Le Tour de France 2013: who will win?

[cineteq]

But racing the Tour as domestique had a worse affect on Froomes form than not enough racing had on Contadors form.

How can you support that? Better be good.

 

[El Pistolero]

Read my last post I made before the one you quoted. Of course not having much racing days affected Contador, I never said it didn't. But racing the Tour as domestique had a worse affect on Froomes form than not enough racing had on Contadors form.

Where's the proof for that? Would Froome have won the Vuelta had he been in Contador's shoes? Who knows... Normally a rider doesn't do well in his first big race when he comes back after a ban. And remember: Contador had barely raced since the 2011 Tour, so it might as well have been a one year ban.

 

[Afrank]

How can you support that? Better be good.

Where's the proof for that? Would Froome have won the Vuelta had he been in Contador's shoes? Who knows... Normally a rider doesn't do well in his first big race when he comes back after a ban. And remember: Contador had barely raced since the 2011 Tour, so it might as well have been a one year ban.

Really? It was pretty obvious in the Vuelta that Froome was fatigued and his form on a downward trend. And Contador got better the further into the Vuelta they went. One of them was suffering from lack of race days, the other from too much racing prior to Vuelta. It's pretty obvious that racing the tour had more of a negative effect on Froomes form and chances in the Vuelta then not enough racing had on Contadors form and chances in the Vuelta.

I'm not saying Froome had he not done the tour would have beaten Contador in the Vuleta, but he wouldn't have been 10 minutes back.

 

[The Hitch]

That's the strongest support Contador has ever had by absolutely miles, given that when he was on the same team as Armstrong, the rest were very much Armstrong's support riders than his.

I'm actually sort of curious about what use Contador will have for them. It's not like he needs a mountain train. His rivals would probably benefit more than him if these guys set some strong, metronomic, pace. I'm guessing that he'll be sending some of those high level climbers off up the road quite a lot.

Contador might not need them, but when it comes to the TDF Contador leaves no stone unturned.

I dont think he will attack every mountain stage like 2011 giro and 2012 vuelta, He will attack on 1 maybe 2 stages to break everyone, supplement the gap to andy anyway in the tts, then the train will be there in case he needs to bring Andy back on some new wannabe Mercx attempts in the high mountain stages, or if he feels good and wants a high pace on early climbs, theyll be there just in case.

If he is on form, it might turn out that the train was a total waste of money and he could have won without them, but he does not want to take that risk.

 

[cineteq]

Really? It was pretty obvious in the Vuelta that Froome was fatigued and his form on a downward trend. And Contador got better the further into the Vuelta they went. One of them was suffering from lack of race days, the other from too much racing prior to Vuelta. It's pretty obvious that racing the tour had more of a negative effect on Froomes form and chances in the Vuelta then not enough racing had on Contadors form and chances in the Vuelta.

I'm not saying Froome had he not done the tour would have beaten Contador in the Vuleta, but he wouldn't have been 10 minutes back.

It's pretty obvious? Tired from the Tour? You're repeating yourself. Think about it, how much effort did Froome put in the Tour?. Gesink finished 2 minutes back from Froome, and he had a good excused to finish 6th. Try again maybe?

 

[Afrank]

It's pretty obvious? Tired from the Tour? You're repeating yourself. Think about it, how much effort did Froome put in the Tour?. Gesink finished 2 minutes back from Froome, and he had a good excused to finish 6th. Try again maybe?

I don't understand the confusion on this. Froome was fatigued in the Vuelta, before the Vuelta he raced Romandie, Dauphine, the Tour, and the Olympics. Racing a lot is what causes fatigue in a rider. So Froome was fatigued in the Vuelta because of the racing he did right before entering it in the Olympics, Tour, and Dauphine (can also be included).

Why are you denying Froome was fatigued? Isn't this something that has been accepted by everyone? Unless you think Contador (a Contador that wasn't even in top form) is just naturally 10 minutes stronger than Froome?

Also Gesink is far below Froome's level.

 

[cineteq]

Why are you denying Froome was fatigued? Isn't this something that has been accepted by everyone?

Based on what? Accepted by everyone? Hint: see Valverde's season.

Unless you think Contador (a Contador that wasn't even in top form) is just naturally 10 minutes stronger than Froome?

Contador was in top form, thus he won a GT.

Also Gesink is far below Froome's level.

I'm gonna let a Dutchie answer this. If none comes forward, I will.

 

[Afrank]

Based on what? Accepted by everyone? Hint: see Valverde's season.

Now your just trolling, Froome entered the Vuelta as one of the contenders and looked good at first, then he got worse and worse the further into the race he went. Anybody who watched the Vuleta could tell that his form was on a downward slope. As for Valverde, he was coming back from a ban, he needed a GT in his legs. And what did he do at the tour? The only time he was on the front was when he won on Peyragudes. He finished 42 minutes back in 20th place.

Contador was in top form, thus he won a GT.

Yeah, spending 6 months out of competition gets you in great form . Did you even watch the Vuelta? He didn't have the endurance to maintain his attacks, it was only thanks to Fuente de that he won, and Rodriguez came dangerously close to beating him. If he was in top form he would have won like he did in Giro 2011.

 

[Ferminal]

Valverde rode the Tour full gas?

Froome's 2nd and 4th are obviously much better than Valverde's 20whatever and 2nd.

If Valverde tried as hard as Froome in the Tour it would be 5th and 20whatever.

 

[cineteq]

Now your just trolling, Froome entered the Vuelta as one of the contenders and looked good at first, then he got worse and worse the further into the race he went. Anybody who watched the Vuleta could tell that his form was on a downward slope.

Troll? You sound like broken record, repeating yourself. Sorry.

As for Valverde, he was coming back from a ban, he needed a GT in his legs. And what did he do at the tour? The only time he was on the front was when he won on Peyragudes. He finished 42 minutes back in 20th place.

LOL. But did you happen to watch stage 6? Just sayin'.

Yeah, spending 6 months out of competition gets you in great form . Did you even watch the Vuelta? He didn't have the endurance to maintain his attacks, it was only thanks to Fuente de that he won, and Rodriguez came dangerously close to beating him. If he was in top form he would have won like he did in Giro 2011.

I have news for you, that was Contador in top form. Learn it. Did you know by any chance that Contador was DQ'ed from Giro 2011? Do you want me to tell you why?

 

[Afrank]

Troll? You sound like broken record, repeating yourself. Sorry.

And you have yet provide any meaningful argument that Froome wasn't fatigued at the Vuelta.

LOL. But did you happen to watch stage 6? Just sayin'.

Did you happen to see stage 7, 11, 16, 17, and any other stage with a catorgized climb? Froome finished 2nd while working for Wiggins. Where did Valverde finish? 20th, 42 minutes back (and he wasn't working for anyone). Sorry but Valverde did no where near the same amount of work that Froome did.

I have news for you, that was Contador in top form. Learn it. Did you know by any chance that Contador was DQ'ed from Giro 2011? Do you want me to tell you why?

Now you want to bring up the clinic . He had that result taken away because according to his backdated ban he shouldn't have been there.

You can stop this useless train of thought any time. The facts are Contador wasn't in top shape because of a lack of racing days, Froome was fatigued do to too much racing prior to the Vuelta.

 

[The Hitch]

Contador was in top form, thus he won a GT.

Lol what stupid logic.

Did you know by any chance that Contador was DQ'ed from Giro 2011? Do you want me to tell you why?

Go on.

I have news for you, that was Contador in top form. Learn it.

you are like those drug addicts on the street shouting that the world is about to.end. "because i say so". Difference is no one actually believes you.

Do you think anyone is going to.believe your unexplained theories to heart just because you order them" learn it"

 

[The Hitch]

Troll? You sound like broken record, repeating yourself. Sorry.

And you have yet provide any meaningful argument that Froome wasn't fatigued at the Vuelta.

I have news for you, that was Contador in top form. Learn it. Did you know by any chance that Contador was DQ'ed from Giro 2011? Do you want me to tell you why?

You can stop this useless train of thought any time. The facts are Contador wasn't in top shape because of a lack of racing days, Froome was fatigued do to too much racing prior to the Vuelta.

 

[greenedge]

If he is on form, it might turn out that the train was a total waste of money and he could have won without them, but he does not want to take that risk.

And the A squad on Bank-Bank:

Contador
Kreuziger
Majka
Hernandez/Bennati
CAS
Roche
Paulinho
Tosatto

Morkov (good in a TTT), Zaugg (who i love) and Nicki Sorensen as well. Also his best buddy- Noval.

Couldn't some of those train riders go to other races as well- Majka and Kreuziger to Giro.

 

[airstream]

In La Toussuire let him go? In Peyragudes stage when he attacked? Pinot didnt take any important advantages due to Sky let him go. Maybe only in Porrentruy stage, not more than 1 minute.

Pinot? No doubt. The stage wasn't a priority for Sky. If Thibaut had attacked without Nibali and VdB, Sky would have done nothing. It is approximately like Rujano on the Etna or Van Endert in the Pyrenees last year. When Rujano made his move, the tempo wasn't going to increase until Contador attacked. Pure tactics. Classical plot.

Plenty of guys do the Tour-Vuelta. Of course he wasn't on top form, but this guy didn't race a lot this year. He basically did nothing and then hit form out of nowhere at the Dauphin&#233]
It could and it did, but obviously not that much like in case of Froome. One more trait is Contador never needed the time to jump into shape since Bruyneel times. Even after continuous breaks he usually goes back on the highest level and a bit later on a victorious one. It is the only rider with this characteristic feature.

 

[greenedge]

Same for Rogers / Porte / Knees ( very underestimated doemstique ).

Which team will be stronger? Sky or SBTB? Let's make two fives: Froome, Henao, Urán, Kiriyenka, EBH. Contador, Kreuziger, Roche, Majka, CAnkerS. Of course Sky has more alternatives: Locke, Cataldo, Rogers, Porte, Sivtsov, Dombrowski... But IMO SBTB is no far in a nine team.

Lopez as well. If you say Dombrowski Boswell should also be mentioned but i doubt either would be riding the TDF or Giro- the Vuelta would be better for them (if it is like this years) as it would have more climbs and they would probably be more adjusted.

Pate is also underrated- he just did not get a look into the TDF squad.

 

[ferryman]

Doesn't change the fact that Sky's team is the strongest.

It doesn't but equally it doesn't change the fact that they will likely be left chasing shadows when Contador seriously goes. And, in the interest of fairness, when Andy counters or goes himself

 

[airstream]

Planches de Belles Filles was ridden so fast that Contador and Schleck would have had to give a cooperative Verbier wattage in order to try to get away on there which is not very likely as it were. However people have no doubt they would attacked successfully. Honestly, while watching that stage I was wondering if it was possible to attack there at all. On Сroix de Fer Sky even without Froome neutralized Evans who was relatively fresh after 90 km of the stage and went all or nothing. To say that Froome or Nibali is a second sort of climbers is not very logical. The contention got tougher on the climbs in comparison to '09 and '10, one should admit this.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Oh it's tuesday night...wed. morning...is it troll night? This is the weakest statement in a while by far. Hope she doesn't take it personally.

Of course not

 

[airstream]

Valverde rode the Tour full gas?

Froome's 2nd and 4th are obviously much better than Valverde's 20whatever and 2nd.

If Valverde tried as hard as Froome in the Tour it would be 5th and 20whatever.

Something very close to full gas. He did everything he could without considering TT's maybe. Valverde capitulated only on Toussuire. The rest stages are overcome pretty strongly. Anyways he was riding the first GT after suspension and it was Tour with its special requirements. Moreover, in recent history no one performed in the Vuelta after the Tour so good like him. 15 (?) and 2 places is not so impressive as 1/3 (Sastre) and 6/4 (Rodriguez), but it is just amazing what Alex did.

Lol what stupid logic

Your logic is other rider in top shape can not be equal to Contador in top shape just cuz this is Contador. Not too smart as well.

 

[Ferminal]

Something very close to full gas. He did everything he could without considering TT's maybe. Valverde capitulated only on Toussuire. The rest stages are overcome pretty strongly. Anyways he was riding the first GT after suspension and it was Tour with its special requirements. Moreover, in recent history no one performed in the Vuelta after the Tour so good like him. 15 (?) and 2 places is not so impressive as 1/3 (Sastre) and 6/4 (Rodriguez), but it is just amazing what Alex did.

So Valverde, on top form, riding at his limit, wouldn't have been in the lead group on any mountain stage in the Tour?

My point is that comparing Valverde and Froome's Tour-Vuelta is ridiculous because they prioritised different events and hence why Froome was far better in the Tour and Valverde in the Vuelta. The "Valverde wasn't tired in the Vuelta so why would Froome" is false for this reason.

 

[airstream]

So Valverde, on top form, riding at his limit, wouldn't have been in the lead group on any mountain stage in the Tour?

My point is that comparing Valverde and Froome's Tour-Vuelta is ridiculous because they prioritised different events and hence why Froome was far better in the Tour and Valverde in the Vuelta. The "Valverde wasn't tired in the Vuelta so why would Froome" is false for this reason.

IMO Valverde rather rode both GT's like sort of experiment and observed how he succeeded. As far as I remember a decision to ride the Vuelta was made shortly before the race? Or you think he prepared for the Vuelta in the Tour? The thing is no matter how Valverde was going Froome gave more effort in the Tour.

 

[Ferminal]

IMO Valverde rather rode both GT's like sort of experiment and observed how he succeeded. As far as I remember a decision to ride the Vuelta was made shortly before the race? Or you think he prepared for the Vuelta in the Tour? The thing is no matter how Valverde was going Froome gave more effort in the Tour.

I think Valverde planned to get a good result in the Tour but early events made that impossible. So he turned it down a notch in the Tour (except for the stage win) and set himself on being at his best for the Vuelta. Something like Menchov in 2007 or Evans in 2009.

 

[movingtarget]

Valverde rode the Tour full gas?

Froome's 2nd and 4th are obviously much better than Valverde's 20whatever and 2nd.

If Valverde tried as hard as Froome in the Tour it would be 5th and 20whatever.

I agree. Once Valverde dropped enough time to realise he would not make the podium he just concerned himself with getting a stage win which he did and was probably already thinking of the Vuelta. I think it was a smart move. He was aiming high before the Tour but decided to forego a reasonable ride in the Tour and go for the Vuelta. But it was obviously good training for him as he rode a great race in the Vuelta. I did not expect him to do so well.

 

[The Hitch]

Your logic is other rider in top shape can not be equal to Contador in top shape just cuz this is Contador. Not too smart as well.

Ever heard of Darwin? Some are just stronger than others. When a lion fights a gazelle the lion wins every time. Yet what you are arguing is that if the lion hasn't fought a gazelle in a while we have to assume the gazelle has grown claws and teeth. and that we are stupid to say otherwise.

Did indurain or.hinault or merckx win 1 gt then step aside. Or did they keep winning?

The strong win and continue to win. You know why?

Cos they are ****ing stronger.