Liège - Bastogne - Liège 2025, 27th April

[Berniece]

The last monument of this spring, and compared to the last 4 years we are finally getting a real battle. Pogacar with a declining form, Evenepoel with an increasing one, and a couple of riders that have also shown to be ready for a fight. Not to discredit Skjelmose's win, but this will give hope to a lot of riders that they are also able to win. On top of that we might also get a rare appearance of Vingegaard the 1-day racer.

Route


Startlist
Complete startlist can be found here, but is not final yet

 

[Red Rick]

Think Amstel is gonna be a false dawn that gives false hope here.

 

[topcat]

Think Amstel is gonna be a false dawn that gives false hope here.

I think so too but we're going to have to watch just in case.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

If they're both unimpacted by bad luck, and learned their lesson with regards to tactics (Remco's positioning, Pog saving firepower deeper into the finale), the logical outcome is Pog solo for 1st, and Remco solo for 2nd.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

We also said that we would get a real battle here in 2023 (and possibly 2022) so don‘t celebrate too early.

 

[RedheadDane]

Two very important pieces of information missing from the thread title.

1. The fact that it's a One-Day Monument.
2. The fact that it's the Men's Race.

 

[topcat]

I assume the op will be updated with details such as
4th monument
One day or two day monument? (Gentle suggestion of 6 and a quarter hour monument)
Poll on what position Ala will finish.
Suggestions on how to amuse oneself while waiting for the action to commence.
Probability of getting a great race with suspense late into the race.
Will there be an * on the win without MvdP here?

 

[Berniece]

Think Amstel is gonna be a false dawn that gives false hope here.

You think Pogacar will win easily? It's still 35km's after top of La Redoute. That's a long solo when your form is declining. Unless it isn't declining of course

 

[Red Rick]

You think Pogacar will win easily? It's still 35km's after top of La Redoute. That's a long solo when your form is declining. Unless it isn't declining of course

I don't think it's declining. I think a strong chase versus a solo rider is a lot less difficult than many thought it was. It's never been a big solo race the way Liege can be when 1 rider just dominates the rest.

 

[YavorD]

Think Amstel is gonna be a false dawn that gives false hope here.

Like these old editions of Emilia in the early days of Pogacar's domination where he seemed beatable?
Sounds about right.

 

[RedheadDane]

4th monument

Or is it the first Monument? Since it's the oldest. The Old Lady.

 

[Red Rick]

Like these old editions of Emilia in the early days of Pogacar's domination where he seemed beatable?
Sounds about right.

Hope shall get even falser if Pogacar implodes on the Mur and gets like 7th like he's done before.

 

[Berniece]

I don't think it's declining. I think a strong chase versus a solo rider is a lot less difficult than many thought it was. It's never been a big solo race the way Liege can be when 1 rider just dominates the rest.

That's true, but I'm not so sure he will be able to go solo. If everything goes normally for Evenepoel, he should be able to follow. In AGR he first had to come back for 30-35km after his crash, and when Alaphilippe went he was still behind and not well positioned.

I expect a sprint between them.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Amstel had a strong headwind. Everything was racing against Pogacar. Remco having a teammate so strong, wind, Skjelmose doing a stupid attack alone but then was very important to Remco. However, Remco will not crash again (I hope so) so we will have a big fight ahead of us.

 

[topcat]

Or is it the first Monument? Since it's the oldest. The Old Lady.

4th in the calendar year. 1st as in oldest, yes. In any case it's a monument, the last time I checked, despite some revisionist theory.

 

[Red Rick]

That's true, but I'm not so sure he will be able to go solo. If everything goes normally for Evenepoel, he should be able to follow. In AGR he first had to come back for 30-35km after his crash, and when Alaphilippe went he was still behind and not well positioned.

I expect a sprint between them.

There's nothing in their history between them to me that suggests that Evenepoel can follow if Pogacar attacks the steep slopes of La Redoute or RaF. He may limit the damage and then slowly grind it back but I don't see him following the move itself.

 

[topcat]

How often do you hear the following on the forum?
I don't know

I'll have a crack off it: I don't know who is going to win Liege.

 

[tobydawq]

How often do you hear the following on the forum?
I don't know

I don't know.

 

[rghysens]

You think Pogacar will win easily? It's still 35km's after top of La Redoute. That's a long solo when your form is declining. Unless it isn't declining of course

From roche aux faucons it´s 15km or so.

 

[Berniece]

From roche aux faucons it´s 15km or so.

UAE doesn’t have the strength to wait so long

 

[houtdffan]

There's nothing in their history between them to me that suggests that Evenepoel can follow if Pogacar attacks the steep slopes of La Redoute or RaF. He may limit the damage and then slowly grind it back but I don't see him following the move itself.

however, Remco has went solo on Redoutte in his 2 wins

The climb suits Remco as well

 

[HashRouge]

I'm not very good at comparing parcours - can anyone talk me through how Liege compares to races like Amstel, or last year's world championships?

 

[Red Rick]

I'm not very good at comparing parcours - can anyone talk me through how Liege compares to races like Amstel, or last year's world championships?

Fewer but longer and steeper hills than Amstel, and less flat in the finale. Most of the bergs in Amstel wouldn't even be categorized in Liege.

WC had basically 1 climb in the circuit that had the length of a Liege climb, but it wasn't that steep and for the rest it had a bunch of short punches more like Amstel, so it was pretty much inbetween AGR and LBL

 

[HashRouge]

Fewer but longer and steeper hills than Amstel, and less flat in the finale. Most of the bergs in Amstel wouldn't even be categorized in Liege.

WC had basically 1 climb in the circuit that had the length of a Liege climb, but it wasn't that steep and for the rest it had a bunch of short punches more like Amstel, so it was pretty much inbetween AGR and LBL

Thank you! Really useful breakdown!

 

[Filippo_3467]

UAE doesn’t have the strength to wait so long

that could be a big factor if Narvaez isn't feeling good after the crash a lot depends on McNulty probably. Could be a bit harder than Amstel to control the longer climbs and the flat afterwards with Sivakov and Großschartner.

Remco of course has a shot but Pogi is still the big favourite. Was the strongest on the climbs in Amstel and the longer climbs now should be more suitable for him. For Remco it would be probably best do start a solo after a climb like on Redoute a few years ago and hope that Pogacar is napping.

Not quite sure who could be the third guy to the party this time after Pedersen in Ronde/Roubaix, Blackmore in Brabantse and Skjelmose at Amstel. Probably someone you never thought of in such a race like one-day Mas coming back from the death.

With how the race was raced in the last years it's very hard to get a headstart into La redoute if you are a b-tier favourite. Wanne to Rosier would be the zone for that then other then a GvA led group before covid I don't know if anyone got a good move going there. Without crashes or a surprise showing of some crosswinds in this area there will be enough strong domestiques left to close the race down. The plan for UAE and Quick-Step seems pretty straight forward, just let nothing get away and then attack Redoute.