Liège - Bastogne - Liège 2025, 27th April

[scribers]

Let's go!

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[Lequack]

Oscar Onley will win this.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

How often do you hear the following on the forum?
I don't know

I don't know who will win, but if Pog does, I expect something like this will happen, based on the bazillion data points from commentary in prior races.

Pog attacks, goes solo. Board: "Another horrible race. Everyone knew this would happen."
Chasers start closing the gap. Board: "Race is back on, finally some hope."
Pog widens the gap. Board: "NM, this is crap. I should go <insert pointless task here>."
Pog crashes. Board: "He has terrible handling. Not like Merckx who was much better."
Pog gets up, solos to win. Board: "Never watching cycling again, this sport is dead."

Repeat ad infinitum.

 

[Sciatic]

From roche aux faucons it´s 15km or so.

Yeah, but that doesn't count as a "long solo" by Pogacar standards

 

[Sciatic]

that could be a big factor if Narvaez isn't feeling good after the crash a lot depends on McNulty probably. Could be a bit harder than Amstel to control the longer climbs and the flat afterwards with Sivakov and Großschartner.

Remco of course has a shot but Pogi is still the big favourite. Was the strongest on the climbs in Amstel and the longer climbs now should be more suitable for him. For Remco it would be probably best do start a solo after a climb like on Redoute a few years ago and hope that Pogacar is napping.

Remco took 10 secs out of Pogacar's lead on the penultimate Cauberg climb on Sunday, but I think we'd all assume that was when Pog was already gassed.

 

[Potomac]

what's the over under in km on how far out the winning move is made

 

[Gigs_98]

I think Pogacar will be stronger on the climbs but I also think Remco again has a chance if Pogacar attacks too early. Remco is the better TTer. That's not a hot take. If Pogi attacks on La Redoute I think it's again a very plausible outcome that Remco drops initially but can claw his way back before RaF. If that happens Pogacar might struggle to drop Remco for a second time with fatigue building in his legs. Similarly I don't think it's a great situation for Pogacar to ride in a two men group with Remco from La Redoute onwards, since Remco cooks people on his wheel on rolling terrain.

I think Pogacar should ride this conservatively and make one all out attack on RaF. If Remco can't follow he probably doesn't have enough time to close any gap. If Remco can follow you have a two men sprint but there arent many flat kms left that you spend in Remcos nonexisting slipstream. The problem with this tactic is that Remco will very likely attack on La Redoute and once that happens waiting for RaF is just no longer an option. So while I think the rider I expect to be strongest on the climbs should still be the favorite, I think Remco makes this race way harder to win for Pogacar.

 

[Brullnux]

Pogacar and Remco recreate Nibali/Roglic in 2019, Healy wins.

 

[LookProGoSlow]

Poll

 

[RedheadDane]

Pogacar and Remco recreate Nibali/Roglic in 2019, Healy wins.

But who will follow in the amazing fashion footsteps of Michael Woods?

 

[Unchained]

I don't know who will win, but if Pog does, I expect something like this will happen, based on the bazillion data points from commentary in prior races.

Pog attacks, goes solo. Board: "Another horrible race. Everyone knew this would happen."
Chasers start closing the gap. Board: "Race is back on, finally some hope."
Pog widens the gap. Board: "NM, this is crap. I should go <insert pointless task here>."
Pog crashes. Board: "He has terrible handling. Not like Merckx who was much better."
Pog gets up, solos to win. Board: "Never watching cycling again, this sport is dead."

Repeat ad infinitum.

Recent news from Bernard Hinault has some similar views!! And he says haters are causing damage, but really goes after French complaining

 

[rghysens]

Yeah, but that doesn't count as a "long solo" by Pogacar standards

No, but that wasn´t my point. If Pog can go on RàF and gets a small gap, there´s only a descent and short flat. So little chance to get caught.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I don't know if anyone else has mentioned this, but it seems ridiculous that these guys only have to work like two days a week at most during classics season. And even then it's not a full eight-hour day, smh.

 

[E_F_]

I don't know if anyone else has mentioned this, but it seems ridiculous that these guys only have to work like two days a week at most during classics season. And even then it's not a full eight-hour day, smh.

They did have to work on easter sunday, though...

 

[Gigs_98]

Just watched some videos of old editions and it's crazy how different this race was during the Ans days. The break casually 5 minutes ahead of the peloton as they started to climb La Redoute in 2017. Those guys weren't even pretending to plan an attack before the final kilometer. Also, even though I was a huge fan at the time I must say, the Schleck brothers really shared a single brain cell.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Just watched some videos of old editions and it's crazy how different this race was during the Ans days. The break casually 5 minutes ahead of the peloton as they started to climb La Redoute in 2017. Those guys weren't even pretending to plan an attack before the final kilometer. Also, even though I was a huge fan at the time I must say, the Schleck brothers really shared a single brain cell.

I rewatched Paris-Roubaix 2004. Completely different sort of race from what we have seen the last years. Soft pedaling between some of the harder sectors, big group of riders all the way until Mons en Pevele. Everybody waiting for Carrefour de l’Arbre. Average speed 38 kph versus the +45 kph of today’s races. The constant attacking and high average speed just wears everyone down and makes for the long range attacks. Totally different sort of racing.

 

[Berniece]

Poll

What would you like polled?

 

[LookProGoSlow]

What would you like polled?

Who will win LBL 2025! Thx in advance🙏🏻

 

[Netserk]

Poll

In a different thread, please.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Just watched some videos of old editions and it's crazy how different this race was during the Ans days. The break casually 5 minutes ahead of the peloton as they started to climb La Redoute in 2017. Those guys weren't even pretending to plan an attack before the final kilometer. Also, even though I was a huge fan at the time I must say, the Schleck brothers really shared a single brain cell.

Also reminds you of just how terrible some of those wild card teams that made up the breakaways in the 2010s were. No way you could give one of the breakaways these days that much leeway.

 

[tobydawq]

Also reminds you of just how terrible some of those wild card teams that made up the breakaways in the 2010s were. No way you could give one of the breakaways these days that much leeway.

Five minutes before Redoute should be easily closable.

 

[Red Rick]

Five minutes before Redoute should be easily closable.

It is. Previous 2 years 5 minutes down is like 30th, but that's also mostly WT riders that didn't spend all day in a breakaway.

If anything, gaps were way smaller in the 2010s, especially far down the results list.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

It is. Previous 2 years 5 minutes down is like 30th, but that's also mostly WT riders that didn't spend all day in a breakaway.

If anything, gaps were way smaller in the 2010s, especially far down the results list.

If I‘m riding for 30th place, my motivation is also zero which is less than my motivation while leading the race at 35 k to go. Mainly my low opinion of those breakaways comes from the 2017 last break survivor being Stephane Rossetto caught at 10 k to go after passing his teammate Anthony Perez on Roche-aux-Faucons

 

[Andre]

Let's not forget Pogi got gassed in Amstel from trying to prevent Remco...and, ok, Skjelmose from catching him. Meaning Remco can hurt you even if he's behind you. My prediction: Pogi will probably attack at some point, but if Remco is watchful and near him then he will easily follow, along with one or two other riders. On the other hand Remco might be the one who attacks first and Pogi will follow. If the latter of the two occurs, then I think Remco will eventually drop Pogi on the run in (and this will cause heads to roll on the forum). Remco Wins!!! Sounds good...yes?

 

[SafeBet]

I think Pogacar will be stronger on the climbs but I also think Remco again has a chance if Pogacar attacks too early. Remco is the better TTer. That's not a hot take. If Pogi attacks on La Redoute I think it's again a very plausible outcome that Remco drops initially but can claw his way back before RaF.

I don't think it's plausible if Pogacar is in top shape.
Pogacar has the best durability in the peloton and has proven he can gain time on better TTers even on flat or rolling terrain at the end of Monuments or very hard stages / races. In last year's Lombardia he destroyed Evenepoel in the 40 kms after Sormano.

All of these scenarios where Evenepoel has a chance against Pogacar depend on:
- Pogacar's shape declining and /or
- Evenepoel having improved compared to last year