Most believable Tour in years?

[thrawn]

Well with the way Saxo riders are performing now, I think we would have seen a US Postal style performance from them in the mountains had Contador not crashed out.

 

[the sceptic]

Getting rid of sky and suddenly everything looks much more promising. I wont say its a new clean era, but these are good signs.

 

[DonMI6]

I may be being unfair, but Frank Shleck is having a good tour, 7th overall. I'm sure the authorities keep a close eye on him, but I'm a bit surprised.

 

[SundayRider]

Getting rid of sky and suddenly everything looks much more promising. I wont say its a new clean era, but these are good signs.

Menchov, Kreuziger, Impey, JTL all sanctioned/positive in the last month alone.

 

[Alphabet]

Nibali is simply the best of the rest, taking out the elite three of Froome, Contador and Quintana. If any of those three were in the race his lead would be far smaller and he wouldn't look quite as 'in control' etc. I don't know about who's clean and who isn't but it's been apparent for some time now that he is the best GC rider outside of the big three and so it would be more of a surprise if he was being put into difficulty by those below him than it is for him to have the race all but won already. His biggest adversaries in this Tour are twenty something French guys who've never so much as podiumed a Grand Tour before, of course he's looking cushy.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I may be being unfair, but Frank Shleck is having a good tour, 7th overall. I'm sure the authorities keep a close eye on him, but I'm a bit surprised.

GC after stage 14:
1 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Astana Pro Team 61:52:54
2 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Esp) Movistar Team 0:04:37
3 Romain Bardet (Fra) Ag2r La Mondiale 0:04:50
4 Thibaut Pinot (Fra) FDJ.fr 0:05:06
5 Tejay Van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:05:49
6 Jean-Christophe Péraud (Fra) Ag2r La Mondiale 0:06:08
7 Bauke Mollema (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team 0:08:33
8 Leopold König (Cze) Team NetApp - Endura 0:09:32
9 Laurens Ten Dam (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team 0:10:01
10 Pierre Rolland (Fra) Team Europcar 0:10:48
11 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Lotto - Belisol 0:11:02
12 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Esp) Trek Factory Racing 0:11:10
13 Rui Alberto Faria Da Costa (Por) Lampre - Merida 0:12:57
14 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Trek Factory Racing 0:14:37

Schleck is 14 minutes after Nibali and behind just about everybody who cares about the GC at this point.

Dinosaur tactics from Trek.

 

[DonMI6]

GC after stage 14:
1 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Astana Pro Team 61:52:54
2 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Esp) Movistar Team 0:04:37
3 Romain Bardet (Fra) Ag2r La Mondiale 0:04:50
4 Thibaut Pinot (Fra) FDJ.fr 0:05:06
5 Tejay Van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:05:49
6 Jean-Christophe Péraud (Fra) Ag2r La Mondiale 0:06:08
7 Bauke Mollema (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team 0:08:33
8 Leopold König (Cze) Team NetApp - Endura 0:09:32
9 Laurens Ten Dam (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team 0:10:01
10 Pierre Rolland (Fra) Team Europcar 0:10:48
11 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Lotto - Belisol 0:11:02
12 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Esp) Trek Factory Racing 0:11:10
13 Rui Alberto Faria Da Costa (Por) Lampre - Merida 0:12:57
14 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Trek Factory Racing 0:14:37

Schleck is 14 minutes after Nibali and behind just about everybody who cares about the GC at this point.

Dinosaur tactics from Trek.

Fair enough, I don't know where I got that from...he may have finished a stage 7th or something.

In other news, Phil Ligget has just told Australian TV that Nibali must be clean because he has categorically denied doping every time he's been asked!

 

[rainman]

Looks more believable to me. When I see Rolland looking very human, Tarramae fail, Valverde not alien, the French youngsters squeaky clean, Van Garderen lumping it up to the finish, all going into oxygen debt like normal humans should, all good so far.
Then the glaring exception, smoking a cigar up the climb, chatting to spectators and writing a 'wish you were here' postcard to Pappy, no its too much. He's good but not that good.

 

[victorschipolrijk]

" Those who know him and his parents well say that his father, Salvatore, waved him off into the pro peloton with a message along these lines: “Enzo [how he’s known at home], I’m happy that you’re going to be a cyclist because it was your dream. You might win or lose, but the only thing you must never do is cheat. Because, if you do, you can forget about ever coming back to Sicily.”

LOL, cain't get any funnier that that fella.

SICILY is the land of murders, thieves, cheaters, Mafia, Omerta.

Father Enzo is just a donkey.

Nibali sold his soul last year to Astana, they use their system in the Giro 2013(just like US Postal utilized La Vuelta 1998) saw it works, and now are out for bigger preys.

Nibali doesn't not talk anymore in "I" mode, now he changed to "my team"

When asked about future plans, he doesn't not start with I, like he used to do it, now he says, my team.

In a team that is full of proven cheaters, you can not have any other way.

Alexandr Vinokurov
Giuseppe Martinelli
Dmitriy Fofonov
Raquel Ortolano
Gorazd Stangelj
Stefano Zanini
Dr Joost De Maeseneer

That is a lot of dirty people in one team, for anyone to believe it clean, barred jingoistic individuals.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

" Those who know him and his parents well say that his father, Salvatore, waved him off into the pro peloton with a message along these lines: “Enzo [how he’s known at home], I’m happy that you’re going to be a cyclist because it was your dream. You might win or lose, but the only thing you must never do is cheat. Because, if you do, you can forget about ever coming back to Sicily.”

yea uncle tractor will mow him down? who is in jail BTW

 

[Puckfiend]

I'm really liking this year's tour. Watching Tony Gallopin ride out of his mind, and then pay for it horribly the next day, harkens back to a time before O2-vector doping. Watching Martin pull the peloton for 2 days and then come almost to a track stand when the lights finally went out was awesome too.

However, watching Nibali nose breathe up every finishing climb while riding everyone off his wheel is still a bit of a bummer.

 

[frenchfry]

I'm really liking this year's tour. Watching Tony Gallopin ride out of his mind, and then pay for it horribly the next day, harkens back to a time before O2-vector doping. Watching Martin pull the peloton for 2 days and then come almost to a track stand when the lights finally went out was awesome too.

However, watching Nibali nose breathe up every finishing climb while riding everyone off his wheel is still a bit of a bummer.

Although it is somewhat dangerous to use one-off examples to attempt to judge, the day after Blel Kadri's stage win he was cooked. On the other hand, the day after Tony Martin turned in an unbelievable individual performance, maintaining a time gap on a charging peleton for an unbelievable length of time, he was pulling Kwiatkowski in a break for a looooong time showing no effects of his effort the day before.

 

[King Boonen]

The guys below Nibali, yeah it does look a bit cleaner. Nibali? No way. Looking at him Sunday ride every climb I have no doubts he would have kept pace with Froome and Contador.

 

[the sceptic]

If Nibali is smart he wont do any more attacks and drop all the french guys like he is on a sunday ride. Maybe even get dropped a few times himself.

And definitely dont get close to winning the ITT.

 

[Race Radio]

I don't know, I'm starting to fall for it all again. Some exceptions at the top aside, this looks so utterly more believable than the absurdity of the last couple of years.

It's weird because after the first couple of hilly or mountain stages I was thinking the juice was strong across the boards and it was getting worse again. These guys look tired after a few days in the mountains. The guys finishing in the top ten appear in some cases pretty believable in terms of performances.

Maybe it's just that the two most powerful and explosive riders are out of it, and I know Nibali is going very fast, but a few places down it looks kind of normal.

Am I being a sucker? Benotti, don't answer that...

Very believable

Nibali looks like he is breathing through his nose but the rest look normal, as do their numbers

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

The best is allways cheating aren't they?

 

[mrhender]

I gues the "believable" part has a lot to do with the racing beeing predictable..
Most people would agree that Nibali should win this Tour after CF/AC left so no real surprise there, however his effort seems very untroubled and a bit too easy..
The worst part for me is when I get the sense of beeing scr.e.wed over by ridiculous performances from riders coming practically from nowhere..
I haven't experinced this feeling (yet) in this years Tour.

I am not ready to call any GC contender clean just yet..
The biggest problem for them is that it's impossible to prove cleanliness.
I genuinely applaud those external observers who dares calling it clean and argues their case. It's a no-win situation as it can never be proved as a fact...

Fair or not -I myself pick the "easy" answer -sparing myself from beeing fooled.

Either way I feel that this race is fair in the way of natural balance (best guy wins)..
I can never know if Nibali would win if everyone was clean but speculating on this will not do me and my passion for cycling any good -So doping or not, I do find the progresssion of this race so far "believable" ...

 

[GuyIncognito]

I might be biased, but Nibali doesn't seem like a doper. I'm not saying he's not, but his temperament, personality, everything doesn't seem to lend itself to being a cheater.

Whereas most big riders who have been caught have fit the personality profile more often then not.

How can you have over 1000 posts and still be naive to the point of thinking personality has anything to do with doping???

 

[frenchfry]

How can you have over 1000 posts and still be naive to the point of thinking personality has anything to do with doping???

Clearly whittashau would never dope himself, he seems far too nice and naive.

 

[deValtos]

How can you have over 1000 posts and still be naive to the point of thinking personality has anything to do with doping???

Personality has everything to do with doping.

However as fans we only get to see a very limited scope of someones character and I would agree with you to say that we can't put much (or even any) merit to conclusions about doping on the perceived personality of a rider that we create in our own minds. Of course even people very close to a rider can be fooled by their "outwards" personality aswell.

But you can't say personality doesn't have anything to do with doping.

 

[maxmartin]

Nibali is just as bad as Froome last year and Contador pre ban. Dominant and always in control. Can go faster when he wants in all terrains. Alien.

Blood and EPO doping imo. Similar model as all the other intra season donkey to racehorse dopers in the past: Armstrong, Basso, Schleck etc.

But below him things looks better and the players have provided one of the better tours in years. Of course helped by an excellent parcours which offers opportunities for racing on many stages.

Take out Nibali and this tour would have been a 9 out of 10 form me.

It would have enormous benefits to the sport if Nibali tested positive shortly after the tour.

too bad those two notorious benchmarks are at home, otherwise we could know more.

 

[Netserk]

Froome and Contador away and Nibali not having to go full gas mean the numbers are down. Also the extremely hard first part of the race (route and weather) puts a damper on things. I'd say things a more uneven now with Astana, Sky and Tinkoff (movistar disappoints me so far) absolutely full ***. If Contador and Froome was here and they went full gas, we would probably see the strongest performances since the passport.

 

[thehog]

Froome and Contador away and Nibali not having to go full gas mean the numbers are down. Also the extremely hard first part of the race (route and weather) puts a damper on things. I'd say things a more uneven now with Astana, Sky and Tinkoff (movistar disappoints me so far) absolutely full ***. If Contador and Froome was here and they went full gas, we would probably see the strongest performances since the passport.

All the withdrawals are giving the French false hope!

 

[red_flanders]

Froome and Contador away and Nibali not having to go full gas mean the numbers are down. Also the extremely hard first part of the race (route and weather) puts a damper on things. I'd say things a more uneven now with Astana, Sky and Tinkoff (movistar disappoints me so far) absolutely full ***. If Contador and Froome was here and they went full gas, we would probably see the strongest performances since the passport.

This is sadly more likely than the "cleaner" scenario I fear.

I think you're quite right that the teams you mention were prepared for a big showdown and now have a different focus.

I think the guys we're seeing float to the top would have struggled to make the top 10 if the race was at full gas as you describe.

Thanks for crushing my hope.

 

[Merckx index]

Don't let a rider's personality fool you. Good guys dope too.

How would you know that?

I think when LA retired (for the first time) in 2005, ASO decreed there would be a "cleanish" Tour every three years. 2014 is on schedule.

A common view here seems to be that Nibs is one of the most suspicious riders ever to record completely believable and possible times up climbs.