Funny to see how sure some here are of who will win. While actually it seems a pretty open 4 way battle.
Van Garderen was very impressive last year. This year:
+ Experience.
+ Generally improved his results in the Tour-centered build up
- or ? (Basically all - should be ?, but looks nicer with -) Parcours less favorable than last year. And with Froome as Sky nr 1 a different way of riding, more offensive, a shorter train. Could hurt him.
- A stronger Evans than 12
- While he has been there so far in 13, often still a bit disappointing. Paris Nice seemed to be regarded as nr 1 favorite, beaten not only by Porte but also Talansky. California, beaten by Acevedo twice, König once. OK, for them California more of a "top form event", still.. while he's been good, somehow almost more was expected so far.
Talansky:
+ Has beaten TJ in Paris Nice
+ Somehow seems to be still progressing "more" than Van Garderen
- Hesjedal in the team.
- Lack of TdF experience
- No proof that he can deliver on "real mountain stages" as opposed to Vuelta 1 climb festivals. (I think he can, but he hasn't really really shown that yet, despite doing well in more than 1 climb Vuelta stages, even if there the action started on the last one anyway)
Pinot:
+ Experience
+ Potentially the best climber of the lot. (Quintana too of course)
+ Clear team leader
- Pressure (which this year will be there)
- ITT and TTT
Quintana:
+ Potentially the best climber of the lot
+ Potentially the most complete of them all.
- Valverde
- Lack of experience at the Tour.
None of them is clearly above the lot, really any of the 4 can get it. IMO Pinot and Quintana have the biggest potential to completely explode and end up on the podium. But both could not end up in the top 10 easily as well. Especially Quintana with Valverde in the team. The safest to end up in the Top 10 seems Van Garderen actually. If I had to bet on one would probably bet on Pinot, clear nr 1 in the team. But none of the other 3 would be a surprise..
Anybody else would be. Most likely then Kwiatowski, great Tirreno and Ardennes... if he gets that form back.. ok, then he is in the fight. But since I didn't even know the guy before 2013, he's done enough this year. Plus with Cav in the team... Chavanel will already get a free role, Kwiatkowski too, but still. He has time anyway. Then Bardet, a bit disappointing classics actually, still 13th in LBL though. But he'll be a GT guy, might be a year too soon, first GT, Péraud as GC man, but he has the potential. Or Moser... he should be the italian GC man of the future.. just hasn't shown it so far, more classics then climbing. Don't think he'll show it here either but you never know.