National Football League

[on3m@n@rmy]

It wasn't only a lot of soft zones that cost KC the win, it was the fact that once they got the last TD, on the last San Diego drive the Chiefs blitzed on one down. The rest of the time it was 3-4 men rushing, and Rivers slicing his way up the field with 5-15 yard gains. It was like Reid was willfully allowing the Chargers to get down to about the 15, and would gamble his team could stop them on a short field with very little time on the clock. That's what got my ire up.

You guys need NFL Redzone. Even if you don't get the NFL package, Redzone is awesome.

Ya, that would get hair to stand up on back of KC fans necks too. I know. I been there @ CenturyLink before Carroll came to Seattle when Seattle was @ end of Holmgren/ Mora eras, watching the Bolts march up and down the field at will with no pressure on Rivers. Not fun.

You mentioned redzone before and I spaced it coz I did not want the paid subscription. But for free, you bet.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Isn´t that boring we all agree (on PM last night)?
Anyway, the real hardcore stat geeks (those who solely depend on numbers, while I am open to all aspects) can´t accept that PM just had another meltdown under pressure. They blame it on (small) sample size, the fumbles, whatever.
Just wrote a post where I said we can´t wait for PM to play as long as Blanda so that the sample size gets big enough...

Thanks that you made the point with the gloves. Latest deep in the 3rd Qtr., PM should have accepted that he can´t throw tight spirals with a glove on his throwing hand. The ducks he threw might have stopped and DEN won...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Does Redzone have coaches film?
If not I recommend the whole package. Coaches film is just awesome...

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

No it doesn't. You need the entire NFL package for that. I had that last year, not this year. RedZone is just non-stop coverage of every game, commercial free. 7 Hours straight football. They flip back and forth to games, not showing any time outs, or dead time, or commercials, and try to capture every scoring play live. It's awesome.

Still amazed by yesterday's game. What an incredible comeback performance by the Patriots. And yes, a letdown by the Broncos. I have to think though, after this win the Pats would have to think they can beat just about anyone, if they can stay healthy.

Yeup. Bleacher report link "Bronco's Problem Starts with Peyton" explains how cold weather could be Broncs undoing in playoffs.[/URL]

This is very possible. We've seen it before, more than the big game choke. He's always been incredible against weak opposition. Good against good opposition in good conditions, and hit and miss beyond there, with the weather being a big nemesis.

I still think Seattle, or New Orleans, whomever gets HFA is heading to the SB in the NFC. Since the SB is in New York this year, that makes it interesting. I can see Manning and the Broncos making it if the chips fall in the right places, but beating either of those teams, especially Seattle, in New York in February...

 

[pedaling squares]

... I can see Manning and the Broncos making it if the chips fall in the right places, but beating either of those teams, especially Seattle, in New York in February...

Granted the guy is from the south and spent his college years in the south and his first 13 pro years in a dome, but even so the guy is just brutal in cold weather. Brutal. And I guess there's his occasional big game flop to add to that. Big game in cold weather, the guy just isn't there. Some guys (Manning) look flustered when things aren't going their way. Some guys (Brady) look focused. My brother and I called a Pats win at 0-24. We were half joking but it looked inevitable at 14-24. Welker's late warning was just icing on the cake, they were already baked at that point.

 

[The Hitch]

Surprised everyone is going for giants. Yes giants have home field advantage but cowboys have come very close against better sides than nyg this season and are coming off a by week.

Also surprised everyone is so confident with Denver doing the business in Foxborough. Pats are unbeaten at home. Manning already lost the other big qb showdown he faced this year and that was against an easier team.

Called them both, on 2 games ESPN had down as locks

Now lets see if RGIII can do the business tonight to make it 3-0

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Granted the guy is from the south and spent his college years in the south and his first 13 pro years in a dome, but even so the guy is just brutal in cold weather. Brutal...

But the guy is untouchable in the mainstream. If he wins all the praise goes to him. If he loses, it´s bad luck, drops, bad OL play, bad D, whatever. They even ignore his bad stats or explain it away.

Personally I wouldn´t blame it on the bad weather (solely). But that is debatable. Fact is he isn´t himself in big games when the going gets tough.

OTO side, the stats guys love him too. Maybe b/c the numbers he puts up (in his good games) are too beautiful. Maybe his numbers fit perfectly to all their formulas. They explain his bad games and off target throws b/c of small sample size away. And of course bad luck, and that the D is always underperforming in the games he is terrible.

Sure he got unlucky sometimes, his D sometimes let him down. But that all the bad things come together at once when he is bad in big games is just... well, maybe as reasonable as that 6 positives of another (ex-)folk hero were spiked.
I love stats too, but I am not blinded by them...

So here is a little quick stat:
8 of 12 times PMs teams lost their first playoff game. 4 of those were at home after a bye week. But more intriguing is that the Colts were favourites in 7 of that games by an average of almost 6 points!
I am curious to know if any other team had such bad luck. I doubt. Luck/randomness can explain many things. But here we have a pattern. The guy melts under pressure (BTW, in his SB winning season all but one half was aided by a lot of D help. Actually that post season "his" D was better than the PM led O, compared to the league average. It should be explained in that context that the O more often than not performs better than the D).

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Despite easily taking out Washington, the 49ers still have work to do, and can only hope Michael Crabtree gives them speed they need on the outside. But it seemed to me that Colin Kaepernick wasn't all that accurate in his passes. It's like the best strength of Alex Smith was lost when the Niners didn't want him anymore.

Mid-week update says not great news for Seattle. Brandon Browner who had been out anyway with a groin injury has been slapped with a 1-year suspension for PED use. His back-up, Walter Thurmon has also been given a 4 game suspension. Golden Tate called their actions "selfish". I'd like to add "idiotic". Seattle signed former 49er Perrish Cox to replace him. The interesting thing is that they may also sign Antoine Winfield who was supposed to compete for a starting job after a good career in Minnesota, but Pete Carroll cut him and no one picked him up.

Matt Flynn gets the go for the Packers tomorrow, with Aaron Rodgers blessing. Considering he helped wipe out a 27-7 deficit and almost led Green Bay to victory last week, the Packers have to be smiling. But we'll see just how well he really does against a pretty mediocre Detroit secondary.

Cleveland is in such a hole on offense. Brandon Weeden may have a strong arm, but makes way too many mistakes. Yet, every time they replace him, the replacement gets hurt (Hoyer, Wallace, Campbell). They have now signed Alex Tanny, another strong armed QB famous for his YouTube video.

Chris Canty of the Ravens says RGIII isn't fully healthy and thus making mistakes and the Redskins should be playing Kirk Cousins. I've felt this way since about week 1. But it's not going to happen. Several of us said after he got hurt last year he has to be a pocket passer, he can no longer run and dazzle like last year.

Looking at the playoff picture in the NFC, the Seahawks appear to be in the drivers seat. If they win this week hosting New Orleans, they should all but lock the #1 seed and HFA. They have two more somewhat tough games, at SF and hosting Arizona. But they could easily lose those and finish 13-3 and get HFA. They could also win out and end up 15-1. The Saints on the other hand have the toughest schedule. At Seattle, and two games against Carolina. If Carolina wins out, and NO Loses at Seattle, the Panthers will win the division and a bye with the #2 seed. But as much as I like them, I think the Saints are a better coached team with a better QB and more experience. Tomorrow's GB-Det game will go a long way to show who will win the NFC North. A fantastic game this weekend with playoff implications is also Arizona at Philly. Both teams are on a roll. Philly wins and it's a big step towards the division title. Cards win and they have a serious shot at a wildcard.

Houston may go 2-14. They play New England, at Jacksonville, at the Colts, Denver, and at Tennessee. They may only be able to beat the Jags, maybe. With all the talent the Texans have, if this doesn't fire Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips, nothing will.

Poor Steve Hartman on Fox radio. At the start of the season he picked the Texans to win the Superbowl over the Falcons!

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

An obvious agree on Moron Browner. He will be done for good in Seattle. Seattle has a couple other options, but Thurmond taking his medicine now means he will be available for the playoffs.

All the talk about Shanny's job in Washington... before I started looking there I'd look at looking at ways to help RG3 and in particular, the O-Line. They are not protecting him at all. For starters, RT Polumbus is a Seattle castaway who could not even be a backup in Seattle.

A little interesting NFL history was on NFL network last week. They were talking about all kinds of things, but with all the talk now of player safety (leaving some to think the dangerous aspect of the sport is merely recent history) consider this: in 1905 there were 19 football fatalities nationwide. So brutality was present in the game from the game's early history as well. President Teddy Roosevelt was so in love with the game that he made this famous quote: "In doing your work in the great world, it is a safe plan to follow a rule I once heard on the football field: Don't flinch, don't fall; hit the line hard". And that's pretty much how they played the game, nothing but running and punting, no passing, and the runs were all straight ahead full bore into the line. So they also did a lot of punting for field position. Roosevelt was so in love with the game he proposed (to football legend Walter Camp, and others) implementing passing to... help reduce the brutality of the running game.

 

[The Hitch]

Houston may go 2-14. They play New England, at Jacksonville, at the Colts, Denver, and at Tennessee. They may only be able to beat the Jags, maybe. With all the talent the Texans have, if this doesn't fire Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips, nothing will.

Poor Steve Hartman on Fox radio. At the start of the season he picked the Texans to win the Superbowl over the Falcons!

They had some very close losses they should have won like Seahawks and Colts where missing fieldgoals cost them. I suspect if those had gone their way maybe they wouldn't be so pathetic now.

I do wonder if they will keep Keenum as the quarterback or take a quarterback in the draft with what looks destined to be a very early draft choice.

 

[pedaling squares]

Personally I wouldn´t blame it on the bad weather (solely). But that is debatable. Fact is he isn´t himself in big games when the going gets tough.

I agree with that, the game in Indianapolis is a good example of that. Ravens playoff game too. When the pressure goes up (and often when the temperature goes down), Peyton's game tends to suffer. I think he's earned the hype though, he's been so brilliant for so long that it's easy to take him for granted and blow mistakes out of proportion. There are plenty of examples of him playing well in big games, but there are enough examples of him playing poorly (by his lofty standards) to make a case for him being susceptible to pressure.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

GB@DET - Flynn belongs in GB, but it's not enough.
OAK@DAL - Dallas very well could lose this game.
PIT@BAL - Steelers slowly improving every week.

JAX@CLE - Home team.
TEN@IND - Colts struggling, but at home.
CHI@MIN - Bears better overall team.
MIA@NYJ - Jets descent continues.
ARI@PHI - A game to watch. Cards defense better than anything Philly has seen in weeks.
TB@CAR - Bucs improving, but Panthers still better.
NE@HOU - Best coach vs. worst coach. Do the math.
ATL@BUF - Bills not great, Falcons better than record, but picked home team.
STL@SF - St.L gave Niners fits last year. But that was last year.
DEN@KC - Chiefs still a 6-4 team, missing players. Nice KC weather helps PM.
CIN@SD - The Chargers could win this the way they beat KC.
NYG@WAS - Crummy game of the week. As bad as Giants are, Wash has no defense and poor OL.
NO@SEA - If Seahawks are going to lose a home game this year, this is it. NO must win, Seattle missing CBs, Brees will attack secondary, and Seahawks can (barely) afford to lose.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

It's Thanksgiving Day for us Yanks today, other than giving the dog a bath I have no plans but to catch some of today's football games. Wonder if the teams get paid holiday overtime... just kidding.

Anyhoo, Happy Thanksgiving, and, I'll just go with all the home teams.


Detroit
Dallas
Baltimore

 

[Amsterhammer]

Happy holiday to all. Don't eat too much.

GB&DET - major upset if the Lions don't take this.
OAK@DAL -agree with Alpe, could go the other way if Romo......
PIT&BAL - I think the Ravens will be out for revenge.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Now that my dog is having a conniption because I gave him a bath I've decided to change my pick to Pittsburgh... each time it's time to dry him off I say: Here comes the terrible towel.

So then one thought leads to another, the Steelers, of course, have their Terrible Towel.

I'm afraid this is about as scientific (and stat-like) as my picks get. If the Steelers lose I'll blame the dog.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

detroit
oakland
baltimore

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

...I've decided to change my pick to Pittsburgh... each time it's time to dry him off I say: Here comes the terrible towel...I'm afraid this is about as scientific (and stat-like) as my picks get. If the Steelers lose I'll blame the dog.

adding another 10

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Too many yellow flags in that Detroit game already.

Come on, guys, keep it cool. Nobody wants to see any one of your mates/ colleagues crippled.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Never seeen this:
DET outgains GB by 500 yds (563 to 64 w/3+ mins to play)

NFL team vs NCAA Div. II game. I thought college vs NFL games are gone since the 60s

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I am too late, but pick all home teams (except NE)

 

[manafana]

the packers line wasnt their today,

really do believe the steelers have it in them to beat ravens and keep alive play off hopes.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Geez, why giving up a 56 pass in the last minute? W/o it, the yd differential would have been the 4th highest ever at 491.

Top5:
1 RAM 1951 vs. NYY W 54-14 (+ 611 yds)
2 GNB 1962 vs. PHI W 49-0 (+ 574 yds)
3 CHI 1943 vs. NYG W 56-7 (+ 525 yds)
4 RAM 1976 vs. ATL W 59-0 (+ 488 yds)
5 RAM 1979 vs. SEA W 24-0 (+ 482 yds)
6 RAM 1966 vs. NYG W 55-14 (+ 469 yds)

Needless to say, but I say it anyway: Since GB stopped playing, season is over...

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Now that my dog is having a conniption because I gave him a bath I've decided to change my pick to Pittsburgh... each time it's time to dry him off I say: Here comes the terrible towel.

So then one thought leads to another, the Steelers, of course, have their Terrible Towel.

I'm afraid this is about as scientific (and stat-like) as my picks get. If the Steelers lose I'll blame the dog.

I like your methodology. My cats want the birds so I pick the Raves.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Meltdowns by several teams. Oregon, Baylor, Texas A&M...

How about this logic: WSU beat USC, USC beat Stanford, Stanford beat Oregon. So, WSU is the best team in the Pac-12. (I conveniently left off who all beat WSU, like Oregon State).

Kidding aside, a question> After the SEC (clearly the strongest D-I conference) is the PAC-12 the second strongest conference in the nation now? I'm beginning to think so.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Happy FG kicking by BAL. They may come away with it. But it´s nothing to be proud of it...