(Mid Vuelta) Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a Espana?

[Midnightfright]

Shame the first poll wasn't public, so we'll never know most of the Anton groupies.


Hands up if you're still voting for the same person.

I voted for Nibbles both times but will admit Nibbles would of been my 2nd choice.
Know I would go
1. Nibbles
2.Wiggo
3.Mollema

 

[Gingerale]

if a rider falls mostly into diesel power climber category it still comes down to how much i like their style and personality whether i cheer or support them. nationality has nothing to do with it for me. i love bozeman, montana so i support teejay van garderen. but i didn't like his attitude after losing the leaders jersey to 'bottle' ToClolorado, so i'm over him until he grows up

nibali is an exciting descender, climbs with the best, has a decent TT and he's cool. he's the smart shark. wiggins - olympic champion mentality, ability to transform himself into GC road warrior but remains to be seen how he climbs on the angry lou. i give him the edge based on the feeling he is wearing the red jersey and not giving it up. if nibali was in red i'd be voting for him. nibs proved himself last vuelta... it's a tight race.

i went with the pure climber and voted anton in the 1st poll. wishful thinking. if i was voting on which GC hopeful has been the most fun to watch, i'd pick mollema and dan martin.

wiggins
nibali
? mollema, kessiakoff ?

 

[hatcher]

Nibali.

But I have absolutely no idea what to expect from any of the other contenders.

 

[luckyboy]

Nibali obviously.

 

[Konfronto]

Voted for Kessiakoff, but understand that odds are really low for him to be an overal winner. However, it is still not really clear what is behind his words and what he is capable of in the real mountains to come. Anyways, he's already 3rd in the GC, so he'll probably stick to the GC guys and keep on utilizing a defend strategy. I really want to see him responding to real attacks from the likes of Rogriguez, Nibally, Wiggins.

 

[icefire]

Nibali plans to win this without attacking, unless he sees Wiggins being dropped.

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundodeporte/2011/09/01/ciclismo/1314901265.html

He deserves the same fate that stroke Cadel Evans two years ago. It should be in La Cueña les Cabres, if I might choose

 

[Parrulo]

Nibali plans to win this without attacking, unless he sees Wiggins being dropped.

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundodeporte/2011/09/01/ciclismo/1314901265.html

He deserves the same fate that stroke Cadel Evans two years ago. It should be in La Cueña les Cabres, if I might choose

hmmm no . . .

he says he will wait for other guys that need more time then him to attack so he can follow but if those attacks don't happen or don't drop wiggins he will attack himself.

"Mañana no voy a atacar, tampoco lo haré en las etapas de montaña. Prefiero esperar a lo que hacen los demás, pero si veo que los mejores, como Wiggins, lo pasan mal, entonces sí atacaré"

 

[cineteq]

hmmm no . . .

he says he will wait for other guys that need more time then him to attack so he can follow but if those attacks don't happen or don't drop Wiggins he will attack himself.

Namely, Nibali is on the driver's seat!

 

[palmerq]

Nighthawk Kessiakof for the win, well I doubt it but I hope he finishes high up..

I voted for wiggins, he seems in great form and I don't think nibali is a super climber although he is probably better than wiggins, I have a strange feeling wiggins will win this by a very small margin.

 

[Parrulo]

Namely, Nibali is on the driver's seat!

exactly. he knows he has the advantage and before making his move he must see how the race develops to see if he will even need to make said move.

 

[icefire]

hmmm no . . .

he says he will wait for other guys that need more time then him to attack so he can follow but if those attacks don't happen or don't drop wiggins he will attack himself.

"Mañana no voy a atacar, tampoco lo haré en las etapas de montaña. Prefiero esperar a lo que hacen los demás, pero si veo que los mejores, como Wiggins, lo pasan mal, entonces sí atacaré"

I'd say this means he'll wait to see what others do and he'll only attack if he sees some of the best suffering or being dropped. But the best will only suffer if someone else attacks. I don't see anywhere in that paragraph where he says what he plans to do if nobody does anything. So he relies on Purito.

 

[cineteq]

On the other hand, I think Sastre has some wise words as well:
“With three mountain stages like these ones in a row, it could mean that if the race has been unpredictable, spectacular and lacking clear conclusions to date, from now on, unexpected things could happen that give it a really nice touch”

So does anybody still think Wiggins can win La Vuelta?

 

[meandmygitane]

hmmm no . . .

he says he will wait for other guys that need more time then him to attack so he can follow but if those attacks don't happen or don't drop wiggins he will attack himself.

Does the article say Kessiakoff is russian or? Granted it is a russian name so it's an easy mistake to do I suppose.

The quote "El italiano Vincenzo Nibali, defensor del título de la Vuelta y cuarto de la general, no dio importancia a la pérdida del tercer puesto en beneficio del ruso Fredrik Kessiakoff y aseguró que no atacará en las próximas etapas de montaña, que serán decisivas para el desenlace final de la carrera"

 

[Parrulo]

I'd say this means he'll wait to see what others do and he'll only attack if he sees some of the best suffering or being dropped. But the best will only suffer if someone else attacks. I don't see anywhere in that paragraph where he says what he plans to do if nobody does anything. So he relies on Purito.

ya you are right i miss read it. tho i doubt he won't attack.

 

[Tank Engine]

Nibbles.

But then, you should never bet on your own team.

I'll go with that. Also, I voted for Nibbles the first time. Bauke also to podium.

 

[Scirea]

I'd say Juan Cobo for sure. He got all the bad stages for him out of the way already (TTT, long flat ITT and 1km hills at the end where guys like Purito make their living) and he is only 1:27 down on Wiggins. He can get that back in one stage if he is going well and from what i have seen so far i'd say he is going very well and he is conserving energy very well.

Also if he will want to get his opponents go into the red on a stage like Saturday, he can do that. His team is very good, they can go a killer tempo for the last two mountains on any given stage. The not so important guys will start the work, then De La Fuente, Sastre and Duarte will go all out on the second-last mountain, Menchov will go all out at the start of the last mountain and then boom, Cobo will go for the kill.

I honestly almost see it like no other scenario is possible.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

wiggo

i am sticking with wiggins.

he has already accomplished everything i had hoped for by not making me look like a total moron for having given him the nod at the start.

he really at this point has as good a shot at the overall as anyone else. or even better because he is in the lead.

angliru will be a very interesting stage. can't wait. all will be revealed.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

i am sticking with wiggins.

he has already accomplished everything i had hoped for by not making me look like a total moron for having given him the nod at the start.

he really at this point has as good a shot at the overall as anyone else. or even better because he is in the lead.

angliru will be a very interesting stage. can't wait. all will be revealed.

having red by just a number of seconds earliness in the race isn't such a great thing, actually I say it is to the advantage of nibbles to be only 10 seconds down without the weight of being leader.

 

[hfer07]

 

[spanky wanderlust]

actually i reckon that the biggest threat for wiggins is purito.we know that his recovery is very good,he's fresh in the 2nd and 3rd week.but he really needs to win all the next three MTFs,that will be one minute from the bonus seconds and he needs to make the ride of his life on angliru.
purito is not done yet.

that would be the most exciting vuelta performance of all time! i can't wait.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

having red by just a number of seconds earliness in the race isn't such a great thing, actually I say it is to the advantage of nibbles to be only 10 seconds down without the weight of being leader.

since the tt, i have asserted in other threads that this race is nibali's to lose.

but i am not throwing wiggins under the bus just yet. like i said. i think he has a real shot of winning it.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

why is bradley wiggins italicized?

 

[daveinzambia]

why is bradley wiggins italicized?

because you voted for him.

 

[crapna]

Anyone above Nibali needs only to wheelsuck him. Sidiman is not capable of dropping any big favourite.

 

[LukeSchmid]

Anyone above Nibali needs only to wheelsuck him. Sidiman is not capable of dropping any big favourite.

Nibali might be able to overtake Wiggin on bonus seconds alone. Wiggins needs riders like Mollema, Martin, Rodriguez or breaks to take bonus seconds. Not sure how Kessiakoff will go chasing bonus seconds if needed.

However I think Nibali will drop Wiggins on Angliru.