victory. But with Bernal having improved now, even Pinot's great legs might not be enough to drop him anymore. Unless he wins, or seriously cracks trying, that crosswind stage will remain hauting Pinot for some time. Unfortunately that scenario is looking ever more likely to become a reality right now.

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Re:

I'm much, much, much prefer Bernal or Pinot or even Steven K winning the Tour to Alpahilippe.

This.

It's kinda farcical if Alaphilippe wins. Pinot and Steven K have paid their dues in Grand Tours previously and Bernal is young but obviously a generational Grand Tour talent.

I take the opposite view for the same reasons. It’s ridiculous if these guys who prepare themselves all year round, sacrificing their chances in other races, not giving classics and short stage races the respect they deserve, but using them as training rides purely to peak in one 3-week event, can arrive in France in peak condition in July, and have their thunder stolen by a guy whos been riding hard and winning races consistently since March.

If it pushes more riders to ease back on the specialization, and ride a spread out season with more targets, I’m all for it.

Fully agree with Leinster.

 

[Frihed89]

Re: Le Tour '19 stage 19: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne > Tignes 1

Wow, there is really polarized sentiment about Alaphilippe. In the subjective world of fandom, the basic questions arise: What's just? What's earned? What's to be admired? What's to be hoped for? Among keen followers of cycling, the answers may yet vary.

I'll pass on the "just". Earned: Alaphilippe; Admiration: Alaphilippe, Quintana; Hope: the Columbians finish 1 and 2 in the GC.

 

[RattaKuningas]

I really hope that Quintana manages to make an another attack today and gain some time. Eventhough he was in the breakaway during yesterday's stage I don't think that he should be that much more fatigued than the rest of the GC riders to be honest because he had a relatively steady ride in the breakaway bunch until his attack on the Galibier and after that initial attack, to get away from Bardet and Lutsenko, he simply rode his own tempo until the end. Meanwhile GC riders definitely had to spend much more energy on the Izoard climb because of the pace set by Soler and the last few kilometers on the Galibier were tough as well after Thomas attacked.

If it's not Quintana that gains time today then it has to be Uran. I was impressed by Uran as well yesterday because he was really struggling during the 2nd week, but yesterday he seemed to have no problems following Thomas or Pinot so I expect same from him today.

 

[brownbobby]

Re: Le Tour '19 stage 19: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne > Tignes 1

My prediction....if Allaphillipe is still with the GC group over the top of the Iseran he wins the tour :geek:

There is another climb after Iseran. Even if he is still in group or rejoins on the descent that final climb might break him. Then there is stage 20. I can't see him hanging on after what we have seen this week so far.

Yes, i know all that....its just a prediction likely to be wildly wrong, but i think if hes capable of hanging in on the Iseran, he's capable of hanging in for the rest of the race.

I don't think the last climb to Val Thorens will be decisive, its long but not particularly steep at any point, with several flatter sections and even a good downhill to recover a little bit.

As i said, just a prediction..the race is wide open and i cant wait to see how it plays out...

 

[Lequack]

This morning's pics

 

[Lequack]

Also a random video moment from yesterday:
https://twitter.com/bischofberger/status/1154510127174684672

 

[BullsFan22]

Re: Le Tour '19 stage 19: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne > Tignes 1

Hope the weather isn't nasty today and that there are no crashes and injuries. Let's hope whoever wins the tour that they win it on their physical and tactical strength, not on misfortune or taking advantage of bad luck from his rivals.

Haven't seen Kruijswik or Buchmann attack. If they have it physically, they need to do something. Kruijswik has had a good team around him. Bennett had some terrible luck with two crashes yesterday, but other than that they've been solid for the Dutchman. If Roglic is watching this, he's probably saying to himself 'why didn't I get this sort of team in the Giro?' And also Roglic 'why didn't I go to the Tour instead of the Giro?'

Buchmann doesn't have a strong team but he's followed wheels very well and been extremely gritty. He could be the biggest surprise by snatching a podium.

It would be phenomenal if Quintana keeps it going and gets himself onto the podium, or better...

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Also a random video moment from yesterday:
https://twitter.com/bischofberger/status/1154510127174684672

Hehe, that's quite lovely. I'm particularly fond of the videobomb by the T-Rex.

 

[barmaher]

Some candidates for the break:

Bardet, nailed on
Valverde, tactic is irresistible
Nibali
Lutsenko
Caruso
Wellens
Yates x 2
Mollema
Costa
Teuns
Taaramae
D Martin

 

[wheresmybrakes]

So glad to see Ala didn't get punished for breaking the same rule as Martin and Rowe. Somehow the DQS DS got a fine, makes sense.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

So glad to see Ala didn't get punished for breaking the same rule as Martin and Rowe. Somehow the DQS DS got a fine, makes sense.

It's not the same rule

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I'm much, much, much prefer Bernal or Pinot or even Steven K winning the Tour to Alpahilippe.

I like Alaphilippe.

But damn I can't stand Lefevre and the farcical hype an Alaphilippe win would get

This whole thing has made me not like him that well.

The fact that the guy has ridden aggressively in the first week to put him in the lead, won a TT that suited his characteristics perfectly, ridden almost equally well as the best climbers in the race and having fought splendidly to defend his lead without having much mountain support from his team, while all the while being extremely down-to-earth and genuinely sympathetic has made you not like him that well?

Allright.

 

[brownbobby]

Re: Re:

So glad to see Ala didn't get punished for breaking the same rule as Martin and Rowe. Somehow the DQS DS got a fine, makes sense.

It's not the same rule

No, more akin to Roglic at the Giro.....but really, does anyone expect a Frenchman in yellow at the Tour to be treated the same as a Slovenian in Italy

 

[Pantani Attacks]

Wonder will they play it safe, tomorrow's stage looks absolutely brutal...expend too much energy today trying to make a dent and you're going to shed tonnes of time tomorrow.

 

[wirral]

Landa and Quintana will try to be the first to get in the break / go on a later attack to stymie the other.

Bernal and Thomas will try to be the first to get in the break / go on a later attack to stymie the other.

 

[brownbobby]

Re:

Landa and Quintana will try to be the first to get in the break / go on a later attack to stymie the other.

Bernal and Thomas will try to be the first to get in the break / go on a later attack to stymie the other.

I'm not sure that any break containing Bernal or Thomas is going to be allowed to establish itself...