Lo Squalo Dello Stretto discussion thread

[Eshnar]

I don't mean he can't handle the distance, I mean that when he has to go full gas for a long period of time he falters. Don't you think it's strange that when he's so clearly the strongest on the Sormano or the Roche aux Faucons, he seems to come to a near-standstill after 20 k?

I think that a rider that goes full gas for a long period of time and he feels good until the very end just doesn't exist. He faltered with respect to an organised group (in Lombardy) and a guy attacking 10 kms later than him (yesterday)

I can't even think of which attack you mean... the one on the descent?

yes.

Ah, so Juanjo Cobo is now a Tour favourite?

I'm not saying this, by any means. Nibali is a contender, not a favourite. I was just pointing out that the guy actually did something MORE than a 7th place at the Tour. If you're going to say that a 7th place at tdf is not enormously less than 1 Vuelta and 2 Giro podiums, then the discussion cannot go further.

 

[Parrulo]

Exactly, specifically Wiggins has certainly improved since 2009 enormously and so we truly dont know his true limit in the mountains. It wont be the same as Schlecks but so far the indication from his previous races suggest they will be reasonably high, will it be enough for him to do better than Nibali considering he is a better Time triallist, we dont know but it is certainly a possibility, yet certainly not a certainty.

that argument would only make sense if nibali hadn't also improved since the 09 tour.

but i guess a nearly 29 year old rider improved much more then a 24 year old one for the past 3 years

 

[El Pistolero]

I think that a rider that goes full gas for a long period of time and he feels good until the very end just doesn't exist. He faltered with respect to an organised group (in Lombardy) and a guy attacking 10 kms later than him (yesterday)

yes.

I'm not saying this, by any means. Nibali is a contender, not a favourite. I was just pointing out that the guy actually did something MORE than a 7th place at the Tour. If you're going to say that a 7th place at tdf is not enormously less than 1 Vuelta and 2 Giro podiums, then the discussion cannot go further.

This reminds me of a discussion I had with theyoungest after I said Gesink couldn't have won the Tour so far in his career and he went berserk on me.

 

[The Hitch]

nibali has raced the toughest mountain stages for the past 2 years and always with good results, the last time wiggins rode a proper mountain stage the result wasn't that good either (angliru 2011)

Wasnt that the last time Nibal did a proper mountain stage too

 

[The Hitch]

I'm not saying this, by any means. Nibali is a contender, not a favourite. I was just pointing out that the guy actually did something MORE than a 7th place at the Tour. If you're going to say that a 7th place at tdf is not enormously less than 1 Vuelta and 2 Giro podiums, then the discussion cannot go further.

Youngest has said in the past that he feels 1st at the Giro is the equivalent of 5th at the tour.

So under his logic, Nibali would have finished the last 2 tours, ummm 15th

 

[The Hitch]

Hang on. Why is there a nibali tour debate?

Did he confirm hes doing it then?

 

[hatcher]

you guys are underestimating the mountains of this year's tour a bit. yes it isn't the hardest tour ever but the mountain stages are actually not badly designed to make for good racing with long range attacks like on that stage of the 09 i posted where frank attacked first with about 40k to go.

To be honest I think it's more a case of you underestimating Wiggins in the mountains. I get the impression you have him going out the back with Tony Martin as soon as the road goes uphill.

There really is no point discussing this as there is always an excuse for why Wiggins beats good riders, yet Wiggins is never given the same benefits.

The 2009 stage you referenced with Wiggins losing 50 seconds to Nibali, Wiggins also handily beat Evans and Menchov, as he did consistently. Wiggins also routinely beat Nibali in the 2011 Vuelta on every major climb. Outclimbing Evans in the Dauphine, Valverde/Cungego in Paris-Nice, beating Menchov in Vuelta. None of those count as positives for Wiggins because there's an excuse attached to every one.

edit: For example, Wiggins 2009 performance never gets the benefit of it not only being his first GC ride, but also of having done the Giro in the same year. He also doesn't get the benefit of the doubt over his collarbone/no racing in the Vuelta.

 

[Eshnar]

Hang on. Why is there a nibali tour debate?

Did he confirm hes doing it then?

he did. (10 c)

 

[Libertine Seguros]

mierenneuker.

Classy, Pistolet, classy.

 

[Parrulo]

To be honest I think it's more a case of you underestimating Wiggins in the mountains. I get the impression you have him going out the back with Tony Martin as soon as the road goes uphill.

There really is no point discussing this as there is always an excuse for why Wiggins beats good riders, yet Wiggins is never given the same benefits.

The 2009 stage you referenced with Wiggins losing 50 seconds to Nibali, Wiggins also handily beat Evans and Menchov, as he did consistently. Wiggins also routinely beat Nibali in the 2011 Vuelta on every major climb. Outclimbing Evans in the Dauphine, Valverde/Cungego in Paris-Nice, beating Menchov in Vuelta. None of those count as positives for Wiggins because there's an excuse attached to every one.

i never said he will be dropped like tony martin, in fact i have said many times that wiggins is great on those flat stages ending with a climb (verbier, arcalis, mont ventoux and pretty much every vuelta stage except the angliru) where he suffers is on mountain stages with more then 1 mountain as he simply can't itt himself mountain after mountain. and that is why i think he can't win the tour even with this many itt's, because the mountain stages even tho they are scarce are well designed (from what i remember) this year.

evans was in bad shape in 09 and menchov had just won the giro so using them as a measuring point is rather silly. Nibali himself said he completely ruined his vuelta prep last year by overestimating the effects the giro would have in him and reaching the vuelta both under trained and under raced and nibali isn't the kind of guy to make up lame excuses so i will take up his word.

and yes he was super strong at the dauphine but on the toughest stage he was very close to cracking, if that was the tour and not a prep race, guys like andy, evans, samu and nibali would have explored that weakness and crack him. Besides i think he is better at 1 week races then GT's because recuperation doesn't play such a big role.

 

[Parrulo]

edit: For example, Wiggins 2009 performance never gets the benefit of it not only being his first GC ride, but also of having done the Giro in the same year. He also doesn't get the benefit of the doubt over his collarbone/no racing in the Vuelta.

71 Wiggins Bradley Gbr Grm 88:23:20 2:20:09

ya he pushed himself so hard during that giro, taking himself to the limit on every mountain stage fighting for pink and all . . . .

 

[The Hitch]

71 Wiggins Bradley Gbr Grm 88:23:20 2:20:09

ya he pushed himself so hard during that giro, taking himself to the limit on every mountain stage fighting for pink and all . . . .

You mean taking himself to the time limit on every mountain stage

 

[El Pistolero]

Armstrong did better in the Giro and the Tour that year. So you can't really use the Giro excuse I'm afraid. Contador could've done the double right there and then!

The Giro had an "easy" route.

 

[The Hitch]

Ill post it like this.

Wiggins has a better chance of winning the Tour.

Now before posters attack me (as some people had the same problem with understanding such a sentence over the weekend) that does NOT mean Wiggins will finish ahead of Nibali.

Its very possible, perhaps even probable that Nibali will finish ahead of Wiggins.

But Nibalis chances of winning the Tour are very small becuase riders like Evans Menchov Sanchez, are better in tts and equal in climbs.

So if the climbs are raced hard Nibali has every chance of podiuming, he is just very unlikely to win.

Wiggins meanwhile has a better chance of winning becuase if the course is raced poorly, if the tts do play the deciding role then he is the best tter from all that have a chance.

 

[hatcher]

i never said he will be dropped like tony martin, in fact i have said many times that wiggins is great on those flat stages ending with a climb (verbier, arcalis, mont ventoux and pretty much every vuelta stage except the angliru) where he suffers is on mountain stages with more then 1 mountain as he simply can't itt himself mountain after mountain. and that is why i think he can't win the tour even with this many itt's, because the mountain stages even tho they are scarce are well designed (from what i remember) this year.

evans was in bad shape in 09 and menchov had just won the giro so using them as a measuring point is rather silly. Nibali himself said he completely ruined his vuelta prep last year by overestimating the effects the giro would have in him and reaching the vuelta both under trained and under raced and nibali isn't the kind of guy to make up lame excuses so i will take up his word.

and yes he was super strong at the dauphine but on the toughest stage he was very close to cracking, if that was the tour and not a prep race, guys like andy, evans, samu and nibali would have explored that weakness and crack him. Besides i think he is better at 1 week races then GT's because recuperation doesn't play such a big role.

We haven't seen him on multi-mountain stages since 2009. The closest we've had was the Alto del Corral just before the Angliru in the Vuelta; I reckon Wiggins handled that pretty well, beating the likes of Anton, Rodriguez, Nibali.

I'm well aware many of the excuses are valid, but equally valid are the excuses for Wiggins that never seem to get mentioned. That was my point.

As for the Dauphine, again Wiggins beat both Evans (and Sanchez fwiw) in that race (and on that stage), yet Evans somehow gets credit because Wiggins apparently almost cracked.

The assumption seems to be Wiggins is always at 100%, and others just aren't, or else they would have beaten him.

 

[hatcher]

71 Wiggins Bradley Gbr Grm 88:23:20 2:20:09

ya he pushed himself so hard during that giro, taking himself to the limit on every mountain stage fighting for pink and all . . . .

Armstrong did better in the Giro and the Tour that year. So you can't really use the Giro excuse I'm afraid. Contador could've done the double right there and then!

The Giro had an "easy" route.

A woefully inexperienced GT rider (let alone GC rider) wouldn't be affected simply by riding the Giro and then the Tour? Yeah I think he would.

Anyway, no more Wiggins talk from me. Nibali thread.

 

[Froome19]

that argument would only make sense if nibali hadn't also improved since the 09 tour.

but i guess a nearly 29 year old rider improved much more then a 24 year old one for the past 3 years

Exactly, specifically Wiggins has certainly improved since 2009 enormously and so we truly dont know his true limit in the mountains. It wont be the same as Schlecks but so far the indication from his previous races suggest they will be reasonably high, will it be enough for him to do better than Nibali considering he is a better Time triallist, we dont know but it is certainly a possibility, yet certainly not a certainty.

Of course Nibali has improved just imo Wiggins has improved more as I stated previously.

That doesnt seem wishful when you take into account the fact that he was never truly focusing on riding mountains before the 2009 tour but rather had a greater focus on the track and TT so therefore once he has focused on climbing he is logically going to improve more than someone who was already working on their climbing.
Also his perfomances throughout the past year suggest a huge improvement because he wasnt putting in those perfomances before 2009 so he evidently an improved rider is he a more improved rider than Nibali? Probably as his focus on the road and climbing in particular has led to a great improvement whilst Nibbles's improvement has been more steady. Will it be enough? Dunno..

 

[hfer07]

Ill post it like this.

Wiggins has a better chance of winning the Tour.

Now before posters attack me (as some people had the same problem with understanding such a sentence over the weekend) that does NOT mean Wiggins will finish ahead of Nibali.

Its very possible, perhaps even probable that Nibali will finish ahead of Wiggins.

But Nibalis chances of winning the Tour are very small becuase riders like Evans Menchov Sanchez, are better in tts and equal in climbs.

So if the climbs are raced hard Nibali has every chance of podiuming, he is just very unlikely to win.

Wiggins meanwhile has a better chance of winning becuase if the course is raced poorly, if the tts do play the deciding role then he is the best tter from all that have a chance.

you're correct- but then we have the "descends"..... Is Wiggo equal to Nibbs, Evans & Sanchez in that discipline? Vincenzo has this canny instinct to attack uphill & downhill, where he can make up any loses in the ITT-the same goes to Evans & Sanchez as well- does it apply to Wiggo? don't think so--which puts him exactly in the same position as Cadel was in 07 & 08 when he put his chances to win the Tour entirely on ITT-and we know what happened....

 

[Parrulo]

Ill post it like this.

Wiggins has a better chance of winning the Tour.

Now before posters attack me (as some people had the same problem with understanding such a sentence over the weekend) that does NOT mean Wiggins will finish ahead of Nibali.

Its very possible, perhaps even probable that Nibali will finish ahead of Wiggins.

But Nibalis chances of winning the Tour are very small becuase riders like Evans Menchov Sanchez, are better in tts and equal in climbs.

So if the climbs are raced hard Nibali has every chance of podiuming, he is just very unlikely to win.

Wiggins meanwhile has a better chance of winning becuase if the course is raced poorly, if the tts do play the deciding role then he is the best tter from all that have a chance.

that's the thing, i don't think the mountains will be raced poorly this year unless the first week is another crash fest and all the aggressive riders crash out.

i have no trouble at all seeing evans, samu, the pope and andy ahead of Nibali on the final GC, i just don't see wiggins being there unless something really weird happens.

 

[cineteq]

i have no trouble at all seeing evans, samu, the pope and andy ahead of Nibali on the final GC, i just don't see wiggins being there unless something really weird happens.

I concurred in part, I don't see Wiggins, any Schleck or Menchov at the top on the final GC.

- Wiggins will crack or crash as he did in the Tour/Vuelta
- Menchov will be his own self, oblivious to his chances
- A. or F. Schleck have no chance from day one
- Sanchez can do well, if he's consistant enough

Either Nibali or Evans will win the Tour. Unless Liquigas decide to ride Le Squalo in Il Giro

 

[airstream]

Either Nibali or Evans will win the Tour. Unless Liquigas decide to ride Le Squalo in Il Giro

Nibali for the Tour win? At what expense will he do that? Wow, you had me completely at it.

 

[El Pistolero]

He's better than Andy.

 

[airstream]

He's better than Andy.

I've already realized than even you would ride the Tour better than Andy.

 

[cineteq]

Nibali for the Tour win? At what expense will he do that? Wow, you had me completely at it.

By taking at least 4 min. on all favorites on downhill stages

ps: can andy downhill, and what about if it's wet?

 

[airstream]

By taking at least 4 min. on all favorites on downhill stages

ps: can andy downhill, and what about if it's wet?

No, but Vincenzo needs to drop him uphill in order to attack on a descent which is unreal. )