(Mid Vuelta) Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a Espana?

[Kwibus]

Yeah, the 28 year old who's been a top climber for 4 or 5 years and yet never finished better than 8th in a GT was a pretty obvious choice.

The thing I'm mocking is the deliberate ignorance of any factor other than 1 day climbing capability, that leads people to assume Anton is a top GC guy without any proof, despite having had ample opportunity to prove he is, if he is.

You are right and wrong. Besides last years Vuelta he never performed for a long perion in a GT. Last year he was good until he crashed out, maybe he would've had a bad day if he didn't crash, but we will never know. Fact is that he was really strong last year.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Yeah, the 28 year old who's been a top climber for 4 or 5 years and yet never finished better than 8th in a GT was a pretty obvious choice.

The thing I'm mocking is the deliberate ignorance of any factor other than 1 day climbing capability, that leads people to assume Anton is a top GC guy without any proof, despite having had ample opportunity to prove he is, if he is.

Ignorant on your behalf actually.

2008 vuelta he was riding awesome. crashed out.
2010 vuelta he was likely to win at that stage crashed out.

His last two serious attempts at the Vuelta he looked awesome, badluck ruined that. His lousiness this vuelta was unexpected.

Because you only know of him in regards to one day racing does not make everyone else ignorant.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

You are right and wrong. Besides last years Vuelta he never performed for a long perion in a GT. Last year he was good until he crashed out, maybe he would've had a bad day if he didn't crash, but we will never know. Fact is that he was really strong last year.

Yeah, but that is pure Jeff Buckley syndrome.

Except I'm being unfair to Jeff, as there's no reason to expect his next 2 albums wouldn't be great, whereas with Igor there is plenty of history to suggest his next 2 weeks would have slid.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Ignorant on your behalf actually.

2008 vuelta he was riding awesome. crashed out.
2010 vuelta he was likely to win at that stage crashed out.

His last two serious attempts at the Vuelta he looked awesome, badluck ruined that. His lousiness was unexpected.

Because you only know of him in regards to one day racing does not make everyone else ignorant.

I'm sorry, but before we started I made clear I considered crashing out a valid reason for not winning a GT. It's also, perversely, a very good cover for any latent problems with keeping it up, as noted above.

You're more than welcome to keep tipping him as favourite next time round, against guys that have actually shown they can do it, but for me he won't be an obvious favourite for any GT until he's podiumed one, given how long he has tried and failed in that pursuit.

 

[CasperVg]

As Mollema, Wiggins and Nibali are some of my favourite riders, it's a fun Vuelta for me. Nibali will probably take it, but only by a marginal advantage on Wiggins.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I'm sorry, but before we started I made clear I considered crashing out a valid reason for not winning a GT. It's also, perversely, a very good cover for any latent problems with keeping it up, as noted above.

You're more than welcome to keep tipping him as favourite next time round, against guys that have actually shown they can do it, but for me he won't be an obvious favourite for any GT until he's podiumed one, given how long he has tried and failed in that pursuit.

Not really. Just because he rode certain GTs doesn't mean he actually went hard. Otherwise by that logic Wiggans should never be a considered a chance. Just because you say he has been pursuing such makes it hardly true.

At giro he went with no GC ambitions, he made that clear.
He never went to the tour with GC ambitions either, more stage hunting.

His last two specific attempts at a GT GC (Vuelta 08' + 10') he showed very consistent riding. They were his first real attempts as a mature rider. Last year was very good, based on that and his generally excellent riding at the vuelta why wouldn't people consider him a big chance to win the vuelta. I personally in the past have considered him more of a Vuelta rider then an overall GT rider, much like some of the italians in the past with the giro.

 

[Rouetheday]

Yeah, but that is pure Jeff Buckley syndrome.

Except I'm being unfair to Jeff, as there's no reason to expect his next 2 albums wouldn't be great, whereas with Igor there is plenty of history to suggest his next 2 weeks would have slid.

I feel like there's a joke here involving Anton crashing into a river, but I can't quite get a handle on it so I'm just going to shut up. Carry on.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Not really. Just because he rode certain GTs doesn't mean he actually went hard. Otherwise by that logic Wiggans should never be a considered a chance. Just because you say he has been pursuing such makes it hardly true.

At giro he went with no GC ambitions, he made that clear.
He never went to the tour with GC ambitions either, more stage hunting.

His last two specific attempts at a GT GC (Vuelta 08' + 10') he showed very consistent riding. They were his first real attempts as a mature rider. Last year was very good, based on that and his generally excellent riding at the vuelta why wouldn't people consider him a big chance to win the vuelta. I personally in the past have considered him more of a Vuelta rider then an overall GT rider, much like some of the italians in the past with the giro.

OK, lets agree to disagree. I will however, by way of gentle ribbing, point out that if you're bringing Wiggins in as a comparison, he clearly has a better palmares than Anton in stage races (i.e. not stage wins, and not 1 day races), with a higher GT placing, and a major 1 week win, plus another 1 week podium.

 

[nvpacchi]

Antón has been trying to race still suffering from gastrointestinal problems dating back to early august. With all the weight loss and lack or training its really not surprising that he's going so poorly. I was hoping he could ride himself into form but I now doubt that will happen for a stage win this weekend.

http://www.diariovasco.com/v/201108...desde-gastroenteritis-tuvo-esta-20110825.html


Definitely rooting for kessiakoff to come through and stun everyone

 

[Climbing]

Nibbles, more than ever now (already voted him in the first poll).
Yes, people likes the type of rider like Rodriguez and Anton (I like them too), but actually both of them never podiumed a GT me thinks (bad luck, inconsistency, a bad day or whatever).

 

[cineteq]

Gotta go with my initial pick: Nibali
The other two spots are up for grabs. Purito, TGBM or Kessiakoff
Wiggins will fade inevitably on the weekend.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

OK, lets agree to disagree. I will however, by way of gentle ribbing, point out that if you're bringing Wiggins in as a comparison, he clearly has a better palmares than Anton in stage races (i.e. not stage wins, and not 1 day races), with a higher GT placing, and a major 1 week win, plus another 1 week podium.

anton also has some 1 week stage results.

his Vuelta a Castilla y León 2nd place was at least equally impressive as wiggans win at the dauphine.

+3rd at suisse.

Wiggos only GT result was in a pretty meh course.
Of course he is looking better this year, I concede that.

Anyway my point was, there is some valid reason to believing anton might have won this race.

obviously you are right that there is some valid reason not to.

 

[Cogombre]

Can't see Nibali losing over 2 min to Joaquim, specially if Purito keeps racing only 1km per stage, and can't see him not winning 11" to Wiggo, specially with three climbs as steep as la Farrapona, L'Angliru and Peña Cabarga to come. I don't really think Kessiakoff and Mollema are real threats so imo this is NIbali's to lose.

Then again, every time I predict a rider winning something he tends to fail as hard as he can.

 

[Tuarts]

In terms of GC, Angrilu will be absolutely pivotal. Looking at CQ and there are a lot of gaps in the previous editions that run up the mountain, there's absolutely no autobus, everyone comes in on their own. That said I don't think we will have as big as time gaps up the front as before, like in 2008. Then there was Contador and Valverde and right now the climbing abilities of everyone seems to be more level. We'll see.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

In terms of GC, Angrilu will be absolutely pivotal. Looking at CQ and there are a lot of gaps in the previous editions that run up the mountain, there's absolutely no autobus, everyone comes in on their own. That said I don't think we will have as big as time gaps up the front as before, like in 2008. Then there was Contador and Valverde and right now the climbing abilities of everyone seems to be more level. We'll see.

I noted this after stage 9.
There is no standout climber here. Certainly to the advantage of wiggo.
But I just feel like nibbles is all-rounded enough to win this race.

 

[Anonymous]

Nibbles.

But then, you should never bet on your own team.

 

[jens_attacks]

actually i reckon that the biggest threat for wiggins is purito.we know that his recovery is very good,he's fresh in the 2nd and 3rd week.but he really needs to win all the next three MTFs,that will be one minute from the bonus seconds and he needs to make the ride of his life on angliru.
purito is not done yet.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

All of the flying midgets were clubbed like baby seals in the ITT, while a number of people who might have been expected to challenge have underperformed on the climbs. Really, we are looking at Nibali and Wiggins from the established GC riders, or a collapse by both of them and a win by a relative unknown.

A dual collapse is entirely possible, but neither have shown any real weakness so far and both have a slight lead, so chances are it comes from one of the two. Nibali has a better GT record and is more proven on tough climbs, so he's the favourite, with Wiggins unexpectedly strong as second favourite.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I don't think Purito will podium but I think he can. If he has a very good day on the Angliru then he could take some massive time out of everyone.

Looking at the route, I think this is a pretty poor Vuelta. I would of liked to of seen some more descisive racing. The gaps are pretty small when looking from 1st to 30th place. The last week will be crap. Other than Pena Carbarga, there are no descisive stages. Whoever goes well on the Angliru will win.

Angliru 2008
1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 5.52.35 (35.65 km/h)
2 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0.42
3 Joaquin Rodriguez (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0.58
4 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Astana 1.05
5 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC - Saxo Bank 1.32
6 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank 1.56
7 Ezequiel Mosquera Miguez (Spa) Xacobeo Galicia 2.18
8 Oliver Zaugg (Swi) Gerolsteiner 2.28
9 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre 2.43
10 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 3.01


Anyone who has an average day will lose. Anyone who has the best day will most likely win. Nibali only needs to hold Wiggins and really make one descisve attack on one of the 3 descisive stages (14-16) and he will win. Wiggins can't be content to just sitting their and defending. It won win him the Vuelta.

 

[AussieGoddess]

well I picked Scarponi ....

but now that that is not going to happen - the other GC'ers in my velogames team are Nibali and JVDB ... so fingers crossed.

 

[Greenflame]

Nibali is in the best position at the moment. One stagewin, or just pretty much any time bonus will give him the lead. Nibali hasn't really impressed me so far though. Yesterday he seemed weaker than Wiggins: when Rodriguez went and Wiggins chased (after already having chased Mollema earlier), Nibali took one turn at the lead and then dropped back. Also, I'm still not entirely willing to cross off Rodriguez from the list of contenders, if Wiggins and Nibali start looking at each other in the mountains he Rodriguez might just take enough time.

I'm finding this Vuelta increasingly hard to predict. I initially thought it would be Menchov, Scarponi, Anton and Nibali (in that order) for the win, but of those only Nibali remains. Never had any faith in Mollema, but he has proven me very wrong this Vuelta. Kessiakoff I don't know anything about, not a clue what he can do.

I think I'll just stop predicting things now. I have been wrong every time, and I fear that if I predict Nibali he'll fail too

 

[l.Harm]

Still Nibali, never showed real weakness and he'll make the difference this weekend.

 

[daveinzambia]

Shame the first poll wasn't public, so we'll never know most of the Anton groupies.


Hands up if you're still voting for the same person.

Nope. Voted for Wiggins initially and switched now. Purely because you cannot bet on your own team

 

[jsem94]

Nibali easily. I'm rooting for Kessiakoff though.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Nibali 60% Wiggins 30% Mollema 5% Kessiakoff 3% Rodriguez 2%

ofcourse I voted Mollema but I don't believe he will win in the end. Podium would already be superb...been a long time since Breukink.