Milano - Sanremo: March 20, 2021

[Red Rick]

Maybe they won Roubaix more times than MSR because their skillset was more suited toward Roubaix than MSR.

And Roubaix has "out of nowhere" winners just as often as MSR. Out of last 9 editions, I would say only 4 were won by big favourites.

Weak cobbles era.

 

[SafeBet]

Honestly I feel like luck plays a role in both races but in different ways.
In PR luck can dictate who loses the race (like for instance if you puncture right at the beginning of Arenberg and a group of 30 strong riders goes).
In MSR luck can dictate who wins the race, because everything is decided in the final 10 km and sometimes race dynamics are completely out of riders control unless they are absolutely dominant.

I believe MSR is harder to win than PR in contemporary cycling.

 

[Volderke]

I believe MSR is harder to win than PR in contemporary cycling.

While I get your point that it's easier to win Roubaix if you are the strongest, I look at it in another way:

Since 1990, 21 riders have won Roubaix (so 9 wins are by a multiple winner)
27 riders have won 32 editions of San Remo (so more riders have won 1 edition, fewer riders (Zabel!) have won multiple times.

So statistically, the chance of winning MSR is larger, and thus winning MSR is easier.

 

[topcat]

It's easier to win MSR because the race actually takes place. Otherwise, it's easier to target PR and win it.

 

[Billie]

Most 'surprising' winers (O'grady, Van Summeren, Hayman) in Roubaix are from the break tho. Only monument where the early break can actually result in a victory.

Gilbert was a surprise winner not from the break. Degenkolb, GVA, Terpstra, Sagan where all part of the main favourites?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Most 'surprising' winers (O'grady...

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[Leinster]

wouldnt compare MSR to roubaix.

Boonen and Cancellara won 7x roubaix bewteen them.
They (cancellara only) won 1 MSR.

Different ballgame. Big favorites far more likely to win PR or RVV then msr

That varies generation to generation, though. Zabel won 4 MSRs and then Freire won 3 (Zabel celebrating early on Freire's first one) from 97 to 2010. But we haven't had a repeat winner at MSR since. And there are a lot of one-off winners in both races across that whole period.

The other thing about MSR is that for a lot of the winners, (Cipo, Cav, Zabel, Pettacchi, Demarre, Zabel, and in the future possibly Ewan, Bennett if he can ever survive the Poggio, Gaviria) it's the only monument they can realistically target. Anyone who can win any of the others, usually has a chance somewhere else too.

We also seem to just be in a very open era for monument winners. Gilbert, Valverde and Nibali are the only current riders on more than 2 monument wins (though Sagan also has 3 Worlds) and even at that, Phil (2009) and Bala (2006!!!) got their first one a long time ago.

 

[Leinster]

Most 'surprising' winers (O'grady, Van Summeren, Hayman) in Roubaix are from the break tho. Only monument where the early break can actually result in a victory.

Gilbert was a surprise winner not from the break. Degenkolb, GVA, Terpstra, Sagan where all part of the main favourites?

Terpstra wouldn't have been on most people's list of favourites before the race, except in the "Any Quickstep rider could get away while everyone watches Boonen" qualifier sense that would make Jungels a retrospective favourite for LBL.

 

[Bolder]

Honestly I feel like luck plays a role in both races but in different ways.
In PR luck can dictate who loses the race (like for instance if you puncture right at the beginning of Arenberg and a group of 30 strong riders goes).
In MSR luck can dictate who wins the race, because everything is decided in the final 10 km and sometimes race dynamics are completely out of riders control unless they are absolutely dominant.

I believe MSR is harder to win than PR in contemporary cycling.

Maybe put it this way: MSR is an easier race, but harder to win because of that.

 

[Anderis]

At first I was about to say that both races are equally difficult to win because both take place once in a year (no longer the case, it seems ) and both attract the best riders of their own specialty.

But then I realised that the range of riders that can possibly target and win MSR is possibly bigger than that of PR and includes all types of riders from Cavendish to Nibali, which would probably mean MSR is more difficult to win?

 

[Blanco]

wouldnt compare MSR to roubaix.

Boonen and Cancellara won 7x roubaix bewteen them.
They (cancellara only) won 1 MSR.

Different ballgame. Big favorites far more likely to win PR or RVV then msr

Hayman and Vansummeren weren't that long ago...
Zabel and Freire won 7 MSR between them...
Boonen was never a Poggio type of rider, and Cancellara always had to deal with faster finishers...

 

[Blanco]

Terpstra wouldn't have been on most people's list of favourites before the race, except in the "Any Quickstep rider could get away while everyone watches Boonen" qualifier sense that would make Jungels a retrospective favourite for LBL.

Niki Terpstra was one of the best 'pave' riders of his generation, as Tom Boonen said...

 

[OlavEH]

Different ballgame. Big favorites far more likely to win PR or RVV then msr

RVV (or at least the current route) is probably the monument per date mostly suited to the strongest riders? Have we seen any tactical wins there since Nick Nuyens? And before that Stjin Devolder? Can't really remember if one or both of his victories were tactical wins or if he truly was of the the strongest or THE strongest rider.

For PR I see at least three versions since 2007 which were clearly tactical wins (2007, 2011 and 2016). I don't think any of these winners were among the very strongest riders that day, but benifited from making the correct breakway or attacking at just the right moment.

This could also be related to the "big six" discussion in the forum the last couple of weeks. IMO races like RVV, E3, Strade Bianche and perhaps LBL are the best suited for the strongest riders and most difficult to beat Ala, the two Vans and the two Slovenians. While PR and to an even bigger degree MSR and GW are open to more riders. Not sure about AGR.

 

[Red Rick]

Vlaanderen, on the new route, has lost a large amount of it's tactical possibilities and now the strongest guys just duke it out 100% of the time. Same with Liege and Il Lombardia.

The different nature of Roubaix and Sanremo gives two vastly different profiles of surprise winners as well. In Sanremo the traits that make a surprise winner tend to still be explosive riders, good finishers and puncheurs, so you still get reasonably prolific winners.

Roubaix on the other hand, is such a race of attrition, which in turn is such a rare race that lends itself for riders to excel there and nowhere else. In a similar way, Liege and Lombardia don't really get dank winners cause even when they have a surprise winner, it's a well known climber/GC rider with a string of results i.e. Mollema or Pinot.

 

[jaylew]

Terpstra wouldn't have been on most people's list of favourites before the race, except in the "Any Quickstep rider could get away while everyone watches Boonen" qualifier sense that would make Jungels a retrospective favourite for LBL.

I completely disagree with this take. Terpstra was on the podium the year before he won it and was 5th the year before that. A guy that was 5th and 3rd in his two previous Roubaix before the win is a favorite, especially when racing for the best cobbled classics team in the world.

Plus, he backed it up with a ton of results in cobbled classics - you can't put him in with Vansummeren and Hayman. They are the only 2 winners of the last 12 PR that weren't one of the top 10 favorites.

 

[OlavEH]

Same with Liege and Il Lombardia.

How do you consider the new route in LBL compared to the old one? And Lombardia now compared to before they added Muro di Sormano?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

....Lombardia don't really get dank winners cause even when they have a surprise winner, it's a well known climber/GC rider with a string of results i.e. Mollema or Pinot.

 

[jaylew]

For PR I see at least three versions since 2007 which were clearly tactical wins (2007, 2011 and 2016). I don't think any of these winners were among the very strongest riders that day, but benifited from making the correct breakway or attacking at just the right moment.

How can you say Hayman wasn't one of the strongest riders in 2016? If you made it in that final group of 5, you were clearly one of the strongest. It's still by far my favorite Roubaix - all 5 guys attacking in the final kilometers was so exciting. That end was a complete slugfest - not about tactics. And remember, Hayman was in an early break and had been working all day. You could easily argue he was THE strongest that day. He obviously wasn't as strong as the others over his career but on that particular day he was absolutely one of the strongest if not THE strongest guy in the race.

 

[Sciatic]

At first I was about to say that both races are equally difficult to win because both take place once in a year (no longer the case, it seems ) and both attract the best riders of their own specialty.

But then I realised that the range of riders that can possibly target and win MSR is possibly bigger than that of PR and includes all types of riders from Cavendish to Nibali, which would probably mean MSR is more difficult to win?

Statistically, it would make sense that a greater number of riders would win MSR during, say, a 3decade period of time, because the pool of riders who could realistically compete for the win (and enter the race) is larger for MSR than for RVV. But in shorter spans of time “surprise” winners from breaks or a singularly well-suited rider for a stretch of years e.g., Freire, will skew the results.
Maybe the question of “which is harder to win” is just going to depend on the rider and their skill set.

 

[Red Rick]

How do you consider the new route in LBL compared to the old one? And Lombardia now compared to before they added Muro di Sormano?

LBL and Lombardia are much better now, but still very predictable in where the main move happens, etc.

 

[Sciatic]

How can you say Hayman wasn't one of the strongest riders in 2016? If you made it in that final group of 5, you were clearly one of the strongest. It's still by far my favorite Roubaix - all 5 guys attacking in the final kilometers was so exciting. That end was a complete slugfest - not about tactics. And remember, Hayman was in an early break and had been working all day. You could easily argue he was THE strongest that day. He obviously wasn't as strong as the others over his career but on that particular day he was absolutely one of the strongest if not THE strongest guy in the race.

And Hayman had strong rides in Roubaix previously, though it didn’t always show up in his results. I see his win as different than VanSummeran’s.

 

[Sciatic]

Niki Terpstra was one of the best 'pave' riders of his generation, as Tom Boonen said...

But that Roubaix win still happened because he wasn’t a marked rider, at least to the extent that Canc and Boonen in their prime of their careers, in that elite finishing group. That was such a disappointing finish because I so wanted to see those two go head to head in the finale. But that’s exactly what Terpstra (or the DS) took advantage of—it was a very smart play and deserving of much credit.

 

[Red Rick]

Terpstra is a class cobbles rider.

Vansummeren has a bunch of Roubaix top 10 results as well.

 

[OlavEH]

LBL and Lombardia are much better now, but still very predictable in where the main move happens, etc.

Agree, but I was also thinking in terms if the route changes made it more or less difficult for a tactical win. Especially regarding LBL?

Lombardia would be interesting to see with another route for a couple of years. Either finishing in Bergamo with a revised route from that being used in 2016, or perhaps even in Lecco if they could create a better route than they did 10 years ago.

 

[Red Rick]

Agree, but I was also thinking in terms if the route changes made it more or less difficult for a tactical win. Especially regarding LBL?

Lombardia would be interesting to see with another route for a couple of years. Either finishing in Bergamo with a revised route from that being used in 2016, or perhaps even in Lecco if they could create a better route than they did 10 years ago.

Lombardia with 2016 route would hands down be the best monument most years.