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NFLSTATS QUOTE:
Some recent research looked at when HFA manifests itself in games. In the NBA, HFA (or HCA rather) is strongest in the beginning of the game and then diminishes as it goes on. I found the same phenomenon in the NFL.
The bird lovers @ Advanced Stats obviously never been to a Seahawk game in the last 10 years where noise level does not go down as the game proceeds. :D
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Alpe d'Huez said:
I feel the same thing may happen to the Saints for a couple years as well.
And just when we talk the Saints, they hit No. 1 at the true power rankings.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/11/team-efficiency-rankings-week-11.html#more
From now i´ll root for them too. I like agressive, innovative teams who then have to against all odds.

My favourite NFC championship game: Philly at NO. (Ok, i know my dream pairings never fullfil. So just forget about it. Won´t happen :eek:)

Amsterhammer said:
BAL CF and Cowboys FC are my favs. TB and Bills also not bad...
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Now everyone will pick NO. That´s for certain, away game or not. So to pick the winner makes no sense unless we play a game of who comes closest to the final margin.

NO 44, ATL 10

If NO is minus 2 in turnovers, they still win the game by 24-21 (but that´s my unofficial pick).
 
FoxxyBrown1111 said:
Now everyone will pick NO. That´s for certain, away game or not. So to pick the winner makes no sense unless we play a game of who comes closest to the final margin.

NO 44, ATL 10

If NO is minus 2 in turnovers, they still win the game by 24-21 (but that´s my unofficial pick).
You stat geeks totally freak me out. But I'll play anyway, and I'll actually reverse my pick...

ATL 20-17

EDIT before kickoff: ATL 21-20
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Alpe that´s conservative. We know the Saints will win*. Would you kindly make a score call? Thanks in advance. :) ;)

(Ok, except Tri, he want´s to hit the jackpot this week... :D)
 
Jun 15, 2009
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Not this game. It doesn´t qualify for postive EV (line not big enough to go against, no backup QB, no playoffs).

... it´s just for fun. Like picking all home games.
 
Jun 15, 2009
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CBS making me laugh again. Some guy who (allegedly) watches tons of games means Glennon is wayyy better than RG3. He can judge this by what? Actually what is he watching? Questions of questions? :rolleyes:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24257294/cosell-glennon-far-more-advanced-than-rg3-playing-nfl-qb
Anyway, I did not see much of TB or WAS (who would, outside of hardcore fans or coaches?), but I have some numbers (I know QBs are only as good as talent around them, but I just make the case that RG3 is not worse than Glennon, plus both have miserable teams, so then again they are comparable a little):
RG3 7.3 Y/A, 12.2 Y/C, 5.6 Sack-Pct.;
Glennon 6.2 Y/A (one fu..ing yard per attempt less, that´s night and day in the NFL), 10.0 Y/C (I guess every QB looks good when completing only dink & dunk stuff, I can "make difficult anticipation throws" if I have to complete dump-offs to a RB), 6.4 Sack-Pct.
From only the numbers I see, even on one leg RG3 is actually better than this Glennon guy.
RG3 gets the $hi.tstorm b/c of his INT (I mean what should he have done? It was desperation time trou-out 2nd half, mistakes happen then), but no one mentions the throw a couple of plays before, so I do (watch at 3.33 mins): http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2013111706/2013/REG11/redskins@eagles#menu=highlights&tab=recap
RG3 didn´t really step into that throw (b/c of his knee I guess), and it still traveled 30 yds on a line hitting the receiver in stride.
I suspect Glennon will never be able to do that on two legs, especially not on 3rd and a mile...
 
I can tell FoxxyBrown is trying to blind me with stats (or spread sheets, or whatever), but I won't fall for them this time. :p

Anyhoo, eeny, meeny, miny, moe, here are the rest of my picks for this week...


Pittsburgh
Detroit
Green Bay
Kansas City
Chicago
Carolina
Baltimore
Houston
Indianapolis
Oakland
NY Giants
Denver
San Francisco
 
May 27, 2012
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Tricycle Rider said:
I can tell FoxxyBrown is trying to blind me with stats (or spread sheets, or whatever), but I won't fall for them this time. :p

Anyhoo, eeny, meeny, miny, moe, here are the rest of my picks for this week...


Pittsburgh
Detroit
Green Bay
Kansas City
Chicago
Carolina
Baltimore
Houston
Indianapolis
Oakland
NY Giants
Denver
San Francisco
I like the Panthers pick (I live in Charlotte and go to the home games) and the Denver pick. Everyone is talking about how Belichick and Brady are still all ****-hurt about losing Monday and will come out angry, blah, blah, blah. Denver wins, and wins easily.
 
Congrats, Stanford, I do believe you are going to the Rose Bowl!



Sorry, took yet another wrong turn and turned into college football...

But if you had seen that absolute nuclear meltdown by Oregon today I'm sure you'd probably agree.

Anyhoo, back to the NFL now.
 
Surprised everyone is going for giants. Yes giants have home field advantage but cowboys have come very close against better sides than nyg this season and are coming off a by week.

Also surprised everyone is so confident with Denver doing the business in Foxborough. Pats are unbeaten at home. Manning already lost the other big qb showdown he faced this year and that was against an easier team.

Both could go either way.

Don't know about sf at redskins. All but one on espn chose 49ers but they are on a bit of a slump and skins are still formidable at home (beat 2 real playoff contenders last 2 home games)
 

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