Maillot Blanc: Who will take it?

[Angliru]

Talansky is underrated there.

I agree. I'd rate him above Van Garderen on this parcours.

 

[Angliru]

Good point the Tour has not been kind to mountain pxies in the past. Heras, Mancebo, Galdiano to name but a few who arrived with great expectations and were left to perish.

Mancebo finished as high as top 5, as did Gonalez de Galdeono who if I'm not mistaken wasn't/isn't a pixie and was one of the best versus the clock among his gt contending contemporaries.

 

[Afrank]

You know, typing "FACT" in all caps doesn't make what is just your opinion into reality. That could be seen as your fantasy.

Well, ACF is right that Tejay was stronger last tour. Not a fact that Tejay will "crush" him this tour however.

 

[Angliru]

Well, ACF is right that Tejay was stronger last tour. Not a fact that Tejay will "crush" him this tour however.

Aren't we talking about the 2013 Tour? Who will ultimately prevail among the maillot blanc contenders? Last year's tour route isn't as friendly to Tejay's attributes IMO as last year's.

Still I stand partially corrected.

 

[Afrank]

Aren't we talking about the 2013 Tour? Who will ultimately prevail among the maillot blanc contenders? Last year's tour route isn't as friendly to Tejay's attributes IMO as last year's.

You mean this years route isn't as friendly to his attributes as last years? I would agree. Van Garderen was the stronger overall last year but this year I could easily see Pinot finishing higher. I'm not completely convinced by TJVG's performance at ToS that he will be able to defend this year. And based on Pinot's performance in ToS he looks in form and ready.

I think the battle for white could very well come down to a mountain battle (like we had in the Giro) between Quintana and Pinot.

 

[offbyone]

I voted talansky. Although more so because I would like to see him succeed than think he will get it.

What about Meyer?

 

[Angliru]

You mean this years route isn't as friendly to his attributes as last years? I would agree. Van Garderen was the stronger overall last year but this year I could easily see Pinot finishing higher. I'm not completely convinced by TJVG's performance at ToS that he will be able to defend this year. And based on Pinot's performance in ToS he looks in form and ready.

I think the battle for white could very well come down to a mountain battle (like we had in the Giro) between Quintana and Pinot.

I need to hire you as my editor. Yes, this year's route doesn't favor Van Garderen in the same as last year's.

I agree that Pinot and Quintana battles in the mountains will likely be determining factor but Talansky could get his shoe in the door also.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Some few have succeeded. In some cases they were heavily related to clinic topics.

The first one that comes to mind was Lucien Van Impe.

Pantani was another one but we all know why.

Heras did alright when he was with US Postal and Kelme.

Herrera had problems in the first Tour but then he relatively succeeded on his strong skills. He knew his limitations and never attempted to win the Tour. He lost a lot of time on TT and flats. I venture to say that Quintana is more gifted that Herrera. Having said that, Quintana can pay for his lack of experience in the Tour. I still expect him to fly in the mountains barring any crashes or illness.

Yea, my first thought on seeing that was "wait, what about van Impe?"

It's generally a truism though that the stereotypical 'pure climbers' in the péloton are more likely to produce top GC performances at the Giro and to a lesser extent the Vuelta than the Tour. Hard to see a Pozzovivo or an Antón in the top 5 in France, ever.

 

[42x16ss]

For those who put stock into it
Bet 365 has it as
TJVG
Quintana
Pinot
Talansky
Meyer
Kwiatkowski

Meyer!?!?!

How do people keep holding these kinds of expectations?

 

[42x16ss]

I voted talansky. Although more so because I would like to see him succeed than think he will get it.

What about Meyer?

Meyer?

No. Just no. He'll have at least one terrible day in the mountains where he finishes in the autobus.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Aren't we talking about the 2013 Tour? Who will ultimately prevail among the maillot blanc contenders? Last year's tour route isn't as friendly to Tejay's attributes IMO as last year's.

Still I stand partially corrected.

The route still has two individual time trials and a team time trial in it. I expect TJVG to have 3 to 4 minutes on Quintana from those events.

Well, ACF is right that Tejay was stronger last tour. Not a fact that Tejay will "crush" him this tour however.

I believe TJVG will, but my comment was in reply to another poster's usage of the 2012 Tour as justification of Pinot being stronger than TJVG. The facts show that he wasn't in 2012.

The same Van Garderen that was outclimbed at ToC by US domestic team rider who is likely a level behind his native Colombian's Quintana, Henao, Uran, and Betancur in the mountains? It's your belief that come the Tour's third week Quintana will be running on fumes due to his servitude to Valverde? That Teejay's maturity and experience from having ridden the Tour last year will give him the edge as the Tour progresses?

I think Van Garderen is not the elite climber that he thinks he is and will ultimately lose minutes to Quintana in the Tour's mountains. Also with one of the itt's being hilly I don't see him gaining enough of an advantage against the clock to offset his losses in the mountains.

Again, using form in May can't be used to compare what Teejay's form will be in July. I don't think he is a great climber, but I believe over three weeks, TJVG will have the endurance over him. I also think that it is likely that Quintana will lose time on one of the flat stages.

 

[nick101]

The route still has two individual time trials and a team time trial in it. I expect TJVG to have 3 to 4 minutes on Quintana from those events.

I believe TJVG will, but my comment was in reply to another poster's usage of the 2012 Tour as justification of Pinot being stronger than TJVG. The facts show that he wasn't in 2012.

Quintana is of very similar ability to TJ in tts. He actually puts out a very good tt and would lose under 30 seconds on a bad day. With TJ struggling on a mtt, I expect Quintana to actually gain time on TJ in the hilly tt and not the other way round.

 

[jaylew]

The route still has two individual time trials and a team time trial in it. I expect TJVG to have 3 to 4 minutes on Quintana from those events.

3-4 minutes? No way. Quintana is not a bad TTer. He will lose time in the 1st TT but I expect Movistar to be better than BMC in the TTT and he won't lose much time, if any, in the 2nd TT.

TTs aside, I could see Nairo losing time to TJ in the 1st week.

 

[Bexon30]

I'm going for Nairo and if Froome or Alberto have bad luck then there's a chance of yellow also for me. I think he will really excell in the mountains this July more than people expect(even though people now expect a lot).

 

[ElChingon]

I'd vote other if it were available, don't thing that batch listed will take it at the end.

 

[Bexon30]

I'd vote other if it were available, don't thing that batch listed will take it at the end.

Who do you think might perform better over 3 weeks? Genuine interest

Edit: or will some rider take a chunk of time in a break away.

 

[42x16ss]

It's really hard to see past Quintana and Pinot here, these two are huge talents. TJVG will push them for sure but he has a demanding team leader and less TT km's than last year.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Meyer?

No. Just no. He'll have at least one terrible day in the mountains where he finishes in the autobus.

probably, however the route is such that he could hang on (or close by) until the Ventoux stage (15).

Then then 3rd week in the tour hits, still I think he could surprise a bit (not winning the jersey, but a good performance).

 

[Angliru]

The route still has two individual time trials and a team time trial in it. I expect TJVG to have 3 to 4 minutes on Quintana from those events.

Movistar has become one of the better teams against the clock. I can't see that being an advantage for TJVG.

 

[Angliru]

I'd vote other if it were available, don't thing that batch listed will take it at the end.

I'm curious to hear who your pick may be.

 

[xanadu]

An ageing Evans will have the Giro in his legs, surely his team will know this and allow Tejay free reign. As for Valverde i am not convinced, yes hes good, but has he had a stellar TDF. I can see Alejandro loosing time and Quintana forced to watch as Pinot and TJVG clop off round the corner and out of sight.

 

[Taxus4a]

In my opinion Pinot becouse he is leader, and Quintana an TVG no. Despite I think Pinot could be a little disappointment this TdF for his fans

Kwiatkowski could be, but he has to demostrate he is able with three weeks, Pinot did it. And it is a team with a lot of stars, and Cav.

Talansky? he is talentd, he show in the Vuelta he can, but he had some problems, and, in the mountains I see Pinot stronger.

But anyway, I think Hesjedal will be the leader, and Dan Martin second, so Talansky has to help and learn. Hesjedal could be in the podium.

Quintana could show some days he is even the best climber, but, he has difficult the GC this year.

 

[DenisMenchov]

I would like to see Thibaut Pinot take the MB.

 

[Escarabajo]

The route still has two individual time trials and a team time trial in it. I expect TJVG to have 3 to 4 minutes on Quintana from those events.

...

You need to read this about Quintana's abilities against the clock.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/...a-the-outsider

In fact the second TT suits him very well.

Having said that, I will not be surprised if he loses some time in the flat stages. In the past not being hot enough at the start of races is what had made him loose time (Vuelta 2012 and Paris-Nice 2013).

 

[Viking]

In my opinion Pinot becouse he is leader, and Quintana an TVG no. Despite I think Pinot could be a little disappointment this TdF for his fans

Kwiatkowski could be, but he has to demostrate he is able with three weeks, Pinot did it. And it is a team with a lot of stars, and Cav.

Talansky? he is talentd, he show in the Vuelta he can, but he had some problems, and, in the mountains I see Pinot stronger.

But anyway, I think Hesjedal will be the leader, and Dan Martin second, so Talansky has to help and learn. Hesjedal could be in the podium.

Quintana could show some days he is even the best climber, but, he has difficult the GC this year.

That was pretty much my thinking when I voted for Pinot.