Maillot Blanc: Who will take it?

[Dazed and Confused]

He needs to get used to it cause there will be plenty of descending troubles in his career. He's probably not a GT rider.

yep, needs to improve lots in that department. Too early to write him off as GT contender.

 

[TheBean]

I initially voted for Tejay. What can I say, I am an American with hopes for a new national hero in the TdF. Maybe next year...

But, I'm a Quintana bandwagoner. Any rookie who wears the red number while helping his team leader achieve 2nd on GC deserves a lot of respect.

I'm curious to see how his TT's go.

And, twice up l'Alpe seems a venue custom made for his to show his stuff, as long as he can navigate the descent with the other top climbers.

 

[saneguy]

Quintana is simply too good for the rest. Even if he loses a little time in the TTs it does not matter...he will gain quite a lot in the mountains. Barring any injury I think Quintana has got this one in the bag - even if he has to help Valverde in the 2/3 week.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Situation after stage 11:

1 (2) KWIATKOWSKI Michal Omega Pharma - Quick-Step 42:34:08
2 (1) QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander Movistar Team 0:34
3 (3) BARDET Romain AG2R La Mondiale 6:53
4 (4) TALANSKY Andrew Garmin - Sharp 8:27

The excitement will go on for a while.

 

[Afrank]

34 seconds is nothing. A single strong attack on Ventoux will give the maillot blanc back to Nairito.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

nah.. Quintana takes 3 minutes or maybe even more on Ventoux. Game over.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I would think there is a good chance Quintana has a bad day at some point - probably in the final week. He came into this race with no recent racing

 

[Escarabajo]

I would think there is a good chance Quintana has a bad day at some point - probably in the final week. He came into this race with no recent racing

So there is no chance of bad days on the others?

 

[Afrank]

Was about to say the same thing, no more a chance of Quintana having a bad day then Kwiatkowski. Don't forget Kwiatkowski is untested over 3 weeks.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Of course but that's different to saying Game over

 

[Dazed and Confused]

nah.. Quintana takes 3 minutes or maybe even more on Ventoux. Game over.

normally yes, but I expect Quintana will work lots for Valverde. Kwia will just wheelsuck for now.

Could make a difference.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The only 'work' I've seen Quintana do for Valverde is attacking Froome lol

 

[Dazed and Confused]

The only 'work' I've seen Quintana do for Valverde is attacking Froome lol

and gained very little while spending energy, This pattern will continue until Movistar gives up getting Valverde further up the ladder.

Get the picture?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

No, i seriously don't.

He might have spent a little on Ax-3. But on the 2nd stage he only did some short bursts, nothing special.

Seriously, I cannot see how Kwiat can possible stay within 3 minutes of Quintana in the next brutal mountain finishes.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

No, i seriously don't.

He might have spent a little on Ax-3. But on the 2nd stage he only did some short bursts, nothing special.

Seriously, I cannot see how Kwiat can possible stay within 3 minutes of Quintana in the next brutal mountain finishes.

a little on ax-3? He was riding alone for more than 20kms. He might be very strong, perhaps much stronger/better than Kwia, but TdF can be brutal if energy is spend hard along the way.

Kwia of course can tank along the way also.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

the likelyhood of kwiat tanking the 3rd week is far greater.

Quintana was fantastic in the 3rd week of the Vuelta even when expanding large amounts of energy in the service of Valverde

 

[Angliru]

I would think there is a good chance Quintana has a bad day at some point - probably in the final week. He came into this race with no recent racing

Under those circumstances, wouldn't his bad day come earlier rather than later? With no recent racing, it seems that his problems would come within the earlier stages and even more likely on the first mountainous stage. He's been steady up to this point. I don't see a bad day coming after this point unless it's the result of his inexperience (not eating/hydrating enough) or getting caught out on the wrong side of an echelon. I think he's got the white jersey wrapped up. He had a minute plus edge on Kwiatkowski before today's itt and there's still many more mountains and a hilly itt to go. Looks to be favorable for Quintana unless he puts in a horrible itt versus Kwiatkowski's steady climbing and solid tt.

 

[Pentacycle]

The only 'work' I've seen Quintana do for Valverde is attacking Froome lol

Nairo made Froome sweat.(a little) That still counts as domestique work.

 

[SafeBet]

Big Kwiatkowski fan here but I reckon he will fade later in the third week. So Nairo Q should have a comfortable margin by the end of the tour.

Don't rule out long range attacks by Bardet though.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Under those circumstances, wouldn't his bad day come earlier rather than later? With no recent racing, it seems that his problems would come within the earlier stages and even more likely on the first mountainous stage.

I tend to think later rather than earlier. I'd have thought being fresh would get you through the first half but in the final week it's the strength built up from recent competitive racing which counts for a lot. Not a lot to base that on mind because it's so unusual to do the approach that Quintana is trying. Guess we'll find out

 

[karlboss]

There'll be a showdown on ventoux, and no tactics to be played out before the climb. Quintana will finish with or infront of Valverde and Kwiatowski will lose over 2 minutes to put Quintana in white, and he'll then stay in it.

 

[luckyboy]

Just writing about this. Quintana will surely take this with ease.

Always thought Talansky was 3/4 years younger than he is for some reason


Also whatever happened to Sicard? Over an hour and a half down on the White GC.
Never recovered from his shoe/leg alignment problem I guess? Sad

 

[Gloin22]

No, just clinic reasons imo. He was never seen as amazing talent, until somehow few years ago he went total crazy in 2009/10. After that, not much..

.......

Quintana without any incidents should take this, however Kwiatkowski gave him a brave fight until this point at least, not many expected him to be in white at this point in my opinion.

 

[theyoungest]

Yeah, Sicard is just sad. Twice in a break, twice dropped with the least acceleration.

The white jersey competition is surprisingly weak, actually. There's no way that Kwiatkowski will be able to match Quintana in the mountains to come. And the rest of them are too far back.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

If Bardet ever was in contention we can firmly put that idea aside now (barring accidents):

1 Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-Quick Step 51:05:14
2 Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas (Col) Movistar Team 0:00:34
3 Andrew Talansky (USA) Garmin-Sharp 0:08:27
4 Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:15:51
5 Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:33:24

I can still see a couple of scenarios where Kwia can take the jersey. Quintana probably needs to move GC wise (or get a result) on Ventoux to be granted all of Movistar's resources for the rest of the race (this is just my opinion).

Talansky? Maybe as a result of a big break today.