(Mid Vuelta) Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a Espana?

[greenedge]

If Wiggins wins the Vuelta and Cav goes to Sky, i wonder what the dynamics will be like next year. They both want to do at least some olympic events. Both will be trying to win respective goals at the TDF.

I also want Nibali to focus on the TDF next year ( especially if he wins the Vuelta ). Let Basso focus on the Giro pls. Let their ( brotherhood ) be like that.

 

[c&cfan]

If Wiggins wins the Vuelta and Cav goes to Sky, i wonder what the dynamics will be like next year. They both want to do at least some olympic events. Both will be trying to win respective goals at the TDF.

I also want Nibali to focus on the TDF next year ( especially if he wins the Vuelta ). Let Basso focus on the Giro pls. Let their ( brotherhood ) be like that.

i hope he doesn't do it. If he is man enough to wait 2 more years he can have a better palmares than andy at the end of his (andy's) career. Let Basso do the fifths.

 

[cineteq]

i hope he doesn't do it. If he is man enough to wait 2 more years he can have a better palmares than andy at the end of his (andy's) career. Let Basso do the fifths.

Why wait 2 years when he's the best Liquigas GC rider at this moment? Who cares about building a *palmares* when you can compete and have shot of a win/podium in the best staged-race there is?

 

[Climbing]

Why wait 2 years when he's the best Liquigas GC rider at this moment? Who cares about building a *palmares* when you can compete and have shot of a win/podium in the best staged-race there is?

At the moment it sounds really hard for him to win or podium TdF... well it sounds hard for anyone past Alberto to be serious.
I think he got better and better at climbing lately, but didn't get much better in TTing, which is, for this type of rider, very important to succed.
Another shot at Giro/Vuelta couldn't be bad, but I agree he is more suited for the TdF parcours.

 

[Parrulo]

honestly if nibali wins this years vuelta i want him to go for the giro next year where without contador he will be on the pole position for the win. then he can text himself on the vuelta against a contador with a tour in his legs and next year go all out against him on the tour.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Nibali should ride the Tour if Contador is banned. If Contador is cleared to ride, he should concentrate on the Giro until he wins it, then concentrate on the Tour.

 

[mb2612]

honestly if nibali wins this years vuelta i want him to go for the giro next year where without contador he will be on the pole position for the win. then he can text himself on the vuelta against a contador with a tour in his legs and next year go all out against him on the tour.

I think he needs to look at the routes, and if the Giro has a couple of downhill finishes then he should go for it, otherwise try the tour. I imagine it depends on Basso as well.

 

[Winterfold]

I voted for Wiggo again out of loyalty and national fanboyism (obviously)

but Nibali looks even more certain in the real world.

experienced teams like Liquigas are still able to nick easy seconds from Sky and so far in this Vuelta they are adding up to fail. Plus brad's TT was not 100% - but given the injury you cant really criticise the result.

The Dauphine has been the only major race Ive watched where they havent blown hard won time (and even then there was a bit of panic with echelons in stage 2 or 3).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

And Wiggins dropped about a minute to J-Rod on Allevard. (+30 seconds on Gesink/JvdBroeck

 

[Winterfold]

And Wiggins dropped about a minute to J-Rod on Allevard. (+30 seconds on Gesink/JvdBroeck

I like to think of that as calculated - he was a fair way ahead in GC already.

In an ideal world that is where he would be now, but TTT went wrong and he cannot be expected to deliver a Panzerwagen troubling ITT after a big injury and lay off

 

[spanky wanderlust]

Angliru 2008
1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 5.52.35 (35.65 km/h)
2 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0.42
3 Joaquin Rodriguez (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0.58
4 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Astana 1.05
5 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC - Saxo Bank 1.32
6 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank 1.56
7 Ezequiel Mosquera Miguez (Spa) Xacobeo Galicia 2.18
8 Oliver Zaugg (Swi) Gerolsteiner 2.28
9 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre 2.43
10 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 3.01

i think if levi can survive within about a minute of contador and seven seconds of purito on angliru, then wiggins and nibali should both be able to hold off any of the climbers in this edition.

 

[Mambo95]

The situation as it stands is that there's a lot of largely unknown quantities in the mix. Of those within 2 minutes of the lead, only Nibali really has a track record on the really tough stuff in a GT and that's why he's the favourite. But that record is of well measured and paced performances rather than race breaking exploits.

There are many posters saying this will happen and that will happen with certainty, but to borrow a famous phrase from William Goldman - "Nobody Knows Anything"

 

[greenedge]

And Levi did work for Contador probably as well.

Although it would be good for Nibalis' palmares if he wins the Vuelta this year and then focuses on the Giro next year he should not do that. It would be the logical next step for him to focus on the TDF. It's not as if he has had bad results there either.

 

[Parrulo]

And Levi did work for Contador probably as well.

Although it would be good for Nibalis' palmares if he wins the Vuelta this year and then focuses on the Giro next year he should not do that. It would be the logical next step for him to focus on the TDF. It's not as if he has had bad results there either.

i think you don't really understand how important the giro is for an italian. the italians won't consider you a all time great and worship you like they worship coppi and pantani unless you have a giro.

 

[Swede1]

i think you don't really understand how important the giro is for an italian. the italians won't consider you a all time great and worship you like they worship coppi and pantani unless you have a giro.

True. But the Tour is probly better suited to him.

 

[Parrulo]

True. But the Tour is probly better suited to him.

nibali seems to handle steep mountains fairly well. all he needs to have a very big chance at winning the giro is a few more k of ITT and a couple of tough downhill finishes.

besides i would much rather be a double vuelta winner and giro winner then a guy who got to the podium at the tour a couple times.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I like to think of that as calculated - he was a fair way ahead in GC already.

In an ideal world that is where he would be now, but TTT went wrong and he cannot be expected to deliver a Panzerwagen troubling ITT after a big injury and lay off

it was calculated that he would drop off the pace of Kern? Have you seen the stage? He was right with that group and just simply couldn't follow anymore without any attack. That's dropping, not calculating

 

[theyoungest]

i think if levi can survive within about a minute of contador and seven seconds of purito on angliru, then wiggins and nibali should both be able to hold off any of the climbers in this edition.

Levi is certainly the same kind of time trialist/steady pace climber as Wiggins, but with a bit more climbing talent to fall back on. And he set the pace for Contador early on.

it was calculated that he would drop off the pace of Kern? Have you seen the stage? He was right with that group and just simply couldn't follow anymore without any attack. That's dropping, not calculating

Hence the wink, humorous fella.

 

[Fergoose]

I picked Van den Broeck originally (well, once it became clear he was in a suitable condition to race) and will still be cheering him on. I think he’d have a chance of overhauling a couple of riders if he was two minutes down and sitting in say 5th, but overhauling 11 folk above him? I can’t see it. I’m really hoping he gives it an effort in the next 48hrs rather than meekly trying to preserve a “precious” top ten finish.

I think Wiggins has an outside chance overall if he is less than 30 seconds down after Angliru (but I can’t see that being the case). I actually have Kessiakoff and Mollema as my favourites now although I’ve only seen them in this race. Also, I’ve no idea how any of them will do on Angliru (I doubt even they know how they’ll do).

Mollema - he is always looking to respond to any attack, is able to pick up time bonuses with a burst of speed and Rabobank look the pick of the teams, with some real strength in depth to help him out going uphill. He also seems comfortable on varying gradients, including 10%+. Plus, out of the top 5 in the GC he lost the most in the Time Trial, but is still in the frame overall, indicating he has possibly had the best/most consistent climbing performances of any of the top contenders (and its climbs that are now going to decide this). Despite this I pick…

Kessiakoff - totally left field but he looked completely fresh at the end of his Time Trial and has been conserving his energy perfectly with a fairly anonymous performance. There is nothing in his pre-2011 cycling history (road or mountain) that I can see to suggest he is capable of pulling this off at 31 years of age, but he is my pick now.

I hope I’m wrong as I’d prefer a rider with a bit of a track record (like Nibali, VdB, Wiggins & even Mollema) to win rather than a bolt from the blue (specifically if it's light blue and yellow).

1. Kessiakoff
2. Mollema
3. Nibali
4. Cobo
5. Van den Broeck
6. Wiggins
7. Zubeldia

 

[mb2612]

I picked Van den Broeck originally (well, once it became clear he was in a suitable condition to race) and will still be cheering him on. I think he’d have a chance of overhauling a couple of riders if he was two minutes down and sitting in say 5th, but overhauling 11 folk above him? I can’t see it. I’m really hoping he gives it an effort in the next 48hrs rather than meekly trying to preserve a “precious” top ten finish.

I think Wiggins has an outside chance overall if he is less than 30 seconds down after Angliru (but I can’t see that being the case). I actually have Kessiakoff and Mollema as my favourites now although I’ve only seen them in this race. Also, I’ve no idea how any of them will do on Angliru (I doubt even they know how they’ll do).

Mollema - he is always looking to respond to any attack, is able to pick up time bonuses with a burst of speed and Rabobank look the pick of the teams, with some real strength in depth to help him out going uphill. He also seems comfortable on varying gradients, including 10%+. Plus, out of the top 5 in the GC he lost the most in the Time Trial, but is still in the frame overall, indicating he has possibly had the best/most consistent climbing performances of any of the top contenders (and its climbs that are now going to decide this). Despite this I pick…

Kessiakoff - totally left field but he looked completely fresh at the end of his Time Trial and has been conserving his energy perfectly with a fairly anonymous performance. There is nothing in his pre-2011 cycling history (road or mountain) that I can see to suggest he is capable of pulling this off at 31 years of age, but he is my pick now.

I hope I’m wrong as I’d prefer a rider with a bit of a track record (like Nibali, VdB, Wiggins & even Mollema) to win rather than a bolt from the blue (specifically if it's light blue and yellow).

1. Kessiakoff
2. Mollema
3. Nibali
4. Cobo
5. Van den Broeck
6. Wiggins
7. Zubeldia

Out of interest, why not Nibali?

 

[roundabout]

i think if levi can survive within about a minute of contador and seven seconds of purito on angliru, then wiggins and nibali should both be able to hold off any of the climbers in this edition.

Even with the lost weight Wiggins is 4-5 kilos (or even more) up on Nibali and Leipheimer.

 

[Griotto]

I picked Van den Broeck originally (well, once it became clear he was in a suitable condition to race) and will still be cheering him on. I think he’d have a chance of overhauling a couple of riders if he was two minutes down and sitting in say 5th, but overhauling 11 folk above him? I can’t see it. I’m really hoping he gives it an effort in the next 48hrs rather than meekly trying to preserve a “precious” top ten finish.

I think Wiggins has an outside chance overall if he is less than 30 seconds down after Angliru (but I can’t see that being the case). I actually have Kessiakoff and Mollema as my favourites now although I’ve only seen them in this race. Also, I’ve no idea how any of them will do on Angliru (I doubt even they know how they’ll do).

Mollema - he is always looking to respond to any attack, is able to pick up time bonuses with a burst of speed and Rabobank look the pick of the teams, with some real strength in depth to help him out going uphill. He also seems comfortable on varying gradients, including 10%+. Plus, out of the top 5 in the GC he lost the most in the Time Trial, but is still in the frame overall, indicating he has possibly had the best/most consistent climbing performances of any of the top contenders (and its climbs that are now going to decide this). Despite this I pick…

Kessiakoff - totally left field but he looked completely fresh at the end of his Time Trial and has been conserving his energy perfectly with a fairly anonymous performance. There is nothing in his pre-2011 cycling history (road or mountain) that I can see to suggest he is capable of pulling this off at 31 years of age, but he is my pick now.

I hope I’m wrong as I’d prefer a rider with a bit of a track record (like Nibali, VdB, Wiggins & even Mollema) to win rather than a bolt from the blue (specifically if it's light blue and yellow).

1. Kessiakoff
2. Mollema
3. Nibali
4. Cobo
5. Van den Broeck
6. Wiggins
7. Zubeldia

Nice pick

Well, being a world class mountainbiker have prooved to be a good foundation for doing good on the road. But we are yet to see this weekend how fresh everyone are...

 

[Descender]

Cobo has this in the bag.

 

[Scirea]

My man Cobo is looking good. Go for the killer punch tomorrow!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Cobo is looking strong now