Maillot Sable

I was just listening to the Cycling Tips podcast which has an ongoing thread about a virtual maillot sable (sand coloured, to represent sand in a timer), 'awarded' to the rider who is more than, but closest to, one hour behind the GC leader.
Whereas most jerseys are by this stage held by riders who might have realistic thoughts of holding it to the end, that is not the case here: current wearer Gougeard is unlikely to keep pace with Pogacar for the remaining 2 weeks.

Recent winners:
2021 Mollema 20th 1:02:18
2020 Quintana 17th 1:03:07
2019 De Plus 23rd 1:02:44
2018 Mollema 26th 1:06:33
2017 Chavanel 25th 1:04:22
2016 Kangert 25th 1:03:59
2015 Kreuziger 15th 1:02:51
2014 Porte 23rd 1:01:08
2013 Kloden 30th 1:02:43
2012 Voeckler 26th 1:04:41
2011 Thomas 31st 1:00:48

Not only Thomas, but also Contador has won this as part of his journey to win the Tour (2005)

So, for a bit of fun, who is your tip for the Maillot Sable this year? And who will have it on the next rest day (after st 15)?
I'll go for Luis Leon Sanchez as the final winner, with Gallopin having care of it next Monday.

(In keeping with the CT definition, if your pick is at a gap of less than an hour, he cannot be the holder of the jersey, nor the closest among those picked)
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Surely it should be awarded to the last rider to finish before the sand runs out and not the first to finish afterwards. Kreuziger was only under an hour by two seconds in 2017.

Anyway, my picks are George Bennett after week two and Valentin Madouas as the final winner.

You make a good point, but maybe the CT rules identify the rider that needs more consoling with this consolation prize.
You make a good point, but maybe the CT rules identify the rider that needs more consoling with this consolation prize.

Only if said rider has actually attempted to finish inside the hour. If it's someone who's already won a stage or stages or is winning one of the other competitions, then it isn't really a consolation prize, but of course that goes for the rider who finishes just inside the hour as well.
Going to be bold and say Aurelien Paret-Peintre with a 14th place finish. I think Stages 11 and 12 are going to see some huge gaps beyond the top 5 or so.
You have to go a long way back (I think 1969) to find a Tour where less than 14 riders were within one hour of the leader.

Closest in recent times was 2015, with 15 riders finishing within an hour. And that was no coincidence since the top tier level in that Tour was extremely high (arguably the strongest GT top5 ever?)

I'll go with Kämna for the sable (which I thought was pastry before opening the thread).
So at the rest day, the Maillot Sable, just 5 seconds over the hour, was McNulty in 25th.

For the end of week 2, only three of us made a guess:
Samu Cuenca had George Bennett, who was already DNF by then

Mortand guessed Nick Schultz, while I had Gallopin, and on Sunday night, if you looked far enough down the GC, you would have seen this:
So, by an almost Lemond/Fignon-esque margin, that title goes to Mortand

As at end of stage 17 - one mountain stage, 1 time trial, the Champs Elysee sprint and a probable breakaway to come - the selected riders and others with a high likelihood of winning stand thus:
13MADOUAS ValentinSamu Cuenca27:36
15PIDCOCK ThomasHugo Koblet32:23
16SÁNCHEZ Luis LeónArmchair Cyclist36:58
17KONRAD Patrickppanther41:26
18PINOT ThibautRanagazoo41:50
19KUSS SeppPotomac54:22
20TEUNS Dylan59:28
21MCNULTY Brandon1:00:39
22CARUSO Damiano1:07:38
23JORGENSON Matteo1:15:28
30VAN AERT WoutQueen Stagiare1:31:33
48BENOOT TiesjAvoriaz2:01:19

Those over the hour selected in case they make it back close to that mark on stage 19.

Those in the Madouas-Pinot range would have to have some fairly horrible days on the bike to be in the running, but no-one below 50 minutes really ought to be in danger of winning.
It should be between Kuss, Teuns and McNulty, and depends largely how much any of them really try in the timetrial, especially if the US pair have strong rides tomorrow in support of their leaders. Only one of them has been picked, and that one, Kuss, is, I would suggest, favourite, so Potomac might be clearing space on his trophy shelf. But in case SK actually rides a decent timetrial, and fails to lose 6 minutes odd in the remaining stages, Queen Stagiare could yet be the best of our guesses, and take it almost by default. Avoriaz, meanwhile, like Philipsen in the green jersey contest, can only hope for a DNF for WvA to have any hope.

Picks by Mortand (Kruijswijk), Hayneplane (Paret-Peintre) and Safebet (Kamna) are DNFs.

But there is more tension in this than in most of the official classifications at this point.