Le Tour 2018 stage 14: Saint-Paul-3-Ch. > Mende 188 km

[MatParker117]

Re: Re:

If anyone in a break works with Alaphilippe (or in the unlikely event that they are allowed go, Valverde or Martin) they are certifiably insane.

I think if Valverde wants to go after the stage tomorrow it'd be hard for Movistar to deny him going into the break. The other GC teams won't chase Valverde as he's lost enough time. D Martin they will chase. So you could get Alaphilippe and Valverde in the break together like they were on the last Alpes stage.

Maybe, but what kind of idiot would you have to be to work in a break containing those two on a stage like this?

If Sky decided to take a day off Kwaitkowski.

 

[movingtarget]

Mountain goats to fight this out.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Mountain goats to fight this out. Breaks are not winning in this race and I doubt it starts here.

The break won the first stage in the Alpes.

 

[hfer07]

"G" and the Magic Kenyan to cross the line 20 secs ahead of Dumo.
Stage win is likely to be for Alaphilippe if there is no breakaway.

I wonder if SKY might permit either Bernal or Poels to try their luck in Mende..... ( but who the fvcck am I kidding )

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Mountain goats to fight this out. Breaks are not winning in this race and I doubt it starts here.

The break won the first stage in the Alpes.

Ah yes you are right, I think I was watching the scenery too much yesterday instead of concentrating on the race...........nice win by Ala of course.

 

[The Barb]

Should be a stage for the breakaway but flat start makes it hard to predict.

Alaphillipe the obvious but if there’s a strong climber or two with him he will find the climbs right at his limit.

Valverde is 9 minutes down on GC and 3.5 minutes out of 10th, so I can’t imagine anyone will mind if he goes up the road. The final climb and flat finish should suit him, even though he wasn’t impressive when the Tour was last here (and he doesn’t appear to be at his best).

I’ve settled Ion Izagirre. He has the power to make the break and the ability on sharp climbs to finish it off (especially if the predicted rain comes). Also went well enough on Alpe D’Huez to suggest his form is solid.

Should be an interesting stage though. Won’t be big gaps amongst the GC guys but Roglic could steal a few seconds.

 

[Moviefan1203]

Very interested to see how Thomas/Froome race this one. Not a good finish for them.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Re:

Very interested to see how Thomas/Froome race this one. Not a good finish for them.

Nope, but also not a climb conducive to large gaps. Hence why whether the break makes it is of elevated importance; bonus seconds could be a significant percentage of time gains for GC riders.

 

[wirral]

Re:

QS, Roglic, Martin, Valverde - all the usual suspects

(or G sprints away from Dawg again to gain more seconds, then says Froomey's our leader!)

:lol: Nice one.

 

[Koronin]

Should be a stage for the breakaway but flat start makes it hard to predict.

Alaphillipe the obvious but if there’s a strong climber or two with him he will find the climbs right at his limit.

Valverde is 9 minutes down on GC and 3.5 minutes out of 10th, so I can’t imagine anyone will mind if he goes up the road. The final climb and flat finish should suit him, even though he wasn’t impressive when the Tour was last here (and he doesn’t appear to be at his best).

I’ve settled Ion Izagirre. He has the power to make the break and the ability on sharp climbs to finish it off (especially if the predicted rain comes). Also went well enough on Alpe D’Huez to suggest his form is solid.

Should be an interesting stage though. Won’t be big gaps amongst the GC guys but Roglic could steal a few seconds.

He's not. He said not long before the Tour that he's in race shape but no where near a peak. He's trying to time his 2nd peak for the end of the Vuelta and to hold it through the Worlds.

 

[Asero831]

Should be a stage for the breakaway but flat start makes it hard to predict.

Alaphillipe the obvious but if there’s a strong climber or two with him he will find the climbs right at his limit.

Valverde is 9 minutes down on GC and 3.5 minutes out of 10th, so I can’t imagine anyone will mind if he goes up the road. The final climb and flat finish should suit him, even though he wasn’t impressive when the Tour was last here (and he doesn’t appear to be at his best).

I’ve settled Ion Izagirre. He has the power to make the break and the ability on sharp climbs to finish it off (especially if the predicted rain comes). Also went well enough on Alpe D’Huez to suggest his form is solid.

Should be an interesting stage though. Won’t be big gaps amongst the GC guys but Roglic could steal a few seconds.

He's not. He said not long before the Tour that he's in race shape but no where near a peak. He's trying to time his 2nd peak for the end of the Vuelta and to hold it through the Worlds.

He has been riding 6 weeks now and still not near peak?
I am not really into physiology but how long before a rider reach his peak?

For Boxing, Soccer and Basketball, it takes 6 weeks of daily training to be in peak shape.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

If anyone in a break works with Alaphilippe (or in the unlikely event that they are allowed go, Valverde or Martin) they are certifiably insane.

I think if Valverde wants to go after the stage tomorrow it'd be hard for Movistar to deny him going into the break. The other GC teams won't chase Valverde as he's lost enough time. D Martin they will chase. So you could get Alaphilippe and Valverde in the break together like they were on the last Alpes stage.

Maybe, but what kind of idiot would you have to be to work in a break containing those two on a stage like this?

It's 14th stage, racing was very hard, loads of riders DQ-ed, recovery is the main issue here, Ala is not known as being good at that and Bala is not on some spectacular form. Fresher rider could fancy his chances here. Better work in the break, then sit in the peloton, waiting for Geraint Thomas to win again!

 

[Bavarianrider]

So, will we see a sub 9:30?

Cote de la Croix Neuve-Mende
2015:3,1 km@10,0%---9:38---average speed 19.31 km/h(Quintana-Froome)
---9:43---average speed 19.14 km/h(Alejandro Valverde)
---9:53---average speed 18.82 km/h(Alberto Contador)
---10:20---average speed 18.00 km/h(Steve Cummings)
2012:3,0 km@10,2%---9:52---average speed 18.24 km/h(Lieuwe Westra)
2010:3,1 km@10,0%---9:33---average speed 19.48 km/h(Contador-Rodriguez)
---9:44---average speed 19.12 km/h(A.Schleck-Van Den Broeck-S.Sanchez-Menchov)
2010:3,0 km@10,2%---9:43---average speed 18.52 km/h(Alberto Contador)- Paris-Nice
2007:3,0 km@10,2%---9:39---average speed 18.65 km/h(Alberto Contador)
2005:3,1 km@10,0%---9:12---average speed 20.22 km/h(Armstrong-Basso-Ullrich-Evans)
---9:45---average speed 19.08 km/h(Leipheimer-Rasmussen-Vinokourov)
---10:35---average speed 17.57 km/(Marcos Serrano)
1995:3,1 km@10,0%---9:03---average speed 20.55 km/h(Pantani-Indurain-Riis)-RECORD
---9:48---average speed 18.98 km/h(Laurent Jalabert)

 

[Laplaz]

So, will we see a sub 9:30?

Don't think so, week was too hard.

 

[Gigs_98]

I'd actually really like to see how alaphilippe would perform against the gc contenders. In 2015 the best on this climb were pretty much also the best climbers on the real mountain stages. Quintana and Froome first, Valverde and contador behind them and then Nibali. I think this time things could look very different though.

 

[Red Rick]

I'd actually really like to see how alaphilippe would perform against the gc contenders. In 2015 the best on this climb were pretty much also the best climbers on the real mountain stages. Quintana and Froome first, Valverde and contador behind them and then Nibali. I think this time things could look very different though.

It's always top climbers here. Especially in the Tour. Alaphilippe can attack these kinds of climbs in PV, but in the 3rd weekend of the Tour, no chance in hell he's one of the fastest.

If anything I'm expecting a rather slow ascent cause it's been so hard this week and cause I don't think it will be ridden aggressively.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Same. If this was in week 1 it would be different

 

[Robert5091]

Supposed to be raining on the course.

 

[rghysens]

I'd actually really like to see how alaphilippe would perform against the gc contenders. In 2015 the best on this climb were pretty much also the best climbers on the real mountain stages. Quintana and Froome first, Valverde and contador behind them and then Nibali. I think this time things could look very different though.

It's always top climbers here. Especially in the Tour. Alaphilippe can attack these kinds of climbs in PV, but in the 3rd weekend of the Tour, no chance in hell he's one of the fastest.

If anything I'm expecting a rather slow ascent cause it's been so hard this week and cause I don't think it will be ridden aggressively.

I think sky is at least a bit worried about Dumoulin (imagine Thomas also having a flat/crash at an untimely moment and lose a minut too) and they'll try to distance him further. So they have to throw their cards on the table.

 

[sir fly]

Such a nice stage.
And the views should be great. To me, Massif Central is the prettiest part of France.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Alaphilippe for a 188 km solo.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

LOL

Nobody wants to go in a break with Alaphilippe

 

[Akuryo]

Well, if it sticks, hell get some more points for his jersey

 

[Flamin]

Heavy crosswinds atm.

 

[Laplaz]

Hoooly f***