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Hey everyone, im kind of new to cycling (following only for about a year), and without Le Manie, what are the chances for guys like Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel to survives Cipressa and Poggio if Cannondale, Trek, BMC go full gas on them?
 
Sep 14, 2011
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Dragontearz said:
Hey everyone, im kind of new to cycling (following only for about a year), and without Le Manie, what are the chances for guys like Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel to survives Cipressa and Poggio if Cannondale, Trek, BMC go full gas on them?

You said you had only been following it for a week the other day.
 
Sep 14, 2011
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Dragontearz said:
Please, i dont know who this bloke is, but its definitely not me :) anyway... Can you ask the question, so we can have a REAL debate?

Apologies for my innocent mistake. Welcome to the forum!
 
Dragontearz said:
Hey everyone, im kind of new to cycling (following only for about a year), and without Le Manie, what are the chances for guys like Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel to survives Cipressa and Poggio if Cannondale, Trek, BMC go full gas on them?

Well firstly Cav has won MSR so that's an indication he can get over the poggio. It completely depends on the race but if Cannondale have enough riders on the front when they hit the Poggio to go full gas Trek and BMC are unlikely to help or need to help.

The sprinters know full well that they need to be in probably the first 15-20 riders when they hit the Poggio to get over and keep on/get back on so there will be a lot of jockeying for position. Both Cav and Greipel have the ability on a good day to do it and close any gap that is formed if they have teammates around them.



If Cannondale plan to break it there they run the risk of taking guys like Degenkolb and Ciolek with them, and both of those guys could cause Sagan a headache. Sagan's best chance is to be in a break that hits the Poggio first and hope they can maintain a gap when they get to the finish.



Oh, and Kittel isn't riding MSR.
 
King Boonen said:
Well firstly Cav has won MSR so that's an indication he can get over the poggio. It completely depends on the race but if Cannondale have enough riders on the front when they hit the Poggio to go full gas Trek and BMC are unlikely to help or need to help.

The sprinters know full well that they need to be in probably the first 15-20 riders when they hit the Poggio to get over and keep on/get back on so there will be a lot of jockeying for position. Both Cav and Greipel have the ability on a good day to do it and close any gap that is formed if they have teammates around them.



If Cannondale plan to break it there they run the risk of taking guys like Degenkolb and Ciolek with them, and both of those guys could cause Sagan a headache. Sagan's best chance is to be in a break that hits the Poggio first and hope they can maintain a gap when they get to the finish.



Oh, and Kittel isn't riding MSR.

Like you said, if Sagan gets someone like Wurf, Moser or Formolo to smash it over the Cipressa/Poggio it could possibly shake off Cav and maybe Greipel (unlikely though looking at his TDU climbing form). The other thing is, like you also said, it will bring Degenkolb along with riders like Ciolek, Matthews, Haussler and Boonen, who is looking very ominous. If he makes it over the Cipressa with some combination of Trentin, Martin, Kwiatkowski, Renshaw or Petacchi, look out.

Will OPQS be willing to back Boonen if things get too hot for Cav?
 
Jul 13, 2011
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Last year the problem for Sagan was that he had to do all the work after the climb, much like Cancellara did 2 years ago.
If Sagan gets in a group with Boonen it is a bad situation for him, he has to give it everything to stay away, but Boonen doesn't, as if they are caught then Cav has a great chance to win.

The more I think about it, the less I think Sagan will win. If he gets away with Cancellara, Degenkolb, Gerrans or Gilbert then he has a great chance, otherwise I think everyone will make him do all the work and they will be caught by the nowadays pretty good climbing sprinters.
 
42x16ss said:
Like you said, if Sagan gets someone like Wurf, Moser or Formolo to smash it over the Cipressa/Poggio it could possibly shake off Cav and maybe Greipel (unlikely though looking at his TDU climbing form). The other thing is, like you also said, it will bring Degenkolb along with riders like Ciolek, Matthews, Haussler and Boonen, who is looking very ominous. If he makes it over the Cipressa with some combination of Trentin, Martin, Kwiatkowski, Renshaw or Petacchi, look out.

Will OPQS be willing to back Boonen if things get too hot for Cav?

I'm not sure they need to back Boonen in the tradition sense. Tell him to get in the break or be on the front at the Poggio and technically he doesn't need any help, he'll be the strongest sprinter in the group or Cav will be there, although they would do well to send one man with him if he did get in the break. It looks like a cold, wet one though so Boonen is rapidly falling off the radar.

With regards to Sagan, I actually think MSR is one of the hardest monuments for him to win, if not the hardest. The climbs aren't really hard enough to shake off all the sprinters who could possibly beat him and he doesn't have the ability to ride away and keep a gap on the Poggio. He really needs to get lucky and end up in a very select group where no-one can match him in the sprint and hope the peloton don't catch up.
 
NUFCrichard said:
Last year the problem for Sagan was that he had to do all the work after the climb, much like Cancellara did 2 years ago.

Unfortunately for Sagan that's always going to be the case for him in any break he gets in during the classics. It's the same for Cav in the GT's, Argos (Giant) and Lotto (and the rest) know OPQS will work so they don't have to do as much.

I'm worried Sagan could become the next EBH. He can sprint but not well enough to beat the pure sprinters, and he can climb the short sharp hills but not well enough to beat guys like Cancellara.

But lets be fair, he's a young guy. Even if he doesn't win one this year he has a long road ahead of him.
 
Aug 4, 2010
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King Boonen said:
Unfortunately for Sagan that's always going to be the case for him in any break he gets in during the classics. It's the same for Cav in the GT's, Argos (Giant) and Lotto (and the rest) know OPQS will work so they don't have to do as much.

I'm worried Sagan could become the next EBH. He can sprint but not well enough to beat the pure sprinters, and he can climb the short sharp hills but not well enough to beat guys like Cancellara.

But lets be fair, he's a young guy. Even if he doesn't win one this year he has a long road ahead of him.

He is better puncher than Cancellara.He is worse on cobbles if Canc has a superform (which he had in 2013).
I expect different outcome in this RVV,still dont know what to expect from him in Roubaix tho.