le Tour 2011 top 10 GC contenders and pretenders

[Publicus]

I just came across this article on Velonation quoting McGee about AC's form and recovery. Not especially good news . . .

I'm coming on the Tour to have fun. To enjoy the best race in the world. It's the most prestigious event. I come with great ambition…I will be mainly on the Tour to give myself what I love most: real competition,” he said.

Read more: http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/8...om-Giro-and-is-riding-well.aspx#ixzz1PNhGWKPb

. . . for those predicting he will be too tired from the Giro.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I just came across this article on Velonation quoting McGee about AC's form and recovery. Not especially good news . . .




. . . for those predicting he will be too tired from the Giro.

Haha, I love it.

 

[cocteau_ireland]

Re: roche yeah he'll be ready-climbed luz ardiden today- n perhaps the crash (can u feel my hand clutching at the straw man) will keep him primed. Belief that he can top 10; the itt day after alps right? Think has the power for a 3wk tour that say a brajkovic-ribs arent cool- doesnt And yeah what is it with the mid-thirty plus riders Are other sports encountering similar phenomenon?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I just came across this article on Velonation quoting McGee about AC's form and recovery. Not especially good news . . .




. . . for those predicting he will be too tired from the Giro.

yeah this means little.
A team ds making positive comments for thier rider...no way ?

--

we wont know until the tour, no matter how much reassuring articles you wish to post. I suspect we'll see a very tired AC in the final week.

 

[blaxland]

yeah this means little.
A team ds making positive comments for thier rider...no way ?

--

we wont know until the tour, no matter how much reassuring articles you wish to post. I suspect we'll see a very tired AC in the final week.

If he does get as tired as what you think,so will all the other riders that matter...Can't wait till it starts....Contador WILL do the double...

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If he does get as tired as what you think,so will all the other riders that matter...Can't wait till it starts....Contador WILL do the double...

Not true.
The riders who didn't go Giro will no doubt be fresher imo.
A lot of riders aim to peak for the 3rd week. It is very difficult to ride giro - recover - build form - peak at best for tour.

I realise contador is a special tallent, but I doubt his body is that much better at recovering then other riders. Why hasn't he done the vuelta in past years then? Or is he just too lazy (or doesn't care for the vuelta) to go compete at his home race?

I feel confident we will see AC struggle at the tour.

Andy WILL win.

 

[blaxland]

Not true.
The riders who didn't go Giro will no doubt be fresher imo.
A lot of riders aim to peak for the 3rd week. It is very difficult to ride giro - recover - build form - peak at best for tour.

I realise contador is a special tallent, but I doubt his body is that much better at recovering then other riders. Why hasn't he done the vuelta in past years then? Or is he just too lazy (or doesn't care for the vuelta) to go compete at his home race?

I feel confident we will see AC struggle at the tour.

Andy WILL win.

Usually i would agree Timmy but knowing that Alberto didnt go too deep into the red during the Giro"makes me think that he will dominate this years edition of Le Tour.(He will follow all Andy's attacks in the Mts and crush poor Andy in the TTT and Individual.)But regaurding the Vuelta i dont know the answer,maybe being looked after by Bruneel had something to do with that.(Concentraiting only on one race),but he will in the future win the vuelta again and again...

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Usually i would agree Timmy but knowing that Alberto didnt go too deep into the red during the Giro"makes me think that he will dominate this years edition of Le Tour.

This is just an assumption you are making.
AC rode very hard at the giro IMO, he won by a mile, but winning easily doesn't mean it was easy, rather his huge win should reflect how hard he did ride the giro.

The giro was tough, everyone in the top 10 dug deep, AC is no exception.

But regaurding the Vuelta i dont know the answer,maybe being looked after by Bruneel had something to do with that.(Concentraiting only on one race),but he will in the future win the vuelta again and again...

JB had nothing to do with Berto last year.
I suspect Ac was either to tired after the tour or he was just lazy. I don't get the vibe he really cares about the Vuelta. He certainly holds the tour in highest regard.

 

[blaxland]

This is just an assumption you are making.
AC rode very hard at the giro IMO, he won by a mile, but winning easily doesn't mean it was easy, rather his huge win should reflect how hard he did ride the giro.

The giro was tough, everyone in the top 10 dug deep, AC is no exception.



JB had nothing to do with Berto last year.
I suspect Ac was either to tired after the tour or he was just lazy. I don't get the vibe he really cares about the Vuelta. He certainly holds the tour in highest regard.

Not an assumption Timmy just a bit of inside knowledge(pm me for more info)I thought you meant throughout Alberto's career not just last year...

 

[dlwssonic]

your faith in contador is amazing. You shouldnt compare andy to the likes of nibali and scarponi. I will tell you andy is a level above them. Andy will be as good as contador in the mountains or should be even better in the tdf. contador is human afterall even he said that the giro was the hardest race of his life. Now tell me are you sure he is not that tired. Contador also said he wasnt satisfied with his test results.

 

[blaxland]

your faith in contador is amazing. You shouldnt compare andy to the likes of nibali and scarponi. I will tell you andy is a level above them. Andy will be as good as contador in the mountains or should be even better in the tdf. contador is human afterall even he said that the giro was the hardest race of his life. Now tell me are you sure he is not that tired. Contador also said he wasnt satisfied with his test results.

Yes ofcourse Andy should be rated above Nibali and Scarponi only contador can match him in the mts.But i don't think the Giro made him as tired as first thought, Logically your right but i think he's playing mind games with the competition.I guess we only have a few weeks till we can see the outcome.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Can't say i agree with you Blaxland, the fact that he won by 6 minutes racing the hardest Grand Tour route that most people have ever seen and then to back up and win another Grand Tour against some very strong competition which has been historically been hard to do.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I still think 10' was harder, maybe not in terms of pace but effort required from the leaders. All of the riders seemed wrecked after the first 2 weeks. The dutch stages were chaotic, leading into difficult stages. There was barely a transition stage until week 3. Was still the best GT I have seen in a very long time.

But i do agree with you acf, I think AC and his team truly believe he'll be fine, but come july it could be a different story. The 3rd week I think will be very hard on AC.

 

[Publicus]

yeah this means little.
A team ds making positive comments for thier rider...no way ?

--

we wont know until the tour, no matter how much reassuring articles you wish to post. I suspect we'll see a very tired AC in the final week.

This article wasn't reassuring to me. In fact, I agree with you--what else could McGee say but that he's feeling good. I posted it mainly AC's quote. Don't worry I'm sure AC will make you out to be a genius when he cracks and loses 8 minutes.

I see you've made a definitive prediction to boot! Should be a fun 3 weeks can't wait to see if you are right. As it stands I slightly favor Andy for the win.

Also for the poster who mentioned AC's test, I don't think the original translation bandied about was completely accurate. Here's how it's translated on one his fan sites:

“I know that it’s a difficult challenge. Yesterday I did a test, and it wasn’t the best result I’ve ever had, which is something that can motivate you even more,” he explained, “but I’m aware that there’s still time left.”

 

[dlwssonic]

This is andys best year to win it IMO. If bertie wins the tdf this year, I salute him. But i still think its andys to lose.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

This article wasn't reassuring to me. In fact, I agree with you--what else could McGee say but that he's feeling good. I posted it mainly AC's quote. Don't worry I'm sure AC will make you out to be a genius when he cracks and loses 8 minutes.

I see you've made a definitive prediction to boot! Should be a fun 3 weeks can't wait to see if you are right. As it stands I slightly favor Andy for the win.

Also for the poster who mentioned AC's test, I don't think the original translation bandied about was completely accurate. Here's how it's translated on one his fan sites:

I guess I misread your post or something.
I know I'm a genius I need no one to reassure me of this

I think I'm in the minority of thinking AC wont match up at the tpur, and I've been pretty vocal about it, so I am cruising for the egg in my face

 

[Publicus]

I guess I misread your post or something.
I know I'm a genius I need no one to reassure me of this

I think I'm in the minority of thinking AC wont match up at the tpur, and I've been pretty vocal about it, so I am cruising for the egg in my face

You are in the minority but your reasoning is sound whereas I think those favoring AC are doing so mainly on the premise that he's literally ALWAYs competitive in every race he enters. And let's not get started about his record in GTs. If it was anyone else I would heavily favor Andy for the win. But it's AC, so I only make Andy a slight favorite to win.

 

[just some guy]

You are in the minority but your reasoning is sound whereas I think those favoring AC are doing so mainly on the premise that he's literally ALWAYs competitive in every race he enters. And let's not get started about his record in GTs. If it was anyone else I would heavily favor Andy for the win. But it's AC, so I only make Andy a slight favorite to win.

But I also think Andy is not smart enough to make the race hard earlier ie he will wait for the MTF´s etc instead of making Contador and his team work hard on anything that goes up.

 

[Publicus]

But I also think Andy is not smart enough to make the race hard earlier ie he will wait for the MTF´s etc instead of making Contador and his team work hard on anything that goes up.

This is also true. Maybe this year Andy develops some tactical sense. I would certainly try to put the pressure on AC and others early and in unexpected stages.

 

[Angliru]

Usually i would agree Timmy but knowing that Alberto didnt go too deep into the red during the Giro"makes me think that he will dominate this years edition of Le Tour.(He will follow all Andy's attacks in the Mts and crush poor Andy in the TTT and Individual.)But regaurding the Vuelta i dont know the answer,maybe being looked after by Bruneel had something to do with that.(Concentraiting only on one race),but he will in the future win the vuelta again and again...

I think that once he see's that he was able to successfully manage his efforts to enable him to win the Giro/Tour in the same year, he will do the Tour/Vuelta at least once. I think AS is in, as Cancellara stated about Boonen during the cobbled classics season, "crisis mode". All the pressure is on him to win. In his mind, he should've beaten a less than his best Contador last year but couldn't. As Yates said, AS can't match Contador in 2 important areas: TT's and mental toughness, and the climbing area in my opinion shouldn't be an argument either, regardless of last year's Tour example.

 

[Publicus]

Another data point from Team Contador. Now it's Porte getting in on the action. Timmy, I think they know you are betting against him:

''He told me he was going to do it … he is there, to win,'' Porte said. ''He is certainly in good condition right now. He seemed to be going pretty fine in the last two days on the climbs.''

Porte cited Tuesday's reconnaissance of the 200.5km 18th stage from Pinerolo to Galibier-Serre Chevalier as evidence. ''Sometimes he goes 'a bloc' [full pace] and other times he would sit with us,'' he said. ''Up the Galibier, he was going. We did the climb behind the car, most of it. It was pretty full on.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cycling...rance-glory-20110616-1g625.html#ixzz1PSTqHQqf

I'd post comments from Andy, but I assume all of you are watching the Tour de Suisse and you know where Andy stands at the moment. If anything provocative comes up, I will of course pass it along.

 

[Publicus]

As promised, Sir Andy speaks today about his awesome showing at the TdS.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iK-HkK3NsfFoPLaRi_dq1knjH_zw?docId=CNG.ae6d4035ac5fdab3b287d9003b822c9f.331

A couple of choice quotes:

"It was a very bad day," said Schleck, who had tested his legs with an impressive show of pace-setting on the climb to Crans-Montana on Sunday.

"In the first couple of mountain stages I felt much better. Today I felt very early on the climb that my legs weren't good, so I decided I wasn't going to punish myself for the rest of the climb."

"There's no panic. Last year I wasn't always good in the Tour of Switzerland," added Schleck, who was beaten to the yellow jersey by only 39secs last year. [ED: LOST 14'15" today alone]

"The first stage of the TDF is still several weeks away and the real race will begin in four weeks in the mountains."

Leopard's Maxime Montfort, who along with German teammate Linus Gerdemann had the job of setting the tempo for Frank Schleck on the climb as he looks to maintain his overall challenge, was quick to put Andy Schleck's slump into perspective.

"It was a hard climb, but it's not the Tour de France either and a lot of guys here are still not 100 percent," said the Belgian.

"Andy needs the pressure of the Tour (to excel). He can't be 100 percent mentally ready every day of the year.

 

[jens_attacks]

he IS a terrible talent but i still think it's sad to see him like this(i'm not even a fan)...i know he's going the lance way which is absolutely fine but let's not forget that the boss in june was already starting the engine....

 

[Publicus]

he IS a terrible talent but i still think it's sad to see him like this(i'm not even a fan)...i know he's going the lance way which is absolutely fine but let's not forget that the boss in june was already starting the engine....

I agree. I don't remember much about the TdS last year, but I don't recall him going this badly. The last quote (about him needing the Tour to really focus) is probably the most disturbing to me.

 

[cineteq]

"It was a hard climb, but it's not the Tour de France either and a lot of guys here are still not 100 percent," said the Belgian.

So 30% is ok? Andy's becoming a Diva.