Milano - Sanremo: March 20, 2021

[jaylew]

Terpstra wouldn't have been on most people's list of favourites before the race, except in the "Any Quickstep rider could get away while everyone watches Boonen" qualifier sense that would make Jungels a retrospective favourite for LBL.

Hmm...pretty much all the predictions form this forum had Terpstra as a favorite, the number one QS favorite, ahead of Boonen in fact. Ok I didn't go through the entire thread but these are the first prediction posts I saw:

Fixed a big error in OP

** Sir Brad
*Cancellara, Vanmarcke
****GVA, Kristoff, Terpstra
*** Stybar, Boonen, Degenkolb, Paolini, Vandenbergh, Sagan
**Demare, langeveld, Phinney, Van Keirsbulck
*Hushovd, Pozzato, EBH, Chavanel, Gaudin, Turgot, Leukemans

1. Cancellara
2. Vanmarcke
3. Terpstra
4. Thomas
5. Stybar
6. Boonen
7. Sagan
8. Devolder
9. Van Avermaet

10a. Vandenbergh
10b.Kristoff

Hard to believe,but its OPQS race to lose.I dont want to underestimate Kwia,but i dont think he can win one of the ardennes,so omega needs! to win this.

Terpstra ftw.

Contenders (based completely on my own opinion)
*Cancellara, Vanmarcke
****GVA, Kristoff, Terpstra
*** Stybar, Boonen, Degenkolb, Paolini, Vandenbergh, Sagan
**Demare, langeveld, Phinney, Van Keirsbulck
*Hushovd, Pozzato, EBH, Chavanel, Gaudin, Turgot, Leukemans

Darkhorses: Devolder, Jerome, Offredo, Le Bon, Boom, probably others.

 

[Anderis]

And Hayman had strong rides in Roubaix previously, though it didn’t always show up in his results. I see his win as different than VanSummeran’s.

Van Summeren also had strong rides in Roubaix previously and he was clearly the strongest rider of a very large break (which IIRC didn't form at the beginning of the race but around Arenberg) and won despite losing pressure in his tyre in the last few kilometers.

 

[Red Rick]

Refreshing to see Wuyts being a chauvinistic * again.

Jumbo should have sent Roglic to help Van Aert in MSR. Suuuuuuure.

 

[Anderis]

Hmm...pretty much all the predictions form this forum had Terpstra as a favorite, the number one QS favorite, ahead of Boonen in fact. Ok I didn't go through the entire thread but these are the first prediction posts I saw:

Pretty much nobody gave him the maximum numbers of stars and if anyone suggested he was going to win, it was because he was part of the strongest team, not the strongest rider.

So he was in a group of riders expected to do well/an outside favourite but not the biggest favourite and certainly not comparable to Van der Poel or Van Aert.

 

[roundabout]

How do you consider the new route in LBL compared to the old one? And Lombardia now compared to before they added Muro di Sormano?

I think Civiglio is the focal point now.

And while it was the right idea to change the finish in Liege, there isn't much space for tactical maneuvering after RAF for a rider who may not be the strongest as probably it will be the usual tactic for the strongest riders to continue to put the pressure on on the climb after RAF, while the descent does not seem difficult enough technically to make decisive moves (unless it's Mohoric)

 

[Bonimenier]

Refreshing to see Wuyts being a chauvinistic * again.

Jumbo should have sent Roglic to help Van Aert in MSR. Suuuuuuure.

Compared to his comments from last year, these ones actually make some sense. If JV (or LTS/DQS/APF) has one more rider after the Poggio a groupsprint is very likely to happen. It didn't necessarily had to be Roglic, but I suppose he is the only one we know for sure would have still been there.

Edit: only just remembered he crashed and he probably is still recovering.

 

[jaylew]

Pretty much nobody gave him the maximum numbers of stars and if anyone suggested he was going to win, it was because he was part of the strongest team, not the strongest rider.

So he was in a group of riders expected to do well/an outside favourite but not the biggest favourite and certainly not comparable to Van der Poel or Van Aert.

Yep, the strongest rider from the strongest team who was on the podium the year before. Clearly a favorite, not an outside favorite. Maybe we're arguing semantics...

 

[Red Rick]

Compared to his comments from last year, these ones actually make some sense. If JV (or LTS/DQS/APF) has one more rider after the Poggio a groupsprint is very likely to happen. It didn't necessarily had to be Roglic, but I suppose he is the only one we know for sure would have still been there.

Edit: only just remembered he crashed and he probably is still recovering.

If anything you use Roglic to cover a move like like Stuyvens.

But MSR is such a nervous race and strategic wiggleroom is so small it's not worth it IMO

 

[Bonimenier]

If anything you use Roglic to cover a move like like Stuyvens.

But MSR is such a nervous race and strategic wiggleroom is so small it's not worth it IMO

That, or if needed he can chase the last 2km which noone did now.

I wouldn't have send him either, but there is a point in that the team surrounding van Aert was underwhelming, to say the least. The guy won the year before, was 1 of the 2 big favourites and somehow he is pretty much the only guy completely isolated at the top of the Cipressa. That's just pathetic for one of the three best teams in cycling.

 

[Anderis]

Yep, the strongest rider from the strongest team who was on the podium the year before. Clearly a favorite, not an outside favorite. Maybe we're arguing semantics...

Maybe.

As I said, every single person who gave stars, rated at least 2 riders higher than Terpstra. So while you could see a reasonable chance for him to win, he was certainly not the main favourite.

 

[Netserk]

I think the two main parameters to evaluate a Classic route are how selective it is and how complicated it is. Roubaix is the most complicated race as the main selection and the winning move can happen numerous places and in numerous ways. Flèche is about the least complicated (major) race. The new Amstel route (since 2017) has increased its complication. Bottlenecks are what makes a route simple - a selective part of the route that dominates the rest. While the Poggio is the most selective part of Milano–Sanremo, it is not selective enough to completely dominate the run-in, unlike the last hill in San Sebastian that has mostly ruined the race since 2014.

Edit: I guess you could phrase it as how open or closed a race is, but I think that is a function of the two mentioned parameters, as a closed race is both selective and simple.

 

[Netserk]

I think it is meaningful to have randomness as its own parameter. Crashes and punctures make a race more random, but the randomness of Scheldeprijs does not make it complicated.

 

[Red Rick]

I think the two main parameters to evaluate a Classic route are how selective it is and how complicated it is. Roubaix is the most complicated race as the main selection and the winning move can happen numerous places and in numerous ways. Flèche is about the least complicated (major) race. The new Amstel route (since 2017) has increased its complication. Bottlenecks are what makes a route simple - a selective part of the route that dominates the rest. While the Poggio is the most selective part of Milano–Sanremo, it is not selective enough to completely dominate the run-in, unlike the last hill in San Sebastian that has mostly ruined the race since 2014.

Edit: I guess you could phrase it as how open or closed a race is, but I think that is a function of the two mentioned parameters, as a closed race is both selective and simple.

Good way to put it. Amstel and Liege have righfully moved away from having the bottleneck in the final km, but especially Liege still has very clear bottlenecks. Il Lombardia has a similar thing. The racing is fairly predictable, but from the Muro onwards the racing is pretty great.

Meanwhile De Ronde doesn't really have a clear bottleneck, but it still has the option for the strongest in the race to wait until the final Kwaremont/Pater combo, but at least it's not really punitive to top riders being aggressive before that.

 

[Netserk]

The new Ronde route is more selective and also less complicated than the old route, but it is not a simple route, just medium complicated.

 

[gregrowlerson]

In response to discussions regarding the hardest monument to win: I think that if you take a young rider with a good all around skill set who hasn't won one yet, but wants to and believes that he can win them all, and you offer him the opportunity to cross one off his list for free, he'll choose MSR.

 

[Red Rick]

In response to discussions regarding the hardest monument to win: I think that if you take a young rider with a good all around skill set who hasn't won one yet, but wants to and believes that he can win them all, and you offer him the opportunity to cross one off his list for free, he'll choose MSR.

I'm not quite certain of that.

Currently, I think while MSR has the most randomness, I think i we look at all rider who might have a shot at winning them all, they're all gonna be hilly riders with a great sprint who should normally struggle the most in Lombardia on the current route.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Refreshing to see Wuyts being a chauvinistic * again.

Jumbo should have sent Roglic to help Van Aert in MSR. Suuuuuuure.

Nothing compared to the meltdown that RAI had because of Ganna working for his teammates and them not getting a decent result.
Ganna himself posted afterwards that he had Flu symptoms the days before the race and that they decided that it would be best if he'd be working as a domestique and pretty much said that

 

[SafeBet]

Nothing compared to the meltdown that RAI had because of Ganna working for his teammates and them not getting a decent result.

Seriously how can you still listen to those clowns? I mean Pancani and Martinello were chauvinistic but at least competent enough to deliver some interesting broadcasts. Now it's dreadful.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Seriously how can you still listen to those clowns? I mean Pancani and Martinello were chauvinistic but at least competent enough to deliver some interesting broadcasts. Now it's dreadful.

I only watch the actual race (if Pancani is commentating). Pancani is good and if you put someone like Saligari as the 2nd guy it's decent and you can listen to it. Pancani and Giada Borgato are by far the best duo that they have, I hope that they let her commentate lots of races with Pancani because she's by far the best 2nd commentator that they have.
I won't even mention the mess that was the commentary during the last Giro, even during the the 2019 Giro it was really bad, chauvinistic and filled with digs at Roglic.

 

[Leinster]

I'm not quite certain of that.

Currently, I think while MSR has the most randomness, I think i we look at all rider who might have a shot at winning them all, they're all gonna be hilly riders with a great sprint who should normally struggle the most in Lombardia on the current route.

I think this is the key. There are plenty of historical Lombardia winners who would've had no chance on a route with the Sormano on it.

And I think Greg's phrasing of "crossing it off the list" is an important one. A rider can have all the talent and all the attributes necessary to win MSR, do everything right every time he rides it, but still come up just short. See Sagan, Gilbert, Ewan, Matthews. If someone told a young, all-5 contender (like, say, Hirschi) "here's your gilt-edged, 100% guaranteed Monument-of-your-choosing win on a plate, and you can earn the rest based on your abilities" picking MSR might be the smart choice because on pretty much all the others, if you target them, you can succeed eventually.

Not that there isn't some randomness to the others, like Criquielion never winning Liege, but winning Flanders; or vanAvermaet winning Roubaix, but not Flanders; but you do have Argentin winning Liege, Lombardia, and Flanders, but just never getting it right in San Remo.

 

[SafeBet]

I only watch the actual race (if Pancani is commentating). Pancani is good and if you put someone like Saligari as the 2nd guy it's decent and you can listen to it. Pancani and Giada Borgato are by far the best duo that they have, I hope that they let her commentate lots of races with Pancani because she's by far the best 2nd commentator that they have.
I won't even mention the mess that was the commentary during the last Giro, even during the the 2019 Giro it was really bad, chauvinistic and filled with digs at Roglic.

Yeah Borgato is very good, but sadly I don't think she'll get many opportunities apart from female races.
I miss Cassani.

 

[Red Rick]

I think this is the key. There are plenty of historical Lombardia winners who would've had no chance on a route with the Sormano on it.

And I think Greg's phrasing of "crossing it off the list" is an important one. A rider can have all the talent and all the attributes necessary to win MSR, do everything right every time he rides it, but still come up just short. See Sagan, Gilbert, Ewan, Matthews. If someone told a young, all-5 contender (like, say, Hirschi) "here's your gilt-edged, 100% guaranteed Monument-of-your-choosing win on a plate, and you can earn the rest based on your abilities" picking MSR might be the smart choice because on pretty much all the others, if you target them, you can succeed eventually.

Not that there isn't some randomness to the others, like Criquielion never winning Liege, but winning Flanders; or vanAvermaet winning Roubaix, but not Flanders; but you do have Argentin winning Liege, Lombardia, and Flanders, but just never getting it right in San Remo.

If we convert winning probabilities and add em up I think only Sagan is really running more than a full MSR under expected value.

Obviously it depends on rider characteristics and race routes and dynamics, but I think for most riders the race to cross off for free is either Roubaix or Lombardia 90% of the time as routes currently are. Rider would just have to roll with maybe never being a >20% fave for MSR cause capturing the range from Lombardia to Roubaix is too hard.

The only type of riders where I might take MSR is if you try to win all 5 monuments as a TT/climber hybrid like Wiggins/Thomas/Dumoulin and forget all about GTs, but those types never strive for five.

 

[Leinster]

If we convert winning probabilities and add em up I think only Sagan is really running more than a full MSR under expected value.

Obviously it depends on rider characteristics and race routes and dynamics, but I think for most riders the race to cross off for free is either Roubaix or Lombardia 90% of the time as routes currently are. Rider would just have to roll with maybe never being a >20% fave for MSR cause capturing the range from Lombardia to Roubaix is too hard.

The only type of riders where I might take MSR is if you try to win all 5 monuments as a TT/climber hybrid like Wiggins/Thomas/Dumoulin and forget all about GTs, but those types never strive for five.

I think young Gilbert should've been able to get it done there. But yeah, I don't think he has the kick any more.

Taking the outlier is the obvious other approach, but I think in the scenario proposed it assumes that the imaginary rider in question is talented enough to win all 5 on merits (my example of Hirschi as the talented young all-rounder most likely to be a future drive-for-fiver, is obviously someone you would think would struggle to win Roubaix on his own merits, and someone like Pedersen at the other end of the scale is obviously unlikely ever to win Liege or Lombardia).

 

[Leinster]

I hope Wanty bring van der Hoorn to all the Grand Tours so he can be in the break after every rest day #TacoTuesday

Well ***. WTF do I know?

 

[RedheadDane]

Well ***. WTF do I know?

He can still do that...

But, you don't really know much, do you?