And an important point also is that he has a good team. He has a team that will take time to that of one of his biggest rivals or his biggest rival, Pinot, on the TTT...
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And an important point also is that he has a good team. He has a team that will take time to that of one of his biggest rivals or his biggest rival, Pinot, on the TTT...zombo10 said:Yes, Nairo has all the qualities to win the white jersey this year for me! Especially with the profile of the 2013 edition, he has nothing to envy to his opponents... Vamos Nairo!
Funny to see how sure some here are of who will win. While actually it seems a pretty open 4 way battle.
Van Garderen was very impressive last year. This year:
+ Experience.
+ Generally improved his results in the Tour-centered build up
- or ? (Basically all - should be ?, but looks nicer with -) Parcours less favorable than last year. And with Froome as Sky nr 1 a different way of riding, more offensive, a shorter train. Could hurt him.
- A stronger Evans than 12
- While he has been there so far in 13, often still a bit disappointing. Paris Nice seemed to be regarded as nr 1 favorite, beaten not only by Porte but also Talansky. California, beaten by Acevedo twice, König once. OK, for them California more of a "top form event", still.. while he's been good, somehow almost more was expected so far.
Talansky:
+ Has beaten TJ in Paris Nice
+ Somehow seems to be still progressing "more" than Van Garderen
- Hesjedal in the team.
- Lack of TdF experience
- No proof that he can deliver on "real mountain stages" as opposed to Vuelta 1 climb festivals. (I think he can, but he hasn't really really shown that yet, despite doing well in more than 1 climb Vuelta stages, even if there the action started on the last one anyway)
Pinot:
+ Experience
+ Potentially the best climber of the lot. (Quintana too of course)
+ Clear team leader
- Pressure (which this year will be there)
- ITT and TTT
Quintana:
+ Potentially the best climber of the lot
+ Potentially the most complete of them all.
- Valverde
- Lack of experience at the Tour.
None of them is clearly above the lot, really any of the 4 can get it. IMO Pinot and Quintana have the biggest potential to completely explode and end up on the podium. But both could not end up in the top 10 easily as well. Especially Quintana with Valverde in the team. The safest to end up in the Top 10 seems Van Garderen actually. If I had to bet on one would probably bet on Pinot, clear nr 1 in the team. But none of the other 3 would be a surprise..
Anybody else would be. Most likely then Kwiatowski, great Tirreno and Ardennes... if he gets that form back.. ok, then he is in the fight. But since I didn't even know the guy before 2013, he's done enough this year. Plus with Cav in the team... Chavanel will already get a free role, Kwiatkowski too, but still. He has time anyway. Then Bardet, a bit disappointing classics actually, still 13th in LBL though. But he'll be a GT guy, might be a year too soon, first GT, Péraud as GC man, but he has the potential. Or Moser... he should be the italian GC man of the future.. just hasn't shown it so far, more classics then climbing. Don't think he'll show it here either but you never know.
Van Garderen was very impressive last year. This year:
+ Experience.
+ Generally improved his results in the Tour-centered build up
- or ? (Basically all - should be ?, but looks nicer with -) Parcours less favorable than last year. And with Froome as Sky nr 1 a different way of riding, more offensive, a shorter train. Could hurt him.
- A stronger Evans than 12
- While he has been there so far in 13, often still a bit disappointing. Paris Nice seemed to be regarded as nr 1 favorite, beaten not only by Porte but also Talansky. California, beaten by Acevedo twice, König once. OK, for them California more of a "top form event", still.. while he's been good, somehow almost more was expected so far.
Talansky:
+ Has beaten TJ in Paris Nice
+ Somehow seems to be still progressing "more" than Van Garderen
- Hesjedal in the team.
- Lack of TdF experience
- No proof that he can deliver on "real mountain stages" as opposed to Vuelta 1 climb festivals. (I think he can, but he hasn't really really shown that yet, despite doing well in more than 1 climb Vuelta stages, even if there the action started on the last one anyway)
Pinot:
+ Experience
+ Potentially the best climber of the lot. (Quintana too of course)
+ Clear team leader
- Pressure (which this year will be there)
- ITT and TTT
Quintana:
+ Potentially the best climber of the lot
+ Potentially the most complete of them all.
- Valverde
- Lack of experience at the Tour.
None of them is clearly above the lot, really any of the 4 can get it. IMO Pinot and Quintana have the biggest potential to completely explode and end up on the podium. But both could not end up in the top 10 easily as well. Especially Quintana with Valverde in the team. The safest to end up in the Top 10 seems Van Garderen actually. If I had to bet on one would probably bet on Pinot, clear nr 1 in the team. But none of the other 3 would be a surprise..
Anybody else would be. Most likely then Kwiatowski, great Tirreno and Ardennes... if he gets that form back.. ok, then he is in the fight. But since I didn't even know the guy before 2013, he's done enough this year. Plus with Cav in the team... Chavanel will already get a free role, Kwiatkowski too, but still. He has time anyway. Then Bardet, a bit disappointing classics actually, still 13th in LBL though. But he'll be a GT guy, might be a year too soon, first GT, Péraud as GC man, but he has the potential. Or Moser... he should be the italian GC man of the future.. just hasn't shown it so far, more classics then climbing. Don't think he'll show it here either but you never know.
Mikkel Condé v2.0@mrconde11m
Euskaltel DS Igor Galdeano: "We aim for the White Jersey with Ion Izagirre and for the KOM Jersey with Antón & Nieve" (via @biciciclismoweb)
Euskaltel DS Igor Galdeano: "We aim for the White Jersey with Ion Izagirre and for the KOM Jersey with Antón & Nieve" (via @biciciclismoweb)
Cimber said:
Interesting that the KOM jersey is mentioned. Indeed Nieve would be a perfect contender as his breakaway tactics usually work out well for him. Anton is more of a GC rider when in good form as he showed in the 2010 vuelta and at times in the 2011 giro.. Never actually heard about Ion Izagirre
Is this a good or bad first week for Kwiatkowski? He has started well but is having to work for Cav.
puffin said:
Results-wise it has been very good but he has expended a lot more energy already than any of the other contenders. I think he will lack some freshness in the last week, both physically and mentally.
He was always going to have to work for Cav, as OPQS's goal is first to leadout out Cav to stage wins. So it was expected.
Overall it's been a good week for him though, gotten to wear white, put some time (even if it's just a few seconds) into the other guys, shown he can also sprint. I'm looking forward to seeing how his consistency over 3 weeks will be this Tour. That's the one thing he hasn't shown ability to do yet.
Overall it's been a good week for him though, gotten to wear white, put some time (even if it's just a few seconds) into the other guys, shown he can also sprint. I'm looking forward to seeing how his consistency over 3 weeks will be this Tour. That's the one thing he hasn't shown ability to do yet.
He came so to close to taking yellow as well. At the end of the TTT Cav said something like: "We rode really well, we couldn't have done much better, except maybe 1 or 2 seconds in the corners" So Kwiatkowski may have been 1 mistimed corner away from wearing yellow. I doubt he would have held it any longer than Gerrans anyway though.
First big mountain stage out of the way, and these are the standings.
1. QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 32h 17' 57''
2. TALANSKY Andrew 32h 18' 43'' + 00' 46''
3. KWIATKOWSKI Michal 32h 19' 20'' + 01' 23''
4. BARDET Romain 32h 19' 30'' + 01' 33''
5. PINOT Thibaut 32h 22' 34'' + 04' 37''
6. VAN GARDEREN Tejay 32h 28' 33'' + 10' 36''
Looks like TJVG is out of the fight. Pinot will have quite a bit to make up now (I think he'll try to make it up). Kwiatkowski and Talansky look like Quintana's main competitors. They could gain on him in the TT, but he could just as easily gain as much or more on them with a good ride in the mountains.
So who's looking like the best bet to take it? I'm sticking with my original pick of Nairito.
1. QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 32h 17' 57''
2. TALANSKY Andrew 32h 18' 43'' + 00' 46''
3. KWIATKOWSKI Michal 32h 19' 20'' + 01' 23''
4. BARDET Romain 32h 19' 30'' + 01' 33''
5. PINOT Thibaut 32h 22' 34'' + 04' 37''
6. VAN GARDEREN Tejay 32h 28' 33'' + 10' 36''
Looks like TJVG is out of the fight. Pinot will have quite a bit to make up now (I think he'll try to make it up). Kwiatkowski and Talansky look like Quintana's main competitors. They could gain on him in the TT, but he could just as easily gain as much or more on them with a good ride in the mountains.
So who's looking like the best bet to take it? I'm sticking with my original pick of Nairito.
Quintana, of course. He's head and shoulders above the rest. Unless Movistar keep using him as a way to tire out the Skyborg, for Valverde who doesn't stand a chance of beating them.Afrank said:
Afrank said:
Pinot will get back into the fight a bit later, but there might be too much damage already.
Bardet really is a class act. Hopefully he won't tank completely in the 3rd week.
As Hesjedal's GC aspiration went down the toilet, Talansky has a really good chance now imo.
Kwia is still an unknown factor imo.
Even with a long range attack Quintana finished far in front of them. In the next mountain stages he could easily win a minute or 2 per mountain stage...
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Still too early to tell imo.
Pinot was dreadful in the first mountain stage last year as well and later he was the only rider who could match Froome/Wiggins on the climbs.
And I wouldn't discount Valverde's ambitions in this race.
theyoungest said:
But even doing that I think he could put more time on his rivals and put them into difficulty. His attack contributed to Pinot being dropped on ax3. And he'll put even more time into them if Movistar has him attack on the finish climb (ventoux a good stage for that).
After stage 9:
1 (1) QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander Movistar Team 37:01:20
2 (3) KWIATKOWSKI Michal Omega Pharma - Quick-Step 1:23
3 (4) BARDET Romain AG2R La Mondiale 5:07
4 (2) TALANSKY Andrew Garmin - Sharp 7:33
5 (5) PINOT Thibaut Equipe Cycliste FDJ.fr 29:29
Pinot gone forever. Must be disappointing for him.
Kwia should take some time on Quintana in the flat TT.
Poland vs Colombia? Perhaps, but lets not throw Bardet away just yet.
1 (1) QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander Movistar Team 37:01:20
2 (3) KWIATKOWSKI Michal Omega Pharma - Quick-Step 1:23
3 (4) BARDET Romain AG2R La Mondiale 5:07
4 (2) TALANSKY Andrew Garmin - Sharp 7:33
5 (5) PINOT Thibaut Equipe Cycliste FDJ.fr 29:29
Pinot gone forever. Must be disappointing for him.
Kwia should take some time on Quintana in the flat TT.
Poland vs Colombia? Perhaps, but lets not throw Bardet away just yet.
Wow - simply wow... Quintana looks awesome, looking really really forward to follow him in the coming years. When is his contract up for renewal?
Hadn't paid much notice of him before now, but definitely newfangled fan here...
Hadn't paid much notice of him before now, but definitely newfangled fan here...
Wigwan said:
I see Kwia gaining 40-50s in the flat one.
The climby one? Normally one would favor Quintana a bit, but its stage 17 and Kwia seems to be doing well. How much work have the Colombian done for the team at that point? Tough call imo.
It doesn't matter how much time Kwiat can take in ITT
Quintana will takes LIGHTYEARS up Kwiat on Ventoux and Alpe d'Huez alone...
Quintana will takes LIGHTYEARS up Kwiat on Ventoux and Alpe d'Huez alone...
Is Pinot ill or is he just that bad?
I mean, dropping from 50 riders in the home GT you've been waiting the whole year? Big disappointment.
Bardet on the other hand...
I mean, dropping from 50 riders in the home GT you've been waiting the whole year? Big disappointment.
Bardet on the other hand...
Look at the original responses.
Clearly Pinot overrated, also TJVG. The man has to go for a stage win at some point with Evans pretty much out the GC or his Tour is a complete failure.
Kwiatkowski underrated !
Bardet - combativity holder - not even on the list !
Quintana is the obvious big GC hopeful to stop Skyborg in coming years though.
Clearly Pinot overrated, also TJVG. The man has to go for a stage win at some point with Evans pretty much out the GC or his Tour is a complete failure.
Kwiatkowski underrated !
Bardet - combativity holder - not even on the list !
Quintana is the obvious big GC hopeful to stop Skyborg in coming years though.
SafeBet said:
Not heard he should be sick.
I'm guessing he didn't take the descending debacle well and hasn't recovered. We shall see if he can get back on track in other races later. Still young.
On Bardet, I noticed how he rode at Tour of Turkey in '12. Good build and looks great on a bike. It will be interesting to see how he does in the 3rd week.
Dazed and Confused said:
He needs to get used to it cause there will be plenty of descending troubles in his career. He's probably not a GT rider.
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