Le Tour de France 2011 - the big one is coming

[King Of The Wolds]

The biggest problem with the Tour is predictability. I don't have to watch the race to know Gilbert is going to win at least two of the three uphill sprints, Cavendish is going to win at least 3 bunch sprints, and HTC will win the TTT.

Harsh. You can't decide a route with particular riders in mind and can't penalise Cav and Gilbert because they're so good at what they do. You decide a route which has something for all types of riders and let the cream rise to the top.

Should the Giro not have put mountains in because Contador was going and, without Schleck, he wouldn't have a worthy adversary?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think you exerate a bit, but you can't really blame the route then anyway. Come on want more could you excpect from the first week?

Something other than total flatness? Something tough enough to give a break a chance? An ITT like Cholet in 2008 instead of a TTT?

Week 1 is going to be HTC getting Cavendish into yellow in the TTT, then holding the break at between 2 and 3 minutes up the road for the entire stage for most of the rest of the week, because god forbid anybody actually think they might have a chance. If the break get more than 4 minutes up the road then it's super scary cos we might not get our beloved sprint! I just hope Lotto don't lose so much time in the TTT that Gilbert can't get back into yellow on Mur de Brétagne, cos then HTC might not do the whole controlling job.

Sprint stages are usually dull, but considering the break is never given enough rope to even dare to dream in Le Tour, sprint stages are invariably dull there.

The only one of Cavendish's Tour wins I remember having any interest whatsoever in was stage 19 to Aubenas in 2009. The rest of it was worthless racing on worthless stages until the last 3km.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Something other than total flatness? Something tough enough to give a break a chance? An ITT like Cholet in 2008 instead of a TTT?

Week 1 is going to be HTC getting Cavendish into yellow in the TTT, then holding the break at between 2 and 3 minutes up the road for the entire stage for most of the rest of the week, because god forbid anybody actually think they might have a chance. If the break get more than 4 minutes up the road then it's super scary cos we might not get our beloved sprint!

Sprint stages are usually dull, but considering the break is never given enough rope to even dare to dream in Le Tour, sprint stages are invariably dull there.

The only one of Cavendish's Tour wins I remember having any interest whatsoever in was stage 19 to Aubenas in 2009. The rest of it was worthless racing on worthless stages until the last 3km.

In the first 9 days there are like 3 sprint finishes? I don't think you can call this total flatness
Cavendish most certainly will never wear yellow in this Tour!

 

[saganftw]

there is still possibility that contador wont be invited if CHP doesnt want to take the risk of disqualifiying 2010 and 2011 victories

TdF w/o contador has a decent chance to be better than Giro even though the course itself sux

 

[goggalor]

As long as there are few sprint stages, I don't mind waiting for the mountains. Sprint stages are abominations.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Mass sprints in the first 9 days will be 3,5,7 and maybe 6 (but 6 is not sure at all.)

 

[inri2000]

there is still possibility that contador wont be invited if CHP doesnt want to take the risk of disqualifiying 2010 and 2011 victories

TdF w/o contador has a decent chance to be better than Giro even though the course itself sux

I don't think that is a possibility, didn't the UCI change the rules so they have to invitete all Pro Tour teams after what happened in 2008?

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Cavendish most certainly will never wear yellow in this Tour!

Agreed, he'll be beaten by some of his HTC team mates in Stage 1, so, even if HTC win the TTT, one of them will be wearing yellow. He won't wear yellow unless there are time bonuses, and there aren't.

And it makes no difference who's wearing yellow - HTC, with help from Sky, Lampre and Garmin, will still control the break.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

In the first 9 days there are 3 sprint finishes? I don't think you can call this total flatness

stage 1: totally flat until a cat.4 finish - 2,4km @ 4,8%. May as well not watch until the final climb.

stage 2: TTT.

stage 3: totally flat

stage 4: almost totally flat until a cat.3 finish - 2,2km @ 6,5%. May as well not watch until just before the final climb.

stage 5: totally flat

stage 6: mostly flat, a bit rolling. A small, uncategorised climb (considering climbs of 2km @ 3% get categorised in the Tour that doesn't fill me with confidence) less than 2km from the end. If we're lucky, it'll be like the Tropea stage of the Giro.

stage 7: totally flat

stage 8: oh hey look! A climb! What the hell is one of those? Don't worry though, we've made sure to only have a short one at the end, cos we were terrified that there'd be gaps on the GC before week 3 and we're trying to artificially engineer a close finish again.

stage 9: rolling stage. Quite a few climbs but a flattish finish. Probably a reduced sprint or a break is allowed to go and take yellow ahead of the mountains.

stage 10: mostly flat but maybe the sprinters will be made to work.

stage 11: totally flat

 

[saganftw]

I don't think that is a possibility, didn't the UCI change the rules so they have to invitete all Pro Tour teams after what happened in 2008?

they can invite saxosunguard...just w/o contador

if i was in charge i would seriously consider not invinting him because can you imagine the fiasco if you have to DQ him from past two years?

 

[Angliru]

Anyone but Andy

My sentiments exactly! I'm personally hoping that Basso and Samu have the rides of their lives, putting Andy in all types of difficulty. Gesink to have an crash/injury free Tour and show a progression that has Andy unable to drop him, consequently mumbling to himself something about "...but I'm the best climber in the world! This can't be!" before losing his lunch from the butterflies developing in his belly, realizing that once again he's falling short of his massively ego driven expectations.

Seriously though it is Andy's race to lose. Basso isn't having the ideal buildup to put up a proper challenge what with his crash and his results this year have been less than impressive. I honestly can't see Evans challenging, nor can I see Gesink or Samu although nothing would please me more. I think my best chance for an Andy-not-on-the-top-podium-step Tour is that he bonks from not eating after being isolated after doing something ridiculous like fetching bottles on a penultimate climb of a stage with a mtf, losing major minutes ala 2008, leaving him having to work for his big brother.

I think it's a good sign (for me) that he's abruptly changed his schedule this week, eliminating the Tour of Luxemburgh (sp). Maybe the ToC hype of his being in better form for this time of year than last year and the subsequent lack of results caused a slight panic in the Leopard camp. That coupled with the news of the delay in the CAS decision possibly giving Contador a better chance of participating in the Tour.

I think what I'm smelling here is fear!

 

[gregrowlerson]

I have checked out the full parcours.......finally. It's been a long wait!

The Tour is now even MORE backended. :-(

I am very impressed with stage 16 into Gap which could have an impact on GC, however I was expecting more out of stage 8 to Super-Besse. It's not super at all. I thought that was going to be a medium MTF???

For GC it's a case of taking an interest in stage 2 and maybe stage 4; then hit the snooze button until stage 12!

As far as a comparison with this years Giro goes, every stage from 13-21 is at least slightly interesting in the Giro, and the same can be said for the Tour from stages 12-21, except for 15 and 21. But at least the Giro had Etna and a couple of other reasonable stages early on.

 

[Bavarianrider]

stage 1: totally flat until a cat.4 finish - 2,4km @ 4,8%. May as well not watch until the final climb.

stage 2: TTT.

stage 3: totally flat

stage 4: almost totally flat until a cat.3 finish - 2,2km @ 6,5%. May as well not watch until just before the final climb.

stage 5: totally flat

stage 6: mostly flat, a bit rolling. A small, uncategorised climb (considering climbs of 2km @ 3% get categorised in the Tour that doesn't fill me with confidence) less than 2km from the end. If we're lucky, it'll be like the Tropea stage of the Giro.

stage 7: totally flat

stage 8: oh hey look! A climb! What the hell is one of those? Don't worry though, we've made sure to only have a short one at the end, cos we were terrified that there'd be gaps on the GC before week 3 and we're trying to artificially engineer a close finish again.

stage 9: rolling stage. Quite a few climbs but a flattish finish. Probably a reduced sprint or a break is allowed to go and take yellow ahead of the mountains.

stage 10: mostly flat but maybe the sprinters will be made to work.

stage 11: totally flat

So want do you want tosee 3 weeks in the high mountains. This years first ten days of the Tour are not bad at all and there are more then enough mountains in the last two weeks. So if you don't like the Tour just don't watch it, but this kind of hating is silly.

 

[Bavarianrider]

I have checked out the full parcours.......finally. It's been a long wait!

The Tour is now even MORE backended. :-(

I am very impressed with stage 16 into Gap which could have an impact on GC, however I was expecting more out of stage 8 to Super-Besse. It's not super at all. I thought that was going to be a medium MTF???

For GC it's a case of taking an interest in stage 2 and maybe stage 4; then hit the snooze button until stage 12!

As far as a comparison with this years Giro goes, every stage from 13-21 is at least slightly interesting in the Giro, and the same can be said for the Tour from stages 12-21, except for 15 and 21. But at least the Giro had Etna and a couple of other reasonable stages early on.

The last two stages at the Giro were borefests, nothing intersting at all

 

[Lanark]

Harsh. You can't decide a route with particular riders in mind and can't penalise Cav and Gilbert because they're so good at what they do. You decide a route which has something for all types of riders and let the cream rise to the top.

Should the Giro not have put mountains in because Contador was going and, without Schleck, he wouldn't have a worthy adversary?

No, you don't have to make every stage for either a puncheur or a sprinter. Take a look at the Giro, you had the stage where Weylandt was tragically killed that on paper had a great final, you had the stage after that with a tought climb 10km before the finish, the strade bianche, the tough finishes where Ventoso and Gatto won, the Tirreno-like stage to Castelfidardo. But the difference was that these are all unpredictable (6 stages among the first 11!), in all those stages you had a lot of different category of rides who could win (just look at the Gatto-stage for that). The Saint-Flour stage (9) is the only one in the first 12 days that is really unpredictable, the rest is just waiting for the same old scenario to unfold.

 

[Jamsque]

Hey guess what guys. Contador. Winning. Book.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

So want do you want tosee 3 weeks in the high mountains.

Oh, that would be nice.

This years first ten days of the Tour are not bad at all and there are more then enough mountains in the last two weeks. So if you don't like the Tour just don't watch it, but this kind of hating is silly.

I won't watch it. I'll be at work through most of it. Catching the last 5km on the highlights show or replay. I could watch the whole show, but it probably won't be worth it. If I was able to watch it, it would mean I would probably have nothing better to do, and I'd moan all the way through it anyway.

The Tour route isn't too imbalanced this year. I'd prefer a less predictable set of mountains and a better MTF than Serre Chevallier, and maybe another ITT instead of the TTT. But the problem is a pacing issue, not a balance issue. The GC guys will pretty much hibernate until the end of week 2, so basically everybody's peaking at exactly the same time and the first 2 weeks are virtually pointless. This is the Tour de France, so you know pretty much nobody important to the GC's taking risks tiring themselves out for a few seconds here and there, especially with no time boni available.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

This years Tour really looks a bit like a Giro route.

The Tour de France route has more similarities to Tour of Qatar than to the Giro...

 

[dabar85]

Yes you can predict tour because you know what are the best riders for any type of stage. This breaks what's happening with giro in last few kilometers are impossible in tour because of great speed of peloton. Than at stages with short climbs at the end. Do you really think that gadret or someone similar is match for gilbert. You can also say that LBL, AG were predictable like this stages. Cavendish is the best sprinter and of course he will win the sprinters stages, but this year it's reduced to 5-6 stages. Than in mountains you have Schleck and Contador who are above everybody and of course they win. TT same with Cancellara. Giro is excited, but lacks with one huge thing, class of riders in all areas, from domestics to mountain riders and that is why tour is the biggest race, independent of parcours. What I miss in tour parcours is something like cobbles stage where differences can be made and some riders put themselves in service of the team like cancellara last year where easily he could won the stage but he didn't because of andy.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yes you can predict tour because you know what are the best riders for any type of stage. This breaks what's happening with giro in last few kilometers are impossible in tour because of great speed of peloton. Than at stages with short climbs at the end. Do you really think that gadret or someone similar is match for gilbert. You can also say that LBL, AG were predictable like this stages. Cavendish is the best sprinter and of course he will win the sprinters stages, but this year it's reduced to 5-6 stages. Than in mountains you have Schleck and Contador who are above everybody and of course they win. TT same with Cancellara. Giro is excited, but lacks with one huge thing, class of riders in all areas, from domestics to mountain riders and that is why tour is the biggest race, independent of parcours. What I miss in tour parcours is something like cobbles stage where differences can be made and some riders put themselves in service of the team like cancellara last year where easily he could won the stage but he didn't because of andy.

In which case you provide stages that don't follow the formula of "flat stage"/"short climb finish"/"high mountain stage".

Here is the profile of the Rund um den Finanzplatz Eschborn-Frankfurt:

That has a couple of flat laps. It includes a long and gradual climb, and a short and steep climb.

This year, it was won in a sprint of 70 riders.
Last year, it was won from a sprint of 25 riders.
In 2009, it was won in a two-up sprint ahead of a group of 4 and then a 30-strong group a minute back.
In 2008, a group of 9 contested the win.
In 2007 it was won solo ahead of several splintered groups.

That's 5 editions over the same parcours, and 5 different types of finish. The winners? Sinkewitz, Kroon, Wegmann, Wegmann and Degenkolb - all very different riders. Still too similar for you? In 2006 Stefano Garzelli won, and in 2005 Erik Zabel won. Different enough?

Personally I'd knock a circuit or two off the race to bring the climbs closer to the finish to make attacking earlier on into a bigger threat, but that's the kind of thing we mean by something that doesn't quite fit the mould. There's no hill at the end for Gilbert to crush people on, but it's clearly lumpy enough to cause Cavendish some trouble. You don't know before the race starts what kind of rider is going to win.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Guess which is the Tour and which the Giro?

This year's Tour is absolutely nothing like this Giro.

Super Besse this year looks ****. Why aren't they doing a similar sor of stage to what they did in2008. I thought Super besse in 2008 was quite entertaining.

So want do you want tosee 3 weeks in the high mountains. This years first ten days of the Tour are not bad at all and there are more then enough mountains in the last two weeks. So if you don't like the Tour just don't watch it, but this kind of hating is silly.

I agree, people just want 3 weeks of climbing. You have to give the sprinters something. Sprinting is an important element of the sport.

Stages I like:

Stage 5 to Cap Frehel: I think this will be a very interesting stage. Lots of rolling hills with big chances of cross winds which could be descisive.

Stage 6 to Lisieux: Some rolling hills which will suit the attacker.

Stage 14 to Plateau de Beille: It is a really tough stage with a really tough final climb.

And of course the stages to Serre Chevlier and the Alpe..

I think having climbs on the finishes of stage 1, 4 and 6 makes things a bit more unpredictable which is good.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

You have to give the sprinters something. Sprinting is an important element of the sport.

They already get something. It's called the Tour Down Under.

Besides, the points jersey is biased towards sprinters even before this year's modifications.

 

[dabar85]

In which case you provide stages that don't follow the formula of "flat stage"/"short climb finish"/"high mountain stage".

Here is the profile of the Rund um den Finanzplatz Eschborn-Frankfurt:

That has a couple of flat laps. It includes a long and gradual climb, and a short and steep climb.

This year, it was won in a sprint of 70 riders.
Last year, it was won from a sprint of 25 riders.
In 2009, it was won in a two-up sprint ahead of a group of 4 and then a 30-strong group a minute back.
In 2008, a group of 9 contested the win.
In 2007 it was won solo ahead of several splintered groups.

That's 5 editions over the same parcours, and 5 different types of finish. The winners? Sinkewitz, Kroon, Wegmann, Wegmann and Degenkolb - all very different riders. Still too similar for you? In 2006 Stefano Garzelli won, and in 2005 Erik Zabel won. Different enough?

Personally I'd knock a circuit or two off the race to bring the climbs closer to the finish to make attacking earlier on into a bigger threat, but that's the kind of thing we mean by something that doesn't quite fit the mould. There's no hill at the end for Gilbert to crush people on, but it's clearly lumpy enough to cause Cavendish some trouble. You don't know before the race starts what kind of rider is going to win.

In frankfurt yes in tour no. And who can win this type of stage even if cavendish is relegated, hushovd(wheel sucker) like last year WRR: Let'see giro stages that was unpredictable this year, if there was gilbert he could win all of them. You need to find balance not to favour sprinters and puncheurs but that in tour is very hard because teams are very strong and ride for GC doesn't alove this type of racing. And if you get rid of Cav, there are few more sprinters who can contest stage victory and then their team would work hard to make it sprint.

 

[Ferminal]

They have profiles for all stages now... 7 Cav stages, 2 Gilbert stages, some lifeless intermediates and four true mountain stages.

I thought it was a good course, I think the MTFs are the real deal. But Luz Ardiden is Stage 12, we have the two Gilbert finishes in the first week, the TTT, and Super Besse. I'm not sure that can hold my interest for 12 days, but I will give it a go. Luz Ardiden and Galibier MTF will be the most decisive. If you only want 4 MTFs at least have a couple of interesting descents. I don't expect much from the Pinerolo stage, and the Aubisque one is horrible.

 

[jobiwan]

As I enjoy both the sprint stages and mountains, I enjoy this route.
EXCEPT STAGE 13. What is the deal with the Aubisque??

This year:

Last year:

Last year could have been an awesome stage, had it been done in reverse.
Thor Hushovd should not be getting points at the end of a mountain stage!! Enough said.
Obviously Prudhomme has a fascination with the Aubisque.
I guess in the stage this year you'll get one of the usual guys winning: Fedrigo, Casar, Voeckler, Cunego, LL Sanchez - you know, those guys.
Unless someone wants to race it like the Madeleine, I doubt we'll see anything here.

It also looks like the Grenoble TT will be in in the Dauphine, so we'll get a preview. More like the 2009 Annecy TT than the Bordeaux TT, which is good. (And shorter, so Andy has a chance!)