National Football League

[Alpe d'Huez]

First, a comment on the NCAA's weekend.

Meltdowns by several teams. Oregon, Baylor, Texas A&M. The latter being the most interesting, as with Mariotta now out of the Heisman, Winston not likely to win with the law after him, Manzeil was in the driver's seat to pull a double. Yet, he laid a total egg against LSU. And Bryce Petty's outside chances flushed away. And they can't hand it to McCarron, he's not even the best player on his team. All this while Winston has the game of his career.

Florida State and Ohio State keep winning, but against questionable opposition. I'd have to say Missouri and Auburn, who won't make the championship game as they have to play Alabama, may beat either on most days. Heck, you could argue Stanford with two looses would as well.

Not that much of this matters, I don't see any possible way anyone beats Alabama. Maybe the most complete college team in many years.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

NO@ATL
NYJ@BAL - The Jets have been winning every other week, and the streak continues here.
PIT@CLE - Browns playing better, but so are wiley Steelers.
TB@DET - I like the way Bucs improving with Glennon, but Stafford shreds them.
MIN@GB - Hard to pick, but I'm going with home team, even with Tolzein.
JAX@HOU - As much of a mess the poorly-coached Texans are, they are more talented.
SD@KC - This is going to be very close I think, but Chiefs are better overall, though still a 6-4 team, not a 9-1 team.
CAR@MIA - Panthers on a roll, heading to the playoffs.
CHI@STL - Bears streaky, but Rams too, and often good at home.
IND@ARI - I like Luck and the Colts, but am picking the Cards at home. They are more solid across the board than people realize.
TEN@OAK - Can Matt McGloin make it two in a row? I think so.
DAL@NYG - Cowboys really banged up on defense, but the Giants have honestly not beaten a good team yet, and faced many backup no-name QBs. However, Romo could lose this game by himself.
DEN@NE - This is the one to watch, I'll stick with Brady at home in one of those 33-30 games. No way an "angry" Pats blow the Broncos out. That's silly blogosphere talk.
SF@WAS - Redskins defense is just what the 49er offense needs.

Baffled why Foxxy is picking Miami over Carolina? Washington over SF? Maybe his calculator tells him something I don't know.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Baffled why Foxxy is picking Miami over Carolina? Washington over SF? Maybe his calculator tells him something I don't know.

I found the magic formula this week. I did some heavy stats: Since there are upsets every week (but we don´t know which ones that will be), b/c around 50% of game outcomes are random, but HFA is consistent, and there are more than 70% home favourites (actually it´s 10 of 13), and no away favourite has a line of 7 or higher, my numbers tell me it´s better to go with all home teams...

No, I am just kidding this time.
Let me see how i´ll fare this time against all well thought picks.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Christ, look at the time…just quick picks.

NO @ ATL
CAR @ MIA
CHI @ STL
NYJ @ BAL
JAX @ HOU
MIN @ GB
PIT @ CLE
TB @ DET
SD @ KC
TEN @ OAK
IND @ ARI
DAL @ NYG
DEN @ NE
SF @ WAS

 

[ChewbaccaD]

...so much for NE coming out "angry"...

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Matt Flynn almost, almost picked up right where he left off in Green Bay. A couple sloppy throws, but he looked much better than he did in either Seattle or Oakland. I can't help but think he's now the Packer starter on Thrusday, and maybe next week if Rodgers isn't back.

Two games really got my ire up. One was the way the Chiefs played defense in the last minutes of the Charger game. They played too many zones, blitzed maybe once, and were just giving up big chunks of yards. The same thing happened with the Giants, who had been stopping the Cowboy offense nearly the entire second half, played some sort of similar soft zone and allowed Romo to just pick them apart in that last drive. Both Reid and Coughlin are old school coaches who played not to lose instead of to win, and they both lost for the same reason.

Not to be outdone, I now agree with Chris. The Texans have to be the worst coached team in the NFL. Between Kubiak and Wade Phillips (recall that the NFL player I worked with had some choice words for him as well, similar to what Ed Reed said), and all the talent on that team, they are completely tanking it. It's just ugly.

On the flip side, big props to "Riverboat" Ron Rivera and the Panthers who did go for it when it mattered, and it was the difference that pulled out the win. This is what winning teams are based on.

I'm not saying the Steelers are going to win the Superbowl, but for an old team with a heap of injuries they sure are coming together. I kind of like them right now for that last AFC playoff spot.

Buccaneers 0-6 with Josh Freeman, 3-1 with Mike Glennon. He's not RG3, but for now he's their guy.

Very impressive showing by the Cardinals. You would not have thought this a couple weeks ago, but next Sunday's matchup of Arizona at Philadelphia is looking very interesting.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Two games really got my ire up. One was the way the Chiefs played defense in the last minutes of the Charger game. They played too many zones, blitzed maybe once, and were just giving up big chunks of yards. The same thing happened with the Giants, who had been stopping the Cowboy offense nearly the entire second half, played some sort of similar soft zone and allowed Romo to just pick them apart in that last drive. Both Reid and Coughlin are old school coaches who played not to lose instead of to win, and they both lost for the same reason.

Chiefs have been playing man coverage almost exclusively in all their previous games (JAX, DAL, PHIL, NYG, TEN, OAK, HOU, CLE, BUF). In those games they could get away with man-to-man because none of those opponents have what I would call a great QB like a Brady, PManning,... or Rivers. Brady, PM, and Rivers are great enough in that if you play man vs them they will pick you apart by finding the matchups to go to. Then their accuracy will get the ball to a "spot" that only their receiver can get to and away from the defender. The matchup of choice is a decision made before the ball is snapped, so a guy like Rivers cuts his after-snap decision making down tremendously. That said, I did not watch the KC-SD game, but if KC played man-to-man coverage, then Rivers would have sliced them up. But if KC got out of man and into zone as you say (something they have not played much this season) then KC's defensive secondary & LBs would be in situations they are not nearly as familiar with, and the defenders would not be as used to communicating (which is critical). But if they played zone, Rivers is the reason for it.

On the flip side, big props to "Riverboat" Ron Rivera and the Panthers who did go for it when it mattered, and it was the difference that pulled out the win. This is what winning teams are based on.

Agree with props to Riverboat Rivera. Another factor in the difference is Panther defense. I think Carolina's identity starts with defense, which allows the historically non-gambling Rivera to loosen things up and go for it now. My guess is Rivera feels comfortable doing that now that the defense has their back.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

"Riverboat Ron".
Geez, he´s more transformed than anyone could have dreamed of.
Not only going for it once in his own half, but twice on decisive TD drives. And the football gods favoured the bold. His team was outplayed, but edged out another close win.
The first conversion, close to nobody would have gone for it. Even the 2nd one (b/c it was 4th and 10), most would have punted, pray for a 3-and-out, and get the ball back with around 1 min to play ddep in own territory.
Will his team always convert these 4th downs? Of course not. But that approach win you more games than they lose you. Maybe the 23 coaches of KC should watch this...

What an irony, now that KC found some kind of offense, they get torched with almost 500 yards. Seems they lucked out (even 3 consecutive PI-Pens wasn´t enough). Bye bye KC, we all saw it coming...

 

[ChewbaccaD]

"Riverboat Ron".
Geez, he´s more transformed than anyone could have dreamed of.
Not only going for it once in his own half, but twice on decisive TD drives. And the football gods favoured the bold. His team was outplayed, but edged out another close win.
The first conversion, close to nobody would have gone for it. Even the 2nd one (b/c it was 4th and 10), most would have punted, pray for a 3-and-out, and get the ball back with around 1 min to play ddep in own territory.
Will his team always convert these 4th downs? Of course not. But that approach win you more games than they lose you. Maybe the 23 coaches of KC should watch this...

What an irony, now that KC found some kind of offense, they get torched with almost 500 yards. Seems they lucked out (even 3 consecutive PI-Pens wasn´t enough). Bye bye KC, we all saw it coming...

"Outplayed?"...um, we didn't allow them to score in the second half...I'd suggest that is a pretty uninformed opinion.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

First of all, thanks for the good posts here. The whole week I was reading all that crap on ESPN, CBS, etc (only the comment sections there are lower standard in style and understanding of their game). Hope you guys write more, so that I don´t have to go back there.

Matt Flynn almost, almost picked up right where he left off in Green Bay. A couple sloppy throws, but he looked much better than he did in either Seattle or Oakland. I can't help but think he's now the Packer starter on Thrusday, and maybe next week if Rodgers isn't back.

McCartney spoiled his comeback. Of course he must have gone for it in OT. Explanation: Same as the Reid one last week. Anyway, that isn´t news. This style did cost him 6 games in the SB season. He´s like that...
Yes, I too think Flynn will start...
At the end of the season that half game will cost them the playoffs.

Both Reid and Coughlin are old school coaches who played not to lose instead of to win, and they both lost for the same reason.

True. Luckily o) only one of them got lucky to win SB(s). That means at least Coughlin will be (wrongfully) remembered as a great coach (.548 Wng.-Pct. only, BTW).

Wade Phillips (recall that the NFL player I worked with had some choice words for him as well, similar to what Ed Reed said), and all the talent on that team, they are completely tanking it. It's just ugly.

Yes, let´s agree with ChrisE. The seldom it is...
Phillips? The guy who benched winning Flutie in favour of being-sacked-machine Rob Johnson. The biggest blunder in NFL history. Him and Kubiak. Yeah, a deadly duo...

On the flip side, big props to "Riverboat" Ron Rivera and the Panthers who did go for it when it mattered, and it was the difference that pulled out the win. This is what winning teams are based on.

Yes. My guy. He stands by his words "We will do that now" (going for it) some two months ago. It changed everything for him. From hot seat to SB contender.

Chiefs have been playing man coverage almost exclusively in all their previous games (JAX, DAL, PHIL, NYG, TEN, OAK, HOU, CLE, BUF). In those games they could get away with man-to-man because none of those opponents have what I would call a great QB like a Brady, PManning,... or Rivers. Brady, PM, and Rivers are great enough in that if you play man vs them they will pick you apart by finding the matchups to go to. Then their accuracy will get the ball to a "spot" that only their receiver can get to and away from the defender. The matchup of choice is a decision made before the ball is snapped, so a guy like Rivers cuts his after-snap decision making down tremendously. That said, I did not watch the KC-SD game, but if KC played man-to-man coverage, then Rivers would have sliced them up. But if KC got out of man and into zone as you say (something they have not played much this season) then KC's defensive secondary & LBs would be in situations they are not nearly as familiar with, and the defenders would not be as used to communicating (which is critical). But if they played zone, Rivers is the reason for it.

Didn´t see the game either. Could only "watch" the play-by-play on nfl.com...
Agree with you here. Man-to-man vs veteran QBs end up in disaster if the rush doesn´t at least hurry the QB into bad throws more often than not.
It also seems that the injuries to those KC key defenders played a role... But that shall not be an excuse. Every NFL team has key injuries at this point in the season.

Agree with props to Riverboat Rivera. Another factor in the difference is Panther defense. I think Carolina's identity starts with defense, which allows the historically non-gambling Rivera to loosen things up and go for it now. My guess is Rivera feels comfortable doing that now that the defense has their back.

Agree again. It seems we regress to the mean after all this dis-agreeing.
Just a little bit: CAR had a very good Pass-D last year either (10th in NFL). Most credit for the turnaround must go to the new style. Riverboat Ron decided not to be a coward anymore. Anyway, such a good D surely helps a lot.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

"Outplayed?"...um, we didn't allow them to score in the second half...I'd suggest that is a pretty uninformed opinion.

Yes outplayed. For the whole game... I didn´t slice it into two halfs. My mistake.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Yes outplayed. For the whole game... I didn´t slice it into two halfs. My mistake.

Um...maybe you should have because we won, and we dominated their offense in the second half...they didn't really dominate us when it mattered...and when it mattered, our defense did dominate them...

...but I guess if you say so...

EDIT: Just checked again...we won...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I thought 60 mins matter.
Anyway, NE must be "angry"... True.

EDIT (just for you): Last time I checked, the CAR offense was actually worse than the one of MIA. Gaining a lousy 4.0 Y/PP. 60 minutes matter, if you don´t wanna get into a 13 point hole and depending on your coaches guts...

 

[ChewbaccaD]

I thought 60 mins matter.
Anyway, NE must be "angry"... True.

EDIT (just for you): Last time I checked, the CAR offense was actually worse than the one of MIA. Gaining a lousy 4.0 Y/PP. 60 minutes matter, if you don´t wanna get into a 13 point hole and depending on your coaches guts...

Yea, but check the running statistics...and the score.......and the fact that when we needed it, we marched all the way down the field and scored a touchdown and they couldn't do the same.

EDIT (just for you): 60 minutes do matter....the team with the most points at the end of it wins...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

OK Chawabba... I don´t wanna get into your stupid discussions like we had in the clinic. We have a good thread here, and you can´t spoil it. Tschüss.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

OK Chawabba... I don´t wanna get into your stupid discussions like we had in the clinic. We have a good thread here, and you can´t spoil it. Tschüss.

Fair enough...good news is that the NE game just got interesting.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Can only follow play-by-play here in germany. It was to cold to go out to "my" sportsbar. So, my Q: How was the D-Holding call on the last PM-Int, and the PI call on 3rd down on the last TD-Drive by IND?

Thanks in advance...

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Can only follow play-by-play here in germany. It was to cold to go out to "my" sportsbar. So, my Q: How was the D-Holding call on the last PM-Int, and the PI call on 3rd down on the last TD-Drive by IND?

Thanks in advance...

Actually, I didn't see the call. Sorry.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Bad time to be lazy not going out...

Maybe Alpe saw it?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Close call on Ninkovich´s PI on 3rd, but the hold Pen vs Talib was correct. Still, on the play PM got lucky there actually was a hold. Either the ball was massively underthrown or a complete miss-comunication...

Anyway, even w/o those plays, PM looked terrible, his stats do too, and he was even fumbling untouched. The legend was in his playoff-mode. Brutally bad for a 100-Mio-$-Baby. Even an early +3 in turnovers, and 24 point lead wasn´t enough for him to put the game away...
Not that Brady didn´t got lucky (they play he was almost intercepted for a pick 6), but overall he was extremely accurate on what I saw off the highlightes. But I guess he was trou-out the game when I look at the stats.

EDIT: "He went 0-for-6 with an interception when throwing under duress. Five of those incompletions, including the interception, came in the second half." (from ESPN)
That means he was 8/13 for 61 yds in the 1st half when not pressured. That´s pretty bad (4.7 Y/A). And 11/17 for 89 yds in the 2nd half/OT, pretty bad too when not under pressure (5.2 Y/A). Overall (incl. sacks) he had a 3.5 Y/PP.
The wind also can´t excuse PM: Into the wind he was 11/23 for 93 yds (4.0 Y/A), with the wind 8/13 for 57 yds (4.4 Y/A).
OTOH Brady settled down in the 2nd half/OT, going 24/33 for 263 yds after halftime.
After all, good that the above mentioned Pens didn´t decide the outcome. Certainly the wrong team would have won.

PM would look better in my eyes if he hadn´t that extreme variance in his games, but be constant trou-out a full season. Often super hero, but when he is bad, he looks worse than your ordinary backup.
OK, without all those crazy 6-TD games and comebacks he wouldn´t be folk hero, but certainly he´d have more superbowl rings by playing on the same performance level...

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Close call on Ninkovich´s PI on 3rd, but the hold Pen vs Talib was correct. Still, on the play PM got lucky there actually was a hold. Either the ball was massively underthrown or a complete miss-comunication...

Anyway, even w/o those plays, PM looked terrible, his stats do too, and he was even fumbling untouched. The legend was in his playoff-mode. Brutally bad for a 100-Mio-$-Baby. Even an early +3 in turnovers, and 24 point lead wasn´t enough for him to put the game away...
Not that Brady didn´t got lucky (they play he was almost intercepted for a pick 6), but overall he was extremely accurate on what I saw off the highlightes. But I guess he was trou-out the game when I look at the stats.

EDIT: "He went 0-for-6 with an interception when throwing under duress. Five of those incompletions, including the interception, came in the second half." (from ESPN)
That means he was 8/13 for 61 yds in the 1st half when not pressured. That´s pretty bad (4.7 Y/A). And 11/17 for 89 yds in the 2nd half/OT, pretty bad too when not under pressure (5.2 Y/A). Overall (incl. sacks) he had a 3.5 Y/PP.
The wind also can´t excuse PM: Into the wind he was 11/23 for 93 yds (4.0 Y/A), with the wind 8/13 for 57 yds (4.4 Y/A).
OTOH Brady settled down in the 2nd half/OT, going 24/33 for 263 yds after halftime.
After all, good that the above mentioned Pens didn´t decide the outcome. Certainly the wrong team would have won.

PM would look better in my eyes if he hadn´t that extreme variance in his games, but be constant trou-out a full season. Often super hero, but when he is bad, he looks worse than your ordinary backup.
OK, without all those crazy 6-TD games and comebacks he wouldn´t be folk hero, but certainly he´d have more superbowl rings by playing on the same performance level...

Epic choke.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

They were up 24-0. Twenty-Four to nothing!!! The way the Broncos, and I hate to say it, Manning, folded was eye opening. As soon as the score got to 24-14 you could just see the tide shift and Manning had no answer. Though Wes Welker arguably lost Denver the game, they were on their way to losing anyway. The entire second half New England was moving the ball on 4 out of 5 drives, while the Broncos had one good drive in the 4th. The better team won. Outplayed, out coached. Brady looked like a SB winner in the 2nd half to the end.

It wasn't only a lot of soft zones that cost KC the win, it was the fact that once they got the last TD, on the last San Diego drive the Chiefs blitzed on one down. The rest of the time it was 3-4 men rushing, and Rivers slicing his way up the field with 5-15 yard gains. It was like Reid was willfully allowing the Chargers to get down to about the 15, and would gamble his team could stop them on a short field with very little time on the clock. That's what got my ire up.

You guys need NFL Redzone. Even if you don't get the NFL package, Redzone is awesome.

 

[manafana]

good those broncos bottled it a bit last night, still have more to offer than patriots on their night.

Cowboys improved last night players getting fit, lee coming back will be huge boost to them down the line.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Agree on all the Brady, NE, and Manning posts. The things that were telling about PM to me were:
1. PM wearing gloves on BOTH hands. And the ball was coming out of his hand like a stone, all wobbly.
2. Denver's game plan coming in, considering weather and #1 would be an issue, was to run the ball. Normally they pass 50 times and run about 35 times a game. Last night that was flipped around. Now, I loved watching the run game because I love that part of football more than passing and love watching run blocking. Brady, OTOH, wore no glove on his throwing hand but stuck it in that warmer mit as soon as he got rid of the ball.

Really fun game to watch though. Props to NE.

Cam Newton is really becoming a leader, sounding and acting more like one this season.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Anyway, even w/o those plays, PM looked terrible, his stats do too, and he was even fumbling untouched. The legend was in his playoff-mode....

The wind also can´t excuse PM: Into the wind he was 11/23 for 93 yds (4.0 Y/A), with the wind 8/13 for 57 yds (4.4 Y/A).
OTOH Brady settled down in the 2nd half/OT, going 24/33 for 263 yds after halftime.

After all, good that the above mentioned Pens didn´t decide the outcome. Certainly the wrong team would have won....

Yeup. Bleacher report link "Bronco's Problem Starts with Peyton" explains how cold weather could be Broncs undoing in playoffs.