Lo Squalo Dello Stretto discussion thread

[Dekker_Tifosi]

First I joked to myself, damn if Nibali wins this then no way the Gesink vs Nibali debate can be won anymore, but then I really hoped Nibali would make it to the line first. Sucks about his possible hunger knock, he looked so strong and all of a sudden he was empty..

Great great ride, people should ride like this more often

the gesink vs nibali debate can be stopped anyway. Gesink has had too much bad luck to ever make it to that level

 

[maltiv]

once again people keep underestimating him. it's like this for every race, he never is a top contender and at best can top 10 but then ends up amongst the best riders and fighting for the win.

he is a much better GT rider then wiggins who many people say is a contender for the tour. baring bad luck he will most likely be on the podium in paris

Nibali was 7th in 2009 and has improved incredibly much since then, yet a lot of people seemingly thinks all he can do this year is a top 10

I'm slightly worried about his form though, since he's been on top pretty much all season. Hopefully he won't be too tired when TDF comes around. As long as he has decent form I'm certain he'll be in the top 5.

 

[Havetts]

the gesink vs nibali debate can be stopped anyway. Gesink has had too much bad luck to ever make it to that level

Thats very negative of you, Ruben. Want to talk about it ?

 

[Parrulo]

Nibali was 7th in 2009 and has improved incredibly much since then, yet a lot of people seemingly thinks all he can do this year is a top 10

I'm slightly worried about his form though, since he's been on top pretty much all season. Hopefully he won't be too tired when TDF comes around. As long as he has decent form I'm certain he'll be in the top 5.

i think just because he hasn't raced the tour since then people tend to dismiss his performances in the giro and vuelta which include 2 podiums and a win just because it isn't the tour.

yet they have no problems saying wiggins is a favorite for the tour based on a vuelta third place and a PN win

about his form i wouldn't be worried to be honest, he raced like this last year as well and was good at the giro, with some rest now until the dauphine he will be looking great at the tour. i am 100% sure he can podium and fight for the win.

 

[hatcher]

And a course with 96k of time trialing. That's why people say Wiggins is a favourite.

 

[Parrulo]

And a course with 96k of time trialing. That's why people say Wiggins is a favourite.

even if he gains 3 minutes on the nibali on the itt's he will lose that on the mountains. actually the 2 downhill finishes stages will probably be enough to cut that kind of losses. and i doubt nibali will lose so much time anyway.

and this is not only to nibali, samu, evans, the pope, gesink if he fully recovers are all guys that can more then regain the time lost on the itt to wiggins.

 

[Afrank]

Watching Liege now on tv and even though I know the results, the way Nibali is riding, I find myself cheering him on. He put in an incredible ride today.

 

[SafeBet]

And a course with 96k of time trialing. That's why people say Wiggins is a favourite.

Last year Wiggins gained a minute on Nibali in a 50km ITT during the Vuelta.
I think we all agree that was Wiggins best form of his whole career.
And the worst we've seen Nibali in a long time.

 

[will10]

Last year Wiggins gained a minute on Nibali in a 50km ITT during the Vuelta.
I think we all agree that was Wiggins best form of his whole career.
And the worst we've seen Nibali in a long time.

That was one of the worst ITTs Wiggins has ridden in the last 2 years. Seriously, look at his results. He completely screwed up and lost a massive amount of time to Martin et al in the final 10km of that ITT.

 

[maltiv]

And a course with 96k of time trialing. That's why people say Wiggins is a favourite.

Nibali will put a lot of time on Wiggins on the hills and descents alone. Even if Nibali doesn't put a lot of time on him in the mountains he still has a chance.

Evans will be a lot harder to beat however, if he's in top shape, as he doesn't have such obvious weaknesses as Wiggins does.

 

[theyoungest]

Nibali will put a lot of time on Wiggins on the hills and descents alone. Even if Nibali doesn't put a lot of time on him in the mountains he still has a chance.

Evans will be a lot harder to beat however, if he's in top shape, as he doesn't have such obvious weaknesses as Wiggins does.

What does Liege have to do with the Tour? None of the Tour contenders played any role whatsoever.

Nibali's weakness is really long efforts, i.e. long climbs and long time trials. And long attacks as well apparently, as evidenced in Liege and Lombardy. Nothing he's done since his last Tour suggests that he's really improved that much in that respect to fight for the podium.

 

[Eshnar]

What does Liege have to do with the Tour? None of the Tour contenders played any role whatsoever.

Nibali's weakness is really long efforts

Nibali is so weak in long efforts... In fact he's always with the best in all the classics longer than 200 kms, while in FW (198 kms) he just hadn't the kick to compete with the best. The stamina is really his main asset. He's never the fastest so he needs to attack from behind. It's not a big surprise that he didn't deliver in Lombardia, Liege and Sanremo. Long range attacks often fail you know.

Nothing he's done since his last Tour suggests that he's really improved that much in that respect to fight for the podium.

- 2 podiums in the Giro (the second one battling against Contador and losing the second place, and therefore the victory, due to a long range attack on stage 15, trying to win.)
- Vuelta win.
Before his last Tour I daresay he didn't do anything of these.

 

[theyoungest]

Nibali is so weak in long efforts... In fact he's always with the best in all the classics longer than 200 kms, while in FW (198 kms) he just hadn't the kick to compete with the best. The stamina is really his main asset. He's never the fastest so he needs to attack from behind. It's not a big surprise that he didn't deliver in Lombardia, Liege and Sanremo. Long range attacks often fail you know.

I don't mean he can't handle the distance, I mean that when he has to go full gas for a long period of time he falters. Don't you think it's strange that when he's so clearly the strongest on the Sormano or the Roche aux Faucons, he seems to come to a near-standstill after 20 k? This didn't happen to Andy Schleck, when he won LBL, for instance. When you have a 50 second gap at 10 k from the finish, it's almost impossible to lose.

- 2 podiums in the Giro (the second one battling against Contador and losing the second place, and therefore the victory, due to a long range attack on stage 15, trying to win.)

I can't even think of which attack you mean... the one on the descent?

- Vuelta win.

Ah, so Juanjo Cobo is now a Tour favourite?

 

[whittashau]

I don't mean he can't handle the distance, I mean that when he has to go full gas for a long period of time he falters. Don't you think it's strange that when he's so clearly the strongest on the Sormano or the Roche aux Faucons, he seems to come to a near-standstill after 20 k? This didn't happen to Andy Schleck, when he won LBL, for instance. When you have a 50 second gap at 10 k from the finish, it's almost impossible to lose.

He had a 40sec gap on Gillbert's group. It was about 25 seconds to Iglinskiy before he attacked.

 

[gilbertador]

He had a 40sec gap on Gillbert's group. It was about 25 seconds to Iglinskiy before he attacked.

This is about right i just rewatched the finale, Nibali had 26 on Iglinsky before the st Nicholas which he even extended to 28 a third of the way up, at this point I have to say Vaughters is right he had a hunger flat, two thirds of the way up Iglinsky had dropped Jrod but the gap was still 25 seconds at the top Nibalis technique deteriorated which is when you see his DS screaming at him, his lead in about a km dropped to 11, on the false flat descent Nibali with his cornering prowess only lost another 3 seconds despite being finished, on the false flat to the finish he blew properly and lost about a second every hundred meters then lost 21 more to the finish>

Iglinskys performance was shocking in comparison to the chasers, he went from, 8 ahead on St Nicholas to 31 ahead at the finish....Nibali struggled only a bit more than you would expect in comparison to a big group but Iglinsky was strong as a bull in the final 10km

 

[hatcher]

Last year Wiggins gained a minute on Nibali in a 50km ITT during the Vuelta.
I think we all agree that was Wiggins best form of his whole career.
And the worst we've seen Nibali in a long time.

I doubt you'll get anyone to agree that was the best form of Wiggins' career.

On the previous stage up La Covatilla Nibali finished 6th, along with the likes of Menchov, Poels, Taaramae, so he clearly was in pretty good form at that point of the race.

Nibali will put a lot of time on Wiggins on the hills and descents alone. Even if Nibali doesn't put a lot of time on him in the mountains he still has a chance.

Evans will be a lot harder to beat however, if he's in top shape, as he doesn't have such obvious weaknesses as Wiggins does.

I think you're overestimating the amount of hills/descents, and Wiggins' weakness on them.

During the Vuelta when he was clearly terrified of falling on descents he lost zero time on them, and Movistar tried their hardest.

Wiggins said he was working on hill finishes all winter. Up Mende in Paris-Nice, the first chance to show this off, he didn't lose the predicted minute to Valverde and Cunego, in fact he was stronger than them both. Whether that's a real improvement or not we'll have to wait and see.

 

[cineteq]

Wiggins said he was working on hill finishes all winter. Up Mende in Paris-Nice, the first chance to show this off, he didn't lose the predicted minute to Valverde and Cunego, in fact he was stronger than them both. Whether that's a real improvement or not we'll have to wait and see.

I kind of agree with you, but I reminder this is Le Squalo Appreciation Thread!!!!

 

[hatcher]

I kind of agree with you, but I reminder this is Le Squalo Appreciation Thread!!!!

I know, and I hesitated to actually send my reply.

I love Nibali and wouldn't mind at all if he were to win the Tour.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

seeing iglinksiy win btw this lbl. it makes me 100% sure cancellara can do this too. check strade bianche of this year

 

[gilbertador]

seeing iglinksiy win btw this lbl. it makes me 100% sure cancellara can do this too. check strade bianche of this year

Im not sure, Iglinsky has won proper mountain stages, theres a lot more competition in lbl than the cobbles and Cancellara would need to break 10 climbers and hilly classic specialists, I can't see him surviving the pace on the final 2 climbs, even then its pritty much an up hill finish. In Strade Bianche he would have been closer to his peak and its not a route for climbers which he will face in lbl

 

[killswitch]

Im not sure, Iglinsky has won proper mountain stages, theres a lot more competition in lbl than the cobbles and Cancellara would need to break 10 climbers and hilly classic specialists, I can't see him surviving the pace on the final 2 climbs, even then its pritty much an up hill finish. In Strade Bianche he would have been closer to his peak and its not a route for climbers which he will face in lbl

There's also the Mendrisio WC RR...

 

[theyoungest]

seeing iglinksiy win btw this lbl. it makes me 100% sure cancellara can do this too. check strade bianche of this year

Check Iglinskiy's results on steep Tirreno hills... he's better suited to this stuff than Spartacus.

 

[Michele]

Right after the finish he said to Rai "..it would have been better to be passed by someone like Gilbert or Evans...".
I guess he didnt mean to be harsh on Iglinsky but he didnt expect him to be a real contender.

 

[El Pistolero]

I'll take that as a compliment

 

[gilbertador]

There's also the Mendrisio WC RR...

Yes and we all know what happened there, he didnt win...If there are a lot of good climbers even if he is the strongest he wont make a difference time and again on hills with out being marked. Lbl is tough though its mainly GC riders at the sharp end the Astana duo and Gilbert the notable exceptions, its won by a GC rider more often than not, I would back any winner since 2000 on a climb against Fabian, the climbs are reasonable in length and unlike flanders or Amstel Gold race which are a few hundred m only.