I liked his attack, it was kinda similar to Cort in WC 2017. He went all in and honestly, it was very close. The elastic could easily have snapped.
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He was the only one who caught Alaphilippe, probably the best puncher in the world right now, while no one else could. I'd say that is pretty impressive for "sprinter"hammerthaim said:If Sagan can't get a chance to recover after a max effort (Poggio) he isn't a great sprinter in comparison to everyone else. It's shown in San Remo every year but also in a lot of other races earlier in his career.
SafeBet said:Let's check results then:yaco said:SafeBet said:He's not the second fastest of that group after a long hard race. Check his results in the Classics. You'll see for yourself.yaco said:Trentin is tactically naive at the end of a big race - he was the second fastest in that group, so no need to attack with 2kms to go.
Trentin has only been a leader for two seasons so previous seasons are irrelevant - Sagan is the quickest of the final group then Trentin, Alaphalippe,Kwiatkowski and Naesen who are evenly matched - The fact is it was a crazy and unnecessary move by Trentin to attack - The team must be pulling their hair out.
EC 2018: wins a 4 men sprint after Cimolai leads him out (only fast guy there was VdP).
Gent - Wevelgem 2018: 7th out of 19 in the winning group (outsprinted by Sagan and Naesen among others).
Ronde 2017: 9th out of 14 in the group sprinting for 5th. He had two teammates upfront so I'm skeptical he had to work much in that chasing group.
MSR 2016: 10th out of 31 in the winning group. He was the only Etixx there so sprinting for himself.
There are countless other examples, even in shorter races. Trentin is a fast guy, especially when the finish is slightly uphill, but he's not one who should count on his sprint to win a Classic. I've actually checked all of his wins in one day races before the EC (3) and they all came after a late attack.
So again, to me it was the right call.
42x16ss said:100 kms at 150 watts, no.tobydawq said:SafeBet said:Sagan was tactically inept AND wasn't the fastest anyway. It took him forever to open the sprint because he had dead legs. He's been beaten a gazillion times by lesser sprinters on this finish before. What does that tell you?tobydawq said:SafeBet said:People will never understand that sprinting after 300km is like a different sport. Nibali beat Trentin and was almost on Valverde's level. Sagan has been consistently beaten by slower guys in Sanremo. It was not just a matter of being boxed in, he didn't have the legs.
There is a reason Alaphilippe was the favorite, i.e. he's the strongest rider in the world at the moment.
No. Because it isn't. They are averaging 150 watts the first 4 hours. It doesn't mean that much.
It's hard because the last 10 kilometres have been hard, not because they have ridden 300 kilometres.
Trentin had just been on the solo attack. Nibali was not close to Valverde. Sagan was boxed in.
This race is different from any other. And it's preposterous to claim it would be the same if it was 100 km shorter. Trentin could attack a hundred times and still outsprint Nibali by a mile in a standard 200 km race. You're too smart to really believe those extra 100 km don't make a difference.
I honestly don't believe that 100 kms ridden at 140 watts is fatigue-inducing for a professional bike rider, no.
Sagan always has a hard time accelerating from low speed (at least comparatively to the people he faced today). The exact same thing happened Monday in Tirreno - he got the front too early and when Richeze and Alaphilippe passed him he couldn't jump on their wheels as quickly as he would have liked. And that stage surely hadn't been hard at all.
And I don't know how to take your Trentin statement. Trentin was to me the most surprising part of the initial 7 man group and already there he must have gone pretty deep. Then he made an attack on the flat where he rides all-out for a kilometre or so. No wonder he didn't have anything to sprint with a kilometre later. That was because he had emptied his anaerobic resources with that attack, not because he had been burning fat an hour longer than usual.
But 230 kms at 150 watts with 60kms still to go? Better believe it. It adds up, even for the best pros. Sure, they can still launch 1 or 2 strong sprints/attacks but everything is still cumulative. Reaction time decreases, decision making is that bit worse.
Don't believe me? Put your name down for Grafton-Inverell or Melbourne-Warnambool and you can find out for yourself. If the race was so easy it would be a 130 rider sprint.
Leinster said:SafeBet said:Let's check results then:yaco said:SafeBet said:He's not the second fastest of that group after a long hard race. Check his results in the Classics. You'll see for yourself.yaco said:Trentin is tactically naive at the end of a big race - he was the second fastest in that group, so no need to attack with 2kms to go.
Trentin has only been a leader for two seasons so previous seasons are irrelevant - Sagan is the quickest of the final group then Trentin, Alaphalippe,Kwiatkowski and Naesen who are evenly matched - The fact is it was a crazy and unnecessary move by Trentin to attack - The team must be pulling their hair out.
EC 2018: wins a 4 men sprint after Cimolai leads him out (only fast guy there was VdP).
Gent - Wevelgem 2018: 7th out of 19 in the winning group (outsprinted by Sagan and Naesen among others).
Ronde 2017: 9th out of 14 in the group sprinting for 5th. He had two teammates upfront so I'm skeptical he had to work much in that chasing group.
MSR 2016: 10th out of 31 in the winning group. He was the only Etixx there so sprinting for himself.
There are countless other examples, even in shorter races. Trentin is a fast guy, especially when the finish is slightly uphill, but he's not one who should count on his sprint to win a Classic. I've actually checked all of his wins in one day races before the EC (3) and they all came after a late attack.
So again, to me it was the right call.
He's won Paris-Tours twice. Granted, in 1v1 and 2v1 match sprints.
And he also had 4 stage wins at a Vuelta, (1 solo, the rest field sprints, against a less-than-stellar sprinting field).
I thought it was a good move, I was just surprised that it was van Aert who chased him down, rather than let one of the true sprinters chase him.
I wonder if increasing specialisation is changing the nature of this race. As sprinters are training and developing more and more for the final, then fewer of them can get over the Poggio.Velolover2 said:Red Rick said:I feel quite the opposite. Today convinced me it's not all that balanced even without Le Manie.Velolover2 said:Good edition after all. The balance is still perfect but you could add Le Maine for a bit more pre-action without destroying the sprinters' (bar Groenewegen and Kittel) chances..
The slow pace on Cipressa made Poggio much more explosive. But I'm astonished that no one had the guts to go long range.
One team decided to ride really hard on the Poggio today, the Poggio group did not cooperate at all, it had been an easy day all day, and the bunch kick finished almost half a minute down.
If one strong team commits to the Poggio, a bunch sprint can't win. That is perhaps the biggest tactical change together with guys like Sagan, Matthews and Degenkolb not waiting for a sprint anymore.
You might be right. And if most teams have a puncheur up front from a Poggio attack.. nobody will be doing any chasing.
It will still be more of a tactical game that we know from the classics than a mass sprint. But only 7 km of serious action.
Kwibus said:He could also just listen to the pros which will confirm that 300km will do its work.
Leinster said:Sagan said he was watching Valverde in the sprint (fair enough). So he was looking the wrong way when Kwiat opened up. Kwiat has Alaf on his wheel. Alaf had Naessen on his. By the time Sagan reacted, he could only get onto Naessen’s wheel. That worked out for Alaf, I think a few other riders had they been on his wheel he could have been taken (I have no prior knowledge of Naessen’s sprinting abilities).
I wouldn’t blame Mohoric, he “thought it was Colbrelli,” so thought he had to do leadout duties. Nibali should have known the other Bahrain jersey wasn’t Nibali, so should’ve come through and kept the speed up.
tobydawq said:Kwibus said:He could also just listen to the pros which will confirm that 300km will do its work.
Van Aert: ""Yeah – it was the longest race I've ever done today," he said, "but it doesn't actually feel any longer than the Ronde van Vlaanderen or something. It even feels shorter because only the final is hard. It's a long way until it becomes interesting – but, yeah, the final was spectacular, and that's nice."
Van Avermaet: "We all know that despite the length of Milan-San Remo, it can be an easy race to finish but one of the hardest races to win," said the 2016 Olympic champion, who took his first-and-only Monument win in 2017 at Paris-Roubaix.
"It is also one of the most open races in that anyone has a chance if they are still there on the Poggio," he said. "I’ve been in the top 10 on two occasions and I know I can do a good performance, particularly if we race hard as I can do a good sprint after a long, hard race. Anything can happen at a race like Milan-San Remo so I will give everything I have on Saturday."
Apparently it was not hard enough for Van Avermaet to be in contention.
I was confusing Kwiat and Mohoric, yes. I wasn't sure which way around they all came through. My point was that Sagan was looking to the right and by the time he got up to speed, 4 riders had gone through on his left and he was a couple of riders behind Alaphilippe, and had too much ground to make up in not enough road.tobydawq said:Leinster said:Sagan said he was watching Valverde in the sprint (fair enough). So he was looking the wrong way when Kwiat opened up. Kwiat has Alaf on his wheel. Alaf had Naessen on his. By the time Sagan reacted, he could only get onto Naessen’s wheel. That worked out for Alaf, I think a few other riders had they been on his wheel he could have been taken (I have no prior knowledge of Naessen’s sprinting abilities).
I wouldn’t blame Mohoric, he “thought it was Colbrelli,” so thought he had to do leadout duties. Nibali should have known the other Bahrain jersey wasn’t Nibali, so should’ve come through and kept the speed up.
Aren't you mixing things up a little bit here? Perhaps confusing Kwiatkowski and Mohoric with each other. Alaphilippe was following Mohoric when he opened the sprint.
Nibali couldn't confuse Mohoric with Colbrelli as he is wearing the Slovenian national champion jersey.
Feeling long =/= feeling hard. Here's Van Aerts stats:tobydawq said:Kwibus said:He could also just listen to the pros which will confirm that 300km will do its work.
Van Aert: ""Yeah – it was the longest race I've ever done today," he said, "but it doesn't actually feel any longer than the Ronde van Vlaanderen or something. It even feels shorter because only the final is hard. It's a long way until it becomes interesting – but, yeah, the final was spectacular, and that's nice."
Van Avermaet: "We all know that despite the length of Milan-San Remo, it can be an easy race to finish but one of the hardest races to win," said the 2016 Olympic champion, who took his first-and-only Monument win in 2017 at Paris-Roubaix.
"It is also one of the most open races in that anyone has a chance if they are still there on the Poggio," he said. "I’ve been in the top 10 on two occasions and I know I can do a good performance, particularly if we race hard as I can do a good sprint after a long, hard race. Anything can happen at a race like Milan-San Remo so I will give everything I have on Saturday."
Apparently it was not hard enough for Van Avermaet to be in contention.
42x16ss said:Feeling long =/= feeling hard. Here's Van Aerts stats:tobydawq said:Kwibus said:He could also just listen to the pros which will confirm that 300km will do its work.
Van Aert: ""Yeah – it was the longest race I've ever done today," he said, "but it doesn't actually feel any longer than the Ronde van Vlaanderen or something. It even feels shorter because only the final is hard. It's a long way until it becomes interesting – but, yeah, the final was spectacular, and that's nice."
Van Avermaet: "We all know that despite the length of Milan-San Remo, it can be an easy race to finish but one of the hardest races to win," said the 2016 Olympic champion, who took his first-and-only Monument win in 2017 at Paris-Roubaix.
"It is also one of the most open races in that anyone has a chance if they are still there on the Poggio," he said. "I’ve been in the top 10 on two occasions and I know I can do a good performance, particularly if we race hard as I can do a good sprint after a long, hard race. Anything can happen at a race like Milan-San Remo so I will give everything I have on Saturday."
Apparently it was not hard enough for Van Avermaet to be in contention.
Van Aert’s stats for the opening 149km:
Duration: 3 hours 46 minutes
Average power: 201W (2.61 W/kg)
Normalised power: 250W (3.25 W/kg)
Average heart rate: 119bpm
Stats for the end of Passo del Turchino:
Section length: 1.7km
Average gradient: 6.2%
Time: 4:04
Average power: 441w (5.73w/kg)
Max power: 955w (12.40w/kg)
Stats for the Capo Mele after 237km:
Length: 1.7km
Time: 3:05
Average power: 394W (5.12 W/kg)
Max Power: 784W (10.18 W/kg)
Stats for the Capo Cervo after 242km:
Length: 1.6km
Time: 2:42
Average power: 361W (4.69 W/kg)
Max power: 739W (9.6 W/kg)
Stats for the Capo Berta after 250km:
Length: 1.8km at 6.4% (the steepest climb of the day)
Time: 4:14
Average power: 491W (6.38 W/kg)
Max power: 917W (11.9 W/kg)
Stats from the Cipressa after 262km:
Length: 5.6km
Time: 10:33
Average power: 407W (5.29 W/kg)
Max power: 1,011W (13.13 W/kg)
Stats from the Poggio after 281km:
Length: 3.7km
Time: 5:42
Average power: 475W (6.03 W/kg)
Maximum power: 1,141W (14.81 W/kg)
“I thought that Trentin’s attack was the decisive one, but it came a little too early,” he said after the race. Van Aert’s data shows the effort to cover the move and bridge to Trentin was huge. The Belgian rode 800m in 48 seconds at 628W (8.16 W/kg). Unfortunately for him, this move did not cause a split and a compact lead group hit the last two bends with 600m to go.
Van Aert hit a great peak power of 1,395W (18.11 W/kg) as the sprint opened up with 250m to go. He managed to maintain a strong effort, averaging 1,102w (14.3 W/kg) for the 21 seconds of the sprint. Remember, this is after 290km and nearly seven hours of racing.
https://cyclingtips.com/2019/03/by-the-numbers-what-it-takes-to-finish-in-the-lead-group-at-milan-san-remo/
If you actually raced and trained with power you would know that this is a f$%king hard race to win just from looking at the data.
Van Aert is a good deal taller and heavier than Alaphillipe, which would count a lot.tobydawq said:42x16ss said:Feeling long =/= feeling hard. Here's Van Aerts stats:tobydawq said:Kwibus said:He could also just listen to the pros which will confirm that 300km will do its work.
Van Aert: ""Yeah – it was the longest race I've ever done today," he said, "but it doesn't actually feel any longer than the Ronde van Vlaanderen or something. It even feels shorter because only the final is hard. It's a long way until it becomes interesting – but, yeah, the final was spectacular, and that's nice."
Van Avermaet: "We all know that despite the length of Milan-San Remo, it can be an easy race to finish but one of the hardest races to win," said the 2016 Olympic champion, who took his first-and-only Monument win in 2017 at Paris-Roubaix.
"It is also one of the most open races in that anyone has a chance if they are still there on the Poggio," he said. "I’ve been in the top 10 on two occasions and I know I can do a good performance, particularly if we race hard as I can do a good sprint after a long, hard race. Anything can happen at a race like Milan-San Remo so I will give everything I have on Saturday."
Apparently it was not hard enough for Van Avermaet to be in contention.
Van Aert’s stats for the opening 149km:
Duration: 3 hours 46 minutes
Average power: 201W (2.61 W/kg)
Normalised power: 250W (3.25 W/kg)
Average heart rate: 119bpm
Stats for the end of Passo del Turchino:
Section length: 1.7km
Average gradient: 6.2%
Time: 4:04
Average power: 441w (5.73w/kg)
Max power: 955w (12.40w/kg)
Stats for the Capo Mele after 237km:
Length: 1.7km
Time: 3:05
Average power: 394W (5.12 W/kg)
Max Power: 784W (10.18 W/kg)
Stats for the Capo Cervo after 242km:
Length: 1.6km
Time: 2:42
Average power: 361W (4.69 W/kg)
Max power: 739W (9.6 W/kg)
Stats for the Capo Berta after 250km:
Length: 1.8km at 6.4% (the steepest climb of the day)
Time: 4:14
Average power: 491W (6.38 W/kg)
Max power: 917W (11.9 W/kg)
Stats from the Cipressa after 262km:
Length: 5.6km
Time: 10:33
Average power: 407W (5.29 W/kg)
Max power: 1,011W (13.13 W/kg)
Stats from the Poggio after 281km:
Length: 3.7km
Time: 5:42
Average power: 475W (6.03 W/kg)
Maximum power: 1,141W (14.81 W/kg)
“I thought that Trentin’s attack was the decisive one, but it came a little too early,” he said after the race. Van Aert’s data shows the effort to cover the move and bridge to Trentin was huge. The Belgian rode 800m in 48 seconds at 628W (8.16 W/kg). Unfortunately for him, this move did not cause a split and a compact lead group hit the last two bends with 600m to go.
Van Aert hit a great peak power of 1,395W (18.11 W/kg) as the sprint opened up with 250m to go. He managed to maintain a strong effort, averaging 1,102w (14.3 W/kg) for the 21 seconds of the sprint. Remember, this is after 290km and nearly seven hours of racing.
https://cyclingtips.com/2019/03/by-the-numbers-what-it-takes-to-finish-in-the-lead-group-at-milan-san-remo/
If you actually raced and trained with power you would know that this is a f$%king hard race to win just from looking at the data.
Based on this, it looks much harder than Alaphilippe's average of 170 watts.
I wonder why it's so different.
tobydawq said:Based on this, it looks much harder than Alaphilippe's average of 170 watts.
I wonder why it's so different.
42x16ss said:Van Aert is a good deal taller and heavier than Alaphillipe, which would count a lot.
The other thing is, 170-200 Watts average isn't the issue, as always its the surges, which are huge at WT level. They may "cruise" the flats to someone sitting in, but the second there's a fraction of a chance to split the race they take it. This doesn't show when you only look at averages.
Roubaix has to be raced insanely hard because it's even flatter, and there's nothing to work with until the pave, unless there's wind.