Le Tour 2018 stage 17: BDL to Saint-Lary-Soulan 65k

[Frosty]

Am hoping some will want to make it a really hard race today as they think they will benefit from that. Maybe some will have team-mates really give it 100% early on today as the time limit is fairly generous and there is a flat stage tomorrow for them to recover. Dan Martin always wants to attack, can see Zakarin trying to get up the road. Quintana should give it a go (but Movistar lost their lead in the team competition yesterday so may play it safe today). Fuglsang may give it a try. If the likes of Bardet want to at least get onto the podium then i think they have to make a proper move today so hopefully Ag2r will have a cunning plan.

Can see the pace from the GC contenders being generally high so the breakaway won't be able to build much of a lead. Majka took it easy yesterday; if he goes in the break then maybe he could stay away, or someone like Mollema, Yates, Nieve, but i can see it being the top GC guys deciding the stage.

Am hoping for a fairly action packed 2+ hours. Even if it's not that great then at least it cuts out the boring middle part of a stage where the breakaway slowly builds their lead.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

If he has the legs to do it, I'm hoping for Froome to attack on the second climb and do the descent alone. That would make things exciting.

Small chance, I know...

He dont need that, SKy must wait attacks, they are in position to win le Tour. Froome is not going to help Thomas or to wait for him if any favourite from Quintana to above go to the attack, he will close that attack. Bernal probably wil be with Thomas.

Froome need more time to Domoulin to win le Tour,although in the last ITT he could even win the stage, but the last climb is kind a Tourmalet, it is very hard, and enough to put in the last Km half a minute in the case Dumo are with the best all the stage.... But Movistar will go into the attack...so just the strongest will be at the end. Not too much speculation for today, not too team work, just the strengh of everyone.

I have some doubt anyway. If Landa go alone with Froome, I am not sure if he will go to ensure the podium or if he will try to put time on Froome and win the stage, even if there is not much time to the others.

I hope to see Valverde on the attack from the begining.

 

[tomorrow]

Re:

Will a break be able to do much on such a short stage even though it got some hard climbs?

it very well may not even come to BOTD and that was probably the plan from the organizers. The ones that are afraid of the time limit will form grupetto from the start. And unless there is really, really slow pace from the start, then nobody besides KOM jersey wannabees will be interesting in some bigger break.

Imho, many small groups in front of bigger yellow jersey group are more probable, because the stage is so short that non GC contenders desiring for a win today will go berserk right from the start. If you look at the profile and steepness of the climbs, there is no point for an attacker to be in a group as the influence of being in a slipstream will be very small

 

[Robert5091]

Re:

Edited the OP to include profiles and climbs.

I hope this stage delivers, but I don’t hold my breath, Froome has to drop Thomas here if he wants to win his 5th Tour.

Thanks for the edit!

We still have Stage 19 and if you liked Froome's ride in the Giro, then I've got a feeling we might be in for a reprise.

 

[Robert5091]

Starting grid?!

 

[loge1884]

Re: Re:

Demare's time will be the limit. So you just have to beat Demare to make sure you stay in the race.

Yeah...but you need at a big advantage going into the final climb because he will be faster than the best GC guys.

not sure, but I thought there was a rule like, "you must not pass riders while taking bidons out of the team car" ....

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Starting grid?!

2 Skys on the first line, 2 Movistar on the second. But if they start all at the same time, there is no difference...Valverde will be on the third and could go into the attack.... if SKy wait for Kiato, it will take some seconds

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

As with every stage or race, the riders make it what it is. Let’s hope some bring it today.

Anyone know the start time?

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

As with every stage or race, the riders make it what it is. Let’s hope some bring it today.

Anyone know the start time?

15:15

 

[loge1884]

the starting grid looks like a sort of marketing gag to me .... it will take less than 2k until all teams are regrouped together .... a bit of a chaotic start yes, but havoc would only be created, if a madman would attack full throttle right from the start - and I can't see anyone of any danger for yellow doing that .... nevertheless the stage is promising, but I only expect real GC action in the last climb (which is damn long though) ... Froome might attack in the second climb, but only if he feels like "Monte Jafferau Froome"

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

Starting grid?!

Will there be a countdown with red lights and then green? What if you do a false start? Is traction control allowed? So many questions.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Demare will be 57 minutes behind on top of the first climb but will manage to finish just inside the time limit once again.

Démare is perhaps candidate for
- the most solo riden kilometers
- the only rider whose biceps is bigger AFTER the tour

Demare wants that win on the Champs-Élysées.

The fact that he still has to do a TT probably won't cheer him up too much.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Re:

Starting grid?!

MvP ftw
mud and all

 

[loge1884]

Re: Re:

Demare will be 57 minutes behind on top of the first climb but will manage to finish just inside the time limit once again.

Démare is perhaps candidate for
- the most solo riden kilometers
- the only rider whose biceps is bigger AFTER the tour

Demare wants that win on the Champs-Élysées.

The fact that he still has to do a TT probably won't cheer him up too much.

actually with today, it's another three time trials .... by the end of the Tour he'll become a seasoned mountain TT-specialist

 

[Poursuivant]

Brutal last climb, brutal.

 

[Lequack]

Honestly, this is such a gimmick, it's not an F1 race where a second advantage at the start is enough to win the race.

 

[glassmoon]

what exactly is the point of this sh*t?

 

[VO2 Max]

If its the first 20 riders at front of grid, I can see krusher going up the road for Roglic with one of the Movistar guys. They need to get SKY working from the start as most people have said. This will test G's mettle today, if he gets through this stage unscathed, I can't see him losing this race, then it's a race for 2nd and 3rd between Dumo and Froome. I can't see Roglic or any of the Movistar lot to make any difference. Hope it isn't a borefest though.

I was surprised Sky didn't send Bernal up the road yesterday. In the big breakaway, he would've entered the top-20 and thus be part of the first cohort of riders. Now Froome and Thomas have no-one in direct support. Of course, probably no-one of relevance will try anything at the start, playing in the hands of Sky once again.

That there wasn't more of a fight to get dom's into the top 20 yesterday certainly suggests they know there'll be small/zero gaps between the groupings. Kwiatkowski did go in one of the pre-protest breaks but he's over an hour outside the top 20, Bernal trying to steal 3mins might have been worth a shot if you anticipated some race-relevant splits, so... The race starts on a wide open highway and steady gradients, so race-wise they may just as well have started with a meandering 100km up the valley roads from Tarbes; and in that scenario you have a chance to put people up the road to make a raid from the Azet more realistic. But it's a gimmick and that's ok. Lots of talk today.

Kruijswijk and Roglic are the ones outside the top 3 that have cards to play. Latour presumably too concerned about the white jersey to really gamble on Bardet's behalf; Movistar will continue being Movistar. I could see the final climb being good for Roglic, but can I see the Peyresourde being tough enough for Steven K to really open things up before everyone has a chance to regroup? I doubt it. It's a struggle looking down the GC to find anyone to be the Contador-style fire starter, Quintana surely can't be worried about risking his eighth place but can you really see him going for it from the start??

Break containing GVA goes and the train regroups on early slopes of Peyresourde, possible counterattacks from guys like Majka on the tougher climb of Azet, GC slugfest on the Portet.

 

[Robert5091]

Is it too early to say, I hate the "starting grid" idea?

 

[Leinster]

It's a struggle looking down the GC to find anyone to be the Contador-style fire starter,

Dan Martin.

Thing is, everyone knows he doesn’t have the long range engine to make it stick, so unlikely that anyone will follow.

 

[Lequack]

Re:

Is it too early to say, I hate the "starting grid" idea?

Does anyone really think G and Froome will go full on from the line without waiting for their team?

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

what exactly is the point of this sh*t?

To block out the Sky domestiques ? Must be a French thing.........

 

[bob.a.feet]

Surely Quintana or Landa or Valverde has to attack early

 

[Poursuivant]

Re: Re:

Starting grid?!

Will there be a countdown with red lights and then green? What if you do a false start? Is traction control allowed? So many questions.

They are doing a 65km formation lap.

 

[Robert5091]

All we need is Spartacus doing "vroom vroom" sounds and the ambience would be perfect.