le Tour 2011 top 10 GC contenders and pretenders

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

?????

.....................

dont bother, the guy has no idea

I though bastille day will be even harder, all the french riders will go crazy on that day, am I wrong?

frenchies go crazy, but the guys in the peloton generally get a nice rest.

 

[karlboss]

When was this? I know he was initiating any more attacks after Etna (he didn't need to), but when did he slow noticeably???

Slowed noticibly in terms of his VAM giving power to weight numbers as given by Ferrari. For reference:

For reference Etna between 6 to go and 3 to go 6.87w/kg
Grossglockner 6.00 w/kg adjusting for altitude 6.48w/kg
Zoncolon 5.88 w/kg
Gardeccia 5.66 w/kg
MTT 6.13 w/kg
Finestre 5.87 w/kg

What these numbers say is Contador slowed, what it does not say is why.

Or another way of looking at it is, he was far better than everyone else and then as good as/marginally better than everyone else, either he slowed or they came up to his level. Note I said slowed, not became weaker etc.

 

[gregrowlerson]

The top 10 (though not in order):

Contador
Both Schleck's - Barring any major mishaps this should be a lay down mezere. Frank was comfortably top 10 in '08 and '09; tours with easier mountains and more time trialing.
Evans - good form this season; no crashes and he will be there.
Gesink and Vandenbrook - both are fairly young; both can climb.
Sami Sanchez - inconsistent this season, but strong 4th in last TDF.
Kloden and Leipheimer - I sense that 2 Shack riders will make top 10 as the team has been very strong all season, though Jani could replace either one of the old boys. Is Levi really as hopeless now as everyone makes out? His 2nd in '08 Vuelta is not all that long ago. He would most likely have been 4th Astana rider in top 10 in '09 if not for crashing.
Wiggins - I had thought he was no chance, but his victory at Dauphne changes things. Sure, Jani did nothing after winning last year, but Bradley is a proven 3 week performer; his much derided 4th place in '09 is underated.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Interesting to see a lot of confidence in the older riders.

Horner: turning 40.
Vinokourov: turning 38.
Leipheimer: turning 38.
Klöden: turning 36.
Vande Velde: already turned 35.
Evans: already turned 34.
Basso: turning 34.
Sanchez: already turned 33.

 

[dutchie]

Will Roche be fit enough for the tour after fall last week?

 

[just some guy]

Will Roche be fit enough for the tour after fall last week?

I think he will ride but use the tour for stage results and the veulta. Very bad timing

 

[LaFlorecita]

My top 10:
1 CONTADOR Alberto
2 SCHLECK Andy
3 SANCHEZ Samuel
4 GESINK Robert
5 VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen
6 EVANS Cadel
7 SCHLECK Fränk
8 BRAJKOVIC Janez
9 VINOKOUROV Alexandre
10 LEIPHEIMER Levi

 

[Angliru]

Why is everyone assuming that Horner (ok he won in California, but that was his season/career goal, Levi was there just as a domestique and looked stronger) will be the best placed RadioShack rider on the GC. Aren't Levi and Kloden better GC contenders?

Am I missing something here?

Technically they were co-leaders with Leipheimer supposedly having first shot due to his successful history at the event. Horner was just stronger, a point that Leipheimer begrudgingly admitted to, and not with much sincere pleasure I may add. If you recall, Horner was riding for Leipheimer on the stage that he won. He pulled Leipheimer up to to escapee and continued to pull until he simply rode away from Leipheimer, who initially blamed it on team tactics but later admitted that he couldn't continue to match Horner tempo.

Horner is a freak and just might be able to back up his statements. I'm inclined to believe that he will pull a Contador, circa Tour 2009, and make sure there is no question as to who is the strongest on the Shack's Tour squad. Now if Bruyneel suddenly decides that he wants Horner to focus on the Vuelta and leaves him out of the Tour lineup, I guarantee there will be major, major drama, the kind that Bruyneel would probably be hoping to avoid at the Tour by having all 4 vying for the team support.

 

[Angliru]

Basso and Sanchez don't do big build ups.

Sammy did just as "well" in the Dauphine this year as in 2010, where he was ripe for a podium in July.

Basso was awful in Romandie, before crushing in the Giro, but there is actually a case that he will be off his best at the Tour due to his interrupted preparation.

+1 Even Basso is questioning the liklihood of his being able to regain his form in time for the Tour.

Samu is usually scarce leading up to the Tour. He's shown each successive year that he's getting his Tour prep on point. I'm hoping he hasn't reached a plateau in terms of his Tour performance. I'd love to see him be the first Euskaltel Euskadi rider to reach the podium and get that elusive stage win that he barely missed out on last year.

 

[Angliru]

but he is not.

The one time AS dropped a less than peak Contador last year was after Contador foolishly tried responding to every attack, and by the time Samu and AS launched their's, Contador had nothing left but still came in with the rest of the contenders. On Mende, AS was dropped by Contador and Purito.
So a less than his best Contador is still superior to Andy. Andy arrogantly believes, as does his fans that he narrowed the gap last year but actually in my opinion he's going to be in the same position at the start as last year. He'll likely gain an advantage in the TTT but will lose it in the mountains and in the ITT. His ToS prologue performance only cements his rep as a general
f%*k up at certain crucial moments. Last year it was blamed on SRAM, now he has Shimano and he tosses his chain again? He's like the Kramer Cosmo of cycling.

 

[Angliru]

Man, you never stop do you?

Seriously, that's just pure BS and if your really believe that, well... then I guess you are even worse that the LA-fanboys.

...and you're basing your belief on AS's performance last year versus a less than his best Contador. Are you so blinded by Andy's arrogance that the reality that Contador's less than stellar performance last year had little to do with AS having bridged the gap that was evident in 2009? AS is still making the little mistakes that compromise his successes while Contador simply perseveres through the obstacles that he's presented with. AS is a stage racer/climber who never wins any of the big stage races. Since his remarkable Giro performance that earned him a podium spot how many major stage races has he won? His rollercoaster form is maddening and perplexing or maybe he's just a slacker skating by on his talent, using it to it's utmost only when it benefits himself (Vuelta 2010).

 

[Angliru]

While it didn't end up being important, I do believe that Andy did drop Contador on Stage 8 of the Tour last year. 10 seconds isn't really a huge deal, but it is what it is.

I still come back to the fact that last year, Schleck lost 39 seconds on the stage he dropped his chain... and lost the overall by 39 seconds. Of course gaining 1:13 in the cobbled stage helped with that, but he seems close enough that he's the one rider I'm not going to assume Contador can beat... especially after having already ridden the Giro.

I believe Contador was operating on the belief that he had the same or close to the same form he had in 2009, based partially on his prologue performance. Matching each attack on Avoriaz would've been possible for the 2009 Contador but the 2010 one bit off more than he bargained for and had nothing left for the Samu attack that AS answered. After that there was absolutely no time that AS showed any superiority to Contador in the mountains. As a matter of fact on Mende, Contador and Purito dropped AS.

 

[Publicus]

Slowed noticibly in terms of his VAM giving power to weight numbers as given by Ferrari. For reference:

For reference Etna between 6 to go and 3 to go 6.87w/kg
Grossglockner 6.00 w/kg adjusting for altitude 6.48w/kg
Zoncolon 5.88 w/kg
Gardeccia 5.66 w/kg
MTT 6.13 w/kg
Finestre 5.87 w/kg

What these numbers say is Contador slowed, what it does not say is why.

Or another way of looking at it is, he was far better than everyone else and then as good as/marginally better than everyone else, either he slowed or they came up to his level. Note I said slowed, not became weaker etc.

Thanks. He posted his highest numbers on days he was attacking for time (Etna, Grossglockner and MTT) and somewhat lower numbers when he was following wheels (Zoncolon, Gardeccia and Finestre). At least that's how I look at it. I honestly think once it was clear (real clear) that none of these guys could handle him, he tried to avoid going into the red too much in advance of the Tour.

 

[cineteq]

My top 10 in Paris:
1 CONTADOR Alberto
2 GESINK Robert
3 EVANS Cadel
4 HORNER Christopher
5 SCHLECK Andy
6 KLÖDEN Andreas
7 VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen
8 BASSO Ivan
9 CUNEGO Damiano
10 SANCHEZ Samuel

 

[Publicus]

Regardless of the circumstances, that is still a drop.

I guess I view being dropped differently than you do. I wouldn't say that AC DROPPED the guys at the Giro this year on the uphill finish (I think it was Stage 7 or 8). It was more of tactical situation. I would say he dropped the other favorites on Etna and Grossglockner when he attacked the group of favorites and none of them could hold his wheel.

Looking at the video from Mende and comparing it to the stage where Andy "dropped" Contador is a perfect illustration of the distinction IMO. Or when AC was gapped on the uphill sprint on Stage 6 of the Giro and everyone was questioning his form.

Gapped vs Dropped is probably the short way of summing it up.

 

[El Pistolero]

During the present time, Contador is focussing on his own preparation but he will doubtlessly be following that of his main rivals. He’s clear on who the most like dangermen are. “There are more numerous opponents [this year],” he said. “I think Cadel Evans, Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Klöden….plus there are also young riders who will assert themselves, in my opinion. This will happen with Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Robert Gesink. Anyway, my real rival, this will no doubt Andy Schleck!”

^ Contador about his rivals.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Contenders:

Contador
Schleck
Schleck
Basso
Evans
Sanchez
Gesink
Van den Broeck
Horner
Klöden
Soler (if he stays upright)

Borderline:

Wiggins
Hesjedal
Vandevelde
Vinokourov
Brajkovic

Pretenders:

Leipheimer
Porte
Roche
Cunego
Uran

Broadly agree, but I'd move Frank to borderline given the broader tactical situation, as well as Cadel and Soler.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

people saying soler is bad at itt

1 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 16.47 (53.62 km/h)
2 Mikhail Ignatiev (Rus) Tinkoff Credit Systems 0.22
3 Andrei Kunitski (Blr) Acqua & Sapone - Caffe Mokambo 0.34
4 Nikolai Trussov (Rus) Tinkoff Credit Systems
5 Juan Mauricio Soler (Col) Barloworld 0.40
6 Vasil Kiryenka (Blr) Tinkoff Credit Systems 0.42
7 Pedro Romero Ocampo (Spa) Extremadura - Spiuk 0.46
8 Evgeni Petrov (Rus) Tinkoff Credit Systems
9 Moises Duenas Nevado (Spa) Agritubel 0.50
10 Emilien Benoit Bergès (Fra) Agritubel 0.51

if soler stays fine in his head and team helps him out he can podium. most perfect tour for him with final itt suiting him like a custom made glove.

I think contador will win and any won;'t stand a chance

 

[Eric8-A]

When you see the old riders going good at their age, it's no surprise that people will have hope in them.

 

[Publicus]

Some interesting commentary from Sean Yates on AC. I thought these paragraphs in particular stood out as it relates to the TdF.

“Andy Schleck has been touted as the opposition. We saw last year that he could be there. We also saw that Alberto wasn’t so good last year, not as good as he was the previous years,” Yates said. “Mentally, he’s so much stronger than Andy. They’re different characters, you cannot compare them. Andy is very talented, but he doesn’t have the same mentality as Contador.”

Yates said Contador doesn’t have a weakness. With climbing skills and time trialing ability matched by mental toughness, Yates said it would be hard for anyone to beat him.

“One thing about Alberto is that he’s a natural. He doesn’t have to put in a lot of miles. I’ve seen him show up at camps when he hasn’t touched the pedals in two months and he still looks like riding on thin air,” Yates continued. “When you watch him pedal, you think he’s cruising along, but when you look down at the SRM or try to keep up with him, you can see how much power he’s putting out. Cadence comes with fitness. Everyone talks about cadence, but to turn cadence, you have to have power, especially when you’re going uphill. Only the very, very best can do that.”

Full article here: http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/06/news/sean-yates-on-contador-you-cannot-see-anyone-beating-him_178434

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Slowed noticibly in terms of his VAM giving power to weight numbers as given by Ferrari. For reference:

For reference Etna between 6 to go and 3 to go 6.87w/kg
Grossglockner 6.00 w/kg adjusting for altitude 6.48w/kg
Zoncolon 5.88 w/kg
Gardeccia 5.66 w/kg
MTT 6.13 w/kg
Finestre 5.87 w/kg

What these numbers say is Contador slowed, what it does not say is why.

Or another way of looking at it is, he was far better than everyone else and then as good as/marginally better than everyone else, either he slowed or they came up to his level. Note I said slowed, not became weaker etc.

5.88 on zonc is not easy. Impressive rather.
Curious to basso's numbers on zoncolan in 10'?
edit: apparently he did 5.68

There was no slowing down on the zoncolan.
There is more to the story then just numbers.

Take into considiration also that stage 15 took 7 and a half hours, unsurprising that they had lesser figures here considering how much climbing they had done.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Some interesting commentary from Sean Yates on AC. I thought these paragraphs in particular stood out as it relates to the TdF.



Full article here: http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/06/news/sean-yates-on-contador-you-cannot-see-anyone-beating-him_178434

Good article, thanks

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Does anyone know if Nibali is riding the Tour in support of Basso ?

 

[just some guy]

Does anyone know if Nibali is riding the Tour in support of Basso ?

He is not

the Vuelta is next gt for him, defend the title

 

[Angliru]

Some interesting commentary from Sean Yates on AC. I thought these paragraphs in particular stood out as it relates to the TdF.



Full article here: http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/06/news/sean-yates-on-contador-you-cannot-see-anyone-beating-him_178434

Thanks for posting that Publicus! Excellent article.