Contador or Cadel all the way. Vino works for ContadorLBL. Schlecks 1 and Schleck 2 out of the running. Andys training for Cali.
It's going to be tough for Contador to win this, as I think Astana will have to push for a fast pace a bit before La Redoute in order to tire some legs so that Contador can gain a distinct advantage on the climb. After that, the question is if Contador has the legs to go it alone for the 30 plus kms to the finish?
It is not the only scenario where Contador could win of course, but the last thing I think Contador would want is to be in a small breakaway group that contained people who could potentially out sprint him such as Gilbert, Valverde, or Rodriguez.
Still, I look forward to this edition of LBL as the quality of the field will hopefully make it both an exciting and memorable race. Hopefully.
It is not the only scenario where Contador could win of course, but the last thing I think Contador would want is to be in a small breakaway group that contained people who could potentially out sprint him such as Gilbert, Valverde, or Rodriguez.
Still, I look forward to this edition of LBL as the quality of the field will hopefully make it both an exciting and memorable race. Hopefully.
Think Cunego is a good shout, good form but slightly under the radar
Katushya will have a good chance with any one of there main 3 especially rodrguez
course not as selective as muur de huy so count out contador and anton
schlecks not on form, same with gesink, valverde and luis leon sanchez
evans gilbert will be marked and if a GC style climer really attacks on a climb to make it very selective then keeps pace on i cant see gilbert following even on an easier course than fleche wallone
Katushya will have a good chance with any one of there main 3 especially rodrguez
course not as selective as muur de huy so count out contador and anton
schlecks not on form, same with gesink, valverde and luis leon sanchez
evans gilbert will be marked and if a GC style climer really attacks on a climb to make it very selective then keeps pace on i cant see gilbert following even on an easier course than fleche wallone
- Mar 10, 2009
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Just for the record, I'm very well aware that Gilbert will not go unmarked on Sunday. I just started rambling about halfway thorugh that post... But one can hope, right?
But even then he has a good chance. He has been doing well the last couple of weeks, and the course does suit him. And his sprint is better then some others (a Schleck for example), so the opportunity is certainly there for him.
I agree that Cunego is a good call. He has had good showings in the AGR and Flèche, and should be right up there in Liège as well...
I'm having trouble deciding what to expect of the Schlecks. They do not appear to be fantastic, but somehow I can't write them of completely either...
But even then he has a good chance. He has been doing well the last couple of weeks, and the course does suit him. And his sprint is better then some others (a Schleck for example), so the opportunity is certainly there for him.
I agree that Cunego is a good call. He has had good showings in the AGR and Flèche, and should be right up there in Liège as well...
I'm having trouble deciding what to expect of the Schlecks. They do not appear to be fantastic, but somehow I can't write them of completely either...
- Oct 16, 2009
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I think that if AC wants to win he need to do like Andy last year.. I would love to see AC wining this one... but it's not probably...
I put my money on Gilbert/Katusha boys
I put my money on Gilbert/Katusha boys
You guys should put your tips to good use, and win swag...
Join the Velominati Super Prestige tipping comp, win an 'Obey The Rules' sticker each round, and a sweet shop apron for the overall at the end of the season.
Put your money where your mouth is!
http://www.velominati.com/blog/velo...lominati-super-prestige-liege–bastogne–liege/
Join the Velominati Super Prestige tipping comp, win an 'Obey The Rules' sticker each round, and a sweet shop apron for the overall at the end of the season.
Put your money where your mouth is!
http://www.velominati.com/blog/velo...lominati-super-prestige-liege–bastogne–liege/
Cosette said:
I think they are both good bets for a top 5/8 but that someone else will be there at the end to take the win. Gilbert stands the best of those two IMO, a podium looks likely but i cant help thinking that someone else will take the win - i think that Cunego is now more of a 5th place person when it comes to the top one-dayers and that he hasnt got the recovery for the GC in the grand tours - i am frequently wrong though...
Cosette said:
Dont seem to be as strong as last year. They still seem competitive but just one of a number. Cant wait for it myself
- Mar 17, 2009
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Frosty said:
I figure that's their best strategy. Astana should work hard to put someone in the break. They do not want to find themselves at the head of the peloton at any point Sunday.
Once the break is chased down, launch Vino.... If he's got the strength, he solos to victory. If it's brought back, send AC.
But it will depend on if they are able to conserve their energy (i.e., out of the wind) AND how AC's allergies go on Sunday. Supposed to be warm with some wind--which is not a good look for him.
as a good austrian patriot, I will have to pick Evans (by elimination- I have this figured out completely).
And to specify, since he cannot rely on team help, st Nicolas is the place where he has to do it. Gilbert will launch him and go under in the process.
Valverde second, Schleckfather third.
And to specify, since he cannot rely on team help, st Nicolas is the place where he has to do it. Gilbert will launch him and go under in the process.
Valverde second, Schleckfather third.
- Jun 16, 2009
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Publicus said:
I think astana has one of the best ardennes classics teams. i think they should work in numbers and send some dangerous people up the road.
Personally I would really want to see Evans win on Anzac Day but i think he may find it hard because of two reasons.
1. Liege is a much more tataical race than flecheand you need at least two guys on your team who can win so you can work in numbers.
2. He will be heavily marked due to fleche because of his win there.
Not saying he can't, but it will be very hard. Thinking astana will take this one.
- Jun 16, 2009
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blaxland said:
True! But gerrans won't be able to out sprint someone like valverde or be able to ride away on a cllimb like an andy schleck.
A beautifully made video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJ76GLwBvPY
- Mar 17, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
I'm learning that winning a classic is as much about equal parts luck, tactics and legs. They could win, but a lot of things have to break in their favor and then they have to hope that either AC or Vino has the legs. And I shouldn't forget Maxim--though frankly I think he needs a break
from racing (he's been racing constantly since February).
I like Liquigas, Katusha and Saxo Bank on Sunday. Not sold on Caisse or Astana at present.
- Oct 16, 2009
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Publicus said:
still can not believe that AC has lost wallonne, is hard to see that our superman is human too... I hope that he can do something in L-B-L... will be a great race!
- Jan 30, 2010
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1) Gilbert
2) Rodriguez
3) Vino
4) Evans
5) Cunego
6) Valverde
7) A Schleck
8) F Schleck
9) Hesjedal
10) Contador
Final group left standing, with Gilbert to take the final uphill sprint. I can't go past him, especially after he keeps his promises so often now. Great one-day racer and so versatile.
The GT climber types will have to attack on a climb far out if they want to win, but if it's a disorganised group at the end, Gilbert can take it.
2) Rodriguez
3) Vino
4) Evans
5) Cunego
6) Valverde
7) A Schleck
8) F Schleck
9) Hesjedal
10) Contador
Final group left standing, with Gilbert to take the final uphill sprint. I can't go past him, especially after he keeps his promises so often now. Great one-day racer and so versatile.
The GT climber types will have to attack on a climb far out if they want to win, but if it's a disorganised group at the end, Gilbert can take it.
Gilbert or Evans. Those two seem a level above (not just because they won amste/fleche) this year. Maybe JROD as well.
Im a big Contador fan but 260km, a poor sprint in comparison to other favorites, wind sun and a pollen allergy indicate for me that hes looking for a top 5 at best, hes a rider who is by far the most explosive and best on medium mountain to relatively long ones but fuel tank is where he will suffer so despite only short climes in comparison to tdf i feel he just wont have his characteristic kick to win solo on st nicholas or la redoute.
I would be delighted if he proves me wrong!
I would be delighted if he proves me wrong!
10 pages and yet still no love for the leakygas in this thread? They do have Pelizotti, Nibali, and Kreuziger entered in La Doyenne, though it may be that the finish isn't really suited to any of them if the race finishes in a smallish bunch sprint. Kreuziger did finish 5th at Amstel a week ago, so his form is good right now and Pelizotti and Nibali have finished top 15 before.
Still, I think it would take a 'Horneresque' alignment of constellations for either Kreuziger or Nibali to finish first. Regardless, either one should finish in the top 10.
Bbox has Fédrigo, Voeckler, and Gautier (2008 U23 Worlds Road Race Champion) entered, though the 258 kms may be too long for a breakaway specialist such as Fédrigo or Voeckler. Both have had decent form this Spring, though neither have done much of anything at L-B-L. Gautier is highly regarded by both Fédrigo and Voeckler, though at just 22 he may be too inexperienced to know when would be the right time to attack (he did earn his first pro victory a few weeks ago at the Route Adélie). It would be nice if a Bbox rider sneaks into the top 10.
Still, I think it would take a 'Horneresque' alignment of constellations for either Kreuziger or Nibali to finish first. Regardless, either one should finish in the top 10.
Bbox has Fédrigo, Voeckler, and Gautier (2008 U23 Worlds Road Race Champion) entered, though the 258 kms may be too long for a breakaway specialist such as Fédrigo or Voeckler. Both have had decent form this Spring, though neither have done much of anything at L-B-L. Gautier is highly regarded by both Fédrigo and Voeckler, though at just 22 he may be too inexperienced to know when would be the right time to attack (he did earn his first pro victory a few weeks ago at the Route Adélie). It would be nice if a Bbox rider sneaks into the top 10.
- Jan 11, 2010
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- Sep 25, 2009
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as we agreed before, astana may have a two-leader plan for this sunday. vino confirmed as much in his post stage 4 comments. said, he was even considering not starting stage 4 given the liege plans and the traveling difficulties. i think indirectly berto said something similar about the astana team tactics this sunday.Publicus said:
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