Maillot Blanc: Who will take it?

[Afrank]

We have 5 riders this year who look like they will contend for the white jersey of the Tour de France.

1. Tejay Van Garderen

5th last year and winner of the white jersey, Van Garderen will be looking to take white again and reaffirm his potential. He'll find it much harder to win white this year with much more climbing and less TTing then last year. Plus there is still the question of who BMC will choose to put all their resources behind for GC, at the very least Van Garderen should get a free role on the team. TJVG is also coming off his first stage race win at the Tour of California, so his confidence will be high. Underestimate him at your own risk.

2. Thibaut Pinot

Seen by many as the next great French GT rider and the big hope of French cycling to become the next French Tour winner since Bernard Hinault in 1985. That's a lot of pressure for a 23 year old, but the young rider is living up to it thus far. Pinot really showed his promise last year taking a stage win in Porrentruy and finishing 10th overall. He will be aiming to do even better this year, and after finishing 4th in the Tour de Suisse, he is looking ready to do battle for white. The time trial holds the biggest disadvantage for him, so he will be looking to make up his losses there in the mountains.

3. Nairo Quintana

The Colombian renaissance is here, and Nairo Quintana leads it. Quintana is seen by many as a climbing phenomenon and as one of the only young riders in the peloton that is a sure thing to become one of the greats. Quintana showed his potential in 2010 winning the Tour de l'Avenir, but he especially showed his talents in the 2012 Vuelta a Espana for his ride on stage 16 riding with Contador and Rodriguez in support of Valverde. He followed up his ride in the Vuelta with a terrific win in the one day Giro dell'Emilia. What's more, Quintana this year showed himself to be capable of beating the Skyborgs when he took 1st overall in the Vuelta a Pais Vasco ahead of 2 of Sky's most promising talents, Sergio Henao and Richie Porte. The thing that may play against Quintana is being without racing before the Tour, having gone back to Colombia to train, as well as having to play a domestique role for Valverde. But if a rider is talented enough, not even being forced to slave for another rider can stand in their way. Is Quintana that rider? There are many signs he just might be.

4. Andrew Talansky

Van Garderen isn't the only big hope for American cycling. Over at Garmin, Andrew Talansky has shown himself to be a definite rider to watch in the future. The Miami native that they call the pit bull showed his talents as a GT rider when he won the Tour de l'Ain and followed up with a 7th place in the 2012 Vuelta a Espana. Talansky has shown even more promise this year when he won a stage and finished 2nd overall in Paris-Nice. Talansky will be part of a 3 man approach for Garmin, joined by Dan Martin and Ryder Hesjedal in their pursuit of a top 10 in GC. Talansky has shown himself a more than capable TTer and climber, making him more than capable of a top placing in July.

 

[Afrank]

5. Michal Kwiatkowski

The big wildcard for the white jersey battle, Kwiatkowski showed his promise earlier this year when he climbed with some of the best in the world in Tirreno-Adriatico, placing 4th on Prati di Tivo and 4th overall. He also has shown great time trialing ability consistently placing in the top 10 in every time trial this year. He even showed promise in the classics with his ride in RVV and top 5's in AGR and FW. The young pole has a plethora of talent. The one thing playing against him is his record in GT's thus far. He has only competed in one GT (2012 Giro), so has yet to show if he has the ability to be competitive across 3 weeks. OPQS seems to have faith in him though selecting him specifically as their contender for the white jersey. And if their is one young rider that could emerge to win white even without having shown anything over 3 weeks, that rider just might be Michal Kwiatkowski.

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My vote goes to Nairo Quintana, I see him as one of the biggest talents we have seen in a long time. I expect he will be given more of a fee role, but even if he ends up working for Valverde he's one of the few guys who I could see still able to place well. Plus I need the CQ points.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

This could easily turn out to be the most compelling battle in this year's tour.

Pinot for me.

One or two bad days cost him a couple of places last year in the GC. Now a little more experienced he may avoid those this year.

2. Talansky
3. Quintana

Quintana's and TJVG's campaigns will be a little hampered by team priorities.

 

[Ferminal]

I've gone into pessimism mode, Quintana to get Valverde'd.

 

[nick101]

I think it'll be between Quintana and Pinot. TJ was rather disappointing at the tds imo, he can definitely get top ten tho. Kwiatkowski is lucky to even get in given OPQS is based entirely around cav.

 

[saneguy]

Pinot has the best chance in the lot..followed by Quintana. As a rider TGVG seems to be the best but he will surely be doing much more duty for Evans and hence may not be able to crack the white jersey.

 

[theyoungest]

Pinot. A better climber than Tejay. Not as good as Quintana, but I'm afraid the little Colombian won't survive the first week madness.

Talansky... I don't know, I think he lacks that pure climbing ability to perform with the best over a three week race.

It's a really interesting competition though. Maybe the most interesting of the coming Tour.

 

[greenedge]

Pinot has the best chance in the lot..followed by Quintana. As a rider TGVG seems to be the best but he will surely be doing much more duty for Evans and hence may not be able to crack the white jersey.

I woud say TJVG is the best all- rounder/ the one with most experience. Unless if Evans has one bad day/ TJVG rides in with him, i wonder how much time he will lose- if he is riding for Evans, considering that Cadel will not get him to up the tempo.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Van Garderen is a far superior time trialler than his main threat Quintana and I think over three weeks, Van Garderen will be better than him on the climbs. Van garderen easily. Amazing how fantasy is trumping reality on this poll.

 

[theyoungest]

Van Garderen is a far superior time trialler than his main threat Quintana and I think over three weeks, Van Garderen will be better than him on the climbs. Van garderen easily. Amazing how fantasy is trumping reality on this poll.

Take out the time trials and Pinot already beat Van Garderen last year. The TTs aren't as decisive this year, and in the 2nd TT Pinot could even beat Van Garderen, since Tejay isn't great in uphill TTs.

 

[Ferminal]

He may struggle on the descents! Quintana will beat him in that TT though. Van Garderen can put maybe 2-3 minutes into them on the first one. Which is small enough to say that the finishing order will probably come down to climbing ability.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Take out the time trials and Pinot already beat Van Garderen last year. The TTs aren't as decisive this year, and in the 2nd TT Pinot could even beat Van Garderen, since Tejay isn't great in uphill TTs.

Okay, take out Pinot's breakaway victory out of the equation, place another minute in for the team time trial this year and include the time TJVG would have had if he did not wait for Evans on La Tousuirre.

TJVG will crush Pinot and was stronger than Pinot last TDF...FACT.

 

[all_in]

Talansky is underrated there.

 

[Parrulo]

Van Garderen is a far superior time trialler than his main threat Quintana and I think over three weeks, Van Garderen will be better than him on the climbs. Van garderen easily. Amazing how fantasy is trumping reality on this poll.

Tejay Van"easily outclimbed by Costa"Garderen a better climber than quintana?

Did you even watch the vuelta last year? Or Catalunya and Pais Vasco this year?

If quintana reaches the first mountain stage a second less then 10 minutes down on TJVG he will still beat him by minutes.

 

[Pentacycle]

Talansky is underrated there.

Yes, he's shown consistency over three weeks, and he's become even stonger than last year, which he showed in the last stage of the Dauphiné. He doesn't have as much pressure to cope with as his teammates Martin and Hesjedal, so he can make his TdF debut with relative ease. Although it's probably just a matter of time with a huge amount of talent, Quintana has yet to display consistency in a GT. Added to that he has done his preparation at home, not racing since LBL. Pinot could have the same problem in consistency, but he's a very good climber potentially.(crappy descender though) Van Garderen is just way overrated as a climber, and the TT's aren't to his advantage. Kwiatko is tired and notlikely to get into top shape again, and seems more likely to be a pawn in Cav's train.

To me the battle will be Talansky vs. Pinot, with a slight advantage to the first.

 

[Lanark]

It's going to be a great battle. Quintana is the greatest climbing talent, and should probably be the favorite based on that. But he hasn't battled for 3 weeks in a hectic race like the Tour, that's going to be a new test for him. And with Movistar, it's not certain how much freedom he'll have.

This years' route doesn't suite Van Garderen as well as last year, but still, he finished 5th, while having to work for Evans in the beginning. That was highly impressive. The same for Pinot of course, finishing top-10 in your first Tour (and first GT) is great. If he improves this year, he could finish very high.

Talansky has impressed a little less, but can still finish top-10 if he improves from last year. Pretty crazy that it's not even unlikely that 4 maillot blanc riders finish in the top-10 of the GC.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Van Garderen is a far superior time trialler than his main threat Quintana and I think over three weeks, Van Garderen will be better than him on the climbs. Van garderen easily. Amazing how fantasy is trumping reality on this poll.

Have you seen Van Garderen climb in Suisse by any chance? He'll lose minutes and minutes to Quintana uphill.

 

[Der Effe]

Voted for Quintana but am hoping for Pinot. French cycling needs major success and a top 5 plus maillot jaune for him would be ideal.

 

[roundabout]

Okay, take out Pinot's breakaway victory out of the equation, place another minute in for the team time trial this year and include the time TJVG would have had if he did not wait for Evans on La Tousuirre.

TJVG will crush Pinot and was stronger than Pinot last TDF...FACT.

Take out 2 minutes Pinot lost in a crash

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Usually, I don't really care for the fight for the maillot blanc, but I think it will be a great battle this year. I voted Quintana because he's simply the best in the mountains, and I'd rate him pretty equal with Pinot on ITT's - perhaps even a bit better.

I agree with whoever said that Talansky is underrated here. I think he's easily as good as Van Garderen.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Have you seen Van Garderen climb in Suisse by any chance? He'll lose minutes and minutes to Quintana uphill.

He was working for Frank and was not concentrating on this race at all. He will peak accordingly to the Tour.

 

[xanadu]

It would seem to be a two horse race this year. Now i know that Pinot nicked Teejays lunch money during their recent Swiss adventure, but the Tour de Suisse is not the TDF. Teejay has the experience and the pedigree.
If Teejay is allowed to race instead of babysitting an ageing Cadel Evans i think he might just podium.

 

[PedalCastro]

I voted for Pinot.
Quintana will be working too much for Valverde I think, which is a pity. Though if Valverde blows up it's a different story.

IMO this will be the closest classification this year

 

[Miburo]

He was working for Frank and was not concentrating on this race at all. He will peak accordingly to the Tour.

Oh so he failed on purpose in the first stage, and his uphil climbing on the MTT was also to help Frank, right?

Quintana will destroy him, even if the guy is not fully ready for a GT (top 3) he'll still destroy him.

Besides you said evans will win the tour, rights ACF? Seems like a joke but that's how you voted no? So at least you think evans is the leader, shouldn't tj sacrifice his changes for white? He'll need to use everthing he has to win that so no help for evans then.

 

[nick101]

The only thing I think that is stopping TJ from winning is his climbing. He lacks an acceleration whereas all his other rivals have one, plus he climbs slightly slower than riders like pinot or Quintana. His tds mtt was painful for me to watch, as he was just that bad on the flumserberg. His tt'ing is superb and that's often where he regains the time he loses to guys like pinot.