le Tour 2011 top 10 GC contenders and pretenders

[The Hitch]

I highly doubt Rabo will change tactics just because Mollema lost a possible podium in a warmup race.

Rabo will be much in the same position as Leopard - their guy getting a big head start over rivals, and will do what they gotta do, when they have to.


People keep pointing to mistakes in the past in races that were not called the Tour de France.

The race in July is called the Tour de France.

Andy will not be getting dropped in the mountains by Busche. He will not be losing 3 minutes on a tt to rivals. The brothers will not happily settle for 2nd and 3rd like they did in Liege.

They will not work their asses of for stronger rivals because Andy will be the strongest one there.

there will be none of these mistakes. Leopard could care less about every other race on the calendar. this is what they care about.

 

[just some guy]

I highly doubt Rabo will change tactics just because Mollema lost a possible podium in a warmup race.

Rabo will be much in the same position as Leopard - their guy getting a big head start over rivals, and will do what they gotta do, when they have to.


People keep pointing to mistakes in the past in races that were not called the Tour de France.

The race in July is called the Tour de France.

Andy will not be getting dropped in the mountains by Busche. He will not be losing 3 minutes on a tt to rivals. The brothers will not happily settle for 2nd and 3rd like they did in Liege.

They will not work their asses of for stronger rivals because Andy will be the strongest one there.

there will be none of these mistakes. Leopard could care less about every other race on the calendar. this is what they care about.

Like last year at the TDF when Andy kept collecting his own Bottles ?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I highly doubt Rabo will change tactics just because Mollema lost a possible podium in a warmup race.

Rabo will be much in the same position as Leopard - their guy getting a big head start over rivals, and will do what they gotta do, when they have to.


People keep pointing to mistakes in the past in races that were not called the Tour de France.

The race in July is called the Tour de France.

Andy will not be getting dropped in the mountains by Busche. He will not be losing 3 minutes on a tt to rivals. The brothers will not happily settle for 2nd and 3rd like they did in Liege.
They will not work their asses of for stronger rivals because Andy will be the strongest one there.

there will be none of these mistakes. Leopard could care less about every other race on the calendar. this is what they care about.

I agree with everything but this. It's just their mentality that they would rather end 2nd and 3rd than 1st and 9th. They've said it themselves and I don't see anything that should be different now...

 

[The Hitch]

Like last year at the TDF when Andy kept collecting his own Bottles ?

Those were **** poor tactics from Riis

Yeah it was stupid but didnt really lose him anything.

 

[chambers]

Why is everyone assuming that Horner (ok he won in California, but that was his season/career goal, Levi was there just as a domestique and looked stronger) will be the best placed RadioShack rider on the GC. Aren't Levi and Kloden better GC contenders?

Am I missing something here?

Horner was in the top 10 last year and the best placed RadioShack rider on GC. If he did it last year why not this year again?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Interesting - and quite sad - that there's no talk of any Movistar riders. Who will be their leader going into the Tour? I guess Plaza is out, so that leaves Intxausti or Costa?

 

[hrotha]

Interesting - and quite sad - that there's no talk of any Movistar riders. Who will be their leader going into the Tour? I guess Plaza is out, so that leaves Intxausti or Costa?

Intxausti might be a dark horse for a top 10. I don't think Costa can deal with the big mountains.

 

[Chef_Vodnik]

Those were **** poor tactics from Riis

Yeah it was stupid but didnt really lose him anything.

He did it for teh lulz.

 

[Escarabajo]

I am just curious; didn't you all think that Cunego used the wrong gear ratio for his size?

He probably was following advice by other time trialists but sometimes you are better off by using what you are comfortable with. Just saying.

 

[Liquigas]

Interesting - and quite sad - that there's no talk of any Movistar riders. Who will be their leader going into the Tour? I guess Plaza is out, so that leaves Intxausti or Costa?

Sad times for Movistar, first they lost Plaza, then Tondo, and now Soler.

They should be going for stages hunting.

 

[Frosty]

Rojas perhaps?

 

[Escarabajo]

Sad times for Movistar, first they lost Plaza, then Tondo, and now Soler.

They should be going for stages hunting.

They should subcontract Fabio Duarte for the Tour.

 

[gustienordic]

Contador...

Contador has won every grand tour he has entered so far. I do not think that trend will end. His form in the Giro was insane; he rode away from everyone and put in huge time gaps.

I do not have faith in Andy or Frank this year after watching their performance in Suisse. The time trialling is just not there and neither is the punchy climbing required to beat Contador.

My Top Ten:

1. Contador
2. Wiggins
3. Van DeBroek
4. Schleck
5. Gesink
6. Evans
7. Horner
8. Gadret
9. Kloden or Leipheimer
10. Vandevelde

 

[Liquigas]

It's funny how people tend to forget Basso, he will be on top shape by the second week.

He's the biggest threat that Contador will face.

 

[gustienordic]

Vino

Contenders:

Contador
Schleck
Schleck
Basso
Evans
Sanchez
Gesink
Van den Broeck
Horner
Klöden
Soler (if he stays upright)

Borderline:

Wiggins
Hesjedal
Vandevelde
Vinokourov
Brajkovic

Pretenders:

Leipheimer
Porte
Roche
Cunego
Uran

I have a very hard time seeing Vino coming away with a top 5 finish. I think Wiggins has a much better chance, but mainly from the time trials. His time trialing is pretty strong right now.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I have a very hard time seeing Vino coming away with a top 5 finish. I think Wiggins has a much better chance, but mainly from the time trials. His time trialing is pretty strong right now.

Wiggin's climbing is pretty weak, however. Not good enough for a top 5 finish, I'd say.

 

[jens_attacks]

It's funny how people tend to forget Basso, he will be on top shape by the second week.

He's the biggest threat that Contador will face.

without that fall,it was a sure thing that only basso could stay with andy and alberto.hell i said all last year and in the spring that basso will beat both of them.there are big chances to eat my words.
the only hope is robobasso to comeback!

 

[El Pistolero]

It's funny how people tend to forget Basso, he will be on top shape by the second week.

He's the biggest threat that Contador will face.

Uh no, just look at the time differences of Giro 2011 compared to 2010. Basso is nowhere on the level of Contador. Not even when the latter is tired after a hard Giro.

 

[gilbertador]

Star ratings of tour contenders based on warm up events and history :

Alberto Contador: *****
He hasnt shown anything and may be tired after the Giro but bludy hell was he good there, missing suisse and dauphine is obviously understandable, no previous of 2 GTs back to back but i still wouldnt bet against him, his mountain domestiques include the two that dominated last years tour

Andy Shleck: *** Suisse wasnt convincing but he never is good for more than 4 weeks a year i think he ll be fine but no evidence what so ever of an improved tt

Ivan Basso: * His Etna crash set him back and he was poor at the Dauphine, but liquigas not bringing any other options to the tour would indicate that they are backing him, the dauphine is also a long time before the tour

Bradley Wiggins: **** Hes looking very good although he may have peaked early, if he can carry his form through and improve in the mountains as he says he can i think much to everyones disgust he could top 5

Cadel Evans: ** People may argue with 2 stars but for someone who is always on form the dauphine was far from convincing in the mountains and i believe he will be caught out in the high mountains of the tour, i dont believe he will improve much between now and the pyrenies as he is historically always on form

Radioshack:
Levi: **** looking very good at suisse and looks like he ll improve as well
Kloeden: *** His suisse time trial was excellent and hes had a great season, think he ll always be a number 2 though
Horner: *** No Suisse or Dauphine but he looked excellent in california, he must be very confident but a step to far at 39??

Gesink: **** looked great in Dauphine proving doubters wrong and looked a month from the form of his life for me, the overall didnt reflect his ability but it was clearly a training race

Van Den Broeck: **** great to see him get off the mark i think he will peak right and confirm last years result

Samuel Sanchez: ** similar dauphine to lat year and a quiet build up, think he ll be in form but doubt he ll be in the top 5

Frank Shleck: ** For me hes looking terrible in comparison to last year, a poor tt and no real edge in anything but the first mountain stage, think it will become apparent he number 2 very soon

Vino: ** Similar story to Evans, i think his dropp in tt is alarming and a sign of things to come, i think he ll really dissapoint unfortunately

 

[Anonymous]

Call me a fool but I hate how people are saying Contador is definetly going to win the tour. Nobody, yes nobody is unbeatable.

Anyway, I'd rather wait till after the Tour de Suisse to comment.

an so it has finished....any input?

 

[Clemson Cycling]

Why does Wiggins get 4 *'s and Evans only 2? Their only difference in the Dauphine was the time trail (and this Tour is not a time trialer's Tour). They looked pretty equal in all other aspects.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Why does Wiggins get 4 *'s and Evans only 2? Their only difference in the Dauphine was the time trail (and this Tour is not a time trialer's Tour). They looked pretty equal in all other aspects.

I agree those rankings are pretty odd, but if they are pretty equal in all other respects (I'm taking your word for it) then being considerably quicker on the exact TT in the tour is a pretty good reason to seperate them.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I agree those rankings are pretty odd, but if they are pretty equal in all other respects (I'm taking your word for it) then being considerably quicker on the exact TT in the tour is a pretty good reason to seperate them.

Evans and Wiggins looked evenly matched in one warm up race. Evans has looked better than Wiggins all year and in fact all career.

Evans could have a poor Tour, Wiggins could have an excellent one, but if you were a betting man and were given the same odds on each you'd be a fool to put your money on Wiggins finishing higher on GC.

 

[gilbertador]

Evans and Wiggins looked evenly matched in one warm up race. Evans has looked better than Wiggins all year and in fact all career.

Evans could have a poor Tour, Wiggins could have an excellent one, but if you were a betting man and were given the same odds on each you'd be a fool to put your money on Wiggins finishing higher on GC.

Its because Wiggins beat him and you would expect Evans to have done better in the mountains, you would expect not a lot from wiggins in warm up events but he delivered, i think evans is over the hill if hes dropped by all those people up hill.....

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Its because Wiggins beat him and you would expect Evans to have done better in the mountains, you would expect not a lot from wiggins in warm up events but he delivered, i think evans is over the hill if hes dropped by all those people up hill.....

Evans has just had the best first half of a season he's managed in his entire career. In what possible universe does that indicate that he's over the hill?