le Tour 2011 top 10 GC contenders and pretenders

[TeoSheva]

1 Contador
2 Horner
3 Andy
4 Wiggins
5 Gesink
6 Vdb2
7 Sanchez
8 Evans
9 Basso
10 Braijkovic

 

[Sophistic]

Contador
F.Schleck
Horner
Gesink
A.S.
VDB
Wiggins
Evans
Basso
Soler

Dont think AS will get the usual july boost this time

 

[theswordsman]

I'm still deciding whether or not I can make myself watch or not, but here goes:

I wanted Basso to do well, but I think crashing on his face really set him back, both in training and psychologically. He has time to improve, but I dunno.

I looked at the Dauphine results. Kudos to Wiggins for the win, but he got there with a second in the Prologue and a third in the TdF Time Trial course. I'm not sure how that translates into Eurosport's proclamation of a second coming. I read one guy who said that he, like all Tour riders, aim to peak in early June, to which I say WTF? Anyway, he celebrated his victory by saying that Contador shouldn't be there after testing positive 4 times - just the wording is enough for karma to have it's way and keep him out of the top twenty.

I watched a bit of the TdS Sunday. It was the second time I saw Schlecklet race a stage race this year, and the second time I saw him chasing Tom Danielsen up a climb, way behind Leipheimer and others. If he's having perfect preparation for the Tour, I expect a Lance-like performance from him.

I'm only still reading about the sport because I'm a Contador fan. I didn't want him to ride the race because I don't want to watch a lot of the guys there. Now that he's committed, I'll be totally satisfied with a yellow jersey and a few seconds margin of victory at the end. He put on the big burst of entertainment at the Giro, and I'm content. Friday he did what I'd read earlier was to be a Lactate Threshold test, power test in watts, and test of average rate of ascent over an 1850 meter climb. The best translation I saw of that had him saying that it wasn't quite as good as the same time other years. But he's still not completely recovered from, nor gained all the benefit from, riding the Giro so hard. It would be great if he can drop people and go charging up the climbs alone, but I'll be satisfied with consistency and time management.

I expect to see one of the Radio Shack guys with shiny heads in the top five, and like any good magic trick, I'm not going to wonder how it was done.

I'd lock to see some new guys have break out performances, but if I knew who they were, they wouldn't really qualify. (That's me being too lazy to do research)

 

[kjetilraknerud]

I won't make a list, but it looks like a great show! That is if they actually race, instead of riding in a small bunch to the top of every mountain.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Added 4 more to the list

Love the idea that you thought Rojas was seriously to be added as a top 10 contender.

 

[just some guy]

Love the idea that you thought Rojas was seriously to be added as a top 10 contender.

Me I just added some people and as you can see I did not have them in my original list - easier to add that to argue.

now someone will suggest Cav as a top 10 contender and complain when I do not add him

 

[movingtarget]

this is andys best year to win it, and im very sure he will win it. He has the strongest team. A self proclaimed very tired contador. And a very mountainous course which suits him heavily. He has been showing us he has been improving year by year. I wont be shocked if he is better than he was at 2010. His team would also gain time in the TTT. with guys like canc, poosthuma, voigt, montfort, gerdemann, ogrady and fuglsang. that really is a super super team. he is the man to beat not contador.

Contador always says he is tired but wins by over six minutes, gives away stages and looks fresher than anyone else in the third week of the Giro !

I think Porte improved as the Giro went on probably due to illness earlier on but I doubt he will make the top 10.

For me, the same top 10 as last year minus Menchov, Rodriguez and Kreuziger and substituting Evans,Wiggins and maybe Brajkovic. Sanchez at the moment is borderline. Can't see Basso doing it this year.

I think the time trial is important if fatigue is a problem for Contador. Last year Contador had an off day in the final time trial and was almost caught out. The whole race hinges on how Contador backs up. I am expecting another close race re 2010 but this year for different reasons. Last year Contador was not at his best. This year he could have already peaked which is what the others will be hoping for.

 

[SC1990]

Guiz, you crazy. Horner say himself only Pistolero can drop him in mountains. Therefore Horner=2nd at worst. Geez guiz come one hurr hurr

 

[Nicoper]

Why is everyone assuming that Horner (ok he won in California, but that was his season/career goal, Levi was there just as a domestique and looked stronger) will be the best placed RadioShack rider on the GC. Aren't Levi and Kloden better GC contenders?

Am I missing something here?

 

[Jamsque]

Why is everyone assuming that Horner (ok he won in California, but that was his season/career goal, Levi was there just as a domestique and looked stronger) will be the best placed RadioShack rider on the GC. Aren't Levi and Kloden better GC contenders?

Am I missing something here?

You are missing the fact that Horner is the 2nd best climber in the world.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

The top 2 are easy. The rest are very difficult.

A podium spot is definitely up for grabs. Of the 3 whom you would think would be contenders, Basso and Sanchez are way off the pace at the moment and Evans doesn't quite seem to be the force of old. Despite the lack of TT action, I'd still give Wiggo a shot at 3rd, but there's probably 15-20 riders who may have a shot. If pushed, I'd go for Gesink, closely followed by JVDB.

Outsider? HTC have a habit of getting previously unfancied riders into GT top 10. I'll go for TJVG this time.

 

[sky forever]

Can't see Soler making top 10. Stage win maybe. He'll lose time in the TT and also in Vendee and Brittany if the wind blows.

My top 10.
1) Schleck, A.
2) Contador
3) Evans
4) Horner
5) Van Den Broeck
6) Schleck, F.
7) Hesjedal
8) Sanchez
9) Gesink
10) Wiggins

Lol at Horner getting:

1) Top 5
2) Beating Frank Schleck, JVB, Gesink, Sanchez.

He won't be in the Top 10, in Cali he did win but Schleck was using that as training so when he and AC go on the L'Alpe d'Huez. Horner will be dropped right away. Top 20 maybe but not Top 10.

 

[Nicoper]

You are missing the fact that Horner is the 2nd best climber in the world.

...but there is a world outside US too, you know

 

[just some guy]

Why is everyone assuming that Horner (ok he won in California, but that was his season/career goal, Levi was there just as a domestique and looked stronger) will be the best placed RadioShack rider on the GC. Aren't Levi and Kloden better GC contenders?

Am I missing something here?

You are missing the fact that Horner is the 2nd best climber in the world.

...but there is a world outside US too, you know

I think that you miss the sarcastic nature of Jamsque post.

Horner said it himself in an interview

 

[sky forever]

My Top 10 is:

1) Contador
2) A.Schleck
3) Gesink
4) JVB
5) F.Schleck
6) Wiggo
7) Evans
8) S.Sanchez
9) Brajkovic
10) Basso

 

[El Pistolero]

Just read an interview of Bart de Clercq

He said something along the lines of this:

I was very impressed by Contador at the Giro. We could see him drop to 50th place in the peloton and get back to the front with incredible ease and without breaking a sweet. When he attacked it was unbelievable. I know for sure he even rode around with reserve, with maybe only 80%. The Schlecks are going to have their hands full with Contador. You can throw in a couple of more Schlecks and it still won't be enough. I am convinced Contador will win the Tour if he starts.

 

[Ferminal]

Basso and Sanchez don't do big build ups.

Sammy did just as "well" in the Dauphine this year as in 2010, where he was ripe for a podium in July.

Basso was awful in Romandie, before crushing in the Giro, but there is actually a case that he will be off his best at the Tour due to his interrupted preparation.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

schleck

samu
gesink

vdb
basso
evans
f. schleck

the rest.

**UNSURE: contador, unsure what he will bring to the tour, I very much doubt he will be in good enough form to win, but we'll see.

NOTE; the order isn't exact, just that schleck will be above the rest, samu and gesink better then the others, and basso, vdb etc better then everyone else.
Evans was borderline, but he seems to be able to grind a high result.

 

[sportzchick]

I think doing the Giro/TdF double might be a step too far for Contador but he and Andy might go toe to toe. Andy has the better team overall.

Im alot more circumspect and calmer since I last was here - Im not expecting Cadel to win the TdF but I know he will give it everything he has and would love to be proven wrong

 

[The Hitch]

Basso and Sanchez don't do big build ups.

Sammy did just as "well" in the Dauphine this year as in 2010, where he was ripe for a podium in July.

Basso was awful in Romandie, before crushing in the Giro, but there is actually a case that he will be off his best at the Tour due to his interrupted preparation.

Didnt Basso podium Trentino though?

And last year Samu came 1 minute 10 down on Alpe. Respectable enough. This year he got dropped by frickin Tony Martin and on the queen stage got absolutely thrashed on the final climb by over 3 minutes.

schleck

samu
gesink

vdb
basso
evans
f. schleck

the rest.

**UNSURE: contador, unsure what he will bring to the tour, I very much doubt he will be in good enough form to win, but we'll see.

NOTE; the order isn't exact, just that schleck will be above the rest, samu and gesink better then the others, and basso, vdb etc better then everyone else.
Evans was borderline, but he seems to be able to grind a high result.

Thanks timmy for making me feel better.

If you believe Samu can beat Gesink then there is still hope. Not present in all the predictions by so called experts and commentators, but deep in the hearts of men, hope still persists.

 

[nvpacchi]

Didnt Basso podium Trentino though?

And last year Samu came 1 minute 10 down on Alpe. Respectable enough. This year he got dropped by frickin Tony Martin and on the queen stage got absolutely thrashed on the final climb by over 3 minutes.




Thanks timmy for making me feel better.

If you believe Samu can beat Gesink then there is still hope. Not present in all the predictions by so called experts and commentators, but deep in the hearts of men, hope still persists.

I highly doubt Samu was going full throttle in this Dauphine. As Ferminal said he pulled off an almost identical Dauphine last year and timed his peak perfectly for the 2nd/3rd week of the Tour. No use on being close to top form 1 month before the real mountains start.

Samu and Basso will be fine once the tour starts, Wigans...well I might have to be venturing off to the avatar bets with him

 

[Escarabajo]

Contenders:

Contador
Schleck
Schleck
Basso
Evans
Sanchez
Gesink
Van den Broeck
Horner
Klöden
Soler (if he stays upright)

Borderline:

Wiggins
Hesjedal
Vandevelde
Vinokourov
Brajkovic

Pretenders:

Leipheimer
Porte
Roche
Cunego
Uran

+1.

Good. That way I don't have to write much.

 

[The Hitch]

I highly doubt Samu was going full throttle in this Dauphine. As Ferminal said he pulled off an almost identical Dauphine last year and timed his peak perfectly for the 2nd/3rd week of the Tour. No use on being close to top form 1 month before the real mountains start.

Samu and Basso will be fine once the tour starts, Wigans...well I might have to be venturing off to the avatar bets with him

I hope you are right Nick, but I dont think Samus performance was identical to last year. This year he lost bad on the main climbs where last year he lost but was still decent.

And obviously you dont want to be on peak for Dauphine, but still shouldnt be losing to Tony Martin.

 

[dlwssonic]

Dont know why everyone thinks contador is unbeatable. I dont think contador can drop andy. It will more likely be the other way around. But its most likely that they cant drop each other like last year.

 

[El Pistolero]

Contador can drop Andy quite easily when in top shape.