(Mid Vuelta) Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a Espana?

[auscyclefan94]

(Mid Vuelta) Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a Espana?

Here's a fresh list of riders who are actually in contention now of which you can vote on. You all have a 2nd chance now to redeem yourselves.

1 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 42:50:41
2 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:07
3 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:00:11
4 Fredrik Kessiakoff (Swe) Pro Team Astana 0:00:14
5 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek 0:00:19
6 Bauke Mollema (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:00:47
7 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Leopard Trek 0:01:06
8 Juan Jose Cobo Acebo (Spa) Geox-TMC 0:01:27
9 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) Team RadioShack 0:01:53
10 Janez Brajkovic (Slo) Team RadioShack 0:02:00
11 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:02:01
12 Marzio Bruseghin (Ita) Movistar Team 0:02:22
13 Denis Menchov (Rus) Geox-TMC 0:02:42
14 Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha Team 0:02:56
15 Sergio Pardilla Belllón (Spa) Movistar Team 0:03:03
16 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Katusha Team 0:03:39
17 Chris Anker Sörensen (Den) Saxo Bank Sungard 0:03:47
18 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:03:50
19 Tiago Machado (Por) Team RadioShack 0:04:06
20 Wout Poels (Ned) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team 0:04:21

 

[jens_attacks]

i'm cheering for kessiakoff so kessiakoff it is.
i would like cobo and purito to take it too but i don't think they can put so much time into the others.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I'll go Bauke. He's climbing really well and he is in a really good position to win a Grand Tour. I am still not 100% on how good Nibali is at this Vuelta. With not many descent finishes for him it will make things a little harder and I am not sure how well he's going on the real steep stuff.

 

[daveinzambia]

going for Kessiakoff. think Mollema, Rodriguez and other climbers will attack, yesterday looked to me like Kessiakoff, Nibali and Wiggins would work together to pull them back. think breaks will get the time bonuses, climbers will take time but not enough and Kessiakoff will win purely because he will get away with doing less work than the other two.

but ask me 5 minutes later and i will give a different answer

 

[WillemS]

Let's vote for Bauke, he was strong yesterday and a bit of wishful thinking adds to my excitement while watching stages.

But, these differences...

1 Bradley Wiggins (GBr)......Sky Procycling........42:50:41
2 Christopher Froome (GBr)...Sky Procycling........+0:00:07
3 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita)......Liquigas-Cannondale...+0:00:11
4 Fredrik Kessiakoff (Swe)...Pro Team Astana.......+0:00:14

... are just insane. Anyone can have a bad day, someone can pick up bonification, it's hard to predict. Normally I would vote for Nibali, hands down, but he didn't really impress me this Vuelta. It might just be him who is having a bad day on the Alto. And I think that will be the decider, who's good Sunday and who loses on Sunday...

 

[theyoungest]

Wiggins. He'll grind up the Angliru in Basso style. For a surprise second I think Kessiakoff could be reasonably close.

Of course I hope Mollema will win, but I don't honestly believe he can. On the Zoncolan he wasn't that great last year. But at least once having done such a long steep climb should help him. I don't know if Wiggins ever has?

As for Nibali not being impressive: he wasn't that impressive for most parts of the Vuelta last year either, and he still won. He's never the best on the day, but he's very consistent.

 

[Kwibus]

I voted Wiggins since he seems to be quite comfortable in the mountains so far. Ofcourse this weekend will give the final answer.

I hope Mollema, but I don't think he will. He also said that the long really steep climbs don't suit him. He based this on his Zoncolan performance last year, but he also added that this a year later and he should be stronger now. He pretty much doesn't know how he will do I guess

If I look at performances in the past then Nibali should win the Vuelta. He was good on the Zoncolan this year and he can survive multiple climbs as well (Saturday). Nibali doesn't seem to be in his best form though.

The real dark horse is Kessiakoff here. He won the Austria this year, but I didn't really follow that race and I figured the competition was really weak. What I know now is that the competition wasn't very good indeed, but he won the stage on the Kitzbuhler Horn and I'm not 100% sure, but isn't that one hell of a steep climb? So he should be good on Angrilu.... he might upset everyone and win this Vuelta. That would be a really big surprise ... to me atleast.

Cobo could take back time in the mountains as well and he really isn't that far behind in the GC. Very curious what he will do.

I think Purito is too far back in the GC. He isn't the rider that attacks with 7km to go and actually stays away. If he does it he always get caught again so there is no way he can make up the time he's behind.

 

[the asian]

I've Voted for Nibali. His consistancy will be the key.
Wiggins should lose some time on Angliru.
Mollema definitely has a good chance to podium.

 

[Kwibus]

Wiggins. He'll grind up the Angliru in Basso style. For a surprise second I think Kessiakoff could be reasonably close.

Of course I hope Mollema will win, but I don't honestly believe he can. On the Zoncolan he wasn't that great last year. But at least once having done such a long steep climb should help him. I don't know if Wiggins ever has?

As for Nibali not being impressive: he wasn't that impressive for most parts of the Vuelta last year either, and he still won. He's never the best on the day, but he's very consistent.

Wiggins also rode the Giro in 2009 so he's done the Zoncolan as well, but I don't think he tried to ride up it as fast as possible.

 

[theyoungest]

Wiggins also rode the Giro in 2009 so he's done the Zoncolan as well, but I don't think he tried to ride up it as fast as possible.

I certainly hope not, for his sake

104. [GBR] WIGGINS Bradley SKY 25'32"

But you're right, I forgot about that. It was 2010, BTW. I think he was still pretty high up on GC before the Zoncolan, so that climb being his undoing doesn't bode well for the Angliru stage.

 

[Midnightfright]

Said Nibali at the start and stand by that. His competition is different as I suspected it would be mostly Anton . Still think Nibbles will have that bit more on a few of the climbs.

 

[Moondance]

I Believe in Brad.

 

[Winterfold]

I certainly hope not, for his sake

104. [GBR] WIGGINS Bradley SKY 25'32"

But you're right, I forgot about that. It was 2010, BTW. I think he was still pretty high up on GC before the Zoncolan, so that climb being his undoing doesn't bode well for the Angliru stage.

This was when he was a) nowhere near the form he is in now b) still not getting the climbing style that suits him and doing silly attacks and then blowing

Who has the most W/kg in this race? That is the person who will go up Angliru the fastest*, it is simple inescapible physics, now that this generations diesels have all developed more confidence to ride at their own pace and let the climbers go - knowing they cannot sustain it for long.

*As long as they remembered their 34:29

 

[Kwibus]

I certainly hope not, for his sake

104. [GBR] WIGGINS Bradley SKY 25'32"

But you're right, I forgot about that. It was 2010, BTW. I think he was still pretty high up on GC before the Zoncolan, so that climb being his undoing doesn't bode well for the Angliru stage.

True, but somehow I get the feeling that Wiggins is a lot better this year than in 2010. Not suggesting anything here btw.

 

[Kwibus]

This was when he was a) nowhere near the form he is in now b) still not getting the climbing style that suits him and doing silly attacks and then blowing

Who has the most W/kg in this race? That is the person who will go up Angliru the fastest*, it is simple inescapible physics, now that this generations diesels have all developed more confidence to ride at their own pace and let the climbers go - knowing they cannot sustain it for long.

*As long as they remembered their 34:29

I don't think it's as simple as who has the most W/kg this race so far. I think we've seen riders drop like stones on the real steep climbs while they had a great w/kg output on the climbs the days before. It's not as simple as that.

This is dangerous territory for me though, because I have no knowledge about output numbers at all.

 

[Jan the Man]

I predicted Nibali at the start of the race and I still think that Nibali will win.

I think that Wiggins will podium as well as Kessiakoff.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I don't think it's as simple as who has the most W/kg this race so far. I think we've seen riders drop like stones on the real steep climbs while they had a great w/kg output on the climbs the days before. It's not as simple as that.

This is dangerous territory for me though, because I have no knowledge about output numbers at all.

People misinterupt w/kg anyway. There is more to out then capable output. Obviously the one who does output such on the day will succeed, but being able to do so has a lot of variables.

W/kg is a better post race analysis (compare also) tool then using for predictions.


Anyway, nibbles i think. He has proven he can do a respectable job on the zoncolan. I do think this might be wiggos best chance ever to win a gt tho.

 

[Winterfold]

I don't think it's as simple as who has the most W/kg

If the diesels ride their own race, have a suitable gear, and are in form, then they will ride the climbers like Rodrigues off their wheels once they are climbing for more than a few km.

There's a few ifs there, but I think Wiggo and Nibbles have shown enough of all 3 - so it is down to who is more powerful of the 2 of them. Wiggo looks better than Nibbles on every MTF so far, but Nibbles may be holding something back.

 

[theyoungest]

This was when he was a) nowhere near the form he is in now b) still not getting the climbing style that suits him and doing silly attacks and then blowing

Probably, but before the stage he was 7th on GC, ahead of Basso, Evans, Nibali etc. To then let go completely and lose half an hour on the next stage probably means that such a climb doesn't really suit him. But we'll see, as I said I think he's the favourite to win, and he could do such a climb Basso style: time trialling his way up a wall.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Shame the first poll wasn't public, so we'll never know most of the Anton groupies.


Hands up if you're still voting for the same person.

 

[greenedge]

I think the top 5 shall be Nibali, JROD, Fuglsang, Wiggins and JVDB. Kessiakoff to come 6th and be the revalation ( for most non-cycling fans ). Too hard to vote on.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Anton was a pretty obvious pick for a lot of posters, and had he the legs from 12 months ago probably would be close to winning this also.

 

[Richeypen]

Shame the first poll wasn't public, so we'll never know most of the Anton groupies.


Hands up if you're still voting for the same person.

I voted for anton, switched to Nibali. Rooting for wiggo though

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Anton was a pretty obvious pick for a lot of posters, and had he the legs from 12 months ago probably would be close to winning this also.

Yeah, the 28 year old who's been a top climber for 4 or 5 years and yet never finished better than 8th in a GT was a pretty obvious choice.

The thing I'm mocking is the deliberate ignorance of any factor other than 1 day climbing capability, that leads people to assume Anton is a top GC guy without any proof, despite having had ample opportunity to prove he is, if he is.

 

[Kwibus]

Shame the first poll wasn't public, so we'll never know most of the Anton groupies.


Hands up if you're still voting for the same person.

*waves hand in the air*